沪铜日评20250825: 国内铜冶炼厂9月检修产能或环增,国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少 | 变量名称 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | 2025-08-22 | 2025-08-21 | 2025-08-14 | 收盘价 | 78690 | 150.00 | 78540 | 78950 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 成交量(手) | 37910 | 43058 | 51734 | -5.148.00 | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 持仓量(手) | -7,132.00 | 120902 | 128034 | 152341 | | 库存(吨) | 241 48 | 25157 | 24434 | -1.009.00 | SMM 1#电解铜平均价 | 78830 | 78800 | 79435 | 30. 00 | | | 沪铜基差 | 260 | 140 | 485 | -120.00 | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 | 厂州电解铜现货升贴水 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 0. 00 | | (现货与期货 ...

研究报告 铜周报 美联储主席暗示可能下月降息，沪铜或震荡偏强运行 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | 有色板块研究员：刘江 | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 | | | | | 电话：0931-8582647 | | | | | 邮箱：451591573@qq.com | | | | | 报告日期：2025 年 8 | 月 | 25 | 日星期一 | 摘要： 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 25 日星期一 国家统计局数据显示，7 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实 际增长 5.7%（增加值增速均为扣除价格因素的实际增长率）。从 环比看，7 月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.38%。1—7 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.3%。美国联邦储备委员会 主席鲍威尔 22 日在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的年度经济研讨会 上发表讲话，暗示尽管当前存在通胀上行风险，但美联储仍 ...

等待新的驱动 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 19 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜低开低走承压下行。杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会在本周四举行，市场博弈美 联储降息情况，预计鲍威尔在杰克森霍尔年会上将谨慎决策、避免大幅宽松。俄乌局势 好转，市场避险情绪降温。供给方面，5 月精炼铜产量同比增长 14.0%，精铜矿港口库存 去化至近五年低位水平，冶炼厂 TC/RC 费用继续企稳回升，长协订单有盈利，现货订单 依然亏损，硫酸价目前处于历史同期高位水平，支撑冶炼厂利润，目前 8 月仅 1 家冶炼 厂有检修计划，且华东新投产的冶炼厂开始生产，预计精铜产量波动幅度不大，冶炼厂 三季度后期或因矿端资源偏紧及硫酸胀库而减产停产。需求方面，下游需求表现为不温 不火，新增订单有增加，市场成交量环比减少，房地产依然拖累下游需求，1-7 月房地 产开发投资同比下降 12%，新建商品房销售面积同比下降 4%。但电网及新能源带来需求 韧性。上期所库存本周表现为累库，反映了短期内需求疲软，供需宽松的格局。综合来 看，市场博弈美联储降息预期，基本面情况暂无较大改变，市场等待新的驱动，下方 78000 元/吨支撑，关注周四杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会。 投资有 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The domestic copper smelter's maintenance capacity in August may decrease month-on-month, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased month-on-month. The US port inflation rebound reduces the Fed's expected number of interest rate cuts, but the decrease in scrap copper anode plates and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory may cause the Shanghai copper price to fluctuate. It is recommended that investors wait and see. Pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Data - On August 15, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 79,060 yuan, up 110 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 50,116 lots, down 1,618 lots; the open interest was 152,557 lots, up 216 lots; the inventory was 24,560 tons, up 126 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,180 yuan, down 255 yuan [2] - The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic disk) on August 15, 2025, was 9,760 US dollars, down 17 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, down 155,800 tons [2] - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on August 15, 2025, was 4.489 US dollars, down 0.01 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory weight was 267,195 tons, up 400 tons [2] Zambia Copper Production - Zambia, the second - largest copper producer in Africa, had a copper production of about 439,644 tons in the first six months of 2025. Assuming no revision in the first - quarter production of about 224,000 tons, the second - quarter production was about 215,644 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of about 4%. Four producers had problems in the second quarter. To reach the 1 - million - ton target set by the government this year, the production in the second half of the year needs to increase by about 27% [2] Industry News - Jiangxi Heli Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. plans to invest 197.66065 million yuan to relocate and upgrade its existing project to build an annual 200,000 - ton recycled electrolytic copper project in Jiangxi Qianshan County Industrial Park [3] - Jiangxi Linghao New Material Technology Co., Ltd. plans to build an annual 500,000 - ton steelmaking furnace charge and 200,000 - ton copper - aluminum recycling project in De'an County, with a total investment of 200 million yuan and environmental protection investment of 1.31 million yuan [3] - On August 14, 2025, the environmental impact assessment of Jiangxi Hefan Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd.'s annual 200,000 - ton recycled electrolytic copper project was accepted for public notice, with a public notice period from August 14 to August 27, 2025 [5] Copper Product Industry Analysis - The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and enameled wires in East China has increased compared with last week, affecting the capacity utilization rate of copper products. The capacity utilization rate of different copper products may change in August. For example, the capacity utilization rate of electrolytic copper rods, copper foils, and brass rods may increase, while that of recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, and copper tubes may decrease [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The macro - environment shows the US dollar oscillating at a low level, which boosts non - ferrous metals. However, the copper market's