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国内财政与货币政策宽松预期推升铜价:沪铜日评20251212-20251212
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-12-12 02:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Due to the expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cut and balance sheet expansion, production disturbances in multiple overseas copper mines, and the expectations of loose domestic fiscal and monetary policies, the price of Shanghai copper may be cautiously bullish [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Copper Futures - On December 12, 2025, the closing price of the active Shanghai copper futures contract was 92,210, up 360 from the previous day; the trading volume was 138,584 lots, down 7,482; the open interest was 190,380 lots, down 9,993; the inventory was 31,461 tons, up 2,530; the Shanghai copper spread was 455, up 605; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 92,665, up 965 [3]. 3.2 London Copper - On December 11, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 11,833.5, up 274 from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was not available; the spread of the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract was 0, down 11.69; the spread of the LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contract was 0, down 243.5; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 7.7923, down 0.15 [3]. 3.3 COMEX Copper - On December 11, 2025, the closing price of the active COMEX copper futures contract was 5.488, up 0.16 from the previous day; the total inventory weight was 447,298, up 4,251 [3]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply side: There are production disturbances in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in December has decreased month - on - month. - Demand side: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods and recycled copper rods have decreased compared to last week, while those of copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased. High copper prices have led to downstream rigid - demand purchases. - Inventory side: The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China, the inventory of electrolytic copper in the LME, and the inventory of COMEX copper have all increased compared to last week [3]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - The main strategy is to lay out long positions when the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 85,000 - 90,000 and the resistance level around 97,000 - 107,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 10,600 - 11,000 and the resistance level around 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper; and the support level around 5.0 - 5.2 and the resistance level around 5.6 - 6.0 for US copper [3].
沪铜日评20251211:高位价格抑制下游需求施压铜价-20251211
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-12-11 02:19
1. Report Title - The report is titled "Shanghai Copper Daily Report 20251211: High Prices Suppress Downstream Demand and Pressure Copper Prices" [2] 2. Key Data of Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contracts 2.1 Trading Volume - On December 10, 2025, the trading volume was 143,313 hands, compared with 146,066 hands on December 9, 2025, a decrease of 44,343 hands [3] 2.2 Open Interest - On December 10, 2025, the open interest was 200,373 hands, compared with 210,572 hands on December 9, 2025, a decrease of 10,199 hands [3] 2.3 Inventory - On December 10, 2025, the inventory was 28,931 tons, compared with 29,531 tons on December 9, 2025, a decrease of 600 tons [3] 3. Other Copper - Related Data 3.1 Copper Spot Premium and Discount - SMM 1 electrolytic copper - semi - average price on December 10, 2025, was 92,215, a decrease of 515 compared with the previous day [3] - SMM flat - water copper open - premium/discount - average price on December 10, 2025, was - 55, a decrease of 10 compared with the previous day [3] 3.2 Copper Price Spreads - Shanghai - London copper price ratio on December 10, 2025, was 7.9458 [3] - LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on December 10, 2025, was 11,559.5 [3] 4. Supply - Demand - Inventory Analysis 4.1 Supply - There are disturbances in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, making the Chinese copper concentrate import index continuously negative, leading to a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. The scrap copper supply has increased, and the domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in December has decreased compared with the previous month [3] 4.2 Demand - The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods and recycled copper rods have decreased compared with the previous week, while those of copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased. High copper prices have led to downstream rigid - demand procurement [3] 4.3 Inventory - The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper, the inventory of LME electrolytic copper, and the COMEX copper inventory have all increased compared with the previous week [3] 5. Core Viewpoint - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion, and production disturbances in multiple overseas copper mines exist. However, high copper prices suppress downstream demand and lead to the expectation of inventory accumulation, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to adjust [3] 6. Trading Strategy - Wait for the price to fall and then layout long positions. Pay attention to the support level of 85,000 - 90,000 and the resistance level of 97,000 - 107,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level of 10,600 - 11,000 and the resistance level of 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper; the support level of 5.0 - 5.2 and the resistance level of 5.6 - 6.0 for US copper [3]
高位价格抑制下游需求施压铜价:沪铜日评20251210-20251210
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-12-10 01:23
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [3] 2. Core View - High copper prices are suppressing downstream demand, leading to inventory accumulation expectations and potential adjustments in Shanghai copper prices. The report suggests that investors take profits on previous long positions at high prices, wait for price corrections to establish new long positions, and pay attention to support and resistance levels for different copper markets [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Shanghai Copper Futures - **Closing Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures mixed contract on December 9, 2025, was 91,090, down 1,880 from the previous day [3] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume on December 9, 2025, was 190,409 lots, a decrease of 4,520 lots from the previous day [3] - **Open Interest**: The open interest on December 9, 2025, was 210,572 lots, a decrease of 19,473 lots from the previous day [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory on December 9, 2025, was 29,531 tons, a decrease of 425 tons from the previous day [3] - **Basis and Premium**: Various basis and premium indicators showed different