欧元/美元 上一个交易日欧元震荡下行，日线小幅收跌，现汇价交投于1.1790附近。除获利回吐对汇价构成了一定 的打压外，美国表现良好的初请失业金数据也对汇价构成了一定的打压。不过，对欧洲央行降息接近尾 声的预期限制了汇价的回调空间。今日关注1.1900附近的压力情况，下方支撑在1.1700附近。 英镑/美元 上一个交易日英镑震荡下行，日线小幅收跌，现汇价交投于1.3510附近。除获利回吐对汇价构成了一定 的打压外，日前美国表现良好的初请失业金数据也对英镑构成了一定的打压。不过，对英国央行降息接 近尾声的预期限制了汇价的下跌空间。今日关注1.3600附近的压力情况，下方支撑在1.3400附近。 12月26日，德意志银行首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzetti指出，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔曾在意见分 歧的美联储内部达成共识，推动今年三次降息。但如果通胀持续高企而就业市场依然疲软，新任美联储 主席可能更难推动形成共识。 Luzzetti表示："尽管最可能的路径仍是未来进一步降息，但我们也看到一 种风险情境，即下一任主席最终可能面临一个考虑加息的美联储委员会。" 亨廷顿银行首席经济学家伊 恩·怀亚特称："新任 ...

在最新公布的美国11月非农就业报告中,新增就业岗位6.4万人,略高于市场此前约5万人的预期。这一结 果在数据层面一度被解读为"就业韧性仍存",短线提振美元指数,并对黄金形成阶段性压制。高地集团认 为:如果仅凭单一指标得出"经济向好"的结论,显然忽视了非农数据背后更具指向性的结构变化,从趋势和 质量角度来看,这份看似超预期的报告,反而强化了市场对美国经济放缓的担忧。 非农好于预期,却难掩就业基本面走弱 更值得关注的是失业率变化,11月美国失业率从9月的4.4%上升至4.6%,创下2021年以来新高,失业率上行 通常意味着两种情况之一: 一是更多劳动力重新进入市场却未能成功就业; 无论哪一种,都指向劳动力市场的内在疲软。从就业结构来看,新增岗位更可能集中于临时性、低薪或服 务类岗位,而非具备长期稳定性的高附加值行业,这意味着就业"数量"尚可,但"质量"正在下滑,对居民消费 和经济增长的支撑能力有限。 降息预期不降反升,市场在定价趋势而非单点 尽管新增就业略超预期,但市场对美联储降息的判断并未发生逆转,相反在失业率上行和前值大幅下修的 背景下,利率期货市场迅速上调了2026年初降息的概率,最新数据显示,交易员对20 ...

Group 1: Report Core Views - US economic slowdown pressure increases, Fed's December rate - cut expectation surges, precious metals are oscillating with an upward bias; gold is short - term oscillating with an upward bias and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1] - L2601 contract of plastics is expected to run weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 6770 line [1] - Iron ore is expected to run within an oscillating range as supply is strong and demand is stable during the macro vacuum period [3] - The downward persistence of coking coal futures is to be observed due to potential year - end production decline and the upcoming Politburo meeting [4] - Steel prices may oscillate in the short term, and the upside space may be limited by weak off - season demand [4] - LH2601 contract of live pigs still has downward pressure and will remain weak after adjustment [5] - Palm oil prices are supported by future fundamentals, but the main contract is facing roll - over, so it is recommended to wait and see [5] - The 01 contract of soybean meal will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [7] - The bond market has entered an oscillating range again, and the operation difficulty has increased [7] - Silver is oscillating with an upward bias in the medium term [7] - Crude oil should be treated with an oscillating and weakening view [8] - The 01 contract of methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 2100 line [8] - The 01 contract of soda ash is expected to run weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 1190 line [9][10] Group 2: Industry Data Plastics - North China LLDPE mainstream price is 6919 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous day; LLDPE weekly output is 30.46 tons, down 1.19% week - on - week; production enterprise inventory is 16.61 tons, down 15.98% week - on - week; oil - based daily production profit is - 335 yuan/ton; the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products has increased by 0.2% week - on - week [1] Iron Ore - From November 17th to 23rd, the global iron ore shipping volume is 3278.4 tons, a decrease of 238.0 tons compared with the previous period; the shipping volume from Australia and Brazil is 2637.4 tons, a decrease of 271.3 tons; Australia's shipping volume is 1839.6 tons, a decrease of 210.9 tons, and the volume shipped to China is 1553.6 tons, a decrease of 319.4 tons [3] Coking Coal - This week, the daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines is 191.3 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons compared with the previous period; the daily output of raw coal in Shanxi is 110.2 tons, a decrease of 2 tons; 11 new coal mines have stopped production, involving a production capacity of 11.35 million tons; 1 new coal mine has resumed production, involving a production capacity of 1.75 million tons [4] Steel - On November 24th, domestic steel market prices mainly