铜价或以高位震荡趋势为主。沪铜套利机会有限。期权合约 建议观望为主。 研究报告 铜周报 12 月美联储降息或遇阻，沪铜或震荡运行 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | --- | --- | | 号 证监许可【2012】1087 | | | 有色板块研究员：刘江 | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 | | | 电话：0931-8582647 | | | 邮箱：451591573@qq.com | | | 报告日期：2025 年 月 11 24 | 日星期一 | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 24 日星期一 美联储 19 日公布的 10 月货币政策会议纪要显示，由于经济 温和扩张、劳动力市场逐步降温但未现急剧恶化，美联储官员对 12 月是否进一步降息出现明显分歧。围绕关税对通胀的影响，美 联储官员意见存在分歧。一些与会官员认为，不考虑关税带来的 影响，目前通胀水平已接近美联储的目标值。然而更多官员认为， 总体通胀水平已持续高于目 ...

每经AI快讯，美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)：截至10月7日当周，纽约商品交易所(COMEX)铜期货投 机客将净多头头寸增加8536份合约，至58648份合约。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周五（11月21日）纽约尾盘，COMEX白银期货本周累跌1.91%，报49.720美元/盎司。 COMEX铜期货本周累跌1.30%，报4.9970美元/磅。 ...

| | | 盘贵声明：宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构，已具备期货交易咨询业务资格。本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均求源于 公开资料，本公司对这些信息的推确性和完整性不作任何保证。这不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生在何预必。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公 正. 但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议、救资者依据本报告提供的信息进行对授数资所造成的一切后果,本公司拥有负责 。本报告版权仅仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可，在何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、度制和发布、如引用、刊发，凝准明出处为宏源期货。且不 得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源:SHM和WIND。风险提示:期市有风险,按资深谨慎! 王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 沪铜日评20251119: 美联储降息预期略有升温支撑铜价+E4:K34 | | 变量名称 2025-11-10 较昨日变动 | 2025-11-18 | 2025-11-17 | | | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪 ...

王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 盘贵声明：宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构，已具备期货交易咨询业务资格。本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均求源于 公开资料，本公司对这些信息的推确性和完整性不作任何保证。这不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生在何预必。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公 正. 但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议、救资者依据本报告提供的信息进行对授数资所造成的一切后果,本公司拥有负责 。本报告版权仅仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可，在何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、度制和发布、如引用、刊发，凝准明出处为宏源期货。且不 得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源:SHM和WIND。风险提示:期市有风险,按资深谨慎! | | | 沪铜日评20251118: 多位美联储官员对12月降息转鹰或施压铜价 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 变量名称 2025-11-17 2025-11-14 2025-11-07 | | | | 较昨日变动 | 近期 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 关注经济数据发布 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 18 日 【行情分析】 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 【期现行情】 期货方面：沪铜高开低走，日内震荡偏弱。 现货方面：今日华东现货升贴水 55 元/吨，华南现货升贴水 5 元/吨。2025 年 11 月 17 日，LME 官方价 10802.5 美元/吨，现货升贴水-3.5 美元/吨。 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 -500 -300 -100 100 300 500 700 900 华东阴极铜升贴水（元/吨） 2022 2023 2024 2025 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 华南阴极铜升贴水（元/吨） 2022 2023 2024 2025 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 LME铜期货收盘价 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 LME铜现货升贴水 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 【供给端】 截至 11 月 17 日最新数据显示，现货粗炼费（TC）-41.82 美元 ...

来源：环球市场播报 金价下跌，市场对美联储在一系列经济数据发布前便降息的预期减弱。 美联储的一派决策者加大了对通胀进展可能放缓甚至停滞的警告力度，令人不禁怀疑12月是否会再次降 息。与此同时，美联储理事Waller重申，他认为央行应该在12月会议上再次降息，理由是劳动力市场疲 软以及货币政策在伤害中低收入消费者。 COMEX黄金期货跌1.23%，报4043.80美元/盎司。 通常而言，降息使得黄金这种不生息资产的吸引力上升。 纽约尾盘，现货黄金跌1.00%，报4043.38美元/盎司，北京时间07：23微涨至4106.74美元刷新日高，随 后持续微幅走弱，03：09跌穿4060美元，之后快速走低，04：00刷新日低至4007.09美元。 COMEX铜期货跌1.46%，报4.9890美元/磅，全天持续走低。 现货铂金跌0.71%，报1534.43美元/盎司；现货钯金跌0.37%，报1396.13美元/盎司。 纽约尾盘，现货白银跌0.78%，报50.1913美元/盎司。 COMEX白银期货跌1.32%，报50.015美元/盎司。 ...

