美国9月服务业PMI扩张停滞，产需均走弱，就业小幅回升，但物价指数仍高企。制造业PMI收缩幅度 趋缓，需求走弱，生产和就业回升，物价指数小幅下降。库存指数收缩加剧，企业不断消耗提前累积的 库存。 智通财经APP获悉，招银国际发布报告称，预计美国政府停摆可能会在2周内结束，美联储10月会议可 能仍会有9月数据做参考，目前市场对10月降息的预期为96.2%。由于就业数据再次改善而通胀仍显著 高于目标，该行认为联储局或会在10月暂停降息。随着经济持续放缓，美联储可能在12月再次降息。 PMI指向经济放缓，就业底稳定但价格压力仍大，多数受访者提到关税对成本影响及需求不振。10月政 府停摆将导致七十万联邦员工无薪休假，同时白宫冻结近300亿转移支付。每停摆一周预计将拖累GDP 0.1-0.2个百分点，短期停摆对市场影响较小，时间超2周可能推升市场避险情绪。 本月非农业资料尚未公布，但通过各州首次领取失业金人数加总后得出9月底首次失业人数较月初下 降，显示就业市场未进一步走弱。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices closed higher, with absolute price fluctuations intensifying due to geopolitical news. The global oil market is experiencing inventory accumulation, with US EIA commercial crude oil and refined oil inventories increasing, and global refinery profits declining. In the baseline scenario, the crude oil balance sheet will have a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall back to $55 - 60 per barrel. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors and sanctions on supply from Iran and Russia [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily News - International oil prices fell on Thursday as concerns about the US economic outlook outweighed the benefits of the Fed's interest rate cut. The Fed cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points on Wednesday and signaled further cuts this year, but the latest US data showed a slowdown in the economy and an unexpected increase in distillate inventories, which dampened demand expectations. Ecopetrol will complete its 2025 drilling target ahead of schedule and may exceed its production target. The EU is planning to accelerate the phase - out of Russian liquefied natural gas, and analysts expect the global natural gas market to turn into a supply surplus in the second half of next year [5]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending September 12, US crude oil exports increased by 2.532 million barrels per day to 5.277 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.013 million barrels to 13.482 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 9.285 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 2.19%, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.671 million barrels per day, a 1.69% increase from the same period last year, strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 0.504 million barrels to 405.7 million barrels, an increase of 0.12%, and commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 0.579 million barrels per day to 5.692 million barrels per day. From September 5 - 11, the operating rate of major refineries fluctuated slightly, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic production and inventory of gasoline and diesel both increased, the comprehensive profit of major refineries weakened, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased [6]. 3.3 Weekly Viewpoints - This week, oil prices closed higher, with absolute price fluctuations intensifying due to geopolitical news. The US proposed extensive sanctions on Russian energy on Friday. Fundamentally, the global oil market is accumulating inventory, and refinery profits are declining. In the baseline scenario, the crude oil balance sheet will be in surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2026. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall back to $55 - 60 per barrel. Attention should be paid to the impact of US sanctions on Russia and its potential to disrupt Russian supply [7].

