Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper price is under pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar index. The supply of copper is expected to reach a record high in March, and the demand from downstream industries is gradually increasing. However, the inventory is still in the process of accumulation, and the increase rate has slowed down. The market trading has gradually warmed up, and the spot discount has turned into a premium. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have declined year-on-year. Overall, the copper price is expected to remain volatile and weak in the short term due to the uncertainty of the Middle East situation and the impact of inflation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Futures**: The Shanghai copper futures opened lower and moved higher, showing a weak trend during the day [1][4]. - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China is 70 yuan/ton, and the spot premium in South China is 100 yuan/ton. On March 11, 2026, the LME official price was 1,2949 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was -985 US dollars/ton [4]. 3.2 Supply Side - As of March 9, the spot smelting fee (TC) was -56.10 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was -5.70 US cents/pound [8]. - The copper production in March is expected to increase by about 52,800 tons month-on-month and 6.51% year-on-year. It is expected that the production in March may reach a record high [1]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - **Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory is 326,300 tons, an increase of 5,911 tons from the previous period. As of March 9, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 87,600 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory is 302,100 tons, an increase of 10,125 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory is 592,500 short tons, a decrease of 2,033 short tons from the previous period [11]. - **Downstream Demand**: The operating rate of the copper cable industry in February was 55.81%, a decrease of 14.29 percentage points month-on-month and an increase of 9.06 percentage points year-on-year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles in February decreased year-on-year, with production and sales of 694,000 and 796,000 vehicles respectively, a year-on-year decline of 21.8% and 14.2%. The sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 42.4% of the total sales of new vehicles [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has shifted from a one - sided bullish trading logic of "supply shortage + emerging demand explosion" to a volatile adjustment logic of "high inventory + macro uncertainty". High inventory is dragging down near - month contracts, and macro expectations are affecting far - month contracts, with both near - term concerns and long - term apprehensions [2]. - The current stage of cathode copper and LME copper is the early stage of an upward trend at a cyclical low. The risk - return ratio of going long on Shanghai copper is 1.53%, and that of going long on LME copper is 1.67%, both indicating a moderate risk - return ratio and suggesting moderate participation [2][9]. - The copper price has switched from the pre - holiday pattern of "AI demand + tariff siphon + supply shortage" to a volatile adjustment pattern of "high inventory suppression + macro uncertainty + strong US dollar". Next week, the copper price will continue to be in a game between high - inventory reality and peak - season expectations. The mid - to - late March is a key window to verify the inventory inflection point. If destocking starts as expected, the copper price is expected to stabilize and rebound; if inventory accumulation continues, the risk of a second correction should be watched out for [55]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Contradictions**: The market trading logic has changed. The post - holiday market is in the inventory accumulation stage, and the start - up rate of industrial chain enterprises is gradually recovering. High inventory and macro expectations affect different contracts, and the inter - month spread has significantly narrowed [2]. - **Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations**: - **Market Positioning**: The latest price quantile of Shanghai copper is 99.5%, with a one - week annualized volatility of 19.21%, higher than last week and the historical volatility of 18.01%. The latest price quantile of LME copper is 99.1%, with a one - week annualized volatility of 14.8%, higher than last week but lower than the historical volatility of 20.28% [9]. - **Trend Judgment**: Cathode copper and LME copper are in the early stage of an upward trend at a cyclical low [9]. - **Price Range**: The price range of Shanghai copper is [99,605, 105,151], with a price center of 102,378; the price range of LME copper is [12,669, 13,514], with a price center of 13,091 [9]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: The risk - return ratio of going long on Shanghai copper is 1.53% (moderate risk - return ratio, moderate participation), and that of going long on LME copper is 1.67% (moderate risk - return ratio, moderate participation) [9]. - **Basis (Premium/Discount), Month - Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: - **Basis Strategy**: Neutral. The inventory narrative has reversed, the macro weight has increased, and the AI narrative has weakened [11]. - **Month - Spread Strategy**: Neutral. The main fluctuation range of the spread between the first - and third - month contracts is [-100, 250], and the current spread is -220, with an expected probability of spread expansion of 44% and contraction of 56% [12]. - **Cross - Border Spread Strategy**: Pay attention to cross - market reverse arbitrage. The current Shanghai - LME ratio is 7.86, at the 42% historical quantile. Key influencing factors include the US dollar index, LME copper inventory, and fund net long positions [12]. - **Enterprise Hedging Strategy Recommendations**: For enterprises with low raw material inventory and post - holiday replenishment needs, considering the expected increase in price volatility, futures can be used to build positions in batches near support levels, and over - the - counter options can be used to buy upward - knock - out cumulative options [19]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Event Interpretations - **This Week's Important Information**: - **Positive Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission plans to deepen the "AI +" action, and the scale of AI - related industries will exceed 10 trillion yuan by the end of the 15th Five - Year Plan. Consumption and investment policies will be strengthened. Chile's copper exports to China showed a low - level rebound in February [20]. - **Negative Information**: LME copper inventory increased by 20,675 tons to 282,200 tons, the largest increase since August 2024. Domestic social copper inventory continued to accumulate, and the US dollar strengthened [21][22]. - **Industrial Chain Dynamics**: MMG's Khoemacau copper mine expansion project started, and the company is seeking mergers and acquisitions. Jiangxi Copper plans to acquire SolGold. Capstone Copper had a record - high income in Q4 2025 and expects 2026 copper production to be between 200,000 - 230,000 tons [23][24]. - **Next Week's Key Event Interpretations**: A series of macro - economic indicators will be released next week, including China's CPI, PPI, and the US CPI, PCE, etc. [27] 3.3 Disk Price - Volume and Capital Interpretations - **Domestic Market Interpretation**: Affected by the conflict and macro factors, copper prices in the domestic market fell in both price and volume, breaking through key support levels. The trading volume of the Shanghai copper weighted index decreased by 17.8% week - on - week, and the position increased by 0.24%. The inter - month spread of Shanghai copper narrowed, and the exchange may enter a destocking cycle [30]. - **Foreign Market Interpretation**: LME copper and Comex copper also showed a trend of volume contraction and consolidation. The LME copper price fluctuated in the range of [12,722, 13,433] and closed at 12,869 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decline of 1.65%. The Comex copper price fluctuated in the range of [574.7, 609.55] and closed at 583.75 cents/pound, with a week - on - week decline of 2.13%. The LME term structure showed a slight premium in the long - term, and the LC spread was in an inverted state [33][34]. 3.4 Spot Price and Profit Analysis - **Spot Price and Smelting Profit**: In the second half of the week, the decline in copper spot prices widened, and the discount narrowed. The smelting income of refined copper spot decreased week - on - week. The开工 rate of copper processing enterprises rebounded significantly, and the demand for downstream products increased [38][39]. - **Import Profit and Import Volume**: The copper import profit and recycled copper import profit increased week - on - week. The Shanghai - LME ratio rebounded, and the copper import window opened. The bonded - area inventory decreased [41]. - **Inventory Analysis**: After the holiday, domestic copper inventory accumulated rapidly, LME copper inventory increased significantly, and Comex copper inventory increased at a slower pace and continued to flow out slightly. The global visible copper inventory reached 1.307 million tons [44]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Deduction and Price Expectations - **Supply Deduction**: In March, China's electrolytic copper production is expected to increase by 52,800 tons month - on - month to 1.1968 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.51%. However, there will be concentrated maintenance of smelters from April to May, which is expected to lead to a decline in production [49]. - **Demand Expectations**: After the Spring Festival, the start - up rate of most copper processing enterprises rebounded. The start - up rates of electrolytic copper rod, copper strip, copper tube, brass rod, and copper cable enterprises in March all increased compared with the previous period [52]. - **Price Expectations**: The copper price will continue to be in a game between high - inventory reality and peak - season expectations. If destocking starts as expected, the copper price may rebound; otherwise, there is a risk of a second correction. Industrial customers can consider inventory hedging or procurement according to the price and inventory situation, and speculative customers can consider a volatility recovery strategy [55].

