Core Viewpoint - The report from Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities suggests that the depreciation of the yen may continue unless the Japanese government intervenes in the foreign exchange market, with a forecast of the yen reaching 160 against the dollar by the end of the year [1] Group 1 - The current trading level of USD/JPY is around 156.55 [1] - Market focus is shifting towards the U.S. economy following the conclusion of the Japanese elections [1] - Increased uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's policies or concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy could lead to increased selling pressure on the dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are experiencing fluctuations as investors assess the progress of nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, with WTI closing above $63 per barrel and market reactions being significant to related news [1][5]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - WTI crude oil increased by 0.4% in March, settling at $63.55 per barrel [2][8]. - Brent crude oil rose by 0.7% to $68.05 per barrel in April [3][9]. - Oil prices expanded their gains following unexpected data showing U.S. consumer confidence rising to a six-month high, alleviating concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy and its impact on oil demand [7]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif stated that the negotiations had a "good start," but reports indicate Tehran's insistence on continuing uranium enrichment, which remains a primary concern for the U.S. [1][5]. - Traders are weighing geopolitical tensions while also considering the potential for oversupply in the oil market [6]. - The recent U.S.-Iran talks have contributed to easing fears of a broader conflict in the region, leading to the first weekly decline in oil prices since mid-December [7].

周三，此前市场挤出杠杆头寸后贵金属延续周二的震荡修复行情，当前市场处于技术性超跌后 的空头回补与头寸重建，此外就近两天回调幅度来看目前投资者在谨慎试探市场上行阻力位。 2026 年 1 月 ADP 数据显示，美国私营部门仅新增 2.2 万个就业岗位，增幅远低于预期，印证了 劳动力市场的持续放缓。ADP 报告明确指出，私营部门仅新增 2.2 万人，若非教育医疗行业贡 献 7.4 万人的增长形成支撑，整体就业数据将陷入负增长。从行业表现来看，制造业、专业/ 商业服务等非刚需行业持续处于收缩状态，大型企业裁员现象突出，这一态势充分凸显出美国 劳动力市场正在逐步放缓；不过，教育医疗等刚需行业仍保持较强韧性。 由于 1 月非农就业报告的延期发布，ADP 数据大幅不及预期无疑将强化对美国经济放缓的判断， 叠加美联储当前票委的立场占比或将进一步推动市场对于未来降息节奏加快的预期。但另一方 面，教育医疗等刚需行业的稳定表现对经济形成支撑，加之 ISM 非制造业 PMI 也未出现显著恶 化，表明美国经济仍具备一定韧性，美联储的降息幅度或仍将保持相对谨慎。 美国财政部季度再融资声明维持长期国债发行规模不变，且未释放削减长期债券供 ...

Group 1: AMD Performance and Market Reaction - AMD's stock price experienced a significant drop of 17.31%, marking the largest single-day decline since May 2017, driven by concerns over its earnings guidance and rising operational costs [1][3] - In Q4, AMD reported revenue of $10.27 billion, a 34% year-over-year increase, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.53, and data center revenue grew by 39% to $5.38 billion, exceeding market expectations [3] - Despite strong Q4 performance, AMD's Q1 revenue guidance of $9.8 billion, while above the consensus of $9.38 billion, did not meet some analysts' expectations of $10 billion, raising concerns about growth momentum [3] Group 2: Factors Affecting AMD's Outlook - AMD's Q4 revenue included $390 million from the sale of older Instinct MI308 chips in China, which was not anticipated in initial market forecasts, and this revenue is expected to drop to around $100 million in Q1 [3] - The company's operational expenses are projected to reach $3.05 billion in Q1, growing at a rate that outpaces revenue growth, which could compress profit margins and heighten investor concerns [3] - Intense competition in the AI chip sector, particularly with NVIDIA, and the delayed production of the next-generation MI450 series GPU until the second half of the year contribute to AMD's short-term challenges [3] Group 3: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The ADP private sector employment data for January showed only 22,000 new jobs added, significantly below the expected 45,000, indicating a cooling labor market [4] - The manufacturing sector lost 8,000 jobs, and professional and business services saw a decline of 57,000 jobs, reflecting a broader trend of "low hiring and layoffs" across various industries [4] - The weak employment data raises concerns about the U.S. economic recovery momentum and could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, potentially affecting market risk appetite [4][5] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The decline in AMD's stock has put pressure on the broader technology sector, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index nearing a 2% drop, exacerbated by economic concerns stemming from the ADP report [5] - Market interpretations of AMD's performance and the ADP data show significant divergence, with some analysts remaining optimistic about AMD's core business and AI demand, while others express caution due to high valuations and competitive pressures [5][6] - Key variables influencing future trends include AMD's Q1 performance, changes in revenue from the Chinese market, operational cost management, and the production timeline of new AI chips, alongside upcoming official employment and inflation data that will guide Federal Reserve policy [6]

