展望12月，在恐慌情绪退潮、美联储减息预期升温带动下，美股有望录得正面表现，但须留意虚拟资产 的波动已开始影响主流投资市场所带来的风险。 就资产配置方面，GUM策略及投资分析董事云天辉指，强积金10月和11月的走势雷同，都是"月中下 跌，月尾追平"，当中科技类比重较高的基金波幅尤其显著，原因在于高估值板块更容易受消息面影响 而出现剧烈波动。虽AI泡沫疑虑扩散至亚洲，但港股展现相对韧性，恒生指数整月稳守25000点上方， 目前市盈率仅12-13倍，估值仍具吸引力。建议成员定期检视风险承受能力与投资目标，避免受短期消 息急买急卖。 智通财经APP获悉，12月3日，GUM公布11月份强积金表现。2025年11月，"GUM强积金综合指数"微跌 0.02%，报284.8点。强积金11月份人均亏损64港元，而年初至今人均赚得44133港元。 GUM首席投资总监刘嘉鸿指出，美股因美国政府持续停摆引发流动性紧张及AI泡沫论再起而下挫，使 强积金11月中人均一度亏损达4000港元。但停摆结束后，且2025年第三季科技巨头财报普遍亮眼，显示 企业对AI的资本投入已转化为实质盈利引擎，云端、晶片及广告业务均录得强劲增长，使市场信心 ...

Core Insights - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December have cooled, impacting Bitcoin prices significantly [1] - Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below the $90,000 mark, reaching its lowest level since April of this year [1] - The cryptocurrency has lost over 30% of its gains accumulated since the beginning of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - GUM reported a 1.6% increase in the "GUM MPF Composite Index" for August, indicating positive performance in the Hong Kong Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) sector, with an average gain of HKD 4,714 per member for the month and HKD 32,416 year-to-date [1] Group 1: Performance Metrics - The "GUM MPF Composite Index" rose to 274.4 points in August 2025, reflecting a 1.6% increase [1] - Average earnings per member for August were HKD 4,714, while year-to-date earnings reached HKD 32,416 [1] Group 2: Fund Performance - All MPF funds have generated profits for members year-to-date, with Hong Kong and Greater China funds yielding the highest returns [1] - The "Greater China Equity Fund" achieved the top return in August due to increased trading activity in the A-share market and a rise in new account openings reported by several brokerages [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics significantly revised down employment data for May and June, leading to heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1] - The S&P 500 maintained upward momentum in August due to solid second-quarter earnings, suggesting a favorable environment for equity markets [1] - With most global tariff negotiations settled, market focus is expected to shift back to fundamentals, prompting members to pay attention to long-term economic indicators and market valuations [1] Group 4: Asset Allocation Strategy - GUM's strategy and investment analysis director suggested that the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut in September could benefit bond fund performance, recommending low-risk members to consider allocating to bonds for potential returns [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25-4.50%, with a hawkish tone from Chairman Powell indicating potential changes in future guidance [1] - There is increased uncertainty regarding the Fed's potential rate cuts, with market expectations for a September cut dropping from 70% to 40% following the July meeting [1][2] - Upcoming economic data, including employment reports and inflation data, will be closely monitored before the September meeting, with inflation seen at a turning point [1][2] Group 2 - The Fed is likely to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach to avoid premature tightening or loosening of monetary policy, which could lead to future volatility [2] - If economic data remains stable, Aberdeen expects yields to stay high, influenced by Powell's strong tone and ongoing criticism from Trump regarding Fed policies [2] Group 3 - The US dollar is expected to remain strong due to several factors, including potential price pressures from tariffs and divergent central bank policies [3] - Asian stock markets may face short-term pressure from rising US rates and a strong dollar, but potential bilateral trade agreements could alleviate these pressures [3] Group 4 - China is highlighted for its strong policy tools, including monetary easing and fiscal support, to mitigate the negative impacts of tariffs, bolstering investor confidence [5] - South Korea presents attractive investment opportunities driven by growth-oriented reforms and active negotiations with the US to avoid tariffs [5] - Thailand is negotiating to reduce tariffs on 90% of US goods, which, along with improving domestic demand, may support its stock market in the short term [5]