策略周报 康波萧条期的全面加速 策略周末谈（0301） 核心结论 2026 年，萧条期的"三不变"决定了趋势正式进入加速阶段—— 一不变：RMB 升值的方向不变，调控的是节奏 离岸汇率创新高是跨境资金加速回流的结果。即便央行下场调控，更多调控 的是斜率而非方向。历史上出台类似的调控政策都基本不会改变实际的汇率 变动趋势。对市场的影响也相对有限。从结果看，升值带动外资流入，已初 现端倪。面对趋势渐弱的美股，年初以来我们观察到了主动资金开始陆续的 流入。这是康波萧条期中，属于追赶国股市的机遇。 丙午之年，大争之世。1978 年底，伊朗伊斯兰革命爆发，并引发第二次石 油危机；而 2026 年美以对伊战争爆发，也将带动商品超级周期走向新的阶 段。对 A 股而言，温和通胀将在 2026 年兑现为一轮属于追赶国的繁荣（炼 化、贵金属、有色金属、煤炭、油运等）。 风险提示：国际局势变化风险，美债利率超预期上行，产业政策变化风险等。 1 | 请务必仔细阅读报告尾部的投资评级说明和声明 分析师 曹柳龙 S0800525010001 13817664054 caoliulong@research.xbmail.com.cn 徐嘉 ...

我问你个问题，你觉不觉得现在的美元越来越像个只会放空炮的土豪了。我今天翻看美联储最新的资产负债表，还有那每天都在跳动的美国债务时 钟，心里只有一种感觉，这美元潮汐的收割机，是不是生锈了。 我查了一下，根据美国财政部公布的数据，美国联邦债务总额在2025年2月初已经稳稳站在了36万亿美元这个关口。这可不是什么轻飘飘的数字， 这是在短短几个月内又蹦上来的新高度。我昨晚盯着那个数据卡了三秒，心想这后面得加多少个零。 但这一次，美国连续加息了这么久，加到了5.25%到5.5%的区间，结果大伙儿发现，诶，除了日元稍微跌得惨点，其他的好像也就那么回事。尤其 是咱们这边，制造业底子厚，直接把通胀压力给扛住了。 所以我也在想，美元的信用是不是已经到了一个临界点。当债务利息支出超过国防开支的时候，这个国家的信用还剩下多少。根据美国国会预算办 公室的预测，如果不加节制，2030年左右利息支出就会成为美国预算里最大的单一项目。到时候别说加息到5%，就是加到3%，美国那些脆弱的银 行系统可能都要跟着陪葬。2023年倒闭的那几家银行其实已经给出了预告，那只是利息稍微高了一点点的结果。 我昨天看到一组数据，说全球央行在2024年购买黄金 ...

读文章前，麻烦您点一下关注，这样方便讨论和分享，也可以及时收到每日更新的优质内容。根据观察者网等权威媒体的报道，2026年1月下旬，特朗普在 《华尔街日报》上紧急发文。此时，正值美国联邦政府面临1月31日凌晨的停摆危机，而最高法院也即将做出对等关税的裁决。在这个关键时刻，特朗普依 然大肆宣扬自己在对华贸易中的战绩。 与此同时，特朗普还推动美国强行接管委内瑞拉的部分油田控制权，逼迫中国以高价购买原本廉价的委内瑞拉原油，试图通过这种方式填补美国日渐枯竭的 财政窟窿。这一系列急功近利的掠夺式操作，真的能挽救岌岌可危的美国财政，保住美国的命脉吗？特朗普的逻辑可谓荒诞，简直是一场强盗逻辑的演绎， 他的自信过头了，仿佛胜利已是囊中之物。 特朗普在文章中豪言，中国在美国进口市场的份额已经跌至2001年中国加入世贸组织以来的最低点，试图用这一点作为筹码，在接下来的博弈中大开口，提 出不合理的高额要求。最令人吃惊的要数委内瑞拉石油案了，这几乎成了教科书式的空手套白狼操作。美国先是强行接管了委内瑞拉部分油田的控制权，摇 身一变，成为了二房东，坐地收租。 特朗普所说的从未见过的情况，恐怕指的就是他从未遇到过如此坚韧、越压越强的对手 ...

有观点指出当前华尔街正大力推高黄金价格，其背后藏着美高层的深层考量。美高层计划降息，以刺激本土经 济，解决就业遇冷、企业动力不足的问题，但降息会削弱美元吸引力，热钱可能流出美元体系，一旦未来美经济 衰退，美元潮汐的收割玩法恐将失效，这会让美国陷入危机。为避免热钱流出美元体系，美高层希望引导资金进 入由美元主导的黄金市场，将黄金价格炒高后，黄金储备较少的国家财富会相对贬值。 如今这套玩法渐显乏力，不少国家悄悄推进去美元化，减持美债、增持黄金，盟友也在降低对美元的依赖，若降 息后热钱转而兑换其他货币，美国将面临巨大麻烦。 看透了本质，还有观点补充道，石油也是美国收割的一种方式，当下美国扬言对伊朗动手，但大概率打不起来， 无非是制造矛盾，以此推高金价和石油价格。 过去多年，美高层靠着美元潮汐收割全球，降息时向外输出美元推高资产价格，加息时抽回美元刺破别国资产泡 沫，多次引发地区经济危机。 ...