rose slightly; the ex - factory price of Tangshan Qian'an common billet resources increased by 30 to 2980 yuan/ton; 2 steel mills raised the ex - factory price of construction steel by 30 yuan/ton, and 2 steel mills lowered the ex - factory price by 20 - 30 yuan/ton; the average price of 20mm third - grade seismic - resistant rebar in 31 major cities across the country is 3283 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [4] Live Pigs - On November 26th, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market is 17.87 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.8% compared with the previous day; the price of eggs is 7.27 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.1% compared with the previous day [5] Palm Oil - From November 1st to 25th, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 3.34% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.41% month - on - month, and the output increased by 5.49% month - on - month [5] Soybean Meal - As of November 26th, the domestic soybean meal spot market price has increased steadily; the price in Tianjin market is 3060 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong market is 3000 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price in Jiangsu market is 2980 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the price in Guangdong market is 2970 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the national soybean meal inventory has reached 1.1515 million tons [6][7] Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - end varieties mostly declined; the overnight variety remained flat at 1.316%; the 7 - day variety increased by 2.0BP to 1.453%; the 14 - day variety decreased by 3.3BP to 1.507%; the 1 - month variety decreased by 0.1BP to 1.519% [7] Crude Oil - News shows that there are still differences among parties regarding the "peace plan" for Ukraine, and all parties need time to weigh their interests [8] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2088 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton; the domestic methanol weekly capacity utilization rate is 88.75%, an increase of 1.8%; the downstream total capacity utilization rate is 74.77%, an increase of 0.42% week - on - week; the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples is 1.3635 million tons, a decrease of 115,800 tons week - on - week; the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 373,700 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons week - on - week; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises are 230,700 tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons week - on - week [8] Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1261 yuan/ton, and the price has been relatively stable recently; the weekly output of soda ash is 739,200 tons, a decrease of 1.02% compared with the previous period; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.7073 million tons, a decrease of 0.4% week - on - week; the operating rate of float glass is 75%, a decrease of 0.92 percentage points week - on - week; the average price of national float glass is 1091 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day; the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 63.247 million weight cases, a decrease of 0.18% compared with the previous period [9]

今日周三(11月26日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于51.81一线上方，今日开盘于51.34美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报51.98美元/盎司，上涨1.00%，最高触及52.17美元/盎司，最低下探51.25美元/盎司，目 前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 周二出炉的数据显示，美国9月零售销售增长不及预期，同时生产者价格指数(PPI)同比增长2.7%，与8 月增幅持平。这些数据进一步印证了美国经济放缓的趋势，促使市场重新定价美联储政策路径。 另外美联储继续放出"鸽声"，其中米兰作为降息强力的拥趸者，继续呼吁12月降息，他希望就业数据能 说服美联储的其他人支持降息，失业率的上升是因为货币政策太紧了。他不认为存在通货膨胀的问题， 虽然担心生活成本上升的问题，但美联储的政策需要向前看。他还认为，美联储应该会很快会达到中性 利率。 此前沃勒也表示，就业市场疲弱已足以支持12月份再降息25个基点，而纽约联储主席威廉姆斯上周的类 似表态，也进一步巩固了市场的信心。 【最新伦敦银行情解析】 与此同时，美元指数刷新一周低点，10年期美债收益率在一个月低点附近徘徊。根据芝商所FedWatch 工具，市场目前 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 高盛集团经济学家预计，美联储将在12月降息，使利率降至略高于3%的水平，美国经济放缓的幅度可 能超出预期。 ...