截至北京时间1月30日亚市尾盘，美元指数延续阶段性弱势运行，最新报价围绕96.00一线窄幅波动，盘 中最低触及95.85，创下2022年2月以来的阶段性新低。2026年开年至今，美元指数自99.30附近高位持续 回落，累计跌幅已超3%，空头趋势明朗，市场对美元的悲观预期持续发酵，弱势格局成为当前汇市核 心特征。 RSI相对强弱指标：日线RSI持续处于30以下的超卖区间，短期存在技术性修复的反弹需求，但指标尚 未出现底背离形态，超卖并不意味着趋势反转，更多是下跌过程中的阶段性休整，反弹高度大概率受 限。 MACD指标：MACD快慢线持续运行于零轴下方，死叉状态维持，空头能量柱虽未显著放大，但始终保 持正值，说明下行动能仍在持续释放，暂无明显的多头反攻信号。 布林带指标：价格紧贴布林带下轨运行，布林带开口逐步扩大，表明市场波动加剧，空头趋势的延续性 较强，短期反弹大概率受制于布林带中轨(96.80附近)。 非美货币：欧元、英镑、日元等G10主流非美货币同步走强，欧元兑美元回升至1.10上方，英镑兑美元 站稳1.28关口，商品货币(加元、澳元)受益于大宗商品上涨，对美元升值幅度更为显著，直接拖累美元 指数表现。 美 ...

欧元/美元 上一个交易日欧元震荡下行，日线小幅收跌，现汇价交投于1.1790附近。除获利回吐对汇价构成了一定 的打压外，美国表现良好的初请失业金数据也对汇价构成了一定的打压。不过，对欧洲央行降息接近尾 声的预期限制了汇价的回调空间。今日关注1.1900附近的压力情况，下方支撑在1.1700附近。 英镑/美元 上一个交易日英镑震荡下行，日线小幅收跌，现汇价交投于1.3510附近。除获利回吐对汇价构成了一定 的打压外，日前美国表现良好的初请失业金数据也对英镑构成了一定的打压。不过，对英国央行降息接 近尾声的预期限制了汇价的下跌空间。今日关注1.3600附近的压力情况，下方支撑在1.3400附近。 12月26日，德意志银行首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzetti指出，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔曾在意见分 歧的美联储内部达成共识，推动今年三次降息。但如果通胀持续高企而就业市场依然疲软，新任美联储 主席可能更难推动形成共识。 Luzzetti表示："尽管最可能的路径仍是未来进一步降息，但我们也看到一 种风险情境，即下一任主席最终可能面临一个考虑加息的美联储委员会。" 亨廷顿银行首席经济学家伊 恩·怀亚特称："新任 ...

在最新公布的美国11月非农就业报告中,新增就业岗位6.4万人,略高于市场此前约5万人的预期。这一结 果在数据层面一度被解读为"就业韧性仍存",短线提振美元指数,并对黄金形成阶段性压制。高地集团认 为:如果仅凭单一指标得出"经济向好"的结论,显然忽视了非农数据背后更具指向性的结构变化,从趋势和 质量角度来看,这份看似超预期的报告,反而强化了市场对美国经济放缓的担忧。 非农好于预期,却难掩就业基本面走弱 更值得关注的是失业率变化,11月美国失业率从9月的4.4%上升至4.6%,创下2021年以来新高,失业率上行 通常意味着两种情况之一: 一是更多劳动力重新进入市场却未能成功就业; 无论哪一种,都指向劳动力市场的内在疲软。从就业结构来看,新增岗位更可能集中于临时性、低薪或服 务类岗位,而非具备长期稳定性的高附加值行业,这意味着就业"数量"尚可,但"质量"正在下滑,对居民消费 和经济增长的支撑能力有限。 降息预期不降反升,市场在定价趋势而非单点 尽管新增就业略超预期,但市场对美联储降息的判断并未发生逆转,相反在失业率上行和前值大幅下修的 背景下,利率期货市场迅速上调了2026年初降息的概率,最新数据显示,交易员对20 ...