美元潮汐变局中的战略定力 中国经济发展的三个"核反应堆"策略 ——等待2026年美国丧失加息能力，届时美元潮汐或终结。为保股市利润、汇率及息差，中国不跟随美国降息。 ——"十五五规划"后央行资产负债表再造，抛弃外贸占款，从强制结汇变不强制结汇，提升汇率，吸引资本回流助力产业升级。 ——推动70万亿存款搬家，解决代际再分配问题，避免90后因无存款搬家机会产生民粹等问题。 全球经济波诡云谲，国内经济转型压力凸显，如何精准对冲外部风险、深度破解内部发展难题？思塔资本刘冲近日提出，中国经济可依托三大关键策略打 造发展"核反应堆"——借美元加息变局稳住发展基本盘，以央行资产负债表再造赋能产业升级，靠推动存款搬家平衡代际分配。这三大策略协同发力、同 频运转，必将上演中国速度为经济高质量发展注入强劲动力。 这一重构的威力堪称"金融赋能产业"的典范。过去，强制结售汇制度让央行被动吸纳外汇、释放基础货币，既制约了货币政策独立性，又容易引发流动性 过剩。而如今的制度转型，让人民币汇率更具弹性，企业可自主调配外汇资金，央行则能将货币政策的主动权牢牢掌握在手中。更重要的是，汇率形成机 制的市场化改革，正吸引全球长期资本回流中国，这些 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies on emerging markets, highlighting the volatility and challenges these markets face due to the "dollar tide" phenomenon, where capital flows in and out based on U.S. monetary policy [1][4][6]. Group 1: Impact of Interest Rate Changes - The Federal Reserve's actions of raising interest rates have led to significant capital outflows from emerging markets, with the Argentine peso and Turkish lira depreciating by 40.5% and 30.3% against the dollar, respectively [2][6]. - Conversely, when the Fed lowers interest rates, capital flows back into emerging markets, which can create speculative bubbles that risk financial instability [6][11]. Group 2: Currency and Debt Challenges - The strengthening of the dollar during rate hikes increases the cost of imports for emerging markets, leading to rising inflation pressures, while rate cuts can make exports more expensive, reducing competitiveness [9][11]. - Many emerging markets have accumulated substantial dollar-denominated debt, which becomes more burdensome as interest rates rise and local currencies depreciate, leading to record levels of debt repayment and increased default risks [11][13]. Group 3: Shifts in Global Monetary Policy - There is a noticeable decline in the dollar's dominance in global reserves, dropping to 56.92% by Q3 2025, prompting countries to seek alternatives to mitigate reliance on U.S. monetary policy [13][22]. - Countries like China and Russia are increasingly using local currencies for trade, with 99.1% of their bilateral trade settled in rubles and yuan by 2025, indicating a shift away from dollar dependency [16][22]. - Global monetary policies are becoming less synchronized with the Fed, as seen with Switzerland and the European Central Bank initiating rate cuts independently, suggesting a move towards more autonomous monetary strategies [18][20].

