Core Viewpoint - Barclays Research anticipates that risk assets will receive stronger support, and the US dollar will continue to strengthen until 2026, despite market volatility due to uncertainties surrounding AI valuations, investment returns, and earnings growth [1] Group 1: US Dollar Outlook - The positive outlook for the US dollar is primarily based on significant AI capital expenditure plans in the US, which could have transformative impacts on the economy, geopolitics, and competition [1] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve are diminishing, tariff risks are easing, and fiscal stimulus measures are advancing, contributing to a positive momentum for the dollar expected to last until 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Even if risk sentiment deteriorates further, there is still potential for the dollar to appreciate against the yen, while high-beta emerging market currencies may face vulnerabilities [1]

申万宏源策略 【申万宏源策略】降息预期波动加大，美元走强使全球权益回调——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20251114- 20251121) 原创 阅读全文 ...

| 地区 | 92汽油 | 95汽油 | 98汽油 | 0号柴油 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 北京 | 6.94 | 7.39 | 8.89 | 6.62 | | 上海 | 6.91 | 7.35 | 9.25 | 6.56 | | 江苏 | 6.92 | 7.36 | 9.41 | 6.55 | | 天津 | 6.93 | 7.32 | 8.82 | 6.56 | | 重庆 | 7.01 | 7.41 | 8.95 | 6.65 | | 江西 | 6.91 | 7.41 | 8.91 | 6.62 | | 辽宁 | 7.03 | 7.52 | 8.19 | 6.49 | | 古川 八十九 | FOA | 7 10 | 0 00 | rra | | 文假 | 6.91 | 1.40 | 8.90 | 6.61 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 内蒙古 | 6.88 | 7.34 | 8.06 | 6.46 | | 福建 | 6.91 | 7.38 | 8.88 | 6.58 | | 宁夏 | 6.85 | 7.24 | 8.28 ...

下周怎么走？分析师提醒，站稳4200美元才有望冲击10月高点，跌破4146美元可能结束反弹。想入手或 变现的朋友，记得紧盯关键价位。 截至目前，伦敦现货黄金报4065美元/盎司，美黄金4102美元/盎司，国内实时金价928元/克。品牌金饰 价格超稳定，周大福、周大生等多品牌报1295元/克，老凤祥、老庙黄金1305元/克，黄金回收价915元/ 克。 11月23日黄金价格。 金价最新动态来啦！2025年11月17到23日，黄金迎来本月首次周跌，跌幅0.46%。虽然现货黄金一度冲 到4133美元的周高点，但受美元走强、降息预期降温影响，最终承压回落。 ...

（央视财经《天下财经》）韩国的能源和食品等高度依赖进口，近期韩元对美元汇率大幅下跌，不仅导 致韩国国内油价明显走高，进口物价也创9个月来最大涨幅。 财经频道特约记者 朱鸿钰：在韩国交易所，受隔夜美股下跌、外资持续出逃等因素影响，今天（21 日）首尔外汇市场上，韩元对美元汇率开盘报1472.4韩元兑换1美元，为7个月来的最低值。近期韩元对 美元汇率持续走弱，截至昨天（20日）收盘，韩元对美元汇率在一个月内下跌约3.43%。 编辑：令文芳 韩国开发研究院（KDI）分析指出，韩元对美元汇率每下跌1个百分点，消费者物价就会上升0.04个百 分点。 受韩元贬值影响，韩国进口物价指数自7月以来连续数月走高。韩国央行本月公布的最新数据显 示，10月进口物价指数较前一个月上涨1.9%，创下自今年1月以来的最大单月涨幅。通常情况下，进口 物价会在1-3个月对消费者物价产生影响，这意味着岁末年初，韩国物价面临的上行压力正进一步加 大。 转载请注明央视财经 分析指出，一方面是美联储短期内降息的可能性降低，导致美元走强；同时，近期外资大规模抛售韩 股，统计显示，截至20日的一个月里，外资在韩国主板市场上净卖出近10万亿韩元、约合人民 ...

