摘要8月26日，国内贵金属期货全线飘红，截止目前，沪金主力报价为780.80元/克，涨幅0.24%，沪银 主力报价为9370.00元/千克，涨幅0.28%；国际贵金属期全线飘红，COMEX黄金报价3422.50元/盎司， 涨幅0.34%，COMEX白银报价38.78美元/盎司，涨幅0.61%。 8月26日，国内贵金属期货全线飘红，截止目前，沪金主力报价为780.80元/克，涨幅0.24%，沪银主力 报价为9370.00元/千克，涨幅0.28%；国际贵金属期全线飘红，COMEX黄金报价3422.50元/盎司，涨幅 0.34%，COMEX白银报价38.78美元/盎司，涨幅0.61%。 【盘面分析】 今日贵金属期货价格行情（2026年8月26日） 8月25日，COMEX黄金高位震荡，报收3410.7美元/盎司，涨幅0.23%。国内SHFE金夜盘震荡上行，报 收779.92元/克，涨幅0.13%。本周重点关注后半周美国GDP数据及PCE数据，若数据表现不及预期，拉 动美联储降息预期升温，金价或仍有走强预期。 | 品种名称 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Market Overview - The market is currently focused on two main aspects: the stability of geopolitical situations following US-Russia talks and expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][2] - The outcome of the US-Russia talks remains unclear, which may reduce market demand for gold as a safe haven [1] Gold Market Analysis - Gold has broken below the key support level of 3330, indicating a shift to a bearish trend [2][3] - The current support levels for gold are identified at 3300 and 3280, with 3300 being a trendline support and 3280 being the lower Bollinger Band support [2] - If gold maintains above these support levels, there may still be potential for a bullish reversal [2] Silver Market Analysis - Silver has also transitioned from a strong consolidation phase to a bearish trend, with a recent close below 37.5 [3][4] - The next support level for silver is at 36.5, and the overall long-term trend remains bullish despite the current adjustments [3] Domestic Market Insights - In the domestic market, the Shanghai gold contract closed around 773, indicating limited downside potential in the short term [3] - The domestic silver market has shown a significant decline, with the Shanghai silver contract reaching a low of 9050 [4] Oil Market Analysis - The international oil market has seen a contract change to oilV25, with a current close around 62, and a critical support level at 61.2 [4] - If oil prices remain above 61.2, there is potential for a rebound, while a break below this level could lead to further bearish trends [4] Fuel Market Insights - The domestic fuel market has experienced a slow decline without significant momentum, closing around 2710 [4] - There is a need to observe if the market can establish a bottom and regain levels above 2800 for potential upward movement [4]

Group 1 - LME copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with investors remaining cautious due to mixed market signals affecting demand outlook [1] - The strong US dollar continues to weigh on base metals, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies [1] - China's seasonal demand hopes support copper prices, with three-month copper rising by 0.36% to $9,769 per ton [1] Group 2 - Analysts from BMI indicated that weak PMI data from the EU and the US could reinforce current demand concerns, while unexpectedly strong data might provide temporary support [1] - Peru, the world's third-largest copper producer, saw a 7.1% year-on-year increase in copper production in June [1] - China's refined copper production in July 2025 reached 1.27 million tons, a 14% year-on-year increase, with cumulative production from January to July at 8.623 million tons, up 9.9% year-on-year [1] Group 3 - Indonesia's July refined tin exports increased by 11.2% year-on-year to 3,792.22 tons, but were lower than June's 4,465 tons [2] - Other base metals saw varied price movements, with three-month aluminum down 0.79% to $2,568 per ton, nickel down 0.4% to $15,090 per ton, zinc down 0.34% to $2,767.5 per ton, lead up 0.1% to $1,973 per ton, and tin up 0.39% to $33,835 per ton [2]

