（文章来源：新华财经） 高盛集团经济学家预计，美联储将在12月降息，使利率降至略高于3%的水平，美国经济放缓的幅度可 能超出预期。 ...

高盛集团经济学家预计美联储将在12月降息，使利率降至略高于3%的水平。该行首席经济学家Jan Hatzius警告称，美国经济放缓的幅度可能超出预期，所以需要美联储更多的降息。他表示，尽管9月非 农报告显示就业市场新增了11.9万个就业岗位，但不断增加的裁员表明劳动力市场的疲软可能正在固 化，从而限制了经济温和增长的影响力。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are fluctuating between $4080 and $4100, influenced by the resumption of the U.S. government and upcoming economic data releases, while U.S.-China rare earth negotiations show positive progress, stabilizing the dollar and limiting gold's upward potential [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Gold prices are maintaining stability around $4087, showing less volatility compared to the previous week [1]. - The end of the government shutdown has not fully restored the statistical system, leading to uncertainty regarding the release of October employment and inflation data [1]. - Market expectations suggest that delayed data may reveal a slowdown in job growth and economic momentum, potentially supporting gold prices [1][2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - Hawkish comments from multiple Federal Reserve officials have created upward pressure on gold prices, making it difficult for gold to break through resistance levels [2]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has decreased to 54%, down from 62.9%, indicating a shift in market sentiment [2]. - Upcoming speeches from Fed officials may further influence gold prices, with a hawkish tone likely to maintain pressure on gold [2][3]. Group 3: Economic Data and Trade Relations - The current uncertainty in the data system leaves the market with a lack of clarity regarding the U.S. economy [3]. - The potential for a U.S.-China rare earth agreement before Thanksgiving has led to a reassessment of trade conditions, slightly boosting the dollar index [2]. - The future trajectory of gold prices will heavily depend on the timing of data recovery and the guidance from Federal Reserve communications [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance continues to dominate the market, with uncertainty surrounding future interest rate cuts impacting gold prices [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Powell announced a reduction in the benchmark overnight lending rate to 3.75%-4.0%, but emphasized that future cuts are not guaranteed and will depend on economic data [1] - Market expectations suggest a 70% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, but this outlook remains complex and subject to change [1][2] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Impact - The ISM manufacturing PMI for October fell to 48.7, below the expected 49.5, raising concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy and providing some support for gold [1] - Upcoming U.S. ADP employment data is anticipated to offer further insights into the Fed's rate cut prospects, with weaker data potentially boosting demand for safe-haven assets like gold [2][3] Group 3: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices are currently under pressure, remaining below the $4000 mark, with short-term support at $3950 [2] - If gold fails to break through the $4000 resistance, it may continue to experience fluctuations, potentially testing lower support levels around $3900 [2] - A successful breakthrough above $4000 could open up upward potential, targeting the $4050-$4060 range, but short-term gains may be limited due to market sentiment and the Fed's hawkish policies [2]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley strategists predict that the US dollar will decline due to larger interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve compared to the European Central Bank [1] - Factors contributing to the dollar's potential decline include a slowing US economy, trade and policy uncertainties, and moderate fiscal support [1] - Global fiscal concerns are easing, which may further impact the dollar negatively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from 招银国际 indicates that the potential U.S. government shutdown may end within two weeks, with a 96.2% market expectation for an interest rate cut in October, although the Federal Reserve may pause rate cuts due to improving employment data and persistent inflation above target levels [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. services PMI showed stagnation in expansion for September, with both production and demand weakening, while employment saw a slight recovery but price indices remained high [1] - The manufacturing PMI indicated a slowing contraction, with weakened demand but a recovery in production and employment, alongside a slight decrease in price indices [1] - The inventory index showed increased contraction as businesses continued to deplete previously accumulated inventories [1] Employment and Government Impact - The government shutdown in October is expected to result in 700,000 federal employees facing unpaid leave, with the White House freezing nearly $30 billion in transfer payments [1] - Each week of the shutdown is projected to reduce GDP by 0.1-0.2 percentage points, with short-term impacts on the market being minimal; however, a shutdown lasting over two weeks may heighten market risk aversion [1] - Data on non-farm employment for the month has not yet been released, but initial unemployment claims across states indicate a decrease in first-time claims by the end of September, suggesting stability in the employment market [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices closed higher, with absolute price fluctuations intensifying due to geopolitical news. The global oil market is experiencing inventory accumulation, with US EIA commercial crude oil and refined oil inventories increasing, and global refinery profits declining. In the baseline scenario, the crude oil balance sheet will have a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall back to $55 - 60 per barrel. