鲍威尔的史诗级抉择：通胀与就业的跷跷板游戏 全球金融市场正经历一场剧烈震荡，其导火索是美国劳工统计局（BLS）对过去两个月就业数据的惊人修正：25.8万个岗位被砍掉！这一消息犹如一颗重磅 炸弹，引爆了市场恐慌，黄金价格飙升，股市暴跌，而美联储主席鲍威尔则被推到了一个极其棘手的十字路口——在通胀与就业之间，他该如何选择？ 这并非简单的数字游戏。BLS的报告显示7月份非农就业人数仅增长7.3万，远低于预期的10.4万，更是创下2024年10月以来的最低值。更令人震惊的是，对5 月和6月数据的修正，将这两个月的就业增长减少了25.8万。这一前所未有的下调幅度，引发了市场对数据可靠性的严重质疑，甚至有交易员直接指责数 据"造假"。 这一"黑天鹅"事件迅速引发了金融市场的连锁反应：美国股市如同断线的风筝，道琼斯指数暴跌逾千点；欧洲股市也纷纷跳水；美元指数跌破 100点，反映出全球投资者对美国经济信心正在迅速萎缩。 然而，鲍威尔的处境极其艰难。降息固然能刺激就业，但鉴于特朗普政府实施的高额关税政策已推高物价，降息很可能加剧通胀，使美国经济面临"滞胀"的 风险。6月份的PCE数据已证实通胀正在恶化，而非好转。 不降息则意味 ...

JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 场的准确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 正如在先前文章中阐述的，笔者并不认为美国经济的通货膨胀会大幅反弹，相比之下美国经济面临的更 大的风险是下行，甚至是加速下行。当美国经济加速下行的局面已经出现时，美联储再加速降息也于事 无补，杯水车薪。 7月31日公布的数据显示，美国6月PCE物价指数年率从前值2.4%升至2.6%，6月PCE物价指数月率也从 前值0.2%升至0.3%。同时公布的美国6月核心PCE物价指数年率与上月持平，为2.8%，6月核心PCE物价 指数月率则从前值0.2%升至0.3%。 一旦美国经济出现严重恶化的局面，美国资本市场也会被拖累，股票市场会出现动荡加剧的局面，同时 美国经济的动荡也会波及全球范围内的各个主要经济体。 上述最新的美国6月PCE数据出现小幅反弹，这说明美国经济的通货膨胀存在粘滞，甚至有反弹的风 险。这势必使得美联储在重启降息的决策中更加谨慎，也在一定程度上降低了美联储在9月议息会议上 重启降息的可能性。 不过，市场普遍认为当前美国经济增长乏力，甚 ...

Employment Data Insights - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, an increase of 3,000 from May, marking the second-highest monthly gain of the year[3] - The unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, down from a three-month plateau[3] - The average hourly wage growth slowed by 0.1 percentage points to 3.7% year-on-year, indicating a lack of strong upward pressure on wages[3] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 62.3%, the lowest level in 2023, reflecting a continued decrease in labor supply[3] - Government employment surged by 73,000 in June, the highest increase in 15 months, while private sector job growth showed signs of cooling[3] - Job additions in the education and healthcare sectors were 51,000 and 20,000, respectively, both lower than the previous month[3] Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Implications - The necessity for short-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has significantly decreased due to strong employment data[3] - Future inflation levels will be influenced by fiscal stimulus effects and tariff directions, potentially leading to a steeper inflation trajectory[3] - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful Act" aims to stabilize consumer demand and enhance domestic manufacturing, which could tighten the labor market[3] Risks and Considerations - The potential for the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts remains, as the labor market shows mixed signals[4] - The dollar index is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of the year, influenced by the evolving economic landscape[3]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell maintains flexibility regarding interest rate decisions, indicating a shift in factors influencing potential rate cuts [1] Group 1 - Powell avoided a direct question about the possibility of a rate cut in July, suggesting that it is inappropriate to overly focus on this month's decision [1] - Recent comments from Powell and others indicate a subtle change in tone, moving away from an immediate need for rate cuts [1] - Speculation arose that significant price increases post-tariff removal might necessitate a substantial weakening in the labor market before considering rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The recent pause on tariffs and early inflation readings have not shown meaningful impacts, leading Powell to suggest that if inflation concerns are not severe, rate cuts may be reconsidered [1]

