美联储减息预期

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GUM:8月香港强积金综合指数上升1.6% 人均赚4714港元
智通财经网· 2025-09-03 02:32
另一方面,美国劳工统计局大幅下修5月及6月份就业数据,促使市场对美联储9月份减息的预期急升; 再加上S&P500第二季度业绩稳健,使美股8月仍维持上涨动能。大部分环球关税谈判已尘埃落定,预计 市场焦点将逐步回归基本面,成员宜关注长期经济指标及各市场的估值。 就资产配置方面,GUM策略及投资分析董事云天辉指,市场对美联储9月份减息的预期急升,有利债券 基金表现,低风险偏好的成员可适量配置以获取潜在回报。 智通财经APP获悉,GUM今日公布8月份香港强积金表现。2025年8月,"GUM强积金综合指数"上升 1.6%,报274.4点。强积金8月份人均赚4714港元,而年初至今人均赚得3.2416万港元。 GUM常务董事陈锐隆指出,年初至今所有强积金基金都为强积金成员赚钱,其中港股和大中华基金等 基金类别为成员创造的收益最高。最近A股市场交易重新活跃,多家券商报告8月新开户数量增长, 令"大中华股票基金"成8月回报首位。 ...
【大行报告】安本:2025年美联储将减息一次或完全不减息
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 03:29
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25-4.50%, with a hawkish tone from Chairman Powell indicating potential changes in future guidance [1] - There is increased uncertainty regarding the Fed's potential rate cuts, with market expectations for a September cut dropping from 70% to 40% following the July meeting [1][2] - Upcoming economic data, including employment reports and inflation data, will be closely monitored before the September meeting, with inflation seen at a turning point [1][2] Group 2 - The Fed is likely to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach to avoid premature tightening or loosening of monetary policy, which could lead to future volatility [2] - If economic data remains stable, Aberdeen expects yields to stay high, influenced by Powell's strong tone and ongoing criticism from Trump regarding Fed policies [2] Group 3 - The US dollar is expected to remain strong due to several factors, including potential price pressures from tariffs and divergent central bank policies [3] - Asian stock markets may face short-term pressure from rising US rates and a strong dollar, but potential bilateral trade agreements could alleviate these pressures [3] Group 4 - China is highlighted for its strong policy tools, including monetary easing and fiscal support, to mitigate the negative impacts of tariffs, bolstering investor confidence [5] - South Korea presents attractive investment opportunities driven by growth-oriented reforms and active negotiations with the US to avoid tariffs [5] - Thailand is negotiating to reduce tariffs on 90% of US goods, which, along with improving domestic demand, may support its stock market in the short term [5]