降息还能走强？最近美元这波操作把不少人看懵了！ 两个月涨3.6%，明明美联储已经两次降息，可美元指数照样冲到100以上。 咱们普通人关心的是，这美元到底还能强多久？手里的资产该怎么调整？ 周叔今天就结合权威分析和最新消息，把这事儿掰开揉碎了讲明白，全是干货不绕弯！ 内部支撑：降息潮里的美元韧性 说句实在话，美元这波强势，核心还是美国经济自己撑得住。 9月到11月， 美联储两次降息共50个基点（BP）。 按常理货币该走弱，可美元指数反倒从96.64涨到100.15， 关键就在于通胀和就业的"反向操作"。 美国通胀韧性简直超出预期，9月仍维持在3.0%，远超2%的目标，服务类通胀更是降得磨磨蹭蹭。 看似软化，可9月非农新增就业突然冲到11.9万，比7、8月的7.3万和2.2万翻了几番，医疗保健、教育等行业的反弹，直接让市场不敢再赌大幅降息。 而劳动力市场更有意思，失业率从4.0%升到4.4%。 11月下旬，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯说还有降息空间，可柯林斯等官员却警告通胀风险，坚决反对12月降息。 更关键的是， 美联储内部现在吵成一团。 据CME"美联储观察"， 12月降息25个BP的概率71%，维持不变的概率29%， ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials expressed dissatisfaction with the recent interest rate cut decision, indicating a growing internal division regarding future rate paths [1][2] - Several officials stated that the current U.S. labor market remains resilient and inflation levels are still high, suggesting that a 25 basis point cut was unnecessary [1][2] - Dallas Fed President Logan emphasized that she would struggle to support another rate cut in December unless there is a significant drop in inflation or a cooling labor market [1] Group 2 - Kansas City Fed President Schmidt criticized the notion of rate cuts, arguing that the U.S. economy still has momentum and that labor market pressures stem more from technological changes and demographic shifts rather than demand cooling [2] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has led to a halt in official economic data releases, increasing uncertainty among Fed policymakers and complicating future policy discussions [2] - The dollar index has risen for three consecutive days, reflecting a 1.6% increase this month, driven by Powell's comments dampening rate cut expectations and pressures in other major economies [2][3] Group 3 - The lack of official economic data has led to increased demand for the dollar as a safe haven, with some institutions reversing their bearish stance on the dollar due to perceived economic resilience [3] - Several investment banks predict that the dollar's strength may continue until the end of the year or even into early 2026, with rising bullish sentiment in the options market [3] - Asian currencies have generally weakened this month, with the Korean won and Japanese yen experiencing significant declines [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices is attributed to a combination of reduced risk appetite, a strong dollar, and technical selling triggered by algorithmic trading [3][4][6]. Group 1: Reasons for Gold Price Drop - Decreased risk appetite due to improved geopolitical signals from the US-China interactions and potential ceasefire talks in Ukraine, leading to reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - A strong rebound in the dollar index, driven by expectations of adjustments in Japan's yield curve control, which increased the cost of holding gold priced in dollars [4]. - Technical selling pressure as gold prices surged from $2,624 to $4,381 in 2025, prompting algorithmic trading to trigger sell-offs once the price fell below the critical support level of $1,900 [4]. Group 2: Impact on Different Stakeholders - For consumers looking to buy gold jewelry, the price drop presents an opportunity, with prices at around 1,198 RMB per gram, down from 1,245 RMB, allowing for potential savings [6]. - Investors holding gold ETFs or paper gold should remain calm and not panic sell, as the market may stabilize [6]. - For those considering buying physical gold bars, a phased approach is recommended, with suggested entry points at $1,880 and $1,850 per ounce to mitigate risks [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term outlook suggests continued pressure on gold prices due to geopolitical factors and a strong dollar, with potential dips to $1,850 [8]. - Long-term prospects remain positive, with central banks continuing to accumulate gold, and expectations of interest rate cuts in the future could enhance gold's attractiveness as an investment [9]. Group 4: Institutional Price Targets - Goldman Sachs projects gold prices could reach $4,900 by the end of 2026, while JPMorgan suggests extreme scenarios could push prices to $5,055 [10]. - Citigroup indicates that as long as global central bank purchases exceed 1,000 tons annually, gold prices will steadily rise above $2,200 [10]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - For consumers needing gold jewelry, it is advisable to observe the market for two weeks and consider buying if prices fall below 1,180 RMB per gram [11]. - Investors in gold bars should adopt a dollar-cost averaging strategy, buying in increments as prices decline [11]. - For paper gold or ETFs, setting a stop-loss at $1,880 is recommended, but panic selling is discouraged [11].

