| | | 盘贵声明：宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构，已具备期货交易咨询业务资格。本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均求源于 公开资料，本公司对这些信息的推确性和完整性不作任何保证。这不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生在何预必。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公 正. 但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议、救资者依据本报告提供的信息进行对授数资所造成的一切后果,本公司拥有负责 。本报告版权仅仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可，在何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、度制和发布、如引用、刊发，凝准明出处为宏源期货。且不 得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源:SHM和WIND。风险提示:期市有风险,按资深谨慎! 王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 沪铜日评20251119: 美联储降息预期略有升温支撑铜价+E4:K34 | | 变量名称 2025-11-10 较昨日变动 | 2025-11-18 | 2025-11-17 | | | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪 ...

王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 盘贵声明：宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构，已具备期货交易咨询业务资格。本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均求源于 公开资料，本公司对这些信息的推确性和完整性不作任何保证。这不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生在何预必。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公 正. 但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议、救资者依据本报告提供的信息进行对授数资所造成的一切后果,本公司拥有负责 。本报告版权仅仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可，在何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、度制和发布、如引用、刊发，凝准明出处为宏源期货。且不 得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源:SHM和WIND。风险提示:期市有风险,按资深谨慎! | | | 沪铜日评20251118: 多位美联储官员对12月降息转鹰或施压铜价 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 变量名称 2025-11-17 2025-11-14 2025-11-07 | | | | 较昨日变动 | 近期 ...

沪铜产业日报 2025/11/17 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 项目类别 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 86,450.00 | -450.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 10,829.50 | -22.50↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 0.00 | 0 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Multiple Fed officials turning hawkish on a December rate cut may put pressure on copper prices. The supply side has production disruptions in multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rates of various copper products have increased, but high copper prices suppress downstream purchasing willingness. In the inventory end, the inventories of electrolytic copper in China, LME, and COMEX have all increased compared to last week. Therefore, the price of Shanghai copper may be adjusted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On November 13, 2025, the closing price was 87,550, the trading volume was 102,298 lots, the open interest was 201,007 lots, and the inventory was 43,957 tons. The basis was - 340, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper - semi - average price was 87,210 [3]. - **LME 3 - month Copper Futures**: On November 13, 2025, the closing price (electronic trading) was 10,859, the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 5.96, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 123.33 [3]. - **COMEX Copper**: On November 13, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 5.0575, and the total inventory was 379,439 [3]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Multiple copper mines at home and abroad have production disruptions, making the China copper concentrate import index negative and the domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation tight. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month [3]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared to last week, but high copper prices suppress downstream purchasing willingness [3]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China, the inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange, and the inventory of COMEX copper have all increased compared to last week [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - For long positions established earlier, take profits when the price rises. Pay attention to the support level around 82,000 - 84,000 and the resistance level around 88,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, the support level is around 10,300 - 10,500, and the resistance level is around 11,000 - 11,500. For US copper, the support level is around 4.5 - 4.8, and the resistance level is around 5.2 - 5.5 [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - Supply - Domestic and overseas copper mines face production disruptions, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight supply - demand outlook for domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper has increased, domestic processing fees for crude copper or anode plates have risen, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month. [2] - Demand - The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared to last week. [2] - Inventory - China's electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased compared to last week, while LME and COMEX copper inventories have increased. [2] - Market Outlook - With the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in December and the end of the US federal government shutdown, the production disruptions in overseas copper mines may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price and Trading Volume Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On November 11, 2025, the closing price was 86,630, up 150 from the previous day. The trading volume was 74,639 hands, a decrease of 23,450. The open interest was 202,371 hands, a decrease of 1,756. The inventory was 42,964 tons, a decrease of 825. The Shanghai copper basis was 135, up 80. [2] - **London Copper**: On November 11, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,840, down 34.5. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 21.28, down 6.43, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 0, down 80.63. [2] - **COMEX Copper**: On November 11, 2025, the closing price of the copper futures active contract was 5.0635, up 0.11. The total inventory was 376,631, an increase of 7,262. [2] 3.2. Trading Strategy - Short - term traders are advised to go long on the main contract at low prices with a light position. Pay attention to the support level around 82,000 - 84,000 and the resistance level around 87,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, pay attention to the support level around 10,300 - 10,500 and the resistance level around 10,800 - 11,200. For US copper, pay attention to the support level around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance level around 5.2 - 5.5. [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Multiple copper mines have production disruptions, which may make the Shanghai copper price cautiously bullish. The supply - side has production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic blister copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared to last week. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has decreased compared to last week, while the inventory of LME electrolytic copper and COMEX copper has increased [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Shanghai Copper Futures - On November 10, 2025, the closing price of the active Shanghai copper futures contract was 86,480, with a volume of 98,089 lots, a position of 204,127 lots, and an inventory of 43,789 tons. The Shanghai copper basis was 55, and the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 86,535. Compared with November 7, the closing price increased by 540, the volume increased by 6,813 lots, the position decreased by 3,009 lots, and the inventory increased by 395 tons [3] 2. London Copper - On November 10, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,874.5. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 0, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 0. Compared with November 7, the closing price increased by 179.5, the 0 - 3 - month contract spread increased by 18.22, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread decreased by 77.98 [3] 3. COMEX Copper - On November 10, 2025, the closing price of the active COMEX copper futures contract was 5.0995, and the total inventory was 372,304. Compared with November 6, the closing price increased by 0.12, and the inventory increased by 5,885 [3] 4. Trading Strategy - Short - term, lightly - position and try to go long on the main contract at low prices. Pay attention to the support level around 82,000 - 84,000 and the resistance level around 87,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, pay attention to the support level around 10,300 - 10,500 and the resistance level around 10,800 - 11,200. For US copper, pay attention to the support level around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance level around 5.2 - 5.5 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of global assets in October 2025, highlighting the significant movements in various markets and the implications for investors [2]. Group 1: Global Asset Performance - In October 2025, global asset performance ranked as follows: global stocks (2.29%) > US dollar (2.08%) > commodities (1.28%) > RMB (0.02%) > 0% > global bonds (-0.25%) [2]. - The S&P 500 index has been above its 50-day moving average for 128 consecutive trading days, the longest streak since 2011, raising concerns about its sustainability [4][13]. - Following the midterm elections, Argentine assets surged over 20% as President Milei's party won decisively, alleviating fears of economic crisis [4][18]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Valuation - A record 54% of global fund managers believe AI tech stocks are in a bubble, up from 38% in September, indicating growing caution in the tech sector [4][24]. - The forward P/E ratio premium of the "Big Seven" US tech stocks has risen to 70.2% compared to the S&P 500, reflecting optimism about their growth potential [4][30]. - The dollar index has turned bullish, with a 1.95% increase in October, driven by hawkish Fed signals and inflation concerns [4][33]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Trends - The yield curve for Japanese government bonds has flattened as expectations for interest rate hikes increase, with the spread between 5-year and 30-year bonds narrowing to 183 basis points [4][36]. - The Federal Reserve announced an early end to its balance sheet reduction, having shrunk its balance sheet by over $2.4 trillion since June 2022, indicating tightening liquidity in the banking system [4][39]. - Gold's historical volatility has surged, with a gap of over 11 points compared to the S&P 500, the highest since 2020, suggesting a strategic bullish outlook on gold [4][42]. Group 4: Commodity Market Developments - LME copper prices reached a historical high of over $11,000 per ton amid improving US-China trade relations and increased demand from the AI and renewable energy sectors [4][45].

Report Title - The daily report of Shanghai copper on November 6, 2025: The Fed's hawkish shift in interest - rate cut expectations may suppress copper prices [2] Core View - Multiple copper mines at home and abroad have production disturbances, leading to a continuously negative import index of copper concentrates in China, indicating a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month. However, due to the Fed's hawkish shift in interest - rate cut expectations and the strengthening of the US dollar index, the price of Shanghai copper may be adjusted [3]. Key Data Summary Shanghai Copper Futures - Closing price of the active contract: 85,670 on November 5, 2025, down 70 from the previous day [3]. - Trading volume: 142,332 lots on November 5, 2025, a 24.41% decrease from the previous day [3]. - Open interest: 217,024 lots on November 5, 2025, down 10,525 from the previous day [3]. - Inventory: 42,561 tons on November 5, 2025, up 1,414 tons from the previous day [3]. London Copper - Closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading): 10,733 on November 5, 2025, up 84 from the previous day [3]. - LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract spread: - 38.37 on November 5, 2025, down 7.92 from the previous day [3]. - LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contract spread: 63.68 on November 5, 2025, down 1.49 from the previous day [3]. COMEX Copper - Closing price of the active copper futures contract: 4.989 on November 5, 2025, down 0.06 from the previous day [3]. - Total inventory: 363,368 on November 5, 2025, up 4,882 from the previous day [3]. Supply - Demand and Inventory Situation Supply - Supply side: Multiple copper mines at home and abroad have production disturbances, resulting in a continuously negative import index of copper concentrates in China, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month [3]. Demand - Demand side: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, and brass rods have decreased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rates of recycled copper rods, copper strips, and copper tubes have increased compared with last week [3]. Inventory - Inventory side: The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China has increased compared with last week. The inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange has decreased compared with last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased compared with last week [3]. Trading Strategy - Hold previous short positions cautiously. Pay attention to the support levels around 81,000 - 83,000 and the resistance levels around 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, the support levels are around 10,200 - 10,500 and the resistance levels are around 11,500 - 12,000. For US copper, the support levels are around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance levels are around 5.5 - 6.0 [3].

