1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Due to the expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cut and balance sheet expansion, production disturbances in multiple overseas copper mines, and the expectations of loose domestic fiscal and monetary policies, the price of Shanghai copper may be cautiously bullish [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Copper Futures - On December 12, 2025, the closing price of the active Shanghai copper futures contract was 92,210, up 360 from the previous day; the trading volume was 138,584 lots, down 7,482; the open interest was 190,380 lots, down 9,993; the inventory was 31,461 tons, up 2,530; the Shanghai copper spread was 455, up 605; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 92,665, up 965 [3]. 3.2 London Copper - On December 11, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 11,833.5, up 274 from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was not available; the spread of the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract was 0, down 11.69; the spread of the LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contract was 0, down 243.5; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 7.7923, down 0.15 [3]. 3.3 COMEX Copper - On December 11, 2025, the closing price of the active COMEX copper futures contract was 5.488, up 0.16 from the previous day; the total inventory weight was 447,298, up 4,251 [3]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply side: There are production disturbances in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in December has decreased month - on - month. - Demand side: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods and recycled copper rods have decreased compared to last week, while those of copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased. High copper prices have led to downstream rigid - demand purchases. - Inventory side: The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China, the inventory of electrolytic copper in the LME, and the inventory of COMEX copper have all increased compared to last week [3]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - The main strategy is to lay out long positions when the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 85,000 - 90,000 and the resistance level around 97,000 - 107,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 10,600 - 11,000 and the resistance level around 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper; and the support level around 5.0 - 5.2 and the resistance level around 5.6 - 6.0 for US copper [3].

盘贵声明：宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构，已具备期货交易咨询业务资格。本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均求源于 公开资料，本公司对这些信息的推确性和完整性不作任何保证。这不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生在何预必。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公 正. 但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议、救资者依据本报告提供的信息进行对授数资所造成的一切后果,本公司拥有负责 。本报告版权仅仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可，在何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、度制和发布、如引用、刊发，凝准明出处为宏源期货。且不 得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源:SHM和WIND。风险提示:期市有风险,按资深谨慎! | 变重名称 | 2025-12-02 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | 2025-12-10 | 2025-12-09 | 收盘价 | 03688 | 760.00 | 91850 | 91090 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 成交量(手) | 143313 | ...

| | | 沪铜日评20251210: 高位价格抑制下游需求施压铜价 王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | | 变量名称 | 2025-12-09 2025-12-08 | | 2025-12-01 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 沪铜期货混联合约 | 91090 | 92970 | 89280 | -1,880.00 | | | 成交堂(手) | | 190409 | 194929 | 189675 | -4,520.00 | | | 持仓量(手) | | 210572 | 230045 | 232702 | -19. 473.00 | | | 库存(吨) | | 29531 | 29956 | 31495 | -425.00 | | | 沪铜基差 SMM 1#电解铜-平均价 | | 1125 | -670 | -5 | 1.795.00 | | | | | 92215 | 92300 | 89275 | -85.001 | | | SMM + 水铜开贴 ...

王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | | 变重名称 | 2025-12-05 | 2025-12-04 | 2025-11-27 绞昨日变动 | | 近期定势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 92780 | 90980 | 86990 | 1,800.00 | | | | 成交量(手) | 188062 | 225331 | 81896 | -37, 269.00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 236494 | 234570 | 210684 | 1.924.00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 30936 | 32139 | 35873 | -1,203.00 | | | | 沪铜基差 | -1195 | 265 | 95 | -1. 460. 00 | | | | SMM 1#电解铜-半均价 | 91585 | 91245 | 87085 | 340.00 | | | | SMM平水铜开贴水一平均价 | 110 | 120 | 55 | -10.00 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Fed's future interest - rate cut expectations are rising, there are production disturbances in multiple overseas copper mines, and the supply - demand outlook for electrolytic copper in non - US regions is tightening, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 86,060, with an increase of 1,770 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 225,331 lots, an increase of 99,349 lots. The open interest was 234,570 lots, an increase of 10,586 lots. The inventory was 32,139 tons, an increase of 3,170 tons [3]. - **London Copper**: On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 11,434, a decrease of 14.5 compared to the previous day. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 50.44, a decrease of 37.94 [3]. - **COMEX Copper**: On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.362, an increase of 0.12 compared to the previous day. The total inventory was 435,831, an increase of 3,893 [3]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: There are production disturbances in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight supply - demand outlook for domestic copper concentrates. Scrap copper supply has increased, domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in December has decreased month - on - month [3]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled tape, copper tube, and brass rod have increased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rod has decreased, and that of recycled copper rod has remained flat. High copper prices have led to downstream rigid - demand purchases [3]. - **Inventory**: China's social inventory of electrolytic copper has decreased compared to last week, while the LME's electrolytic copper inventory and COMEX copper inventory have increased [3]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Hold previous long positions cautiously. Pay attention to the support level around 83,000 - 85,000 and the pressure levels around 90,000 - 97,000/107,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 10,100 - 10,500 and the pressure level around 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper; the support level around 4.8 - 5.0 and the pressure level around 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The weak U.S. employment performance has increased the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December, and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Copper Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 87,430, with a trading volume of 94,508 lots, an open interest of 218,257 lots, and an inventory of 35,244 tons. The price increased by 440 compared to the previous day, the trading volume decreased by 810 lots, the open interest increased by 7,573 lots, and the inventory decreased by 629 tons [3] - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic disk) on November 28, 2025, was 11,175.5, up 245.5 from the previous day. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 44.69, up 28.13 from the previous day, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 195, up 28.75 from the previous day [3] - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on November 28, 2025, was 5.278, up 0.17 from November 25. The total inventory was 418,727, an increase of 2,847 from November 25 [3] 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: There are production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. Scrap copper supply has increased, and domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November decreased month - on - month [3] - **Demand Side**: The capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, copper enameled strip, copper tube, and brass rod increased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods decreased, and that of recycled copper rods remained flat. High copper prices suppressed downstream purchasing willingness [3] - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper decreased compared to last week, the inventory of LME electrolytic copper increased, and the COMEX copper inventory increased [3] 3.3 Trading Strategy - Short - term, lightly - position, and try to go long on the main contract at low prices. Pay attention to the support level around 83,000 - 85,000 and the pressure levels around 90,000 - 97,000/107,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 10,100 - 10,500 and the pressure level around 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper, and the support level around 4.8 - 5.0 and the pressure level around 5.5 - 6.0 for U.S. copper [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The weak employment performance in the US has increased the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December, and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 87,430 yuan, up 440 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 94,508 lots, down 810 lots; open interest was 218,257 lots, up 7,573 lots; inventory was 35,244 tons, down 629 tons [3]. - **London Copper**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was $11,175.5, up $245.5 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was $44.69, up $28.13; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was $195, up $28.75 [3]. - **COMEX Copper**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was $5.278, up $0.17 from the previous day; total inventory was 418,727 tons, up 2,847 tons [3]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: There are production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, resulting in a continuous negative China copper concentrate import index, leading to a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. Scrap copper supply has increased, and domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November decreased month - on - month [3]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, copper enameled strip, copper tube, and brass rod increased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rod decreased, and that of recycled copper rod remained flat. Higher copper prices have curbed downstream purchasing意愿 [3]. 3.3 Inventory Situation - China's electrolytic copper social inventory decreased compared to last week, while LME electrolytic copper inventory and COMEX copper inventory increased [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Short - term traders can lightly go long on the main contract on dips. Pay attention to the support level around 83,000 - 85,000 yuan and the resistance levels around 90,000 - 97,000/107,000 yuan for Shanghai copper; the support level around 10,100 - 10,500 for London copper and 12,300 - 13,500; and the support level around 4.8 - 5.0 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased, and there are production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish. The weak employment performance in the US has led to an increase in the probability of a Fed rate cut in December, and production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have made the import index of copper concentrates in China continuously negative, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation of domestic copper concentrates. Although the supply of scrap copper has increased and the processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month, the overall situation still supports a relatively strong copper price [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Copper Futures - **Price and Volume Data**: On November 27, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 86,990, up 400 from the previous day; the trading volume was 95,318 lots, down 11,895 lots; the open interest was 210,684 lots, up 5,956 lots; the inventory was 35,873 tons, down 3,952 tons. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper semi - average price was 87,085, up 430 [2]. - **Basis and Premium Data**: The Shanghai copper basis was 95, up 30; the SMM + water copper opening discount semi - average price was 55, up 20; the SMM premium copper opening discount semi - average price was 175, up 25; the SMM RMB Yangshan copper premium - average price was 283.12, down 0.07 [2]. - **Spread Data**: The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai copper was - 60, down 30; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was - 40, down 30; the spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 10, down 30.001 [2]. 3.2 London Copper - **Price and Spread Data**: On November 27, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,930, down 23. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 0, down 30.83; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 0, down 138.27. The ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 7.9588, up 0.05 [2]. 3.3 COMEX Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: On November 26, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 5.2035, up 0.20. The total inventory was 417,666, up 8,281 [2]. 3.4 Supply, Demand and Inventory - **Supply**: There are production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, making the import index of copper concentrates in China continuously negative, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation of domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month [2]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, copper enameled strip, copper tube, and brass rod have increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rod has decreased compared with last week, and the capacity utilization rate of recycled copper rod has remained the same as last week [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China has decreased compared with last week, the inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange has increased compared with last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased compared with last week [2]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Short - term traders can lightly go long on the main contract at low prices. Pay attention to the support levels around 82,000 - 84,000 and the resistance levels around 88,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper; the support levels around 10,300 - 10,500 and the resistance levels around 11,000 - 11,500 for London copper; the support levels around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance levels around 5.2 - 5.5 for US copper [2].

