沪铜日评20250825: 国内铜冶炼厂9月检修产能或环增,国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少 | 变量名称 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | 2025-08-22 | 2025-08-21 | 2025-08-14 | 收盘价 | 78690 | 150.00 | 78540 | 78950 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 成交量(手) | 37910 | 43058 | 51734 | -5.148.00 | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 持仓量(手) | -7,132.00 | 120902 | 128034 | 152341 | | 库存(吨) | 241 48 | 25157 | 24434 | -1.009.00 | SMM 1#电解铜平均价 | 78830 | 78800 | 79435 | 30. 00 | | | 沪铜基差 | 260 | 140 | 485 | -120.00 | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 | 厂州电解铜现货升贴水 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 0. 00 | | (现货与期货 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The domestic copper smelter's maintenance capacity in August may decrease month-on-month, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased month-on-month. The US port inflation rebound reduces the Fed's expected number of interest rate cuts, but the decrease in scrap copper anode plates and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory may cause the Shanghai copper price to fluctuate. It is recommended that investors wait and see. Pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Data - On August 15, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 79,060 yuan, up 110 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 50,116 lots, down 1,618 lots; the open interest was 152,557 lots, up 216 lots; the inventory was 24,560 tons, up 126 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,180 yuan, down 255 yuan [2] - The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic disk) on August 15, 2025, was 9,760 US dollars, down 17 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, down 155,800 tons [2] - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on August 15, 2025, was 4.489 US dollars, down 0.01 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory weight was 267,195 tons, up 400 tons [2] Zambia Copper Production - Zambia, the second - largest copper producer in Africa, had a copper production of about 439,644 tons in the first six months of 2025. Assuming no revision in the first - quarter production of about 224,000 tons, the second - quarter production was about 215,644 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of about 4%. Four producers had problems in the second quarter. To reach the 1 - million - ton target set by the government this year, the production in the second half of the year needs to increase by about 27% [2] Industry News - Jiangxi Heli Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. plans to invest 197.66065 million yuan to relocate and upgrade its existing project to build an annual 200,000 - ton recycled electrolytic copper project in Jiangxi Qianshan County Industrial Park [3] - Jiangxi Linghao New Material Technology Co., Ltd. plans to build an annual 500,000 - ton steelmaking furnace charge and 200,000 - ton copper - aluminum recycling project in De'an County, with a total investment of 200 million yuan and environmental protection investment of 1.31 million yuan [3] - On August 14, 2025, the environmental impact assessment of Jiangxi Hefan Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd.'s annual 200,000 - ton recycled electrolytic copper project was accepted for public notice, with a public notice period from August 14 to August 27, 2025 [5] Copper Product Industry Analysis - The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and enameled wires in East China has increased compared with last week, affecting the capacity utilization rate of copper products. The capacity utilization rate of different copper products may change in August. For example, the capacity utilization rate of electrolytic copper rods, copper foils, and brass rods may increase, while that of recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, and copper tubes may decrease [4]

沪铜日评20250808: 国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环碱,国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少 | 2 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 变量名称 | 2025-08-07 | 2025-08-06 | 2025-07-30 | 较昨日变动 | 近期定势 | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 78460 | 78280 | 78930 | 180.00 | | | | 成交量(手) | 42710 | 26388 | 55888 | -13.679.00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 157601 | 158574 | 171689 | -973.00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 20145 | 20346 | 19973 | -201.00 | | | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 | SMM 1#电解铜平均价 | 78500 | 78350 | 79285 | 150.00 | | | | 沪铜县差 | 40 | 70 | 355 | -30.00 - | | | (现货与期货) | 广州电解铜现货升贴水 | -45 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - US employment market weakness boosts Fed's interest rate cut expectations, but the traditional domestic consumption off - season suppresses downstream demand, and the total inventory of domestic and foreign electrolytic copper fluctuates upward, suggesting that Shanghai copper prices may still have room to fall. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to support and resistance levels [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,400 yuan, up 360 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 80,943 lots, down 28,068 lots; open interest was 167,671 lots, down 8,522 lots; inventory was 20,349 tons, up 727 tons; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,330 yuan, down 235 yuan [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The Shanghai copper basis was -70 yuan, down 595 yuan; Guangzhou electrolytic copper spot premium was -15 yuan, up 5 yuan; North China electrolytic copper spot premium was -120 yuan, down 10 yuan; East China electrolytic copper spot premium was 35 yuan, unchanged; the spread between near - month and continuous - first Shanghai copper was -10 yuan, down 70 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,633 US dollars, up 26 US dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, down 141,750 tons; the spread of LME copper futures 0 - 3 months contract was -49.25 US dollars, up 1.51 US dollars; the spread of LME copper futures 3 - 15 months contract was -142.93 US dollars, down 15.18 US dollars; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.1387, up 0.02 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.443 US dollars, down 0.19 US dollars; the total inventory was 259,681 tons, up 3,733 tons [2]. Industry News - **Policy Impact**: Due to the US government's decision on July 30, 2025, to exempt imported electrolytic copper from tariffs, the spread between COMEX copper and LME copper collapsed, leading a large amount of electrolytic copper to be transferred to the LME delivery warehouse in New Orleans [2]. - **Company Expansion**: Codelco planned to invest $5.7 billion in 2022 to expand El Teniente. As of March 31, 2025, the Andes Norte project was 73% complete, the Andesita project was 70% complete and started operation in February 2025, and the Diamante project was 43% complete. The expansion is expected to add 2 - 3 tons of copper production in 2025 and reach 15 tons after full - production, with the annual output expected to reach 50 tons after all projects are put into operation [2]. - **Accident**: A Chilean earthquake caused a casualty accident at Codelco's El Teniente copper mine, resulting in 6 deaths and halting nearby activities for investigation [2]. Investment Strategy - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged in January. Import tariffs pushed up commodity prices, causing an increase in the annual rates of US consumer - end inflation CPI and core CPI in June. Due to the possible significant downward revision or far - below - expected new non - farm payrolls in June - July, the US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, increasing the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts in September, October, and December [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In August, the domestic production (import) of copper concentrates increased month - on - month, the import index of Chinese copper concentrates was negative and higher than the previous week, and the port copper concentrate throughput (in - port, inventory) in the world (China) decreased (increased, decreased) compared with the previous week. The restriction on high - quality scrap steel exports in Europe and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff negotiations affected scrap copper imports, and the import window for scrap copper was closed. Some copper smelters suspended production, and domestic smelters' rough - smelting maintenance capacity in August may decrease month - on - month, which may lead to an increase in domestic rough copper production (import) in August [2]. - **Trading Advice**: Hold previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and COMEX copper [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The passage of the stablecoin - related bill in the US and the increased probability of the Fed's September rate - cut, along with disruptions in copper mine production or transportation overseas and a decline in China's electrolytic copper social inventory, could lead to price adjustments in Shanghai copper. It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on specific support and pressure levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 25, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,250 yuan, down 640 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 88,147 lots, an increase of 14,228 lots; the open interest was 180,830 lots, down 666 lots; the inventory was 16,133 tons, down 50 tons; the average price of SMW 1 electrolytic copper was 79,450 yuan, down 345 yuan [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spreads**: The Shanghai copper basis was 200 yuan, up 295 yuan from the previous day. Different regional spot premiums and discounts and spreads between different - month contracts showed various changes [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on July 25, 2025, was 9,796, down 58.5 from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a significant decrease from 128,475 the previous day. There were also changes in different contract spreads and the Shanghai - London copper price ratio [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on July 25, 2025, was 5.804, down 0.04 from the previous day. The total inventory weight was 248,635, an increase of 3,127 [2]. 3.2 Industry News - **Mine Incidents**: Red Chris mine in Canada suspended operations due to a tunnel collapse in the non - production project's underground working area, with three workers trapped. Anglo Asian Mining's Denirli operation in Azerbaijan increased copper concentrate production, while Russian Mornickel lowered its 2025 copper production forecast. Other mines also had various incidents and production adjustments [2][3]. - **Mine Closures and Expansions**: Glencore will close its Mount Isa copper mine in Australia next week, with about 500 people affected. Some mines, such as the Miraado copper mine in Ecuador and the Julong copper mine in China, have expansion plans [2][3]. 