9月18日，国内期市有色金属板块多数飘绿。其中，沪铜期货盘中低位震荡运行，主力合约报收于 79620.00元/吨，小幅下跌1.36%。 供应方面，中辉期货指出，8月SMM中国电解铜产量环比下降0.28万吨至117.15万吨，SMM统计9月或 有5家冶炼厂检修，9月国内电解铜产量或将环比下降5.25万吨。 需求方面，华联期货分析称，国内铜市需求端呈现显著的结构性分化特征，传统消费领域需求疲软，空 调零售量虽然保持增长，但9月排产数据下滑；房地产行业缓慢复苏，需求同样疲软。新能源汽车和电 力行业需求强劲，前7个月新能源汽车销量为650万辆，同比增长29%；全国累计发电装机容量同比增长 18.2%，为铜需求提供了有力的支撑。 后市来看，东海期货认为空间不宜看得太高，提防市场买预期卖事实交易，美国经济处于放缓趋势中， 衰退风险不容忽视，制约上方高度。 宏观面，据铜冠金源期货介绍，美联储时隔9个月重启降息但幅度偏弱令前期抢跑预期情绪有所消退， 鲍威尔强调本周会议上并没有对更大幅度的降息形成广泛支持，并强调美联储的政策路径不会被政治力 量所左右依然将保持充分独立性，市场风险偏好回落。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [2] - The primary concern for the Federal Reserve is the weak employment market, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August, significantly below market expectations [2][3] - The inflation rate remains above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.9% year-on-year in August, the largest increase since January [3] Group 2 - Observers note that while the rate cut aligns with expectations, it may not alleviate the Trump administration's dissatisfaction with the Fed, which has been under pressure to lower rates significantly [4] - The Fed's decision-making body indicated that future adjustments to the federal funds rate will depend on ongoing data assessments and changing economic conditions [6] - The median forecast from the Fed's dot plot suggests a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points in the remaining two policy meetings of the year [7] Group 3 - The probability of another 25 basis point rate cut in the October meeting has risen to 87.7%, up from 74.3% the previous day [8] - Analysts believe that while rate cuts may lower borrowing costs and stimulate demand, ongoing issues such as tariffs and immigration policies could negatively impact consumer and business confidence, complicating the Fed's inflation control efforts [9] - Economists suggest that the Fed may adopt a more cautious approach, with fewer than two rate hikes anticipated in 2025 [10]

参考消息网9月16日报道据德国《商报》网站9月13日报道，长期以来，美国经济的强劲表现令经济学家 和分析师感到意外。摩根士丹利首席经济学家塞思·卡彭特认为，现在这种情况正发生改变。卡彭特在 接受《商报》记者采访时说，全球最大经济体的经济"正在明显放缓"。 眼下，美国劳动力市场已经比几个月前明显疲软。新数据显示，2024年3月至2025年3月期间新增就业岗 位仅为最初预期的一半。卡彭特表示，工业生产也显示出初步疲软迹象。 他认为，美国经济目前正面临长期低增长。他明确说："我们预计今年第四季度和明年第一季度的增长 将较为疲软，之后只会缓慢复苏。" 他预计2026年美国经济将仅增长1.25%左右。这远低于2024年的2.8%的增速。经济学家们认为，今年美 国经济增幅达到1.7%是现实的。 数月来，美国进口关税显然正缓慢但稳步地影响物价。根据11日公布的数据，8月物价再次上涨，同比 通胀率为2.9%。而7月为2.7%。 8月，越来越多的证据表明企业正在将关税转嫁给消费者。这导致汽车、汽车零部件、食品和服装价格 上涨，而这些产品大部分是从外国进口到美国的。特朗普的目标是鼓励制造商在美国生产。但分析人士 警告称，即使生产 ...

Group 1: Silver Futures Market - The total silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 6,382 kilograms to 1,246,569 kilograms as of September 12 [1] - The main silver futures contract opened at 9,777 CNY/kg, reached a high of 10,065 CNY/kg, and closed at 10,035 CNY/kg, reflecting a 2.36% increase [1] - The increase in warehouse receipts was primarily driven by the Zhonggongmei Supply Chain, which contributed 6,227 kilograms [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Outlook - The IMF indicated that the U.S. economy is showing signs of pressure, with weakening domestic demand and slowing job growth [2] - High tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are contributing to inflation risks, with the IMF suggesting that the Federal Reserve should be cautious in its monetary policy decisions [2] - The IMF noted that while inflation is gradually approaching the Fed's 2% target, tariff policies are adding upward pressure on prices, potentially affecting household living costs [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy - The IMF believes there is still room for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, but any actions should be taken cautiously [3] - The Fed is advised to closely monitor economic data and adjust policies prudently to balance economic growth and price stability [3] - This "tightrope" policy approach presents challenges for the Fed and adds uncertainty to the future trajectory of the U.S. economy [3]

