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突发!外围传来大消息!
券商中国· 2025-09-23 07:42
Core Viewpoint - The recent movements in the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) and interbank rates signal potential investment opportunities and market dynamics, particularly influenced by increased demand from mainland investors and favorable market conditions [1][2][4]. Group 1: HKD and Interbank Rates - On September 23, the HKD interbank rates rose significantly, with the one-month HIBOR reaching 3.91107%, an increase of 29.797 basis points, marking a four-day consecutive rise and a four-month high [2]. - The three-month HIBOR reported at 3.73881%, up by 18.107 basis points, while the overnight rate increased to 4.4525%, up by 31.821 basis points [2]. - The HKD appreciated approximately 1% against the USD over the past 30 days, a notable increase not seen since 2003 [2]. Group 2: Investment Trends - As the quarter-end approaches, mainland investors have intensified their purchases of Hong Kong stocks, leading to a rise in demand for the HKD [4]. - The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) has recorded inflows for six consecutive weeks, totaling $5.99 million, the longest streak since February [4]. - Despite recent adjustments in the Hong Kong and A-share markets, analysts suggest that the long-term trend remains positive, with short-term corrections providing better entry points for investments, particularly in technology and semiconductor sectors [6][8]. Group 3: Historical Performance and Future Outlook - The Hang Seng Index has experienced its worst performance over the past decade, with an annualized return of -3.1% from 2013 to 2023, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury return was 2.4% [7]. - Historical data indicates a correlation between U.S. monetary policy cycles and the performance of the Hang Seng Index, suggesting potential for future growth as the U.S. maintains low interest rates [7][8]. - Analysts predict that the current market environment, characterized by foreign capital inflows and supportive policies, enhances the investment value of core assets in the Hong Kong market [8].