changes, such as the Shanghai copper basis (SMM 1 electrolytic copper - average price) increasing by 1,795 [3] 3.2 London Copper Futures - **Closing Price**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures on December 9, 2025, was 11,470, down 205 from the previous day [3] - **Contract Spreads**: The 0 - 3 month and 3 - 15 month contract spreads of LME copper futures showed different degrees of decline [3] 3.3 COMEX Copper Futures - **Closing Price**: The closing price of the COMEX copper futures active contract on December 9, 2025, was 5.3295, down 0.12 from the previous day [3] - **Total Inventory**: The total inventory on December 9, 2025, was 443,047, an increase of 6,194 from the previous day [3] 3.4 Supply - Demand - Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: There are production disturbances at multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tightening supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. Scrap copper supply has increased, and domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in December has decreased month - on - month [3] - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods and recycled copper rods has decreased compared to last week, while the capacity utilization rates of copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased. High copper prices have led to downstream rigid - demand procurement [3] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper, the inventory of LME electrolytic copper, and the inventory of COMEX copper have all increased compared to last week [3] 3.5 Trading Strategy - Take profits on previous long positions at high prices, wait for price corrections to establish new long positions, and pay attention to support and resistance levels: 85,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper, 10,600 - 11,000 for London copper, and 5.0 - 5.2 for US copper; resistance levels are 97,000 - 107,000 for Shanghai copper, 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper, and 5.6 - 6.0 for US copper [3]
非美地区电解铜供需预期趋紧支撑铜价:沪铜日评20251208-20251208
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-12-08 02:16
Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Shanghai Copper Daily Review 20251208: Tightening Supply - Demand Expectations of Electrolytic Copper in Non - US Regions Support Copper Prices" [2] Group 2: Market Data Shanghai Copper Futures - On December 5, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 92,780, up 1,800 from the previous day; trading volume was 188,062 lots, down 37,269; open interest was 236,494 lots, up 1,924; inventory was 30,936 tons, down 1,203; the basis was - 1,195, down 1,460 [3] - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 91,585, up 340; the average opening discount of SMM flat - water copper was 110, down 10; the average opening premium of SMM premium copper was 240, unchanged [3] London Copper - On December 5, 2025, the closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 11,665, up 231 from the previous day; the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 23.05, down 27.39; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 279, up 44.49; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.9537, down 0.00 [3] COMEX Copper - On December 5, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 5.454, up 0.06 from the previous day; the total inventory was 436,853 tons, up 2,570 [3] Group 3: Core View - Due to production disturbances in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, the China copper concentrate import index remains negative, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. Although the supply of scrap copper has increased and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in December has decreased compared to the previous month, on the demand side, downstream buyers make rigid - need purchases due to high copper prices. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of electrolytic copper in China has decreased compared to last week, while the inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange and COMEX has increased. Considering the expected future interest - rate cuts by the Fed, the price of Shanghai copper may be cautiously bullish [3] Group 4: Trading Strategy - Hold long positions cautiously, pay attention to the support levels of 83,000 - 85,000 and the resistance levels of 90,000 - 97,000/107,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level of 10,100 - 10,500 and the resistance level of 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper; and the support level of 4.8 - 5.0 and the resistance level of 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [3]
非美地区电解铜供需预期趋紧支撑铜价:沪铜日评20251205-20251205
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-12-05 02:19
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Fed's future interest - rate cut expectations are rising, there are production disturbances in multiple overseas copper mines, and the supply - demand outlook for electrolytic copper in non - US regions is tightening, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 86,060, with an increase of 1,770 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 225,331 lots, an increase of 99,349 lots. The open interest was 234,570 lots, an increase of 10,586 lots. The inventory was 32,139 tons, an increase of 3,170 tons [3]. - **London Copper**: On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 11,434, a decrease of 14.5 compared to the previous day. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 50.44, a decrease of 37.94 [3]. - **COMEX Copper**: On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.362, an increase of 0.12 compared to the previous day. The total inventory was 435,831, an increase of 3,893 [3]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: There are production disturbances in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight supply - demand outlook for domestic copper concentrates. Scrap copper supply has increased, domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in December has decreased month - on - month [3]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled tape, copper tube, and brass rod have increased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rod has decreased, and that of recycled copper rod has remained flat. High copper prices have led to downstream rigid - demand purchases [3]. - **Inventory**: China's social inventory of electrolytic copper has decreased compared to last week, while the LME's electrolytic copper inventory and COMEX copper inventory have increased [3]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Hold previous long positions cautiously. Pay attention to the support level around 83,000 - 85,000 and the pressure levels around 90,000 - 97,000/107,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 10,100 - 10,500 and the pressure level around 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper; the support level around 4.8 - 5.0 and the pressure level around 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [3].