美联储维持利率不变，关税风险使其陷入两难抉择。 "等待观察"成为美联储新口头禅 根据文章的数据，鲍威尔在周三的新闻发布会上使用了11次"有待观察（wait and see）"这一表述，清 晰传达了美联储当前的政策立场。 周三，美联储再次决定暂停降息，鲍威尔会后重申不急于行动的立场。有"新美联储通讯社"之称的知名 财经记者Nick Timiraos发表最新报道称，Fed正面临一个艰难的抉择，需要决定是更关注通货膨胀上升 的风险，还是更关注失业率上升的风险。 Timiraos指出，这使得美联储面临更多不确定性——过早降息可能导致通胀预期失控，等待太久则可能 导致经济衰退。 Peterson国际经济研究所所长Adam Posen警告说，现在过快降息会增加美联储几个月后不得不逆转政 策、加息的风险。去年，特朗普的多位盟友就曾批评称，美联储过快降息正在刺激更持久的通胀风险。 "这是非常具有讽刺意味的，坦率地说，对于政府内部或接近政府的人来说，他们批评美联 储的通胀率太高，以至于也认为关税冲击不会对通胀产生任何影响，这是自相矛盾的。" 日本最大银行三菱日联银行的美国宏观战略主管George Goncalves表达了另一种 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities indicates that the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cut decisions will depend on the outcomes of tariff negotiations and actual economic data, particularly employment data [1] Group 1: Economic Data Analysis - Recent soft data in the U.S. has shown overall weakness, while hard data remains robust [1] - The Federal Reserve maintains a wait-and-see approach, not rushing to cut rates, and plans to act once the situation becomes clearer [1] - Future interest rate cut decisions will primarily depend on the trends in hard data, especially employment figures [1] Group 2: Employment and Inflation Outlook - If employment data weakens significantly before the June meeting, and inflation pressure remains manageable in April and May, there is a probability of a rate cut in June [1] - Conversely, if conditions do not align, the decision for a rate cut may be postponed until July or later [1] Group 3: Focus Areas - Continued attention will be on changes in U.S. tariff policies and hard data, including employment figures, to assess the Federal Reserve's rate cut decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dilemma faced by the Federal Reserve in responding to the Trump administration's tariff policies, suggesting that the Fed may delay interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve is in a "goalkeeper's dilemma," where maintaining interest rates to combat inflation could further slow the economy, while cutting rates to stimulate growth may exacerbate short-term inflation pressures caused by tariffs or supply shortages [1][2]. - The Fed is likely to prioritize "inflation control" in its decision-making process, especially in light of potential price increases from tariffs [2][4]. Group 2: Labor Market and Interest Rate Decisions - The Fed will closely monitor labor market changes, using employment data as a critical reference for its decisions. It will not preemptively cut rates based on anticipated economic slowdown without clear data [2][3]. - If there are clear signs of labor market deterioration, the Fed may be prepared to act, but the extent of inflation will be a limiting factor in its decision to lower rates [5][9]. Group 3: Inflation Expectations Management - Managing inflation expectations is crucial for the Fed, as stable expectations can lower the cost of controlling inflation. If expectations become unanchored, it will be more challenging to manage inflation [5][6]. - The Fed's communication strategy has become more complex due to public criticism from Trump, necessitating a cautious approach to guide market expectations [7][8]. Group 4: Divergence Among Fed Officials - There is a division among Fed officials regarding whether the price increases from tariffs will be temporary. Some believe that without the tariff-induced price pressures, the Fed might have already begun cutting rates [9][11]. - Former Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren suggests that the Fed should cut rates in response to economic weakness, as rate cuts can help offset weak demand but do not address supply chain issues [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dilemma faced by the Federal Reserve in responding to the "hasty" tariff policies of the Trump administration, suggesting that the Fed may pause interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve is in a "goalkeeper's dilemma," where maintaining interest rates to combat inflation could further slow the economy, while cutting rates to stimulate growth may exacerbate short-term inflation pressures caused by tariffs or supply shortages [1][2]. - The Fed is closely monitoring labor market changes, with employment data being a crucial reference for decision-making [1][3]. Group 2: Tariffs and Economic Activity - Tariffs may force the Fed to take a more cautious approach, as they could temporarily raise prices and slow economic activity, leading to signs of stagflation [2]. - A key challenge is determining the duration and magnitude of price increases caused by tariffs and potential supply disruptions [2][6]. Group 3: Inflation Expectations Management - Managing inflation expectations is critical for the Fed's communication strategy, especially in a dual challenge of recession and inflation pressures [3]. - If consumers and businesses expect inflation to decline, it can stabilize inflation expectations, making it easier to control inflation [3]. Group 4: Divergence Among Fed Officials - There is a consensus among Fed officials that rate cuts are inappropriate until clear signs of consumer spending slowdown and rising unemployment are observed [6]. - However, there are differing views on whether the price increases from tariffs will be temporary, with some officials suggesting that rate cuts may be necessary if demand weakens significantly [6].

Inflation Data Summary - In March 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year and decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, while core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month, both falling more than market expectations[2][12]. - Energy inflation continued to decline, with energy prices dropping by 3.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points from February, while food prices rose by 3.0% year-on-year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from February[3][17]. Economic Outlook - The March CPI data indicates a significant decline in inflation, particularly in core services, suggesting a slowdown in US economic activity[4][30]. - The implementation of Trump's tariff policies is expected to increase price pressures in the future, leading to heightened uncertainty regarding the direction of inflation[4][30]. Federal Reserve Implications - Despite the unexpected decline in inflation, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious approach due to the ongoing effects of tariff policies and the current inflation levels not meeting their target[5][37]. - The Fed may consider 2-3 rate cuts in 2025, with the next potential cut possibly occurring in June or later, depending on the progress of tariff negotiations[6][40]. Market Impact - The US stock market may still face downward pressure, as the overall tariff rates remain significantly higher than the average rate of 2.3% in 2024, potentially leading to continued economic weakness[5][40]. - The uncertainty surrounding inflation and economic conditions suggests that the market may not recover quickly, and further declines could occur[5][39].