Core Viewpoint - The appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) is not a positive or negative signal but represents a shift in global rules, as it breaks through the 7.0 mark and enters the "6" range [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - There is a consistent narrative that regardless of whether the RMB rises or falls, the conclusion drawn is that "the Chinese economy is about to collapse," raising questions about the validity of this logic [1][2]. - The analysis highlights the absurdity of the "double standard" narrative that claims economic collapse can occur regardless of currency fluctuations [1][2]. Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The short-term fluctuations of the RMB are influenced by external factors, particularly the "tide of the US dollar," which plays a significant role in the currency's movement [1][2]. - The purchasing power disparity is emphasized, illustrating that $100 may be insufficient in the West but is considered a substantial amount in China, indicating a potential revaluation of the RMB [1][2]. Group 3: Trust and Financial Systems - The article discusses the erosion of trust in traditional financial systems, with SWIFT being weaponized and US Treasury bonds viewed as a "terrorist lover," leading to global capital concerns [1][2]. - New payment systems like CIPS and BRICS payment mechanisms are emerging as alternatives in response to these fears [1][2]. Group 4: Underlying Economic Shifts - The fundamental strength behind the RMB's appreciation is its transition from a mere financial contract to a priority claim on the "world's strongest real economy," signifying a deeper economic revolution [1][2]. - This transformation is not just numerical but represents a silent revolution regarding the sources of "security" in the future world [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, highlighting the failure of the US's three-year plan to exploit emerging markets through aggressive monetary policy, and China's strategic responses that led to this reversal [1][3][8]. Group 1: Currency Movements - On December 25, 2025, the offshore yuan broke the 7.0 mark against the US dollar, reaching a high of 6.9985, while the onshore yuan surpassed 7.01, marking a significant recovery from a low of 7.40 in April [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle in December 2025 led to a nearly 10% drop in the US dollar index, which contributed to the yuan's appreciation [3][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - A "settlement rush" occurred as Chinese export companies, previously holding onto US dollars due to depreciation fears, began converting their dollars to yuan following the Fed's rate cuts, creating a positive feedback loop of currency appreciation [5][12]. - The divergence in global monetary policies, with the Fed cutting rates while the Bank of Japan raised rates, shifted capital flows away from the dollar and yen, favoring Chinese assets [5][10]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - China's capital account management acted as a firewall against speculative attacks, preventing large-scale short-selling that occurred in other emerging markets [8][10]. - The proactive decision to deflate the real estate bubble helped stabilize the economy, allowing Chinese assets to remain resilient during the dollar's aggressive rise [10][12]. - China's manufacturing capabilities, particularly in technology sectors like lithium batteries, have positioned it favorably in global markets, driving demand for the yuan [12][16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The yuan's future exchange rate will be influenced by complex factors, with predictions suggesting a range between 6.8 and 7.1, rather than a straightforward appreciation [18][20]. - The People's Bank of China aims to maintain a stable yuan at a reasonable level to balance capital outflows and support export competitiveness [20].

Group 1: Core Views - The Federal Reserve has completed its third interest rate cut since September, reducing the federal funds rate by 25 basis points each time, which has drawn global market attention [2] - The underlying reasons for this rate cut are linked to signs of weakness in the employment market, including a slowdown in job growth and a rising unemployment rate [2][6] - This rate cut is characterized as a preventive measure rather than a response to an economic recession, indicating a cautious approach by the Federal Reserve towards economic prospects [6] Group 2: Economic Implications - Consumer spending, a key driver of the U.S. economy, is closely tied to the employment market; a decline in employment could directly increase the risk of economic slowdown [4] - The decision to cut rates reflects significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, with a vote of 9 in favor and 3 against, marking the highest number of dissenting votes since 2019 [9][11] - The mixed signals from the Federal Reserve's decision-making process may lead to increased volatility in global markets, particularly affecting emerging markets [13] Group 3: Impact on China - The Fed's shift to a rate-cutting cycle presents opportunities for China to enhance its policy autonomy and optimize asset allocation [15] - The easing of U.S. monetary policy reduces external constraints, allowing the People's Bank of China to adjust its policies more freely based on domestic economic conditions [15] - The depreciation of the dollar may lead to a relative appreciation of the yuan, benefiting import-oriented companies by lowering import costs [15][17] Group 4: Broader Effects - The changes in monetary policy will affect everyday life, potentially lowering costs for studying abroad, traveling, and shopping overseas for families with such needs [17] - It is essential to approach currency fluctuations with caution, as short-term volatility does not necessarily indicate long-term trends [19] - Both companies and individuals should focus on their core needs and long-term planning to effectively respond to external policy changes [20]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, which is seen as a form of "hawkish easing" that impacts the global economy significantly [1][5][9] - The internal debate within the Federal Reserve was intense, with a notable split among members, including a push from some for a 50 basis point cut due to declining employment data in key sectors [5][7] - The reduction in the federal funds rate is expected to ease liquidity issues in the financial system, which has seen a significant contraction of $2.4 trillion since 2022 [7][9] Group 2 - The current economic environment is heavily influenced by AI investments, which rely on low interest rates for financing, thus a rate cut could further boost stock markets [9][11] - The political pressure on the Federal Reserve is increasing, with former President Trump criticizing the current chair for not being decisive enough in rate cuts [11][13] - The concept of "dollar tides" suggests that when the Fed increases liquidity, it can lead to capital flowing into emerging markets, creating opportunities for growth [13][15] Group 3 - The potential benefits of the Fed's actions include increased investment returns for ordinary investors, as seen in the rising bond market and foreign investment in Chinese government bonds [22][24] - The easing of the yuan's depreciation pressure allows the People's Bank of China more room to implement supportive monetary policies, which could lead to lower financing costs for businesses [24][26] - However, there are risks associated with this influx of capital, including the potential for rapid withdrawal of "hot money" and inflationary pressures from global liquidity [26][28] Group 4 - The historical context of past financial crises, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 1997 Asian financial crisis, highlights the risks associated with the Fed's monetary policy shifts [18][20] - The current economic landscape requires careful management of personal finances and investment strategies to navigate the potential volatility that may arise from these changes [32][33] - The emphasis on enhancing individual skills and maintaining a balanced perspective on market fluctuations is crucial for long-term financial stability [33][35]