fundamental demand is weak, failing to support a market rebound. Currently, copper prices remain in a narrow - range fluctuation, awaiting market drivers. The downstream demand is insufficiently supported, with high - temperature and rainy weather affecting downstream terminal demand, and the real - estate sector dragging down the market, while the power grid performs well. Although there is no significant inventory build - up in the SHFE after the copper tariff implementation, overall demand remains tepid [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - **Macro Data**: The US July producer price index (PPI) had a 0.9% month - on - month increase, the largest in three years, and a 3.3% year - on - year increase, both exceeding market expectations [1]. - **Supply**: The Indonesian smelter's maintenance was extended to mid - August. In July, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. As of August 8, the TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rebound. There is no sign of a decline in copper production, and the smelter's production enthusiasm is fair. Only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August [1]. - **Demand**: High - temperature and rainy weather has led to weak downstream terminal demand. Rising copper prices have dampened downstream purchasing sentiment. The power grid performs well, but the real - estate sector is a drag. There is no significant inventory build - up in the SHFE after the copper tariff implementation, which supports domestic copper prices to some extent [1]. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The Shanghai copper futures opened low, rose during the day, and faced pressure. The closing price was 79,060 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 increased by 2,322 to 101,223 lots, and the short positions increased by 10 to 100,094 lots [5]. - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China was 180 yuan/ton, and in South China was 25 yuan/ton. On August 14, 2025, the LME official price was $9,751/ton, with a spot premium of - $85.5/ton [5]. Supply - side As of August 8, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $37.98/tonne dry, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 3.79 cents/pound [7]. Fundamental Tracking - **Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory was 24,600 tons, an increase of 126 tons from the previous period. As of August 14, Shanghai Free Trade Zone copper inventory was 80,700 tons, an increase of 4,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, a slight decrease of 50 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 266,800 short tons, an increase of 9 short tons from the previous period [10].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The suspension of a 24% ad - valorem tariff on Chinese goods (including those from Hong Kong and Macau) for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025, and the US CPI data will impact US inflation and the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts. The supply side remains at a high level, with increased copper concentrate imports, and the demand side is in the off - season. The market is currently in a narrow - range fluctuation, waiting for new drivers [1]. - The LME copper inventory has significantly increased, overseas Chilean copper mines resumed operations on the 10th, while the domestic inventory is low and the smelters' profit is negative. The demand side is in the off - season, and downstream buyers prefer low - priced goods. The market is mainly in the range - bound fluctuation [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply: The maintenance of an Indonesian smelter was extended until mid - August. In July, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. As of August 8, the domestic spot TC was - 37.98 dollars per dry ton, and RC was - 3.79 cents per pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rebound. There is currently no sign of a decline in copper production, and only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August [1]. - Demand: Due to the hot and rainy weather, the downstream terminal demand is weak. The rise in copper prices has suppressed the downstream's purchasing sentiment. The terminal power grid performs well, but the construction and real estate sectors are a drag. The SHFE inventory has not significantly increased after the copper tariff was implemented, which supports the domestic copper price to some extent [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened low and closed high, showing a strong intraday oscillation, with the closing price at 79,020 yuan per ton. The long positions of the top 20 were 99,690 lots, a decrease of 1,886 lots; the short positions were 102,345 lots, a decrease of 3,260 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 140 yuan per ton, and in South China was 5 yuan per ton. On August 11, 2025, the LME official price was 9,722 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was 78.50 dollars per ton [4]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory was 26,300 tons, an increase of 3,021 tons from the previous period. As of August 11, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,200 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory was 155,000 tons, a slight decrease of 700 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory was 265,200 short tons, an increase of 1,056 short tons from the previous period [9].

