Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price is under pressure. Although the shortage of copper resources supports the price, the high inventory restricts the upward movement of the market. Before the short - term macro - sentiment is repaired and the peak season does not show obvious improvement, the copper price will be mainly under pressure [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Supply**: In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year - on - year increase of 6.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.0%. The domestic copper concentrate inventory is at a relatively low level compared with previous years. Due to the tight overseas copper resources and shipping difficulties caused by the war, the shortage of copper resources still supports the copper price. The electrolytic copper production in March increased by 52,800 tons month - on - month and 6.51% year - on - year. The spread between refined and scrap copper in mainstream areas has narrowed [1] - **Demand**: After entering the peak season (March and April), the copper product sector has seen an increase in production. In February, the operating rate of the copper cable industry was 55.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 14.29 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 9.06 percentage points. However, the terminal data is not optimistic, and the feedback of copper price from the terminal is weak. The production and sales of new energy vehicles decreased by 21.8% and 14.2% year - on - year respectively [1] - **Macro - factors**: The Fed's delay in interest rate cuts and the possibility of a hedging interest rate hike have strengthened the US dollar, putting pressure on the copper price. The fundamentals are not strong enough to counter this pressure [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The Shanghai copper futures opened lower and moved higher, showing a weak trend during the day [1][4] - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China is - 65 yuan/ton, and in South China is 55 yuan/ton. On March 19, 2026, the LME official price was $11,925/ton, and the spot premium was - $99/ton [4] 3.3 Supply - side Information - As of March 16, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 60.12 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 6.10 cents/pound [8] 3.4 Inventory Information - SHFE copper inventory is 287,900 tons, a decrease of 18,528 tons from the previous period. As of March 16, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 83,900 tons, a decrease of 630 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 588,800 tons, an increase of 313 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 588,800 short tons, an increase of 313 short tons from the previous period [11]