Group 1 - The U.S. labor market data has been significantly revised downwards, with a total of 258,000 jobs disappearing from the non-farm payrolls over two months, indicating a potential systemic issue with the accuracy of employment statistics [2][4] - The U.S. government has a history of releasing favorable employment data to boost market confidence, only to later revise these figures downward, which has raised concerns about the integrity of the data [4][6] - The recent employment data revisions have led to negative implications for President Trump's administration, as he faces pressure to address the weak job numbers and has called for the dismissal of key economic officials [4][6] Group 2 - The job growth reported in June, which showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, was misleading as the majority of new positions were in government, education, and healthcare, while retail and manufacturing sectors showed little to no growth [6][7] - The current economic situation in the U.S. presents a dilemma for monetary policy, where both raising and lowering interest rates could lead to significant risks for the economy [6] - In the context of U.S.-China trade negotiations, the U.S. appears anxious and is employing various strategies, while China maintains a stable and patient approach, suggesting a potential delay tactic from the Chinese side [7]

一旦美联储开启降息通道，新一轮美元潮汐将正式上演。当美国利率降低，美元资本在本土的吸引力减 弱，它们便会迫不及待地流向全球，为各国市场带来大量资金。股市将迎来一波牛市行情，美股纳斯达 克指数近期再创历史新高，日本日经225指数、中国港股、A股、印度股市均持续走强，这便是资本提 前布局的信号。企业的融资变得更加容易，投资活动也会愈发活跃，推动实体经济的发展。房地产市场 也会在这股资金潮的推动下迎来繁荣，房价可能会出现大幅上涨。 但这仅仅是潮汐的涨潮阶段，当美国经济在降息的刺激下逐渐企稳向好，加息周期也将随之而来。那 时，美元资本会毫不犹豫地从各国市场抽身，回流美国。曾经被推高的资产价格将如泡沫般破裂，股市 暴跌，企业融资困难，资金链断裂风险大增，大量企业可能面临破产倒闭。房地产市场也会陷入寒冬， 房价暴跌，许多购房者将面临资产缩水的困境。那些依赖外资的新兴市场国家，更是会遭受沉重打击， 货币贬值、债务违约、金融市场动荡等问题将接踵而至，经济陷入衰退的泥沼。 面对这全新的美元潮汐，中国早已未雨绸缪，前瞻性地做出了一系列布局。在货币政策方面，中国人民 银行紧盯美联储且先于其行动。今年5月率先降准降息，这一举措既有效 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut is expected to have significant impacts on the global economy, necessitating preparedness from various sectors [2][3] - Recent statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the July monetary policy meeting minutes indicate a clear signal towards a shift in monetary policy, with a high likelihood of a rate cut in September [2][3] - From March 2022 to July 2023, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates 11 times, totaling an increase of 525 basis points, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at its highest level in 23 years [2] Group 2 - Market institutions are increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve will likely cut rates in September unless significant unexpected events occur [3] - Historical experiences show that a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy can lead to increased volatility in financial markets, as seen after the rate cut in July 2019 [3] - A rate cut could lead to fluctuations in exchange rates, impacting international trade costs and potentially exacerbating trade tensions, especially for countries competing with U.S. exports [4] Group 3 - The lowering of interest rates may increase the risk of asset bubbles globally, as lower borrowing costs and increased liquidity drive investors towards higher returns, potentially leading to speculative price increases [4][5] - A rate cut could stimulate global economic growth and investment activities, but it may also lead to excessive borrowing in some countries, raising global debt risks [5] - The release of liquidity during a rate cut phase often results in capital flowing into emerging markets, which can lead to political instability and heightened regional security concerns [5]

青侨阳光医药投资 - 投资思考 上个月月报，探讨了我们认为比较重要的 2 点思考： 在本月月报里，我们想接着上月的话题，进一步展开关于时代逻辑的更具体探讨。 时代是复杂的混合载体，从不同的角度和不同的尺度，能看到不同的景象，带来不同的感受，属于典型的横看 成岭侧成峰。对长尺度大时代的理解，深远影响着青侨基金对长期投资方向和整体投资策略的选择；而对中尺 度下不同细分和侧面的行业趋势的理解，则可能会阶段性影响青侨基金在不同时期不同资产间的投研偏好。下 面是我们的一些具体思考。 1 从扩量到提质， 医药行业仍然具备超额增长的时代动能 从历史积淀来说， 医药是一个相当传统的行业。 从2000多年前的扁鹊华佗和希波克拉底，到400-500百年前成 立的片仔癀同仁堂，再到100多年前成立的辉瑞礼来雅培强生，医药行业传承深厚，历史悠长。 但从行业增长看， 医药又是妥妥的朝阳行业。 如果我们去看美德英法意澳加日韩等发达国家的历史，会发现 它们的卫生总费用年均增速， 在过去半个世纪里保持了1.2-1.4倍名义GDP增速的速度在稳健增长 ，卫生健康 支出占GDP的比重普遍从3%-5%提高到10%-12%（美国超过17%）。中国也 ...