美国国会预算办公室（CBO）周四预测，美联储可能会将利率再调降一点以 "应对劳动力市场的下行风 险"，然后就此打住，关税的提高和特朗普政府减税政策推动的需求增长预计将在未来几年内使通胀率 保持在联储2%的目标之上。 来源：滚动播报 ...

近几个月来，对劳动力市场的担忧一直压抑着消费者情绪。密歇根大学12月份的初步调查显示，大多数 受访者预计未来一年失业率将会上升。 美联储官员当地时间周三连续第三次会议下调利率，以支持美联储主席鲍威尔所谓的"逐渐降温"的劳动 力市场。虽然官员们在明年（2025年）的预测中并未像9月份那样预计失业率会上升，但鲍威尔表示， 就业市场面临着"重大"下行风险。 继感恩节假期周大幅下降之后，上周美国初请失业金人数创下自新冠疫情爆发以来的最大增幅。 根据劳工部周四公布的数据，在截至12月6日的一周内，初请失业金人数增加了4.4万人，达到23.6万 人。这是自2020年3月以来的最大增幅，而在前一周，该数字曾创下三年多来的最低水平。这一数字超 过了经济学家22万的预测。 初请失业金人数通常在假期前后波动较大，并且可能会持续波动至年底，但周四的数据处于今年的高位 区间。百事可乐和惠普等公司最近几周已公布了减少员工数量的计划，而10月份全国范围内的裁员人数 也是自2023年初以来的最高水平。 用于平滑波动性的指标——新申请人数的四周移动平均值，上周微升至21.67万人。 在未经季节性因素调整之前，上周初请失业金人数激增近11.5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The timing of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December is under scrutiny due to the release of key employment reports, which may lead to a potential postponement of the meeting to ensure better data for decision-making [2][4][19] Group 1: Meeting Timing and Employment Data - The FOMC meeting is scheduled for December 9-10, but two crucial employment reports will be released on December 16, creating a conflict that may prompt a one-week delay [2][5] - Historical precedents exist for adjusting meeting dates, with past instances in 1971 and 1974 where meetings were postponed due to special circumstances [14] - The current meeting schedule is the earliest since 2003, and even a delay to December 16-17 would still fall within historical norms for December meetings [14] Group 2: Internal Disagreements and Policy Implications - There is a notable division among FOMC members regarding a potential rate cut in December, with some advocating for a 25 basis point reduction while others believe it may not be necessary [3][18] - This internal disagreement heightens the importance of the meeting's timing, as decisions made without complete data could lead to significant policy misjudgments [3][18] - If the meeting is postponed, it may provide clearer signals regarding the Fed's policy direction, while maintaining the original schedule could indicate a consensus on the need to act despite incomplete data [19] Group 3: Labor Market Indicators - Recent employment data shows signs of weakness, with private sector job growth at only 97,000 in September, raising concerns about the labor market [8] - The leading labor market indicator from UBS fell to 75% in September from 88% in August, suggesting a potential increase in job losses [8] - The focus on labor market data is critical for the Fed's decision-making, as historical trends indicate that single employment reports can significantly influence monetary policy [13]

CNBC的记者Steve Liesman在鲍威尔出席全美商业经济协会会议后发表了一段耐人寻味的评论：在问答 环节听到一个耐人寻味的问题。9月份的就业报告已经完成了，我只能说走廊里正流传着些小道消息， 都在问"鲍威尔拿到就业报告了吗？美联储拿到报告了吗？"我们不得而知，他本人并未透露，但我们总 觉得他可能——大概率已经拿到手了。美国财经网站investinglive的分析师Adam Button亦表示，鲍威尔 的发言似乎也在暗示报告内容：自7月会议以来的数据显示，劳动力市场已大幅走软；就业增长的平衡 水平显著下降；劳动力市场存在明显的下行风险。Adam Button猜测，从这些表态来看，报告可能相当 糟糕。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The Indian Rupee (INR) has weakened against the US Dollar (USD), reaching around 87.60, despite a general dollar sell-off following dovish signals from the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [2][3] - Powell indicated that the current economic conditions may warrant adjustments to monetary policy, citing increasing downside risks in the labor market [2][3] - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and India are negatively impacting the performance of the Indian Rupee, preventing it from capitalizing on the dollar's weakness [2][3] Group 2 - The US is expected to increase tariffs on Indian goods to 50%, the highest rate among all trade partners, which could reduce the competitiveness of Indian products in global markets [4] - The Indian government is implementing tax cuts to mitigate the impact of global trade risks and boost domestic consumption, with new Goods and Services Tax (GST) reforms anticipated before the Diwali festival [4] - Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been withdrawing from the Indian stock market, with a total divestment of ₹257.51 billion in August, contributing to the pressure on the Indian Rupee [4] Group 3 - The Indian stock market initially rose due to the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, but the Nifty50 index is struggling to maintain a critical support level of 24,900 points [4] - The upcoming release of the second-quarter GDP data is expected to be a key catalyst for the Indian Rupee's performance, with the first quarter showing an annualized growth rate of 7.4% [4] Group 4 - Technical analysis indicates that the USD/INR pair remains above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at approximately 87.35, suggesting a bullish short-term trend [5] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded from the 50.00 level, and a breakthrough above 60.00 could generate new bullish momentum [6] - Key support for the currency pair is at the July 28 low of 86.55, while resistance is noted at the August 5 high of 88.25 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has paved the way for a rate cut in September, but the key factor remains the upcoming non-farm payroll data, which will provide decisive guidance on the pace and magnitude of the rate cuts [2][11]. Employment Data Concerns - Goldman Sachs expresses concerns regarding future employment growth revisions, citing several reasons: the birth-death model may be overly optimistic, historical data revisions during economic slowdowns tend to be negative, ADP data raises questions about healthcare employment growth, and household surveys currently overestimate immigration and employment growth [4]. - The firm highlights that the pace of employment growth outside a few industries has nearly reached zero, indicating significant uncertainty regarding balanced employment growth [5]. Rate Cut Path Dependent on Labor Market Performance - The window for a more pronounced slowdown in employment data is currently open, with Goldman Sachs noting that if the next two data releases show improvement, the current weakness may be a temporary fluctuation [8]. - The market's heightened focus on the August non-farm data is concerning, especially given the scale of previous data revisions [8]. Rate Cut Cycle Completion - Goldman Sachs believes that regardless of whether the economy slows or normalizes, there is a strong likelihood that the rate cut cycle will conclude before the next Federal Reserve Chairman takes office, which is expected to be by mid-2026 [10][11].