Core Viewpoint - The strength of the US dollar lacks fundamental support, and if data does not align, the upward momentum of the dollar may be difficult to sustain [1] Group 1 - Francesco Pesole, a foreign exchange analyst at ING, expresses concerns about the sustainability of the US dollar's strength [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have rebounded over $30 from the support level of $3323, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [2] - Technically, gold found support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $3323 and quickly rebounded, breaking above the 4-hour 200-period moving average at $3346 [2] - If gold can maintain above the 50% retracement level of $3355, it may target the $3374 region and challenge the psychological level of $3400, potentially approaching the monthly high of $3408 [2] - The short-term technical outlook remains moderately bullish, but confirmation of a breakout is needed as the market is in a critical phase of bullish and bearish dynamics [2] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have slightly declined due to the U.S. not imposing further restrictions on Russian energy exports, alleviating market concerns about supply disruptions [4] - Initial support for oil prices is around $61, while significant resistance remains at the $65 level [4] - If oil prices continue to trade below the 20-day moving average, the short-term trend may remain weak and volatile [4] - The downward pressure on oil prices is primarily due to a temporary easing of geopolitical uncertainties rather than significant changes in supply and demand [6] - Trump's statements provide a short-term buffer for the market, but any reconsideration of secondary sanctions could lead to a rapid rebound in oil prices [6] - Investor speculation regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts will continue to be a significant variable affecting the energy market [6]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts express concern that significantly weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data could challenge the current strength of the U.S. dollar, potentially undermining the narrative of economic resilience in the face of tariff threats [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Outlook - Analysts are pessimistic about the upcoming non-farm payroll report, suggesting it may disrupt the perception of U.S. economic resilience [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25-4.50%, with a hawkish tone from Chairman Powell indicating potential changes in future guidance [1] - There is increased uncertainty regarding the Fed's potential rate cuts, with market expectations for a September cut dropping from 70% to 40% following the July meeting [1][2] - Upcoming economic data, including employment reports and inflation data, will be closely monitored before the September meeting, with inflation seen at a turning point [1][2] Group 2 - The Fed is likely to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach to avoid premature tightening or loosening of monetary policy, which could lead to future volatility [2] - If economic data remains stable, Aberdeen expects yields to stay high, influenced by Powell's strong tone and ongoing criticism from Trump regarding Fed policies [2] Group 3 - The US dollar is expected to remain strong due to several factors, including potential price pressures from tariffs and divergent central bank policies [3] - Asian stock markets may face short-term pressure from rising US rates and a strong dollar, but potential bilateral trade agreements could alleviate these pressures [3] Group 4 - China is highlighted for its strong policy tools, including monetary easing and fiscal support, to mitigate the negative impacts of tariffs, bolstering investor confidence [5] - South Korea presents attractive investment opportunities driven by growth-oriented reforms and active negotiations with the US to avoid tariffs [5] - Thailand is negotiating to reduce tariffs on 90% of US goods, which, along with improving domestic demand, may support its stock market in the short term [5]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump expresses confidence that the Federal Reserve will begin to lower interest rates following his visit to the Fed headquarters, despite concerns over a strong dollar impacting commodity sales [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Trump believes that Fed Chairman Powell is prepared to suggest lowering interest rates after their positive discussion [1]. - The Fed acknowledges Trump's visit and expresses appreciation for his encouragement regarding the renovation project [1]. - Trump emphasizes the need for rate cuts, stating that he does not intend to dismiss Powell over the renovation project [2][4]. Group 2: Renovation Project and Political Pressure - The $2.5 billion renovation project of the Fed headquarters has faced criticism from Republicans, with Trump using it as a political tool against Powell [1][3]. - Officials from the Trump administration continue to apply pressure on Powell regarding the renovation, with calls for investigations into his management [2][3]. - The White House budget office director has accused Powell of mismanagement related to the renovation project [3]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Trump and his officials advocate for the Fed to ease monetary policy to boost the economy, particularly the real estate market [5][6]. - The ongoing discussions highlight a tension between the administration's economic goals and the Fed's independence [1][2].

Group 1 - The negotiations between the U.S. and Canada have been consistently challenging [1] - There is a possibility of Canada imposing tariffs unilaterally [1] - Currently, the focus is not on reaching an agreement with Canada [1]

Core Viewpoint - The strong U.S. dollar is negatively impacting sales, making it difficult for companies to sell their products internationally [1] Group 1 - The strength of the dollar is leading to challenges in exports, as foreign buyers find U.S. goods more expensive [1] - Companies are experiencing reduced competitiveness in global markets due to the dollar's strength [1] - The current economic environment is causing concerns among businesses regarding future sales and profitability [1]