高盛集团经济学家预计美联储将在12月降息，使利率降至略高于3%的水平。该行首席经济学家Jan Hatzius警告称，美国经济放缓的幅度可能超出预期，所以需要美联储更多的降息。他表示，尽管9月非 农报告显示就业市场新增了11.9万个就业岗位，但不断增加的裁员表明劳动力市场的疲软可能正在固 化，从而限制了经济温和增长的影响力。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are fluctuating between $4080 and $4100, influenced by the resumption of the U.S. government and upcoming economic data releases, while U.S.-China rare earth negotiations show positive progress, stabilizing the dollar and limiting gold's upward potential [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Gold prices are maintaining stability around $4087, showing less volatility compared to the previous week [1]. - The end of the government shutdown has not fully restored the statistical system, leading to uncertainty regarding the release of October employment and inflation data [1]. - Market expectations suggest that delayed data may reveal a slowdown in job growth and economic momentum, potentially supporting gold prices [1][2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - Hawkish comments from multiple Federal Reserve officials have created upward pressure on gold prices, making it difficult for gold to break through resistance levels [2]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has decreased to 54%, down from 62.9%, indicating a shift in market sentiment [2]. - Upcoming speeches from Fed officials may further influence gold prices, with a hawkish tone likely to maintain pressure on gold [2][3]. Group 3: Economic Data and Trade Relations - The current uncertainty in the data system leaves the market with a lack of clarity regarding the U.S. economy [3]. - The potential for a U.S.-China rare earth agreement before Thanksgiving has led to a reassessment of trade conditions, slightly boosting the dollar index [2]. - The future trajectory of gold prices will heavily depend on the timing of data recovery and the guidance from Federal Reserve communications [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance continues to dominate the market, with uncertainty surrounding future interest rate cuts impacting gold prices [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Powell announced a reduction in the benchmark overnight lending rate to 3.75%-4.0%, but emphasized that future cuts are not guaranteed and will depend on economic data [1] - Market expectations suggest a 70% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, but this outlook remains complex and subject to change [1][2] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Impact - The ISM manufacturing PMI for October fell to 48.7, below the expected 49.5, raising concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy and providing some support for gold [1] - Upcoming U.S. ADP employment data is anticipated to offer further insights into the Fed's rate cut prospects, with weaker data potentially boosting demand for safe-haven assets like gold [2][3] Group 3: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices are currently under pressure, remaining below the $4000 mark, with short-term support at $3950 [2] - If gold fails to break through the $4000 resistance, it may continue to experience fluctuations, potentially testing lower support levels around $3900 [2] - A successful breakthrough above $4000 could open up upward potential, targeting the $4050-$4060 range, but short-term gains may be limited due to market sentiment and the Fed's hawkish policies [2]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley strategists predict that the US dollar will decline due to larger interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve compared to the European Central Bank [1] - Factors contributing to the dollar's potential decline include a slowing US economy, trade and policy uncertainties, and moderate fiscal support [1] - Global fiscal concerns are easing, which may further impact the dollar negatively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from 招银国际 indicates that the potential U.S. government shutdown may end within two weeks, with a 96.2% market expectation for an interest rate cut in October, although the Federal Reserve may pause rate cuts due to improving employment data and persistent inflation above target levels [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. services PMI showed stagnation in expansion for September, with both production and demand weakening, while employment saw a slight recovery but price indices remained high [1] - The manufacturing PMI indicated a slowing contraction, with weakened demand but a recovery in production and employment, alongside a slight decrease in price indices [1] - The inventory index showed increased contraction as businesses continued to deplete previously accumulated inventories [1] Employment and Government Impact - The government shutdown in October is expected to result in 700,000 federal employees facing unpaid leave, with the White House freezing nearly $30 billion in transfer payments [1] - Each week of the shutdown is projected to reduce GDP by 0.1-0.2 percentage points, with short-term impacts on the market being minimal; however, a shutdown lasting over two weeks may heighten market risk aversion [1] - Data on non-farm employment for the month has not yet been released, but initial unemployment claims across states indicate a decrease in first-time claims by the end of September, suggesting stability in the employment market [1]