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell by $40.5, or 0.41%, closing at $9,733.0 per ton on August 18, influenced by a stronger dollar and uncertainty surrounding key events in the U.S. [1] - The three-month aluminum price decreased by $18.5, or 0.71%, closing at $2,588.5 per ton, while zinc and lead also saw declines of 0.64% and 0.53% respectively [2][6] - The only metal to see an increase was tin, which rose by $8, or 0.02%, closing at $33,702 per ton, supported by low inventory levels [6] Group 2 - ING commodity strategist Ewa Manthey noted that the market is cautious ahead of the meeting between Trump and Zelensky, as well as the upcoming Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole meeting [4] - The U.S. has expanded tariffs on steel and aluminum, which officially took effect on August 18, impacting various products and potentially affecting metal prices [6] - Peru's copper production increased by 7.1% year-on-year in June, reaching 228,932 tons, indicating a positive trend in copper supply [5]

格隆汇8月1日｜美元正迈向近三年来最强劲的单周表现，在美国总统特朗普对数十个贸易伙伴实施新关 税税率后，周五继续保持上涨势头。本月美元走强很大程度上源于投资者的判断：特朗普关税既未破坏 经济，也未大幅推升通胀。尽管特朗普施压美联储主席鲍威尔降息，但美联储已表态不急于行动。IG 策略师Chris Beauchamp指出，在这种假设下，周五的非农就业报告可能不会产生太大影响，即便就业 数据疲弱引发美元等资产抛售。"美国经济基本面尚可，虽非最佳状态，关税只会造成轻微伤害。市场 短期可能面临抛压，但这只是资金暂时离场观望的借口，"Beauchamp表示，"除非9月前密集出现极其 糟糕的数据，否则很难重燃当月降息预期。" 来源：格隆汇APP ...

进一步，美联储主席鲍威尔在会后发布会上的表态也偏鹰，则给金价施加了更大的下行压力。鲍威尔 称，尽管当前充满不确定性，美国经济仍然处于稳健状态。失业率保持在较低水平，劳动力市场已达到 或接近最大就业状态。他认为，当前的货币政策立场让美联储有充足准备，在面对未来可能的经济变化 时能及时应对。尤其在货币政策方面，鲍威尔表示，尚未就9月会议作出任何决定。 鉴于美联储的政策决定并无意外，市场分析人士预计美联储今年的货币政策立场将比市场目前预期的略 显强硬。在鲍威尔讲话后，金价进一步扩大跌幅。 受金价回落和美铜期价大跌的影响，当天9月交割的白银期货价格下跌121美分，收于每盎司37.175美 元，跌幅为3.15%。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 具体来看，美国商务部30日公布的初步数据显示，2025年第二季度美国国内生产总值（GDP）环比按年 率计算增长3%，扭转一季度0.5%的负增长并大幅超过市场预期的2.5%的增幅。美国商务部表示，二季 度GDP增幅主要反映了进口的下降和消费支出的增加，投资和出口的下降则部分起到抵消 ...

Group 1 - Novo Nordisk significantly lowered its fiscal year performance guidance, reducing sales growth expectations for 2025 from 13-21% to 8-14% and EBIT profit growth from 16-24% to 10-16% due to lower GLP-1 sales expectations in the U.S. and asset impairment impacts [7][8] - Following the announcement, Novo Nordisk's stock price plummeted over 26% in pre-market trading, resulting in a market value loss exceeding $60 billion (approximately 430 billion RMB) within two hours [8] - The company appointed Maqziar Mike Dusseldorp as the new CEO [8] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market showed resilience, with the Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.37%, S&P 500 futures up 0.17%, and Dow futures up 0.02%, despite the volatility caused by Novo Nordisk [2] - Nvidia's stock price increased over 1% in pre-market trading, driven by demand rumors, indicating its continued leadership in the U.S. market [2] - The U.S. dollar strengthened, reaching a nearly five-week high, as market participants shifted focus from trade uncertainties to the resilience of the U.S. economy [4] Group 3 - Upcoming events include central bank meetings, earnings reports from major companies like Apple, and key economic data such as U.S. non-farm payrolls and PCE inflation, which are expected to create further market fluctuations [6] - The U.S. government’s tariff policy will face legal scrutiny on July 31, ahead of the August 1 tariff implementation date [6]

