Core Viewpoint - UBS has adopted a rare "triple bearish" stance, issuing warnings on the US economy, the US dollar, and US equities simultaneously [1] Economic Outlook - UBS predicts a sharp slowdown in US GDP growth from 2.0% in Q2 to 0.9% in Q4, significantly below the consensus estimate of 1% [7] - Indicators such as a sharp decline in private sector work hours and a weaker ISM employment index suggest an inevitable economic slowdown [2] Interest Rate Expectations - UBS forecasts a 1% decrease in interest rates by year-end, which is double the market consensus of 50 basis points [8] - The report highlights that the sensitivity of the economy to short-term rates is unusually low due to a high proportion of fixed-rate debt [9] US Dollar Analysis - UBS maintains a long-term bearish outlook on the US dollar, citing a net investment position of -88% of GDP as a condition for a necessary correction before a new dollar bull market [11][13] - Despite a recent rebound in the dollar, UBS argues that the fundamental logic for a dollar bear market remains intact [15] Equity Market Risks - UBS sets a year-end target of 960 points for the MSCI global index and 1000 points for 2026, while warning of significant downside risks [16] - Concerns include high valuations, positioning worries, and the concentration of earnings growth in large tech firms [21] - UBS identifies a 25% probability of entering a bubble if the Fed lowers rates as expected [20] Sector-Specific Concerns - The report indicates that approximately 70% of earnings growth is driven by generative AI, but warns that capital expenditure growth for large firms may slow significantly [21] - UBS believes that the market is underestimating tariff risks, as many non-US countries are reducing trade barriers [22]