3.3 Macroeconomic and Policy News - The US House of Representatives passed a stablecoin - related bill and allowed pension funds to invest in assets like gold and digital currencies. US consumer - end inflation (CPI) increased in June due to import tariffs. The initial jobless claims were 217,000, lower than expected and the previous value. The probability of a Fed rate - cut in September increased but decreased in December [2][3]. 3.4 Investment Strategy Investors are advised to wait and see, focusing on support and pressure levels: for Shanghai copper, 76,000 - 78,000 and 80,000 - 81,000; for London copper, 9,300 - 9,500 and 10,000 - 10,200; for US copper, 5.0 - 5.2 and 6.0 - 7.0 [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The passage suggests that the approval of the US stablecoin - related bill, the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, fluctuations in overseas copper mine production or transportation, and the decline in the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory may lead to a cautiously bullish trend in the Shanghai copper price. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 22, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,740, up 40 from the previous day; the trading volume was 73,257 hands, down 6,755; the open interest was 166,726 hands, up 29,109; the inventory was 25,507 tons, down 2,670 [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on July 22 was 9,888, up 31 from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 124,850 tons, a decrease of 124,850 compared to the previous day [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on July 22 was 5.768, up 0.19 from July 18. The total inventory was 243,781 tons, up 944 [2]. Information - **Production and Export**: In June, the overall terminal demand was good. Although the export volume of many refined copper rod enterprises decreased, the overall demand in the Southeast Asian market remained stable, and the domestic deep - processing transfer demand increased. In July, with the decline in copper prices, the foreign trade market improved, and SMM expected the export volume of refined copper rod wires to recover in July. The production of Anglo Asian Mining's Denirli copper mine is expected to increase by the end of this year, with an expected output of 4,000 tons in 2025 and 15,000 tons after 2026 [2]. - **Macro - economy**: The US Senate passed a stablecoin - related bill, allowing pension funds and other assets to invest in gold, digital currencies, etc. The import tariff increased the commodity price, leading to a slight increase in the inflation rate of US consumer goods in June. The RPP annual rate of US production adjustment in June was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value, increasing the expectation of Powell's early departure and the Fed's interest - rate cut, which raised the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September or December [3]. Investment Strategy - **Upstream**: The China copper concentrate import index is negative but has increased compared to last week. The port copper concentrate throughput (inbound, outbound, and inventory) in the world (China) has decreased compared to last week. Although there are some factors restricting the supply of scrap copper, the opening of the refined copper import window and the transit supply from countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Thailand may lead to an increase in the domestic scrap copper production (import) in July. Some smelters have production problems, while some new projects are under construction or expected to be put into operation [5]. - **Downstream**: The daily processing fee for refined copper rods for power and enameled wires in East China has increased compared to last week. Affected by the traditional off - season of consumption and the Sino - US tariff issue, the capacity utilization rate and production volume of domestic steel enterprises in July may decline, but the capacity utilization rate of copper foil may increase [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand. The industrial inventory, although accumulating, still operates in a low - level range, and the consumption expectation is positive. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,090 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,614.50 dollars/ton, down 4.50 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 169,930 hands, down 2,274 hands. The LME copper inventory is 109,625 tons, up 900 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 81,462 tons, down 3,127 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 77,995 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 78,185 yuan/ton, down 335 yuan. The CU main contract basis is - 95 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The imported quantity of copper ore and concentrates is 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, unchanged. The imported quantity of unwrought copper and copper products is 464,000 tons, up 34,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,090 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,150 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 209.60 million tons, up 1.50 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 203.986 billion yuan, up 63.169 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 