沪铜日评20250808: 国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环碱,国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少 | 2 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 变量名称 | 2025-08-07 | 2025-08-06 | 2025-07-30 | 较昨日变动 | 近期定势 | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 78460 | 78280 | 78930 | 180.00 | | | | 成交量(手) | 42710 | 26388 | 55888 | -13.679.00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 157601 | 158574 | 171689 | -973.00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 20145 | 20346 | 19973 | -201.00 | | | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 | SMM 1#电解铜平均价 | 78500 | 78350 | 79285 | 150.00 | | | | 沪铜县差 | 40 | 70 | 355 | -30.00 - | | | (现货与期货) | 广州电解铜现货升贴水 | -45 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - US employment market weakness boosts Fed's interest rate cut expectations, but the traditional domestic consumption off - season suppresses downstream demand, and the total inventory of domestic and foreign electrolytic copper fluctuates upward, suggesting that Shanghai copper prices may still have room to fall. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to support and resistance levels [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,400 yuan, up 360 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 80,943 lots, down 28,068 lots; open interest was 167,671 lots, down 8,522 lots; inventory was 20,349 tons, up 727 tons; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,330 yuan, down 235 yuan [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The Shanghai copper basis was -70 yuan, down 595 yuan; Guangzhou electrolytic copper spot premium was -15 yuan, up 5 yuan; North China electrolytic copper spot premium was -120 yuan, down 10 yuan; East China electrolytic copper spot premium was 35 yuan, unchanged; the spread between near - month and continuous - first Shanghai copper was -10 yuan, down 70 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,633 US dollars, up 26 US dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, down 141,750 tons; the spread of LME copper futures 0 - 3 months contract was -49.25 US dollars, up 1.51 US dollars; the spread of LME copper futures 3 - 15 months contract was -142.93 US dollars, down 15.18 US dollars; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.1387, up 0.02 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.443 US dollars, down 0.19 US dollars; the total inventory was 259,681 tons, up 3,733 tons [2]. Industry News - **Policy Impact**: Due to the US government's decision on July 30, 2025, to exempt imported electrolytic copper from tariffs, the spread between COMEX copper and LME copper collapsed, leading a large amount of electrolytic copper to be transferred to the LME delivery warehouse in New Orleans [2]. - **Company Expansion**: Codelco planned to invest $5.7 billion in 2022 to expand El Teniente. As of March 31, 2025, the Andes Norte project was 73% complete, the Andesita project was 70% complete and started operation in February 2025, and the Diamante project was 43% complete. The expansion is expected to add 2 - 3 tons of copper production in 2025 and reach 15 tons after full - production, with the annual output expected to reach 50 tons after all projects are put into operation [2]. - **Accident**: A Chilean earthquake caused a casualty accident at Codelco's El Teniente copper mine, resulting in 6 deaths and halting nearby activities for investigation [2]. Investment Strategy - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged in January. Import tariffs pushed up commodity prices, causing an increase in the annual rates of US consumer - end inflation CPI and core CPI in June. Due to the possible significant downward revision or far - below - expected new non - farm payrolls in June - July, the US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, increasing the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts in September, October, and December [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In August, the domestic production (import) of copper concentrates increased month - on - month, the import index of Chinese copper concentrates was negative and higher than the previous week, and the port copper concentrate throughput (in - port, inventory) in the world (China) decreased (increased, decreased) compared with the previous week. The restriction on high - quality scrap steel exports in Europe and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff negotiations affected scrap copper imports, and the import window for scrap copper was closed. Some copper smelters suspended production, and domestic smelters' rough - smelting maintenance capacity in August may decrease month - on - month, which may lead to an increase in domestic rough copper production (import) in August [2]. - **Trading Advice**: Hold previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and COMEX copper [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in precious metals prices, particularly gold and silver, following the U.S. non-farm payroll report and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1] Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold increased by 2.20% to $3362.15 per ounce, maintaining gains since the U.S. non-farm payroll report [1] - Gold futures for October on COMEX rose by 2% to $3415.70 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 0.69% [1] - Gold prices had previously dropped to $3268.18 per ounce after Powell's press conference on July 30 [1] Group 2: Silver Market - Spot silver rose by 0.88% to $37.0355 per ounce, but experienced a weekly decline of 2.95% [1] - COMEX silver futures increased by 1.03% to $37.090 per ounce, with a weekly drop of 3.30% [1] Group 3: Copper Market - COMEX copper futures saw a rise of 0.46% to $4.4435 per pound, but faced a significant weekly decline of 23.19% [1] - The copper market exhibited a Z-shaped trend, with high volatility observed from July 28 to July 30 [1]

Core Insights - Gold prices increased by 2.20% to $3362.15 per ounce, maintaining gains since the U.S. non-farm payroll report, with a weekly increase of 0.74% [1] - COMEX gold futures for October rose by 2% to $3415.70 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 0.69% [1] - The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index rose by 1.12% to 206.50 points, but experienced a weekly decline of 3.41% [1] Precious Metals Performance - Spot silver increased by 0.88% to $37.0355 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 2.95% [1] - COMEX silver futures rose by 1.03% to $37.090 per ounce, also reflecting a weekly drop of 3.30% [1] - Spot platinum rose by 2.00% to $1317.90 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 6.34% [1] - Spot palladium increased by 0.99% to $1210.61 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 1.22% [1] Copper Market - COMEX copper futures rose by 0.46% to $4.4435 per pound, but showed a significant weekly decline of 23.19% [1] - The overall market exhibited a Z-shaped trend, with high volatility observed from July 28 to July 30, followed by a sharp drop and subsequent low-level fluctuations [1]