Report Title - The report is titled "Shanghai Copper Daily Review 20251104: Stronger US Dollar Index Suppresses Copper Prices" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The report indicates that although China and the US have reached a one - year economic and trade agreement and there are production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines, the hawkish shift in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, a stronger US dollar index, and tighter liquidity may lead to an adjustment in Shanghai copper prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Shanghai Copper Futures Data - On November 3, 2025, the closing price of the active Shanghai copper futures contract was 87,300, with a volume of 150,597 lots, an open interest of 248,762 lots, and an inventory of 40,066 tons. The Shanghai copper basis was - 460, and the SMW 1 electrolytic copper - semi average price was 86,840 [2] 2. London Copper Data - On October 31, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,891.5, and the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 133,600. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 14.44, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 97.5 [2] 3. COMEX Copper Data - On November 3, 2025, the closing price of the active COMEX copper futures contract was 5.051, and the total inventory was 358,486 [2] 4. Supply - Demand Logic - Supply side: There are production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, making China's copper concentrate import index continuously negative, leading to a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. The supply of scrap copper has increased, the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month [2] - Demand side: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, and copper bars have decreased compared to last week, while the capacity utilization rates of recycled copper rods, copper strips, and copper tubes have increased. The decline in copper prices has stimulated the downstream purchasing sentiment [2] - Inventory side: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has increased compared to last week, the inventory of LME electrolytic copper has decreased, and the COMEX copper inventory has increased [2] 5. Trading Strategy - Short - term investors can lightly short the main contract on rallies. Pay attention to the support level around 83,000 - 86,000 and the resistance level around 92,000 - 96,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 10,200 - 10,500 and the resistance level around 11,500 - 12,000 for London copper, and the support level around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that due to supply - side disturbances in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, the import index of copper concentrates in China has been negative, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation. The processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates have initially increased, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in October has increased month - on - month. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rates of various copper products have risen compared to last week. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper and the LME electrolytic copper inventory have decreased compared to last week, while the COMEX copper inventory has increased. With the expectation of future interest rate cuts and the end of balance - sheet reduction by the Fed, as well as the expectation of a缓和 in Sino - US trade negotiations, the price of copper is expected to be cautiously bullish. The trading strategy suggests mainly laying out long positions when the price drops, paying attention to support and resistance levels [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On October 23, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 86070, with a trading volume of 114909 hands, an open interest of 248626 hands, and an inventory of 36048 tons. Compared with the previous day, the closing price increased by 650, the trading volume increased by 2736 hands, the open interest increased by 15265 hands, and the inventory decreased by 505 tons [2]. - **London Copper**: On October 23, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10817, with a 0 - 3 - month contract spread of - 11.55 and a 3 - 15 - month contract spread of 111.99. Compared with the previous day, the closing price increased by 158.5, the 0 - 3 - month contract spread decreased by 5.19, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread increased by 6.54 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On October 23, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 5.0855, and the total inventory was 347498. Compared with the previous day, the closing price increased by 0.13, and the inventory increased by 1574 [2]. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: Multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have production disturbances, resulting in a negative import index of copper concentrates in China. The supply of scrap copper is expected to be tight, and the processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates have initially increased. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in October has increased month - on - month [2]. - **Demand Side**: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared to last week [2]. Inventory Analysis - China's social inventory of electrolytic copper has decreased compared to last week, the LME electrolytic copper inventory has decreased compared to last week, and the COMEX copper inventory has increased compared to last week [2]. Trading Strategy - Mainly lay out long positions when the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 80000 - 83000 and the resistance level around 86000 - 89000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9500 - 10200 and the resistance level around 11000 - 12000 for LME copper, the support level around 4.0 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 for COMEX copper [2].