Report Overview - Report Title: Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Nickel and Stainless Steel [1] - Date: November 18, 2025 [3] - Analyst: Wu Jinheng [4] Investment Ratings - Nickel: Hold a wait - and - see stance, with an expected price range of 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [5][99] - Stainless Steel: Hold short positions, with an expected price range of 11,800 - 12,800 yuan/ton [6][125] Core Views - Nickel: Under macro - level pressure, the supply - demand fundamentals are loose and inventory is rising, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [5][99] - Stainless Steel: Weak demand, loose fundamentals, and weakening costs will keep stainless steel prices running weakly [6][125] Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel declined by 2.16% weekly, with trading volume dropping to 450,600 lots (- 95,900) and open interest falling to 112,200 lots (- 9,700). LME nickel fell 1.20% weekly, with trading volume rising to 41,100 lots (+ 3,600) [11] - The basis premium was 1,950 yuan/ton [13] 1.2 Supply Side Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained flat, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China was unchanged [21] - In September, the Philippines' nickel ore exports decreased. China's nickel ore imports reached 6.11 million tons, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease and a 33.9% year - on - year increase [26] - Last week, the nickel ore arrival volume decreased by 90,200 tons week - on - week, and port inventory decreased by 50,000 wet tons [28] Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron dropped by 12 yuan/nickel point, while the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron remained flat. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel narrowed, and the premium to scrap stainless steel widened [34] - In September, China's nickel pig iron imports were 1.085 million tons, a 24.2% month - on - month increase and a 47.2% year - on - year increase. Imports are expected to decline in October [39] - In November, domestic nickel pig iron production and capacity utilization declined, while those in Indonesia increased. Nickel pig iron inventory accumulated [47][49] Electrolytic Nickel - In November, the production and capacity utilization of refined nickel declined, and the import loss of electrolytic nickel widened [53][57] - In September, electrolytic nickel imports increased and exports decreased [61] 1.3 Demand Side Stainless Steel - In November, stainless steel production decreased, mainly due to the reduction of 200 - series production, while 300 - series production remained basically flat [66][114] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased by 6.6% month - on - month and 8.7% year - on - year, while imports increased by 2.7% month - on - month and 0.4% year - on - year. Exports and imports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [70][117] New Energy - The premium of battery - grade nickel sulfate to pure nickel widened, and the proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was extremely low [75] - In November, the production of ternary precursors decreased by 0.1% month - on - month but increased by 20.4% year - on - year, while the production of ternary materials increased by 1.4% month - on - month and 39.8% year - on - year [79] - In November, the production of nickel sulfate increased by 4.8% month - on - month and 23.4% year - on - year [81] - In October, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.772 million units, a 9.6% month - on - month increase and a 21.1% year - on - year increase; sales were 1.715 million units, a 6.9% month - on - month increase and a 19.9% year - on - year increase [87] 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE nickel inventory and LME nickel inventory both increased. Shanghai bonded - area pure nickel inventory remained flat, and the six - region social inventory increased by 3,981 tons [88][93] 1.5 Cost and Outlook - The cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate, nickel matte, and MHP decreased. MHP - integrated production of electrowon nickel has a significant cost advantage over nickel matte - integrated production [98] - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to macro - level pressure, loose fundamentals, and rising inventory [99] 2.1 Stainless Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless steel futures declined by 1.51% weekly, with the basis widening to 1,080 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 490,300 lots (unchanged), and open interest increased to 167,700 lots (+ 110,600) [102] 2.2 Cost and Profit - The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased, weakening cost support [105] - The profitability of 200 - series stainless steel improved, the losses of 300 - series widened, and 400 - series turned from loss to profit [110] 2.3 Fundamental Analysis - In November, stainless steel production decreased, mainly due to the reduction of 200 - series production, while 300 - series production remained basically flat [114] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased, and imports increased. Exports and imports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [117] 2.4 Inventory Side - Domestic stainless steel social inventory increased, with inventory of all series (200, 300, and 400) rising [123] 2.5 Outlook - Due to weak demand, loose fundamentals, and weakening costs, stainless steel prices are expected to continue to run weakly [125]