4,665.8 billion yuan, up 1,042.416 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,510 million pieces, up 275 million pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.34%, up 0.09%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.33%, unchanged. The current - month at - the - money IV implied volatility is 11.32%, down 0.0061%. The at - the - money option purchase - to - put ratio is 1.68, up 0.018 [2] Industry News - In the first half of the year, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 21.79 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the July 29 - 30 meeting. The balance of broad money (M2) at the end of June was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. In the first half of the year, the number of newly registered motor vehicles in China was 16.88 million, among which the number of newly registered new - energy vehicles was 5.622 million, a year - on - year increase of 27.86% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand. Industrial inventories are accumulating but still at a low level, and consumption expectations are positive. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 78,400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,639.50 dollars/ton, down 21 dollars. The spread between different months of the main contract was 110 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai copper decreased by 6,478 lots to 172,204 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper increased by 6,397 lots to - 1,607 lots [2]. - LME copper inventory increased by 625 tons to 108,725 tons, and the cancelled warrants increased by 25 tons to 40,975 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 2,856 tons to 34,379 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 78,455 yuan/ton, down 265 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market 1 copper spot was 78,520 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan. The CIF price of Shanghai electrolytic copper (bill of lading) was 62 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper increased by 2.5 dollars to 45.5 dollars/ton [2]. - The basis of the CU main contract was 55 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) was - 21.57 dollars/ton, down 20.62 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters increased by 0.46 dollars to - 43.79 dollars/thousand tons. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 68,800 yuan/metal ton, down 210 yuan; the price in Yunnan was 69,500 yuan/metal ton, down 210 yuan [2]. - The processing fee for blister copper in the south was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee in the north was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The production of refined copper was 1.254 billion tons, unchanged. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products increased by 34,000 tons to 464,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper increased by 0.43 million tons to 41.82 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai increased by 100 yuan to 55,290 yuan/ton; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 67,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The production of copper products increased by 1.5 million tons to 209.6 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure increased by 63.169 billion yuan to 203.986 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development increased by 85.0427 billion yuan to 362.3384 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly production of integrated circuits increased by 68,000 pieces to 4,235,000,000 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper decreased by 0.29% to 10.25%, and the 40 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.04% to 9.33%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month increased by 0.0011% to 11.93%, and the put - call ratio of the at - the - money option decreased by 0.0213 to 1.66 [2]. Industry News - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that the latest tariff measures announced by US President Trump have confused the inflation outlook, making it more difficult for him to support Trump's proposed interest rate cuts [2]. - Data from the National Information Center showed that in the second quarter, high - frequency data in multiple fields such as consumption, investment, industrial production, and business operations in China continued to improve. The offline consumption heat index increased by 25.5% year - on - year, the online retail sales of major household appliances increased by 28.0%, the national project winning bid amount increased by 23.4% month - on - month, and the business vitality indexes of start - up enterprises and technology - innovative enterprises increased by 38.3% and 28.2% year - on - year respectively [2]. - The central bank stated that the transmission of monetary policy takes time, and the effects of the implemented monetary policy will further emerge. In the next stage, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, closely monitor and evaluate the transmission and actual effects of the previously implemented policies, and adjust the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation according to the domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial market operations [2]. - Yuyuantan Tian published an article pointing out that in 2025, the global trade pattern is at a critical turning point. The unpredictability of US tariff policies has created uncertainty but also promoted the