Group 1 - LME copper prices declined due to a stronger dollar and rising copper inventories in LME Asian warehouses [1] - As of July 17, LME three-month copper fell by 0.32% to $9,604 per ton, retreating from a three-month high of $10,020 per ton earlier in July [1] - Copper previously planned for shipment to the U.S. is being redirected back to the LME system due to a 50% import tariff announced by the U.S. effective August 1 [1] Group 2 - The increase in LME copper inventories alleviated concerns about recent supply shortages, reflected in the widening discount of spot copper contracts compared to three-month forward contracts, which expanded to $64.5 per ton from a premium of $320 per ton three weeks ago [1] - China's refined copper production for June 2025 was reported at 1.302 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, with a cumulative production of 7.363 million tons for the first half of the year, up 9.5% year-on-year [1] Group 3 - Other LME metal prices showed mixed performance, with three-month tin stable at $32,785 per ton, while zinc, lead, nickel, and aluminum experienced declines of 0.26%, 0.28%, 0.31%, and 0.43% respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The New York Federal Reserve President Williams stated that there is no evidence of a significant shift away from dollar assets by investors, indicating continued strength in the dollar [1] Group 1 - Factors supporting the strength of the dollar remain intact, suggesting a stable outlook for dollar-denominated investments [1] - An increasing number of investors are hedging against dollar risk exposure, reflecting a cautious approach in the current economic environment [1] - There is still a considerable distance to reach the 2% inflation target, indicating ongoing economic challenges that may affect investment strategies [1]

Current Gold Price Dynamics - International gold prices have been on a downward trend, with the New York Commodity Exchange's August gold futures closing at $3,336.7 per ounce on July 15, down 0.67% for the day [1] - The price was $3,359.1 per ounce on July 14, reflecting a daily decline of 0.15% [3] - As of July 16, the Asian market price hovered around $3,333 per ounce, with short-term support at $3,320 and resistance at $3,370 [4] Domestic Gold Jewelry Price Decline - Major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang have seen their gold jewelry prices drop to between 984 and 1,008 yuan per gram, with some brands experiencing a decline of over 6 yuan per gram within two days [5] - In the Shenzhen Shui Bei wholesale market, gold prices have fallen to 756 yuan per gram, a drop of over 4% from previous highs [5] Core Reasons for Price Decline - The strengthening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields has pressured gold prices, with the US June CPI rising 2.7%, leading to a near-zero probability of a Fed rate cut in July [5] - The easing of geopolitical tensions, such as the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel and a temporary reduction in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has shifted market risk appetite towards equities [6] - Technical selling intensified after gold prices fell below the critical support level of $3,350, triggering stop-loss sell orders [7] - Global gold ETFs have seen net outflows for two consecutive months, with a reduction of 19 tons in May, indicating a shift in institutional investor positions [8] Future Trends and Divergent Views - Bearish View: The decline in geopolitical premiums and technical breakdowns could lead to deeper corrections if the economy achieves a "soft landing," with Citigroup predicting a target price of $2,500 to $2,700 by 2026 [9] - Cautiously Bullish View: Concerns over the weakening dollar and increased gold purchases by global central banks (244 tons added in Q1 2025) suggest potential upward movement, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a target of $3,700 by the end of 2025 [9] - Neutral View: A weak adjustment driven by sentiment in Q3, with potential strength in Q4, with Tokai Futures predicting a range of $2,900 to $3,600 for the year [9] - Key technical levels include support at $3,245, $3,200, and $3,180, with resistance at $3,315 to $3,330 [9] Impact and Recommendations - For consumers, those with wedding needs may consider the Shenzhen Shui Bei wholesale market for lower labor costs, while non-urgent buyers are advised to wait for traditional low-price windows [10] - For investors, it is recommended to build positions gradually through gold ETFs or bank gold savings, with a suggested allocation of 5%-10% of household assets in gold as an inflation hedge [10] - Short-term strategies include light short positions around the $3,315 to $3,330 resistance zone, with strict stop-loss measures [10] Recovery and Liquidation - The recent recovery price is approximately 748 yuan per gram as of July 16, providing an opportunity for holders of idle gold jewelry to liquidate during price rebounds [11]