沪铜日评20251201:美联储12月降息预期升温支撑铜价-20251201
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 04:52
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The weak U.S. employment performance has increased the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December, and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Copper Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 87,430, with a trading volume of 94,508 lots, an open interest of 218,257 lots, and an inventory of 35,244 tons. The price increased by 440 compared to the previous day, the trading volume decreased by 810 lots, the open interest increased by 7,573 lots, and the inventory decreased by 629 tons [3] - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic disk) on November 28, 2025, was 11,175.5, up 245.5 from the previous day. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 44.69, up 28.13 from the previous day, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 195, up 28.75 from the previous day [3] - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on November 28, 2025, was 5.278, up 0.17 from November 25. The total inventory was 418,727, an increase of 2,847 from November 25 [3] 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: There are production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. Scrap copper supply has increased, and domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November decreased month - on - month [3] - **Demand Side**: The capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, copper enameled strip, copper tube, and brass rod increased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods decreased, and that of recycled copper rods remained flat. High copper prices suppressed downstream purchasing willingness [3] - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper decreased compared to last week, the inventory of LME electrolytic copper increased, and the COMEX copper inventory increased [3] 3.3 Trading Strategy - Short - term, lightly - position, and try to go long on the main contract at low prices. Pay attention to the support level around 83,000 - 85,000 and the pressure levels around 90,000 - 97,000/107,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 10,100 - 10,500 and the pressure level around 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper, and the support level around 4.8 - 5.0 and the pressure level around 5.5 - 6.0 for U.S. copper [3]
美联储12月降息预期升温支撑铜价:沪铜日评20251201-20251201
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 02:59
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The weak employment performance in the US has increased the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December, and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 87,430 yuan, up 440 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 94,508 lots, down 810 lots; open interest was 218,257 lots, up 7,573 lots; inventory was 35,244 tons, down 629 tons [3]. - **London Copper**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was $11,175.5, up $245.5 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was $44.69, up $28.13; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was $195, up $28.75 [3]. - **COMEX Copper**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was $5.278, up $0.17 from the previous day; total inventory was 418,727 tons, up 2,847 tons [3]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: There are production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, resulting in a continuous negative China copper concentrate import index, leading to a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. Scrap copper supply has increased, and domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November decreased month - on - month [3]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, copper enameled strip, copper tube, and brass rod increased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rod decreased, and that of recycled copper rod remained flat. Higher copper prices have curbed downstream purchasing意愿 [3]. 3.3 Inventory Situation - China's electrolytic copper social inventory decreased compared to last week, while LME electrolytic copper inventory and COMEX copper inventory increased [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Short - term traders can lightly go long on the main contract on dips. Pay attention to the support level around 83,000 - 85,000 yuan and the resistance levels around 90,000 - 97,000/107,000 yuan for Shanghai copper; the support level around 10,100 - 10,500 for London copper and 12,300 - 13,500; and the support level around 4.8 - 5.0 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [3].
沪铜日评20251128:美联储12月降息预期升温支撑铜价-20251128
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased, and there are production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish. The weak employment performance in the US has led to an increase in the probability of a Fed rate cut in December, and production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have made the import index of copper concentrates in China continuously negative, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation of domestic copper concentrates. Although the supply of scrap copper has increased and the processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month, the overall situation still supports a relatively strong copper price [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Copper Futures - **Price and Volume Data**: On November 27, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 86,990, up 400 from the previous day; the trading volume was 95,318 lots, down 11,895 lots; the open interest was 210,684 lots, up 5,956 lots; the inventory was 35,873 tons, down 3,952 tons. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper semi - average price was 87,085, up 430 [2]. - **Basis and Premium Data**: The Shanghai copper basis was 95, up 30; the SMM + water copper opening discount semi - average price was 55, up 20; the SMM premium copper opening discount semi - average price was 175, up 25; the SMM RMB Yangshan copper premium - average price was 283.12, down 0.07 [2]. - **Spread Data**: The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai copper was - 60, down 30; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was - 40, down 30; the spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 10, down 30.001 [2]. 3.2 London Copper - **Price and Spread Data**: On November 27, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,930, down 23. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 0, down 30.83; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 0, down 138.27. The ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 7.9588, up 0.05 [2]. 3.3 COMEX Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: On November 26, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 5.2035, up 0.20. The total inventory was 417,666, up 8,281 [2]. 3.4 Supply, Demand and Inventory - **Supply**: There are production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, making the import index of copper concentrates in China continuously negative, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation of domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month [2]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, copper enameled strip, copper tube, and brass rod have increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rod has decreased compared with last week, and the capacity utilization rate of recycled copper rod has remained the same as last week [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China has decreased compared with last week, the inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange has increased compared with last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased compared with last week [2]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Short - term traders can lightly go long on the main contract at low prices. Pay attention to the support levels around 82,000 - 84,000 and the resistance levels around 88,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper; the support levels around 10,300 - 10,500 and the resistance levels around 11,000 - 11,500 for London copper; the support levels around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance levels around 5.2 - 5.5 for US copper [2].