Core Insights - The core message from Powell's speech at Jackson Hole is not unconditional easing but a careful balancing act between a weakening labor market and persistent inflation risks [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Context - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate is under pressure, with low unemployment rates juxtaposed against a labor market showing signs of strain [2][3] - Powell indicated that the current policy rate is closer to neutral, allowing for cautious actions, but warned that monetary policy is not on a predetermined path [2][3] Group 2: Labor Market Concerns - The labor market is experiencing a "peculiar balance" with both supply and demand slowing significantly, partly due to tightened immigration policies [3][4] - Powell highlighted the rising risks of job losses and increased unemployment rates, suggesting that any rate cuts would be defensive rather than indicative of a strong economy [4] Group 3: Inflation Challenges - Inflation remains a concern, with economists worried that tariffs from the Trump administration could elevate prices in the coming months [5] - Powell seems to lean towards ignoring the impact of tariffs, although he acknowledges the need to monitor inflation expectations closely [5] Group 4: Market Reactions - The market's enthusiastic response to Powell's speech may have been exaggerated, reflecting prior expectations of a more hawkish stance [6] - Powell's remarks did not yield to political pressures for significant rate cuts, indicating a commitment to data-driven decision-making [6]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the U.S. labor market is experiencing an "unusual balance," with both supply and demand slowing, which poses downside risks to employment [1][2] Group 1: Labor Market Insights - Powell highlighted that the July employment data was revised down, showing an increase of only 73,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 115,000 [2] - The revisions for May and June showed a downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs, indicating rising risks in the labor market [2] - Powell warned that if these risks materialize, they could lead to a surge in layoffs and an increase in the unemployment rate [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - The market interpreted Powell's stance as more dovish than expected, with a significant increase in bets for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, rising to 89% from 75% the previous day [1][3] - Powell emphasized the need for cautious policy adjustments, balancing inflation and employment goals [2][3] - The Fed's updated policy framework allows for more flexibility, indicating that employment levels may exceed real-time assessments without necessarily threatening price stability [4] Group 3: Market Reactions - Analysts noted that Powell's comments downplayed inflation risks while highlighting the urgency of addressing labor market weaknesses [3] - Financial institutions expect that unless the employment report is unexpectedly strong, a rate cut in September is almost certain [3] - Powell's cautious tone comes amid political pressure from President Trump for immediate rate cuts and calls for the resignation of Fed officials [4]

美联储穆萨勒姆表示，现在决定是否在下个月的会议上降息还为时过早。当被问及下个月是否有理由降 息50个基点时，穆萨勒姆表示，从他的角度来看，这将"不受当前经济状况和经济前景的支持"。穆萨勒 姆称，一方面，"数据开始给我们一些迹象，表明是否存在持续通胀的可能性。"与此同时，他提到 了"劳动力市场的下行风险"。穆萨勒姆表示，美国经济增长放缓，加上关税对企业利润率构成压力，可 能会威胁到迄今为止表现良好的劳动力市场。他表示："我在权衡这两方面的因素，当我们在两个目标 之间看到紧张关系时，就需要采取一种平衡的策略。" ...

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market shows signs of strength, but there are identified downward risks that could impact future employment data [1] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report from the U.S. Department of Labor is anticipated to provide further insights into the labor market dynamics [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP report indicated a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year [1] - Inflation rates remain above the Federal Reserve's target, contributing to the decision to maintain interest rates [1]