摘要周四（9月11日）欧盘时段，现货黄金区间震荡，昨日黄金价格微幅收涨，仍立于5日均线上方，日 线RSI位于超买区附近，4小时整体仍维持上行格局，今日黄金价格跌破生命线3638，并处于此处的下 方，并将形态收口，宣告进入调整的状态，蓄势再为重启上涨提供动力。 周四（9月11日）欧盘时段，现货黄金区间震荡，昨日黄金价格微幅收涨，仍立于5日均线上方，日线 RSI位于超买区附近，4小时整体仍维持上行格局，今日黄金价格跌破生命线3638，并处于此处的下 方，并将形态收口，宣告进入调整的状态，蓄势再为重启上涨提供动力。 【要闻速递】 Lombard Odier表示，金价在2025年剩余时间内可能继续获得支撑。外汇策略师Kiran Kowshik和投资策 略主管Luca Bindelli在一份报告中指出，黄金创下历史新高的背景是市场风险加剧的叙事，包括通胀担 忧、政府债务攀升以及美国经济放缓。4月以来投机性仓位减少，加之在供应仍受限的情况下需求上 升，预计将进一步推高金价。 他们补充称，ETF的资金流向一直是黄金的重要影响因素，尤其是在亚洲。如果资金流动动能出现回升 迹象，金价可能进一步上涨。Lombard Odier将 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices continue to hold strong near historical highs, currently trading around $3,645 per ounce, following a record high of $3,674 on September 10, with a year-to-date increase of over 39% [1] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to solidified expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical tensions, reinforcing gold's status as a traditional safe-haven asset [1] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly declined by 0.1% in August, contrasting with economists' expectations of a 0.3% increase, indicating cooling inflation pressures in the U.S. economy [3] - The PPI's year-on-year increase was only 2.6%, below the expected 3.3%, suggesting a slowdown in inflation momentum, particularly driven by falling service prices [3] - The U.S. dollar index showed minimal movement post-PPI data release, closing at 97.83, reflecting a nearly 10% decline year-to-date, influenced by chaotic trade and fiscal policies [3] - The bond market mirrored these sentiments, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to 4.038%, a five-month low, supported by strong demand in Treasury auctions [4] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have intensified, with a 100% probability of at least a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting, and an 8-10% chance of a 50 basis point cut [4] Geopolitical Factors - Escalating geopolitical tensions, including Israeli airstrikes and Poland's downing of a Russian drone, have further supported gold prices as investors seek safety amid rising global uncertainties [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices are showing strong momentum, with potential to test the $3,700 mark, as short-term support is observed around $3,635 [6] - Traders are advised to monitor support levels at $3,630 and $3,623 for potential long positions, while resistance is noted at $3,660 and $3,700 [6]

新冠疫情后美国经济曾经历复苏，不过曾经看似牢不可破的经济前景正在遭遇重创。 随着美联储降息步伐的临近，美国各项经济数据受到密切关注。但分析人士发现，这些数据越来越 难以证明美国经济状况还保持良好。 评级机构惠誉近日上调全球GDP预测，但称美国经济放缓的证据正不断增加。摩根大通CEO戴蒙 （Jamie Dimon）警告称，美国劳工统计局（BLS）对非农就业数据大幅向下修订，确认经济正在走 弱。美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）也在有关最新就业信息的报道中表示，美国经济比想象得更 糟。 此外，近期民意调查显示，经济现状已经使特朗普在选民中获得了较多的负面评价。 劳动力市场持续走弱 对经济的担忧最容易在劳动力市场得到证实。几乎所有迹象都表明，美国劳动力市场前景日益黯 淡，而通胀已开始再次攀升。 根据美国政府9月9日公布的初步基准修订数据，截至今年3月的一年间，非农就业人数被大幅下调 91.1万，相当于平均每月少增加近7.6万个岗位，这是自2000年以来最大幅度的下调。 这一结果不仅远超市场此前预期的68.2万，也意味着就业增长在特朗普关税政策出台前就已开始走 弱。 分行业来看，休闲和酒店业、专业服务业、零售和制造 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lombard Odier indicates that gold prices may continue to receive support for the remainder of 2025 due to increasing market risks, including inflation concerns, rising government debt, and a slowing U.S. economy [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The backdrop for gold reaching historical highs includes heightened market risks, such as inflation worries, increasing government debt, and a decelerating U.S. economy [1] - Since April, speculative positions have decreased, while demand has risen amid constrained supply, which is expected to further drive up gold prices [1] Group 2: Investment Influences - The flow of funds into ETFs has been a significant factor influencing gold prices, particularly in Asia [1] - If there are signs of a rebound in fund flow momentum, gold prices could see further increases [1] Group 3: Price Forecast - Lombard Odier has raised its 12-month gold price target to $3,900 per ounce [1]