美联储12月降息预期升温支撑铜价:沪铜日评20251128-20251128
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 01:04
Report Title - The report is titled "Shanghai Copper Daily Review 20251128: Rising Expectations of Fed Rate Cut in December Support Copper Prices" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The rising probability of a Fed rate cut in December and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines may lead to a cautiously bullish trend in Shanghai copper prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract - On November 27, 2025, the closing price was 86,990, up 400 from the previous day; trading volume was 95,318 lots, down 11,895; open interest was 210,684 lots, up 5,956; inventory was 35,873 tons, down 3,952 [2] Shanghai Copper Basis or Spot Premium/Discount - On November 27, 2025, the SMM 1 electrolytic copper half - average price was 87,085, up 430 from the previous day; SMM + water copper opening discount half - average price was 55, up 20; SMM premium copper opening discount half - average price was 175, up 25 [2] London Copper - On November 27, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,930, down 23 from the previous day; LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was 0, down 30.83; LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contract spread was 0, down 138.27 [2] COMEX Copper - On November 26, 2025, the copper futures active contract closing price was 5.2035, up 0.20 from November 24; total inventory was 417,666, up 8,281 from November 24 [2] Supply - demand Situation - On the supply side, production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have led to a negative China copper concentrate import index, indicating a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. Scrap copper supply has increased, and domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, copper enameled strip, copper tube, and brass rod have increased compared to last week, while the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods has decreased, and that of recycled copper rods has remained flat. In terms of inventory, China's electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased compared to last week, while LME and COMEX copper inventories have increased [2] Trading Strategy - Short - term traders can lightly go long on the main contract on dips. Pay attention to the support levels around 82,000 - 84,000 and resistance levels around 88,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper; support levels around 10,300 - 10,500 and resistance levels around 11,000 - 11,500 for London copper; support levels around 4.5 - 4.8 and resistance levels around 5.2 - 5.5 for US copper [2]
沪铜日评:美联储12月降息预期升温支撑铜价-20251127
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-27 05:06
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The weak employment performance in the US has increased the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December, and multiple overseas copper mines have production disturbances, which may make the Shanghai copper price cautiously bullish [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - On November 26, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai copper futures active contract was 86,590, a decrease of 10 from the previous day; the trading volume was 107,213 lots, an increase of 20,231 lots; the open interest was 204,728 lots, an increase of 5,146 lots; the inventory was 39,825 tons, a decrease of 1,140 tons [2] - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 86,655, an increase of 45; the average price of SMM + water copper open discount was 35, an increase of 5; the average price of SMM premium copper open discount was 150, an increase of 5; the average price of SMM mixed copper open discount was -35, unchanged; the average price of SMM Guixi copper open discount was 175, an increase of 5 [2] - The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic disk) was 10,953, an increase of 120.5; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was 30.83, an increase of 21.31; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contract spread was 138.27, a decrease of 8.99; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.9056, a decrease of 0.09 [2] Supply - Demand - Inventory - Supply side: There are disturbances in the production of multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, the China copper concentrate import index continues to be negative, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation of domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates have increased. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month [2] - Demand side: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared with last week, while the capacity utilization rate of recycled copper cups has decreased [2] - Inventory side: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has decreased compared with last week, the inventory of LME electrolytic copper has increased compared with last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased compared with last week [2] Trading Strategy - Short - term, lightly go long on the main contract on dips. Pay attention to the support level around 82,000 - 84,000 and the resistance level around 88,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper. For LME copper, pay attention to the support level around 10,300 - 10,500 and the resistance level around 11,000 - 11,500. For US copper, pay attention to the support level around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance level around 5.2 - 5.5 [2]