【12月31日，美联储会议纪要透露降息及官员分歧情况】12月会议上，FOMC同意降息，官员就美国面 临的风险深入辩论。即便支持降息的官员，也承认降息是权衡利弊的结果，有人本可能支持维持目标利 率区间不变。 部分与会者称，下调利率区间后，可能需一段时间维持目标利率不变。若通胀逐步下 降，多数官员认为进一步降息合适。 会议纪要显示，美联储官员存在分歧，凸显决策难度。这种不寻 常结果已连续两次会议出现。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

近日，新美联储通讯社Nick Timiraos发表文章《美联储主席鲍威尔的盟友为12月降息铺路》，揭示了美 联储内部对于12月是否降息的重大分歧。鲍威尔本人似乎更倾向于"先降一次，再放慢节奏"的策略，而 他的两位核心盟友也公开支持这一观点。 面对即将到来的12月会议，鲍威尔目前有两条可能的路线选择，但每一条都有其风险。第一条路线是12 月降息，这与市场当前的预期一致。这种方式的优点在于可以缓解市场的紧张情绪，并及时对冲劳动力 市场的风险。然而，这一决策可能会引发委员会内的多个反对票，甚至创下30年来最多"反对票"的记 录。第二条路线则是12月不降息，等到明年1月再做决定。这种方式的优点是可以避免过早降息的风 险，但缺点是市场可能会因此感到失望，进而加速下跌。Nick Timiraos在文章中特别提到了2019年 的"先降息，再暂停"的类比，暗示鲍威尔可能会采取类似的策略。 在此次决策过程中，鲍威尔得到了两位核心盟友的支持。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯和旧金山联储主席戴利 分别发表了支持降息的观点。威廉姆斯上周五表示，短期仍有降息空间，暗示了他对降息的支持。而戴 利则在本周一明确表示支持12月降息。这两位联储官员在美联 ...

新华财经北京11月25日电（崔凯）美联储正面临近年来最复杂、最不确定的政策环境。在9月和10月连 续两次降息后，是否于12月实施第三次降息，已成为全球金融市场关注的焦点。与以往不同的是，此次 决策不仅受经济数据驱动，更被联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）内部日益公开化的深刻分歧所裹挟。围 绕"就业风险"与"通胀粘性"的激烈辩论，正在重塑美联储的沟通机制与决策逻辑。 过去一周，市场对12月降息的预期经历了剧烈波动：交易员押注的概率从约42%一度跌至35.4%，又在 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯21日发表鸽派言论后迅速攀升至76%。其"短期内仍有进一步调整利率空间"的表 态，被广泛解读为高层协调后的政策信号——这不仅反映出立场变化，更凸显了当前决策的高度敏感 性。 政策背景：降息周期已启，但路径存疑 自开启本轮降息周期以来，美联储已将联邦基金利率目标区间下调50个基点，至3.75%–4.00%。此举主 要旨在应对劳动力市场的疲软迹象。然而，通胀压力仍未完全消退：截至9月，美国消费者价格指数 （CPI）同比上涨3.0%，核心个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数仍维持在约2.8%的高位，距离2%的长期目 标尚有差距。 美联储陷入典型的 ...

瑞银近日警告称，美联储12月的利率会议时间安排正面临罕见而尴尬的局面：原定于 12月10日 召开的 FOMC政策会议，将在两份关键就业报告发布之前举行，而这些就业数据是评估是否启动降息的核心 依据。在非农报告缺位的情况下，一些市场人士甚至开始讨论，美联储是否会罕见地推迟会议一周，以 在掌握最新劳动力市场数据后再作决定。 就业数据缺失引发会议推迟猜测 此次时间冲突源于美国劳工统计局宣布：由于10月家庭调查无法按规定采集，导致失业率等关键指标无 法计算，10月非农被迫取消，其中部分数据将并入 12月16日 公布的11月非农报告。 瑞银认为，若会议确实延期，短期会推升政策不确定性，但从信息质量角度看，可能让决策更为稳妥。 这意味着，如果FOMC按原计划于12月10日开会，委员们将同时缺少10月与11月两份劳动力市场报告， 而这对于判断经济状况至关重要。 瑞银指出，历史上单份非农报告都足以改变政策路径，而本次缺失两份，风险尤甚。虽然会议日期变更 极为少见，但并非前所未有——1971年与1974年，美联储就曾因特殊环境推迟会议。从法律层面看，美 联储法案只要求FOMC 每年至少开四次会，并未规定会议日期不可调整，因此推 ...

Core Viewpoint - The timing of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December is under scrutiny due to the release of key employment reports, which may lead to a potential postponement of the meeting to ensure better data for decision-making [2][4][19] Group 1: Meeting Timing and Employment Data - The FOMC meeting is scheduled for December 9-10, but two crucial employment reports will be released on December 16, creating a conflict that may prompt a one-week delay [2][5] - Historical precedents exist for adjusting meeting dates, with past instances in 1971 and 1974 where meetings were postponed due to special circumstances [14] - The current meeting schedule is the earliest since 2003, and even a delay to December 16-17 would still fall within historical norms for December meetings [14] Group 2: Internal Disagreements and Policy Implications - There is a notable division among FOMC members regarding a potential rate cut in December, with some advocating for a 25 basis point reduction while others believe it may not be necessary [3][18] - This internal disagreement heightens the importance of the meeting's timing, as decisions made without complete data could lead to significant policy misjudgments [3][18] - If the meeting is postponed, it may provide clearer signals regarding the Fed's policy direction, while maintaining the original schedule could indicate a consensus on the need to act despite incomplete data [19] Group 3: Labor Market Indicators - Recent employment data shows signs of weakness, with private sector job growth at only 97,000 in September, raising concerns about the labor market [8] - The leading labor market indicator from UBS fell to 75% in September from 88% in August, suggesting a potential increase in job losses [8] - The focus on labor market data is critical for the Fed's decision-making, as historical trends indicate that single employment reports can significantly influence monetary policy [13]

