美联储降息预期转鹰
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沪铜日评:美联储降息预期转鹰或压制铜价-20251106
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 02:09
Report Title - The daily report of Shanghai copper on November 6, 2025: The Fed's hawkish shift in interest - rate cut expectations may suppress copper prices [2] Core View - Multiple copper mines at home and abroad have production disturbances, leading to a continuously negative import index of copper concentrates in China, indicating a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month. However, due to the Fed's hawkish shift in interest - rate cut expectations and the strengthening of the US dollar index, the price of Shanghai copper may be adjusted [3]. Key Data Summary Shanghai Copper Futures - Closing price of the active contract: 85,670 on November 5, 2025, down 70 from the previous day [3]. - Trading volume: 142,332 lots on November 5, 2025, a 24.41% decrease from the previous day [3]. - Open interest: 217,024 lots on November 5, 2025, down 10,525 from the previous day [3]. - Inventory: 42,561 tons on November 5, 2025, up 1,414 tons from the previous day [3]. London Copper - Closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading): 10,733 on November 5, 2025, up 84 from the previous day [3]. - LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract spread: - 38.37 on November 5, 2025, down 7.92 from the previous day [3]. - LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contract spread: 63.68 on November 5, 2025, down 1.49 from the previous day [3]. COMEX Copper - Closing price of the active copper futures contract: 4.989 on November 5, 2025, down 0.06 from the previous day [3]. - Total inventory: 363,368 on November 5, 2025, up 4,882 from the previous day [3]. Supply - Demand and Inventory Situation Supply - Supply side: Multiple copper mines at home and abroad have production disturbances, resulting in a continuously negative import index of copper concentrates in China, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month [3]. Demand - Demand side: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, and brass rods have decreased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rates of recycled copper rods, copper strips, and copper tubes have increased compared with last week [3]. Inventory - Inventory side: The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China has increased compared with last week. The inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange has decreased compared with last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased compared with last week [3]. Trading Strategy - Hold previous short positions cautiously. Pay attention to the support levels around 81,000 - 83,000 and the resistance levels around 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, the support levels are around 10,200 - 10,500 and the resistance levels are around 11,500 - 12,000. For US copper, the support levels are around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance levels are around 5.5 - 6.0 [3].