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors and sanctions on supply from Iran and Russia [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily News - International oil prices fell on Thursday as concerns about the US economic outlook outweighed the benefits of the Fed's interest rate cut. The Fed cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points on Wednesday and signaled further cuts this year, but the latest US data showed a slowdown in the economy and an unexpected increase in distillate inventories, which dampened demand expectations. Ecopetrol will complete its 2025 drilling target ahead of schedule and may exceed its production target. The EU is planning to accelerate the phase - out of Russian liquefied natural gas, and analysts expect the global natural gas market to turn into a supply surplus in the second half of next year [5]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending September 12, US crude oil exports increased by 2.532 million barrels per day to 5.277 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.013 million barrels to 13.482 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 9.285 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 2.19%, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.671 million barrels per day, a 1.69% increase from the same period last year, strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 0.504 million barrels to 405.7 million barrels, an increase of 0.12%, and commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 0.579 million barrels per day to 5.692 million barrels per day. From September 5 - 11, the operating rate of major refineries fluctuated slightly, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic production and inventory of gasoline and diesel both increased, the comprehensive profit of major refineries weakened, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased [6]. 3.3 Weekly Viewpoints - This week, oil prices closed higher, with absolute price fluctuations intensifying due to geopolitical news. The US proposed extensive sanctions on Russian energy on Friday. Fundamentally, the global oil market is accumulating inventory, and refinery profits are declining. In the baseline scenario, the crude oil balance sheet will be in surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2026. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall back to $55 - 60 per barrel. Attention should be paid to the impact of US sanctions on Russia and its potential to disrupt Russian supply [7].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic copper futures market is experiencing a slight decline, influenced by macroeconomic factors and mixed demand and supply dynamics [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts after nine months, but the reduction is modest, leading to a decrease in preemptive market expectations [1] - Jerome Powell emphasized that there is no broad support for larger rate cuts and that the Fed's policy will remain independent of political influences, resulting in a decline in market risk appetite [1] Supply Dynamics - In August, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.28 million tons to 1.1715 million tons [1] - It is anticipated that five smelting plants may undergo maintenance in September, potentially leading to a further decrease in domestic electrolytic copper production by 5.25 million tons [1] Demand Dynamics - The domestic copper market is showing significant structural differentiation in demand, with traditional consumption sectors experiencing weakness [1] - Although air conditioning retail sales continue to grow, production data for September has declined [1] - The real estate sector is slowly recovering but still shows weak demand [1] - Strong demand is noted in the new energy vehicle and power sectors, with new energy vehicle sales reaching 6.5 million units in the first seven months, a year-on-year increase of 29% [1] - National cumulative power generation capacity has increased by 18.2% year-on-year, providing strong support for copper demand [1] Market Outlook - Future market expectations should be tempered, as there is a risk of buying on expectations and selling on facts [1] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down, and recession risks cannot be ignored, which may limit upward price potential [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [2] - The primary concern for the Federal Reserve is the weak employment market, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August, significantly below market expectations [2][3] - The inflation rate remains above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.9% year-on-year in August, the largest increase since January [3] Group 2 - Observers note that while the rate cut aligns with expectations, it may not alleviate the Trump administration's dissatisfaction with the Fed, which has been under pressure to lower rates significantly [4] - The Fed's decision-making body indicated that future adjustments to the federal funds rate will depend on ongoing data assessments and changing economic conditions [6] - The median forecast from the Fed's dot plot suggests a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points in the remaining two policy meetings of the year [7] Group 3 - The probability of another 25 basis point rate cut in the October meeting has risen to 87.7%, up from 74.3% the previous day [8] - Analysts believe that while rate cuts may lower borrowing costs and stimulate demand, ongoing issues such as tariffs and immigration policies could negatively impact consumer and business confidence, complicating the Fed's inflation control efforts [9] - Economists suggest that the Fed may adopt a more cautious approach, with fewer than two rate hikes anticipated in 2025 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is showing signs of significant slowdown, with expectations of low growth in the coming quarters, as indicated by various economic indicators and expert analyses [1][2]. Economic Performance - The U.S. labor market has weakened significantly compared to a few months ago, with new job additions expected to be only half of initial projections for the period from March 2024 to March 2025 [1]. - Industrial production is also showing early signs of fatigue, contributing to a forecast of long-term low growth for the U.S. economy [1]. - The anticipated growth rate for the U.S. economy in 2026 is around 1.25%, significantly lower than the projected 2.8% for 2024 [1]. Inflation and Trade Policies - The increase in tariffs under the Trump administration is expected to have a delayed impact on the real economy, similar to the effects observed during his first term [2]. - Rising inflation is anticipated, driven in part by these tariffs, which have already begun to affect consumer prices, particularly in sectors like automotive and food [2][3]. - The inflation rate rose to 2.9% in August, up from 2.7% in July, indicating a trend of increasing prices [2]. Corporate Responses and Labor Market - Companies are increasingly passing on tariff costs to consumers, leading to price hikes in imported goods [3]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates to support the labor market, which is under pressure from economic conditions and the rise of artificial intelligence [3]. - The integration of AI in businesses is leading to job reductions, as companies seek to enhance efficiency, with significant layoffs already reported [3][4]. Future Outlook - There is a growing concern that a recession, exacerbated by AI replacing jobs, could have a more severe impact on the labor market than previous downturns [4][5].