Core Viewpoint - Analysts express concern that significantly weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data could challenge the current strength of the U.S. dollar, potentially undermining the narrative of economic resilience in the face of tariff threats [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Outlook - Analysts are pessimistic about the upcoming non-farm payroll report, suggesting it may disrupt the perception of U.S. economic resilience [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25-4.50%, with a hawkish tone from Chairman Powell indicating potential changes in future guidance [1] - There is increased uncertainty regarding the Fed's potential rate cuts, with market expectations for a September cut dropping from 70% to 40% following the July meeting [1][2] - Upcoming economic data, including employment reports and inflation data, will be closely monitored before the September meeting, with inflation seen at a turning point [1][2] Group 2 - The Fed is likely to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach to avoid premature tightening or loosening of monetary policy, which could lead to future volatility [2] - If economic data remains stable, Aberdeen expects yields to stay high, influenced by Powell's strong tone and ongoing criticism from Trump regarding Fed policies [2] Group 3 - The US dollar is expected to remain strong due to several factors, including potential price pressures from tariffs and divergent central bank policies [3] - Asian stock markets may face short-term pressure from rising US rates and a strong dollar, but potential bilateral trade agreements could alleviate these pressures [3] Group 4 - China is highlighted for its strong policy tools, including monetary easing and fiscal support, to mitigate the negative impacts of tariffs, bolstering investor confidence [5] - South Korea presents attractive investment opportunities driven by growth-oriented reforms and active negotiations with the US to avoid tariffs [5] - Thailand is negotiating to reduce tariffs on 90% of US goods, which, along with improving domestic demand, may support its stock market in the short term [5]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump expresses confidence that the Federal Reserve will begin to lower interest rates following his visit to the Fed headquarters, despite concerns over a strong dollar impacting commodity sales [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Trump believes that Fed Chairman Powell is prepared to suggest lowering interest rates after their positive discussion [1]. - The Fed acknowledges Trump's visit and expresses appreciation for his encouragement regarding the renovation project [1]. - Trump emphasizes the need for rate cuts, stating that he does not intend to dismiss Powell over the renovation project [2][4]. Group 2: Renovation Project and Political Pressure - The $2.5 billion renovation project of the Fed headquarters has faced criticism from Republicans, with Trump using it as a political tool against Powell [1][3]. - Officials from the Trump administration continue to apply pressure on Powell regarding the renovation, with calls for investigations into his management [2][3]. - The White House budget office director has accused Powell of mismanagement related to the renovation project [3]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Trump and his officials advocate for the Fed to ease monetary policy to boost the economy, particularly the real estate market [5][6]. - The ongoing discussions highlight a tension between the administration's economic goals and the Fed's independence [1][2].

Group 1 - The negotiations between the U.S. and Canada have been consistently challenging [1] - There is a possibility of Canada imposing tariffs unilaterally [1] - Currently, the focus is not on reaching an agreement with Canada [1]

Core Viewpoint - The strong U.S. dollar is negatively impacting sales, making it difficult for companies to sell their products internationally [1] Group 1 - The strength of the dollar is leading to challenges in exports, as foreign buyers find U.S. goods more expensive [1] - Companies are experiencing reduced competitiveness in global markets due to the dollar's strength [1] - The current economic environment is causing concerns among businesses regarding future sales and profitability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of new tariffs by President Trump has intensified concerns over the trade war, leading to a resurgence in gold prices, which briefly surpassed the $3340 mark, with expectations of further upward movement towards $3350 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Trump's recent tariff measures include a 50% tariff on copper imports from all countries except Canada and similar tariffs on Brazilian goods, alongside hints of a potential 15%-20% general tariff, prompting a surge in safe-haven investments in gold [3]. - Despite the rise in gold prices, two factors are limiting its growth: a 0.3% short-term increase in the US dollar index, which is expected to rise by 0.8% weekly, and unexpectedly strong US employment data, which has reduced market expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with gold prices hovering near the middle band, indicating strong bullish momentum. The $3350 level is a key resistance, while $3280 serves as critical support [4]. - The 4-hour chart shows a flat Bollinger Band, with gold prices currently below the upper band. The MACD indicator is in a bullish crossover, and the RSI indicates a strong demand for a rebound, with attention on the support at $3280 and resistance at $3350 [4]. - The 1-hour chart indicates an expanding Bollinger Band, reflecting significant short-term volatility. The MACD is in a bullish crossover, and the RSI shows strong momentum, with support at $3280 and resistance at $3350 [5].