每经AI快讯，周五（11月14日）纽约尾盘，COMEX黄金期货跌2.70%，报4081.00美元/盎司，本周累涨 1.75%，11月13日曾达到4250美元。COMEX白银期货累涨4.73%，报50.420美元/盎司。COMEX铜期货 累涨1.91%，报5.0515美元/磅。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Multiple Fed officials turning hawkish on a December rate cut may put pressure on copper prices. The supply side has production disruptions in multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rates of various copper products have increased, but high copper prices suppress downstream purchasing willingness. In the inventory end, the inventories of electrolytic copper in China, LME, and COMEX have all increased compared to last week. Therefore, the price of Shanghai copper may be adjusted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On November 13, 2025, the closing price was 87,550, the trading volume was 102,298 lots, the open interest was 201,007 lots, and the inventory was 43,957 tons. The basis was - 340, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper - semi - average price was 87,210 [3]. - **LME 3 - month Copper Futures**: On November 13, 2025, the closing price (electronic trading) was 10,859, the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 5.96, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 123.33 [3]. - **COMEX Copper**: On November 13, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 5.0575, and the total inventory was 379,439 [3]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Multiple copper mines at home and abroad have production disruptions, making the China copper concentrate import index negative and the domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation tight. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month [3]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared to last week, but high copper prices suppress downstream purchasing willingness [3]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China, the inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange, and the inventory of COMEX copper have all increased compared to last week [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - For long positions established earlier, take profits when the price rises. Pay attention to the support level around 82,000 - 84,000 and the resistance level around 88,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, the support level is around 10,300 - 10,500, and the resistance level is around 11,000 - 11,500. For US copper, the support level is around 4.5 - 4.8, and the resistance level is around 5.2 - 5.5 [3].

Report Title - The report is titled "Shanghai Copper Daily Report 20251113: Tight Supply and Demand of Copper Mines May Support Copper Prices" [1] Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is cautiously bullish [2] Core View - On the supply side, there are disturbances in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index, indicating a tight supply - demand outlook for domestic copper concentrates. Although the supply of scrap copper has increased and domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared to last week. In terms of inventory, China's electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased, while LME and COMEX copper inventories have increased. With the US federal government about to end its shutdown and production disturbances in overseas copper mines, the price of Shanghai copper may show a certain upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions in Shanghai copper cautiously, paying attention to support and resistance levels [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shanghai Copper Futures - **Price**: The closing price of the active Shanghai copper futures contract on November 12, 2025, was 86,840, up 210 from the previous day [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume was 76,287 lots on November 12, 2025, an increase of 1,648 lots from the previous day [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interest was 200,769 lots on November 12, 2025, a decrease of 1,602 lots from the previous day [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 44,088 tons on November 12, 2025, an increase of 1,124 tons from the previous day [2] - **Basis and Premium**: The Shanghai copper basis and various premiums showed different degrees of change. For example, the SMM 1 electrolytic copper - average price difference was - 45 on November 12, 2025, down 180 from the previous day [2] London Copper - **Price**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on November 12, 2025, was 10,897, up 57 from the previous day [2] - **Inventory**: The total registered and cancelled warehouse receipt inventory on November 11, 2025, was 136,250 tons [2] - **Contract Spread**: The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 0 on November 12, 2025, up 21.28 from the previous day [2] COMEX Copper - **Inventory**: The total COMEX copper inventory on November 12, 2025, was 378,303 tons, an increase of 5,999 tons from the previous relevant data [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the support and resistance levels. For Shanghai copper, focus on the 82,000 - 84,000 support and 88,000 - 90,000 resistance; for London copper, focus on the 10,300 - 10,500 support and 11,000 - 11,200 resistance; for US copper, focus on the 4.5 - 4.8 support and 5.2 - 5.5 resistance [2]