当地时间11月20日 ，美国劳工统计局发布9月非农就业数据，数据显示 美国9月非农就业人数增加11.9万人 ，市场预估为增加5.2万人，前值 为增加2.2万人。除这一核心就业数据外，劳工统计局还指出，美国失业率小幅攀升至4.4%，创下2021年10月以来的最高水平。当月平均时薪 环比上涨 0.2%，同比上涨3.8%，而此前对应的预期涨幅分别为0.3%和3.7%。 就业报告发布后，美国短期利率期货上涨。就业报告发布后，美国短期利率期货上涨。 英国金融时评美国9月非农报告指出，美国劳动力市场意外反弹，这将使美联储关于下月是否降息的决策更趋复杂。周四公布的9月新增非农 人口录得11.9万人，不仅高于机构调查经济学家预测的5万人，也显著高于8月修正后的2.2万人。失业率则从8月的4.3%升至4.4%，创2021年 以来新高。这份报告是自美国联邦政府创纪录停摆导致官方数据中断发布以来，美国劳工统计局发布的首个经济健康指标。意外向好的数据 将强化联邦公开市场委员会鹰派成员的立场，他们始终警告美联储不宜过快降息。尽管美国总统特朗普长期施压美联储降息，但央行内部已 出现深刻分歧：一派主张在12月会议继续降息以支撑劳动力市场， ...

英国金融时评美国9月非农报告指出，美国劳动力市场意外反弹，这将使美联储关于下月是否降息的决 策更趋复杂。周四公布的9月新增非农人口录得11.9万人，不仅高于机构调查经济学家预测的5万人，也 显著高于8月修正后的2.2万人。失业率则从8月的4.3%升至4.4%，创2021年以来新高。这份报告是自美 国联邦政府创纪录停摆导致官方数据中断发布以来，美国劳工统计局发布的首个经济健康指标。意外向 好的数据将强化联邦公开市场委员会鹰派成员的立场，他们始终警告美联储不宜过快降息。数据公布 后，美国国债收益率与美元指数双双走低。尽管美国总统特朗普长期施压美联储降息，但央行内部已出 现深刻分歧：一派主张在12月会议继续降息以支撑劳动力市场，另一派则担忧可能加剧通胀风险。政府 停摆使美联储决策雪上加霜——常规经济报告发布中断，劳工统计局周三更宣布因停摆期间数据收集工 作停滞，将不再单独发布10月就业报告，部分数据将合并至11月报告发布。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is causing significant delays in the release of key economic data, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process for the upcoming December meeting [1][2][5]. Group 1: Economic Data Delays - The release of the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) is at risk of being completely abandoned due to the shutdown, which has also delayed two monthly employment reports [1][2]. - The absence of official inflation and employment data will prolong and complicate the Federal Reserve's internal debates regarding the necessity of another rate cut in December [2][5]. Group 2: Impact on Federal Reserve Decisions - Despite market expectations leaning towards a rate cut in December, the lack of official data may provide policymakers concerned about inflation a valid reason to maintain current rates [3][5]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, especially for members focused on the risks of rising inflation [5]. Group 3: Alternative Indicators - In the absence of official data, some private sector employment reports are helping to fill the gaps, but alternative indicators for inflation are harder to obtain and less comprehensive [7]. - The Cleveland Fed's "nowcast" model suggests that the year-over-year increase in October CPI may be similar to September's lower-than-expected 3% [8]. Group 4: Future Scenarios - Various scenarios have been proposed regarding the potential recovery of data and its implications for policy decisions: - Scenario 1: If only a "stale" September employment report is available before the December meeting, it is unlikely to convince Powell to pause rate cuts [10]. - Scenario 2: If both September and October employment reports are released, and the unemployment rate remains stable at 4.3%, a pause in rate cuts becomes a possibility [11]. - Scenario 3: If three complete employment reports are available, with November's unemployment rate at or below 4.3%, the Fed may maintain rates; if above 4.5%, a cut is likely [11].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market data is currently lacking due to the government shutdown, which has delayed the release of the October non-farm payroll report, impacting the Federal Reserve's decision-making for potential interest rate cuts in December [1] Group 1: Labor Market Insights - The October non-farm payroll report was not released as scheduled due to the government shutdown, marking the second consecutive absence of this report [1] - Economists had previously anticipated a reduction of 60,000 jobs in October, with the unemployment rate expected to rise to 4.5% [1] - A report from an employment consulting firm indicated that U.S. companies announced over 153,000 layoffs in October, the highest level for this period in over 20 years and the most layoffs in a single month for the fourth quarter since 2008 [1]

Group 1 - Global markets are experiencing synchronized declines, with significant adjustments in East Asian markets, particularly Japan down 1.7% and South Korea down 2.2% [3] - The primary trigger for this global downturn is linked to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with concerns about inflation potentially leading to a pause in rate cuts or even speculation about a return to a rate hike cycle [3] - If the Fed pauses rate cuts or raises rates, it would tighten liquidity, which is crucial for maintaining or advancing current high stock market levels [3] Group 2 - The overall market reaction indicates a chain impact on various asset classes, with stock markets responding first, a strong dollar approaching the 100 mark, and precious metals like gold and silver facing pressure [3] - U.S. Treasury yields are rising, indicating a reverse correlation with bond prices, which are also under pressure [3]