global trade system to develop towards true diversification. Although the US is still an important participant in global trade, its influence is gradually weakening, and developing countries and emerging economies, especially those in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East, are becoming new growth points in global trade [2]. - Fu Bingfeng, the executive vice - president and secretary - general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that as of now, the proportion of new energy vehicles in China has reached 10%. It is expected that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 16 million this year, and the proportion of new vehicle sales is expected to exceed 50% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The easing of Sino-US mutual tariffs has led to expectations of rush exports, but the traditional consumption off-season is approaching, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has increased compared to last week, which may cause the furnace copper price to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see temporarily, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On May 20, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 77,540 yuan, a decrease of 280 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 66,697 lots, a decrease of 15,718 lots; the open interest was 166,088 lots, a decrease of 5,147 lots; and the inventory was 45,738 tons, a decrease of 16,175 tons [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper was 78,340 yuan, an increase of 230 yuan; the premium of anode copper was 800 yuan, an increase of 510 yuan; the spot premium/discount in Guangzhou was 190 yuan, a decrease of 80 yuan; in North China, it was 50 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan; and in East China, it was 250 yuan, a decrease of 15 yuan [2]. - **Spread (Near - Month and Far - Month)**: The spread between Shanghai copper near - month and Shanghai copper continuous first was 350 yuan, a decrease of 90 yuan; between Shanghai copper continuous first and Shanghai copper continuous second was 290 yuan, a decrease of 70 yuan; and between Shanghai copper continuous second and Shanghai copper continuous first was 190 yuan, a decrease of 40 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,554.5 US dollars, an increase of 31 US dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 170,750 tons; the spread of LME copper futures 0 - 3 months contract was 3.16 US dollars, a decrease of 12.36 US dollars; and the spread of 3 - 15 months contract was 121 US dollars, a decrease of 29.50 US dollars [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.674 US dollars, an increase of 0.08 US dollars; the total inventory was 171,622 tons, an increase of 1,958 tons [2] Industry News - **Mine Expansion and Production**: The fluidized copper ore expansion project of ACC Metals' polymetallic mine will be put into production in Q1 2026, with an initial annual output of 25,000 tons. The second - phase 150,000 - ton production capacity of Mirado Mine under Tongling Nonferrous may be put into production in the second half of 2025. The second - phase 200,000 - ton/day project of Julong Copper Mine may be put into production by the end of 2026 [4]. - **Export Restrictions and Tax**: Indonesia's Freeport McMoRan was allowed to export 1.27 million tons of copper concentrate within 6 months but will be subject to higher export taxes [4]. - **Domestic Production and Import**: Domestic copper concentrate production and import volume in May may increase or decrease month - on - month. The import index of Chinese copper concentrate is negative but has risen compared to last week. The out - port volume and inventory of copper concentrate in Chinese ports have increased or decreased compared to last week [4]. - **Scrap Copper**: The negative spread between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper weakens the economy of scrap copper, but the opening of the solid waste import window may lead to an increase or decrease in domestic scrap copper production and import volume. Scrap copper suppliers are reluctant to sell, resulting in a supply shortage [4]. - **Smelter Situation**: Glencore's Altonorte smelter in Chile has suspended production until May due to problems with the melting furnace. The Kaooor Kakula copper smelter may be completed and put into production in June 2025, with an annual output of 600,000 tons of anode copper [4]. Macroeconomic Situation - The US Senate and House of Representatives reached an agreement on the budget decision in April, including spending 5.5 trillion US dollars in the next ten years, raising the debt ceiling by 5 trillion US dollars, and the government reducing spending by 4 billion US dollars. The US PMI and employment data in May were better than expected, and the CPI annual rate in April was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value, which may lead to an interest rate cut by the Fed in September or December [3] Downstream Market - High copper prices have improved new orders, leading to an increase in the capacity utilization rate of China's copper rod (recycled copper rod) industry compared to last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of copper rod enterprises has decreased (increased), and that of recycled copper rod enterprises has remained flat (decreased) [4]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable industry (raw material and finished product inventory) has decreased (decreased, increased) compared to last week. The order volume and processing rate of copper foil have increased (slightly decreased) compared to last week [4]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rod has increased compared to last week. Due to the easing of Sino - US mutual tariffs and the approaching traditional consumption off - season, the capacity utilization rate, production volume, import volume, and export volume of domestic steel enterprises in June may decline [4] Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see temporarily, paying attention to the support levels of 74,000 - 78,000 yuan for Shanghai copper, 9,000 - 9,300 US dollars for London copper, and 4.3 - 4.5 US dollars for US copper, as well as the resistance levels of 78,500 - 80,000 yuan for Shanghai copper, 9,600 - 9,800 US dollars for London copper, and 4.8 - 5.0 US dollars for US copper [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Sino-US tariff negotiations have achieved initial results, and the inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad tends to decline. However, as the traditional off-season of consumption approaches, copper prices may be strong first and then weak. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the moment, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of copper prices in different markets [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On May 9, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 77,450 yuan, up 120 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 111,450 lots, down 5,268 lots; the open interest was 181,319 lots, up 1,627 lots; the inventory was 19,165 tons, down 375 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,205 yuan, down 230 yuan. The Shanghai copper basis and various spot premiums and discounts, as well as the spreads between near - and far - month contracts, showed different degrees of change [2]. - **London Copper**: On May 9, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures settlement price (electronic trading) was 9,445.5 US dollars, up 14 US dollars. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased, and the spreads of different LME copper futures contracts also changed [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On May 9, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.654 US dollars, up 0.03 US dollars, and the total inventory was 160,250 tons, up 3,627 tons [2]. Company News - **Jinchengxin**: It plans to acquire a 50% stake in Colombia's OM Company for 100 million US dollars and gain control. It will invest 230 million US dollars in the construction of the Alacran copper - gold - silver mine project, with an estimated investment of 420.4 million US dollars, a construction period of 2 years, and an expected mine life of 12 years. The company will contribute about 202.22 million US dollars according to the equity ratio and lead the subsequent development and construction of the mine, with an average annual ore mining volume of about 6.1 million tons, equivalent to 25,000 tons of copper, 1.4 tons of gold, and 16 tons of silver [2]. - **Codelco and Escondida Mine**: In March, Codelco's copper production increased by 14.8% year - on - year to 123,200 tons, and the Escondida mine under BHP Billiton's smelting had a 18.9% year - on - year increase in copper production to 120,600 tons [2]. Important Information - **Macro - economic**: The US Senate and House of Representatives reached an agreement on the budget resolution on April 10, including tax cuts of 5.5 trillion US dollars in the next ten years, an increase in the debt ceiling of 5 trillion US dollars, and a reduction in government spending of 4 billion US dollars. The Trump administration proposed to cut the federal fiscal budget by 163 billion US dollars in 2026. The US ISM manufacturing PMI and employment data in April were not bad, delaying the expected time of the Fed's interest rate cut to July, September, or December [2]. - **Upstream**: Some copper mines in Peru, Poland, Kazakhstan, etc. have production changes such as resumption or suspension. Some copper smelters at home and abroad have production adjustments due to various reasons, such as accidents, overhauls, and new capacity launches. The domestic copper concentrate production (import) volume, electrolytic copper production (import) volume, and waste copper production (import) volume may change in May. The inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded area, social inventory, and LME inventory decreased, while the COMEX inventory increased [2]. - **Downstream**: The new orders and long - order executions of refined copper rod enterprises decreased significantly, resulting in a decline in the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods and an increase in that of recycled copper rods. The capacity utilization rate, production volume, import volume, and export volume of domestic copper product enterprises may decline in May, with different performances in different sub - industries [2]. 4. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to wait and see for the moment, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of copper prices in different markets: 70,000/73,000 - 75,000 yuan for Shanghai copper, 8,700 - 8,900 US dollars for London copper, 4.3 - 4.58 US dollars for COMEX copper on the support side, and 78,500 - 80,000 yuan for Shanghai copper, 9,600 - 9,800 US dollars for London copper, 4.85/5.0 - 5.2 US dollars for COMEX copper on the resistance side [3].