Group 1 - Gold prices increased by 1.75% to reach $5275.82 per ounce, approaching the historical high of $5595.47 set on January 29, with a cumulative increase of 7.84% in February [1] - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.64% to $5279.60 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 11.27% in February [1] - Silver prices surged by 6.33% to $93.8333 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 10.11% in February [1] Group 2 - COMEX silver futures increased by 7.67% to $94.300 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 19.28% in February [1] - COMEX copper futures rose by 0.61% to $6.0630 per pound, with a cumulative increase of 1.35% in February [1] - Platinum prices increased by 7.19% to $2369.00 per ounce, while palladium prices rose by 4.56% to $1790.59 per ounce in February [1]

Group 1 - The spot gold price increased by 0.41% to $5186.18 per ounce, after hitting a daily low of $5130.91 [1] - COMEX gold futures fell by 0.45% to $5202.80 per ounce, with a low of $5144.80 during the day [1] - The spot silver price decreased by 0.88% to $88.4490 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures dropped by 2.74% to $89.120 per ounce [1] - COMEX copper futures declined by 0.28% to $6.0280 per pound, reaching a low of $5.9640 [1] - The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index rose by 2.71% to 462.76 points, marking a new closing historical high [1] - The NYSE ARCA Gold Miners Index increased by 1.79% to 3244.63 points, also achieving a new closing historical high [1]

Market Overview - On February 25, 2026, the international precious metals market experienced a significant divergence, with spot gold prices falling by 1.49% to $5149.92 per ounce, while COMEX copper futures surged by 2.05% to $5.9610 per pound [1][3] Gold and Silver Market Dynamics - Prior to the decline, gold prices had stabilized around $5160, but ultimately closed at $5149.92, with COMEX gold futures down 1.12% [3] - The recent price fluctuations are not isolated; gold had recently surpassed the $5000 mark on February 20, 2026, following a dramatic rise of 17.7% from January 19 to 28, 2026 [3] - The volatility was exacerbated by a significant drop on January 30, 2026, where gold plummeted by 9.25% in a single day, marking the largest daily decline in 43 years [3] - Silver prices showed contrasting movements, with COMEX silver futures rising by 0.57% while spot silver fell [3] Federal Reserve Influence - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are a key source of market volatility, as evidenced by the January meeting minutes revealing a 9-3 vote on interest rates, highlighting a split between inflation concerns and economic growth risks [4] - The nomination of hawkish Kevin Walsh as Fed Chair disrupted market expectations for aggressive rate cuts, leading to a 0.9% surge in the dollar index, which increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [6] Economic Data Impact - U.S. inflation data showed a year-on-year CPI increase of 2.4%, the lowest since May 2025, while core CPI rose by 2.5%, the slowest since March 2021, briefly reigniting hopes for Fed rate cuts [7] - Strong employment data for January, with 130,000 new jobs added, countered these hopes, creating further uncertainty in the market [7] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical risks remain a significant variable for the precious metals market, particularly with ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, which have seen both sides reach a general consensus but still face substantial differences [7] Copper Market Dynamics - The rise in copper prices is driven by industrial demand, particularly from the green transition, with electric vehicles requiring significantly more copper than traditional vehicles [10] - The global demand for copper is expected to increase by approximately 160,000 tons due to the anticipated sales of 32 million new energy vehicles in 2026 [10] - The explosion of AI data centers is also contributing to copper demand, with predictions of a 48% year-on-year increase in copper requirements for these facilities [10] Silver Supply Constraints - The supply of silver is facing rigid constraints, with about 70% of global silver being a byproduct of other metals, and a new export control policy in China expected to reduce global supply by 4,500 to 5,000 tons annually, equating to a 15% decrease [11] - High silver prices are impacting downstream industries, with the cost of silver paste in photovoltaic components rising from below 10% to 30% of production costs, prompting companies to accelerate the development of silver-reducing technologies [13] Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central bank gold purchases have provided unprecedented support to the gold market, with net purchases exceeding 1,100 tons in 2025 and expected to remain high at 755 tons in 2026 [13] - Continuous accumulation of gold reserves by the People's Bank of China over the past 14 months has acted as a stabilizing force during market volatility [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent performance of precious metals, with gold and silver showing notable increases in their prices [1] - Spot gold rose by 0.52% to $5171.48 per ounce, maintaining stability around $5180 for most of the time [1] - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.22% to $5188.50 per ounce, reaching a daily high of $5237.30 [1] Group 2 - Spot silver saw a rise of 2.67%, priced at $89.4791 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 2.28% to $90.135 per ounce [1] - COMEX copper futures rose by 0.93% to $6.0470 per pound, later increasing to $6.0675 after the resumption of trading [1] - Spot platinum surged by 5.41%, and spot palladium increased by 0.85% [1]

Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Spot gold increased by 0.52%, closing at $5171.48 per ounce, remaining stable around $5180 for most of the time [1][8] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.22%, reaching $5188.50 per ounce, with a daily high of $5237.30 recorded at 01:12 Beijing time [1][8] - Spot silver surged by 2.67%, priced at $89.4791 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures climbed 2.28% to $90.135 per ounce [2][9] - Spot platinum saw a significant increase of 5.41%, and spot palladium rose by 0.85% [4][11] Group 2: Market Indices - The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index closed up by 0.25%, at 450.53 points [5][12] - The ARCA Gold Miners Index on the New York Stock Exchange increased by 0.72%, closing at 3187.56 points [6][13] - The materials index in the U.S. stock market fell by 0.27%, while the metals and mining index rose by 1.87% [7][14] Group 3: Copper Market - COMEX copper futures increased by 0.93%, priced at $6.0470 per pound, and rose to $6.0675 after the CME resumed trading [3][10]

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) experienced a technical failure that interrupted trading in its natural gas and metals futures markets for over half an hour, coinciding with the expiration of the March natural gas futures contract, raising concerns about market stability [1][9]. Group 1: Incident Details - The CME announced the suspension of trading in the metals and natural gas futures and options markets at 12:15 PM CT on February 25, following a technical issue reported at 12:11 PM CT [3][4]. - Trading in the natural gas futures market resumed at 12:50 PM CT, while the metals futures market was delayed until 1:45 PM CT [1][5]. - All day orders and GTD (Good Till Date) orders for the day were canceled, while GTC (Good Till Canceled) orders remained valid [1][5]. Group 2: Market Impact - The timing of the failure was particularly sensitive as it disrupted the normal settlement process for the March natural gas futures contract, creating additional uncertainty for traders [9]. - This incident marked the second trading interruption in the CME's natural gas futures market within a month, following a two-minute halt on January 27 during a record price surge [9]. - Market participants expressed concerns about the stability of CME's trading systems, especially during critical pricing windows, as any failure could significantly impact institutional investors relying on futures for pricing and risk management [9].

Core Viewpoint - International crude oil prices have continued their strong performance since the Spring Festival, with Brent crude futures experiencing the highest increase in 13 years during this period, driven primarily by geopolitical tensions rather than supply-demand fundamentals [1][2]. Geopolitical Influence - The current rise in international oil prices has diverged from the oversupply fundamentals, with geopolitical factors, particularly the U.S.-Iran situation, becoming the main influence [2][3]. - Analysts suggest that the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market is currently around $1, which could rise to $4-$5 if tensions escalate, while a de-escalation could lead to a rapid price drop [2]. Historical Trends Post-Spring Festival - Historical data from 2013 to 2025 indicates that oil prices tend to have a higher potential for increase in the month following the Spring Festival, with an average increase of approximately 10.96% during the years when prices rose [2][3]. - Despite more years of price declines, the magnitude of increases in rising years significantly outweighs the declines, suggesting a favorable risk-reward ratio for price increases post-holiday [2]. Factors Affecting Oil Prices - Key supportive factors for oil prices include geopolitical uncertainties and U.S. sanctions on oil-producing countries, while global economic weakness and ongoing oversupply remain as negative factors [3]. - Historical events have shown that significant geopolitical events have a greater impact on oil prices than conventional supply-demand dynamics [3]. Commodity Cycle and Oil Price Outlook - The current global commodity cycle, characterized by rising prices in precious and industrial metals, is expected to provide upward momentum for oil prices [4][5]. - The analysis indicates that the transmission of price increases from precious metals to industrial metals and then to oil is effective, driven by liquidity improvements and economic recovery [4][5]. - Despite the unique characteristics of the current cycle, two main supportive factors for oil prices are identified: bullish market expectations and geopolitical risk premiums [5]. Short-term and Long-term Predictions - In the short term, geopolitical factors are expected to strongly influence oil prices, with potential fluctuations based on developments in U.S.-Iran relations [5]. - In the long term, historical trends suggest that oil prices may rise to the range of $75 to $80 per barrel by 2026, supported by bullish market sentiment and geopolitical risk premiums [5].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a decline in gold and silver prices, while copper and other metals showed gains, indicating mixed trends in the commodities sector [1] Group 1: Gold and Silver Market - Spot gold fell by 1.49%, closing at $5149.92 per ounce, after a downward trend initiated before 09:00 Beijing time [1] - COMEX gold futures decreased by 1.12%, settling at $5166.90 per ounce [1] - Spot silver dropped by 1.12%, priced at $87.2078 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 0.57%, reaching $87.695 per ounce [1] Group 2: Other Metals - COMEX copper futures rose by 2.05%, closing at $5.9610 per pound [1] - Spot platinum increased by 1.00%, and spot palladium saw a rise of 2.32% [1] - The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index gained 1.37%, ending at 449.39 points, while the NYSE ARCA Gold Miners Index rose by 0.99%, closing at 3164.77 points [1] Group 3: Market Indices - The raw materials index increased by 1.56%, and the metals and mining index rose by 0.79% [1]