从之后的走势看，昨日周四亚盘开盘后，黄金小幅冲高4110美元遇阻，回落4042美元企稳，反弹4085美 元遇阻，欧盘盘中再探日低至4038美元企稳，此后金价震荡回升，美盘开盘后涨至4107美元遇阻，回落 4043美元企稳，收盘前反弹4087美元遇阻。总体来看，黄金温和反弹遇阻，走势保持区间震荡运行。 分析，周三黄金冲高回落后，温和反弹走势遇阻，主要因美联储近期对外释放鹰派信号，打压降息预 期，市场减少对12月降息的押注，支撑美元持续走强，刷新最近半年新高，对金价反弹造成限制。周四 公布的美国9月非农数据好坏参半，虽然新增就业人数增加，但失业率上升，薪资增长放缓，市场对美 联储降息的预期小幅升温至35%，美联储维持利率不变的概率接近65%，黄金在数据公布后，继续保持 区间震荡走势。 尽管美国科技股面临高估值压力遭到市场抛售，并蔓延至亚欧市场，推动了黄金的温和反弹，但是美联 储打压降息预期，市场减少了对12月降息的押注，仍对金价形成压制，因此操作上建议大家，上方压力 关注4100和4132美元，若能进一步反弹，则关注4180美元，下方支撑关注4055和4020美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices have declined due to a strong dollar and concerns over weak demand, despite a year-to-date increase of approximately 22% [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 20, LME three-month copper fell by $14, or 0.13%, closing at $10,738.50 per ton [1][2]. - Other base metals showed mixed performance, with three-month aluminum up by $13 (0.46%) and three-month zinc up by $35 (1.17%), while three-month lead fell by $4.50 (0.22%) [2]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Concerns over weak demand persist, highlighted by a 13.62% month-on-month and 16.32% year-on-year decline in China's refined copper imports for October 2025 [5]. - Cochilco has raised its copper price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to historical highs due to weak production, now expecting an average price of $4.45 per pound for 2025 and $4.55 per pound for 2026 [5].

黄金昨天坐楼梯爬升后，突发跳水，直接坐上了过山车。直线跳水后，今天迎来二度闪跌，整体跌超90 美金，大起大落，持续高位调整，争夺4100关口。 昨天4129附近，再次空单获利。 今天的走势 下方回落，看向4040，看两个区域范围内的调整。 下方若持续回调，下穿4040，继续看向4000的关口的支撑。 昨天高台跳水，闪崩跌穿4100后。 今天反弹不延续，又是二度跳水。 直接跌至4040，迎来快涨调整。 快涨快跌，调整为主。 上方可看4100的关口，再上破，看向4142的阻力。 当然了，不破4100，继续承压调整。 黄金9月刷新高后，上演单边抛物线涨势，10月加速刷历史新高后。上演疯狂跳水过山车。到本月横盘 后，多头再度爆发，二度过山车跳水，走出两座大山，双山压制，重回调整区域，上方可调整空间，看 向4160的区域。下方再次回调，可看向4000的关口。 操作方面，黄金接连跳水，继续看承压调整，关注4142和4100做空的机会。此外，黄金下方面临关键支 撑区域，关注4040和4000做多的机会。 昨天主要因素： 一方面，美失业金爆雷，一个大的风险悄悄临近，美政府停摆1个月多月，美失业金多数大幅上修，裁 员数据剧增， ...

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals are currently under pressure due to a stronger dollar and changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies, but long-term trends such as global central bank gold purchases and potential impacts of U.S. debt issues on dollar credibility continue to support precious metals [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.29% to $4,078.30 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 1.08% to $51.07 per ounce [1]. - The platinum market is expected to experience a significant shortage for the third consecutive year, with a projected shortfall of 22 tons, revised down by 5 tons from previous estimates [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's October policy meeting revealed significant divisions among officials regarding interest rate decisions, with some suggesting that maintaining rates through 2025 may be appropriate, while others indicated that another rate cut in December could be likely if economic performance aligns with expectations [1]. Group 3: Employment Data - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that it will not release the October employment report, indicating that the non-farm employment data will be included in the November report instead [1].

Group 1 - Gold (XAU/USD) shows initial signs of strength but quickly loses momentum as market sentiment shifts, influenced by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials [1][2] - The expectation for immediate interest rate cuts has diminished, with the probability of a December rate cut falling below 50%, putting pressure on gold prices [2][3] - The strengthening of the US dollar, driven by adjustments in interest rate expectations, increases the purchasing cost of gold for international buyers, adding further pressure on gold prices [2][3] Group 2 - Key support level around $4000 has become crucial, coinciding with the lower boundary of an expanding wedge pattern, indicating technical buying interest remains [6] - If the wedge pattern holds, gold may consolidate in this area before attempting another upward move, with mid-term resistance at approximately $4150 [6] - The interplay of macroeconomic uncertainty and technical pressures keeps gold in a state of volatility, with future movements dependent on upcoming data and policy signals [6]