Market Overview - The current gold market is influenced by multiple factors, including Trump's tariff policy providing safe-haven support for gold prices, while a strong dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields limit its upward potential [1] - The complex signals from the U.S. labor market and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts add further uncertainty to gold price trends [1] - In the short term, gold prices may continue to fluctuate within the current range, with a significant breakthrough above $3,400 being challenging unless there is a major escalation in geopolitical or trade tensions [1] - Investors should closely monitor the upcoming CPI data on July 15 and the Federal Reserve's policy direction, as these factors will provide clearer guidance for future gold price movements [1] Gold Price Analysis - Gold experienced minimal fluctuations, primarily trading within the $3,310-$3,330 range, with a noted drop to $3,310 before rebounding [2] - The daily chart shows two consecutive small bullish candles, with gold still operating below the mid-band, indicating a relatively bullish trend despite the current position [2] - The hourly chart indicates that gold is currently around $3,327, with upward movement supported by the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, and bullish indicators suggesting a preference for long positions [2] Trading Recommendations - A recommendation to buy gold at $3,314-$3,317 with a stop loss at $3,309 and a take profit target of $3,330-$3,335 [3] - A recommendation to sell gold at $3,342-$3,345 with a stop loss at $3,350 and a take profit target of $3,325 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing increased demand for safe-haven assets due to market volatility, fiscal concerns, and the expanding U.S. deficit, while the strong performance of the U.S. dollar is limiting silver's upward potential [2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The dollar index is trading around 97.30, while spot silver opened at $36.34 per ounce and is currently around $36.40 per ounce [1]. - On July 9, the dollar index closed at 97.49, with spot silver down 0.99% to $36.38 per ounce, while other precious metals showed mixed results [1]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has decreased from over two-week highs to 4.34%, providing some support for silver prices [2]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Investors are increasingly seeking silver as a safe-haven asset amid global economic uncertainties, including geopolitical risks and unclear trade policies [2]. - The strong dollar is reducing silver's attractiveness to overseas buyers, impacting its price potential [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical analysts suggest that spot silver may decline to a range of $36.28 to $36.32 per ounce, having breached the critical support level of $36.36 [3].

Group 1 - COMEX gold inventory recorded at 1175.22 tons on June 19, showing a decrease of 0.01 tons from the previous trading day [1][2] - COMEX gold price closed at 3387.40 USD/ounce on June 19, with an intraday high of 3405.20 USD/ounce and a low of 3363.60 USD/ounce, reflecting a slight increase of 0.03% [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations, while indicating potential rate cuts later in the year [3] Group 2 - Despite geopolitical tensions regarding Iran, including potential military action by the U.S. and recent airstrikes by Israel, gold prices did not sustain a safe-haven rally [3] - The cautious tone from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell regarding inflation and monetary policy has supported the strength of the U.S. dollar, which in turn limited the rise in gold prices [3]

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Geopolitical risks are supporting gold prices due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, with the U.S. increasing military presence in the region, raising concerns about further conflict escalation [3] - The U.S. dollar strengthened significantly, with the index rising 0.7% to 98.83, while U.S. retail sales data showed a larger-than-expected decline of 0.9% in May, indicating consumer caution amid trade uncertainties [4] - The market is cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with expectations that the policy rate will remain unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, despite calls from President Trump for a one percentage point cut [5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices are in a state of indecision after a significant drop, closing with a doji candlestick, indicating a search for balance between buyers and sellers [6] - The four-hour chart shows gold prices in an ascending wedge pattern, with key support at 3470/3463; a break below this level could signal a potential downward trend [9] - Resistance levels to watch include 3396 and 3420, with a breakthrough at 3396 potentially providing bullish momentum for gold prices [9]