Report Title - The report is titled "Shanghai Copper Daily Review 20251128: Rising Expectations of Fed Rate Cut in December Support Copper Prices" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The rising probability of a Fed rate cut in December and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines may lead to a cautiously bullish trend in Shanghai copper prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract - On November 27, 2025, the closing price was 86,990, up 400 from the previous day; trading volume was 95,318 lots, down 11,895; open interest was 210,684 lots, up 5,956; inventory was 35,873 tons, down 3,952 [2] Shanghai Copper Basis or Spot Premium/Discount - On November 27, 2025, the SMM 1 electrolytic copper half - average price was 87,085, up 430 from the previous day; SMM + water copper opening discount half - average price was 55, up 20; SMM premium copper opening discount half - average price was 175, up 25 [2] London Copper - On November 27, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,930, down 23 from the previous day; LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was 0, down 30.83; LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contract spread was 0, down 138.27 [2] COMEX Copper - On November 26, 2025, the copper futures active contract closing price was 5.2035, up 0.20 from November 24; total inventory was 417,666, up 8,281 from November 24 [2] Supply - demand Situation - On the supply side, production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have led to a negative China copper concentrate import index, indicating a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. Scrap copper supply has increased, and domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, copper enameled strip, copper tube, and brass rod have increased compared to last week, while the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods has decreased, and that of recycled copper rods has remained flat. In terms of inventory, China's electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased compared to last week, while LME and COMEX copper inventories have increased [2] Trading Strategy - Short - term traders can lightly go long on the main contract on dips. Pay attention to the support levels around 82,000 - 84,000 and resistance levels around 88,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper; support levels around 10,300 - 10,500 and resistance levels around 11,000 - 11,500 for London copper; support levels around 4.5 - 4.8 and resistance levels around 5.2 - 5.5 for US copper [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The weak employment performance in the US has increased the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December, and multiple overseas copper mines have production disturbances, which may make the Shanghai copper price cautiously bullish [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - On November 26, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai copper futures active contract was 86,590, a decrease of 10 from the previous day; the trading volume was 107,213 lots, an increase of 20,231 lots; the open interest was 204,728 lots, an increase of 5,146 lots; the inventory was 39,825 tons, a decrease of 1,140 tons [2] - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 86,655, an increase of 45; the average price of SMM + water copper open discount was 35, an increase of 5; the average price of SMM premium copper open discount was 150, an increase of 5; the average price of SMM mixed copper open discount was -35, unchanged; the average price of SMM Guixi copper open discount was 175, an increase of 5 [2] - The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic disk) was 10,953, an increase of 120.5; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was 30.83, an increase of 21.31; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contract spread was 138.27, a decrease of 8.99; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.9056, a decrease of 0.09 [2] Supply - Demand - Inventory - Supply side: There are disturbances in the production of multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, the China copper concentrate import index continues to be negative, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation of domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates have increased. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month [2] - Demand side: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared with last week, while the capacity utilization rate of recycled copper cups has decreased [2] - Inventory side: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has decreased compared with last week, the inventory of LME electrolytic copper has increased compared with last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased compared with last week [2] Trading Strategy - Short - term, lightly go long on the main contract on dips. Pay attention to the support level around 82,000 - 84,000 and the resistance level around 88,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper. For LME copper, pay attention to the support level around 10,300 - 10,500 and the resistance level around 11,000 - 11,500. For US copper, pay attention to the support level around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance level around 5.2 - 5.5 [2]