Group 1: Report Core Views - US economic slowdown pressure increases, Fed's December rate - cut expectation surges, precious metals are oscillating with an upward bias; gold is short - term oscillating with an upward bias and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1] - L2601 contract of plastics is expected to run weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 6770 line [1] - Iron ore is expected to run within an oscillating range as supply is strong and demand is stable during the macro vacuum period [3] - The downward persistence of coking coal futures is to be observed due to potential year - end production decline and the upcoming Politburo meeting [4] - Steel prices may oscillate in the short term, and the upside space may be limited by weak off - season demand [4] - LH2601 contract of live pigs still has downward pressure and will remain weak after adjustment [5] - Palm oil prices are supported by future fundamentals, but the main contract is facing roll - over, so it is recommended to wait and see [5] - The 01 contract of soybean meal will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [7] - The bond market has entered an oscillating range again, and the operation difficulty has increased [7] - Silver is oscillating with an upward bias in the medium term [7] - Crude oil should be treated with an oscillating and weakening view [8] - The 01 contract of methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 2100 line [8] - The 01 contract of soda ash is expected to run weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 1190 line [9][10] Group 2: Industry Data Plastics - North China LLDPE mainstream price is 6919 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous day; LLDPE weekly output is 30.46 tons, down 1.19% week - on - week; production enterprise inventory is 16.61 tons, down 15.98% week - on - week; oil - based daily production profit is - 335 yuan/ton; the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products has increased by 0.2% week - on - week [1] Iron Ore - From November 17th to 23rd, the global iron ore shipping volume is 3278.4 tons, a decrease of 238.0 tons compared with the previous period; the shipping volume from Australia and Brazil is 2637.4 tons, a decrease of 271.3 tons; Australia's shipping volume is 1839.6 tons, a decrease of 210.9 tons, and the volume shipped to China is 1553.6 tons, a decrease of 319.4 tons [3] Coking Coal - This week, the daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines is 191.3 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons compared with the previous period; the daily output of raw coal in Shanxi is 110.2 tons, a decrease of 2 tons; 11 new coal mines have stopped production, involving a production capacity of 11.35 million tons; 1 new coal mine has resumed production, involving a production capacity of 1.75 million tons [4] Steel - On November 24th, domestic steel market prices mainly rose slightly; the ex - factory price of Tangshan Qian'an common billet resources increased by 30 to 2980 yuan/ton; 2 steel mills raised the ex - factory price of construction steel by 30 yuan/ton, and 2 steel mills lowered the ex - factory price by 20 - 30 yuan/ton; the average price of 20mm third - grade seismic - resistant rebar in 31 major cities across the country is 3283 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [4] Live Pigs - On November 26th, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market is 17.87 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.8% compared with the previous day; the price of eggs is 7.27 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.1% compared with the previous day [5] Palm Oil - From November 1st to 25th, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 3.34% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.41% month - on - month, and the output increased by 5.49% month - on - month [5] Soybean Meal - As of November 26th, the domestic soybean meal spot market price has increased steadily; the price in Tianjin market is 3060 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong market is 3000 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price in Jiangsu market is 2980 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the price in Guangdong market is 2970 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the national soybean meal inventory has reached 1.1515 million tons [6][7] Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - end varieties mostly declined; the overnight variety remained flat at 1.316%; the 7 - day variety increased by 2.0BP to 1.453%; the 14 - day variety decreased by 3.3BP to 1.507%; the 1 - month variety decreased by 0.1BP to 1.519% [7] Crude Oil - News shows that there are still differences among parties regarding the "peace plan" for Ukraine, and all parties need time to weigh their interests [8] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2088 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton; the domestic methanol weekly capacity utilization rate is 88.75%, an increase of 1.8%; the downstream total capacity utilization rate is 74.77%, an increase of 0.42% week - on - week; the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples is 1.3635 million tons, a decrease of 115,800 tons week - on - week; the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 373,700 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons week - on - week; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises are 230,700 tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons week - on - week [8] Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1261 yuan/ton, and the price has been relatively stable recently; the weekly output of soda ash is 739,200 tons, a decrease of 1.02% compared with the previous period; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.7073 million tons, a decrease of 0.4% week - on - week; the operating rate of float glass is 75%, a decrease of 0.92 percentage points week - on - week; the average price of national float glass is 1091 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day; the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 63.247 million weight cases, a decrease of 0.18% compared with the previous period [9]

今日周三(11月26日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于51.81一线上方，今日开盘于51.34美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报51.98美元/盎司，上涨1.00%，最高触及52.17美元/盎司，最低下探51.25美元/盎司，目 前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 周二出炉的数据显示，美国9月零售销售增长不及预期，同时生产者价格指数(PPI)同比增长2.7%，与8 月增幅持平。这些数据进一步印证了美国经济放缓的趋势，促使市场重新定价美联储政策路径。 另外美联储继续放出"鸽声"，其中米兰作为降息强力的拥趸者，继续呼吁12月降息，他希望就业数据能 说服美联储的其他人支持降息，失业率的上升是因为货币政策太紧了。他不认为存在通货膨胀的问题， 虽然担心生活成本上升的问题，但美联储的政策需要向前看。他还认为，美联储应该会很快会达到中性 利率。 此前沃勒也表示，就业市场疲弱已足以支持12月份再降息25个基点，而纽约联储主席威廉姆斯上周的类 似表态，也进一步巩固了市场的信心。 【最新伦敦银行情解析】 与此同时，美元指数刷新一周低点，10年期美债收益率在一个月低点附近徘徊。根据芝商所FedWatch 工具，市场目前 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 高盛集团经济学家预计，美联储将在12月降息，使利率降至略高于3%的水平，美国经济放缓的幅度可 能超出预期。 ...