Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price is under pressure. Although the shortage of copper resources supports the price, the high inventory restricts the upward movement of the market. Before the short - term macro - sentiment is repaired and the peak season does not show obvious improvement, the copper price will be mainly under pressure [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Supply**: In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year - on - year increase of 6.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.0%. The domestic copper concentrate inventory is at a relatively low level compared with previous years. Due to the tight overseas copper resources and shipping difficulties caused by the war, the shortage of copper resources still supports the copper price. The electrolytic copper production in March increased by 52,800 tons month - on - month and 6.51% year - on - year. The spread between refined and scrap copper in mainstream areas has narrowed [1] - **Demand**: After entering the peak season (March and April), the copper product sector has seen an increase in production. In February, the operating rate of the copper cable industry was 55.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 14.29 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 9.06 percentage points. However, the terminal data is not optimistic, and the feedback of copper price from the terminal is weak. The production and sales of new energy vehicles decreased by 21.8% and 14.2% year - on - year respectively [1] - **Macro - factors**: The Fed's delay in interest rate cuts and the possibility of a hedging interest rate hike have strengthened the US dollar, putting pressure on the copper price. The fundamentals are not strong enough to counter this pressure [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The Shanghai copper futures opened lower and moved higher, showing a weak trend during the day [1][4] - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China is - 65 yuan/ton, and in South China is 55 yuan/ton. On March 19, 2026, the LME official price was $11,925/ton, and the spot premium was - $99/ton [4] 3.3 Supply - side Information - As of March 16, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 60.12 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 6.10 cents/pound [8] 3.4 Inventory Information - SHFE copper inventory is 287,900 tons, a decrease of 18,528 tons from the previous period. As of March 16, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 83,900 tons, a decrease of 630 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 588,800 tons, an increase of 313 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 588,800 short tons, an increase of 313 short tons from the previous period [11]

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a decline in prices due to macroeconomic pressures and weak fundamentals, with expectations of continued volatility in the short term [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Today's Shanghai lead futures fell, with the main contract opening at 17,350 yuan, reaching a high of 17,400 yuan and a low of 17,235 yuan, closing at 17,355 yuan, down 165 yuan or 0.94% [1]. - The trading volume for the main contract was 58,684 lots, with open interest decreasing by 3,100 lots to 42,928 lots [1]. - The latest price for London lead is reported at 2,038.5 USD, an increase of 22 USD [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The domestic spot lead price has slightly decreased, with the average price reported at 17,250 yuan, down 150 yuan [1][2]. - Supply pressures are significant, with primary lead smelters operating at high rates and inventories increasing by over 100% in a week, indicating an oversupply situation [2]. - The demand side is experiencing seasonal weakness, particularly in the lead-acid battery sector, leading to reduced operating rates and a lack of strong support from the electric bicycle and automotive replacement markets [2]. Group 3: Price Outlook - The narrowing of spot discounts and trade demand being primarily driven by essential purchases suggest a trend of weak overall transactions [3]. - In the short term, lead prices are expected to continue fluctuating as they seek a bottom under the pressures of inventory accumulation and macroeconomic constraints [3]. - Long-term price movements will depend on the speed of inventory reduction post-Spring Festival and macroeconomic policy developments, with potential for weak price fluctuations if demand recovery falls short of expectations [3].

Report Overview - Report Title: Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Nickel and Stainless Steel [1] - Date: November 18, 2025 [3] - Analyst: Wu Jinheng [4] Investment Ratings - Nickel: Hold a wait - and - see stance, with an expected price range of 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [5][99] - Stainless Steel: Hold short positions, with an expected price range of 11,800 - 12,800 yuan/ton [6][125] Core Views - Nickel: Under macro - level pressure, the supply - demand fundamentals are loose and inventory is rising, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [5][99] - Stainless Steel: Weak demand, loose fundamentals, and weakening costs will keep stainless steel prices running weakly [6][125] Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel declined by 2.16% weekly, with trading volume dropping to 450,600 lots (- 95,900) and open interest falling to 112,200 lots (- 9,700). LME nickel fell 1.20% weekly, with trading volume rising to 41,100 lots (+ 3,600) [11] - The basis premium was 1,950 yuan/ton [13] 1.2 Supply Side Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained flat, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China was unchanged [21] - In September, the Philippines' nickel ore exports decreased. China's nickel ore imports reached 6.11 million tons, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease and a 33.9% year - on - year increase [26] - Last week, the nickel ore arrival volume decreased by 90,200 tons week - on - week, and port inventory decreased by 50,000 wet tons [28] Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron dropped by 12 yuan/nickel point, while the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron remained flat. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel narrowed, and the premium to scrap stainless steel widened [34] - In September, China's nickel pig iron imports were 1.085 million tons, a 24.2% month - on - month increase and a 47.2% year - on - year increase. Imports are expected to decline in October [39] - In November, domestic nickel pig iron production and capacity utilization declined, while those in Indonesia increased. Nickel pig iron inventory accumulated [47][49] Electrolytic Nickel - In November, the production and capacity utilization of refined nickel declined, and the import loss of electrolytic nickel widened [53][57] - In September, electrolytic nickel imports increased and exports decreased [61] 1.3 Demand Side Stainless Steel - In November, stainless steel production decreased, mainly due to the reduction of 200 - series production, while 300 - series production remained basically flat [66][114] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased by 6.6% month - on - month and 8.7% year - on - year, while imports increased by 2.7% month - on - month and 0.4% year - on - year. Exports and imports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [70][117] New Energy - The premium of battery - grade nickel sulfate to pure nickel widened, and the proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was extremely low [75] - In November, the production of ternary precursors decreased by 0.1% month - on - month but increased by 20.4% year - on - year, while the production of ternary materials increased by 1.4% month - on - month and 39.8% year - on - year [79] - In November, the production of nickel sulfate increased by 4.8% month - on - month and 23.4% year - on - year [81] - In October, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.772 million units, a 9.6% month - on - month increase and a 21.1% year - on - year increase; sales were 1.715 million units, a 6.9% month - on - month increase and a 19.9% year - on - year increase [87] 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE nickel inventory and LME nickel inventory both increased. Shanghai bonded - area pure nickel inventory remained flat, and the six - region social inventory increased by 3,981 tons [88][93] 1.5 Cost and Outlook - The cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate, nickel matte, and MHP decreased. MHP - integrated production of electrowon nickel has a significant cost advantage over nickel matte - integrated production [98] - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to macro - level pressure, loose fundamentals, and rising inventory [99] 2.1 Stainless Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless steel futures declined by 1.51% weekly, with the basis widening to 1,080 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 490,300 lots (unchanged), and open interest increased to 167,700 lots (+ 110,600) [102] 2.2 Cost and Profit - The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased, weakening cost support [105] - The profitability of 200 - series stainless steel improved, the losses of 300 - series widened, and 400 - series turned from loss to profit [110] 2.3 Fundamental Analysis - In November, stainless steel production decreased, mainly due to the reduction of 200 - series production, while 300 - series production remained basically flat [114] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased, and imports increased. Exports and imports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [117] 2.4 Inventory Side - Domestic stainless steel social inventory increased, with inventory of all series (200, 300, and 400) rising [123] 2.5 Outlook - Due to weak demand, loose fundamentals, and weakening costs, stainless steel prices are expected to continue to run weakly [125]