Core Viewpoint - The US stock market has shown resilience and recovery, with major indices approaching historical highs, but the emergence of premium warnings from ETFs raises concerns about future market direction [1][4]. Market Performance - Since the beginning of 2025, the US stock market has experienced significant volatility due to Trump's tariff policies, but positive outcomes from US-China trade talks have boosted market confidence [3]. - The S&P 500 index has recovered its losses from earlier in the year and even approached historical highs in June, showcasing a year-to-date positive return [3]. - The technology sector, particularly driven by advancements in artificial intelligence, has been a key contributor to this rebound, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surging over 4% in a single day [3]. ETF Market Anomalies - Several ETF products, including those from Huaxia and Southern Fund, have issued multiple premium risk warnings, indicating that their market prices exceed actual net values [4]. - The premium rates for ETFs like Huaxia Nasdaq 100 ETF and Penghua Dow Jones ETF have surpassed 6%, reflecting a significant imbalance between supply and demand in the market [4]. - Factors contributing to this phenomenon include high investor demand for US ETFs, QDII quota restrictions, and foreign exchange limitations, leading to increased prices in the secondary market [4]. Earnings and Economic Indicators - The earnings season has shown strong performance, with the S&P 500 index reporting a 12% year-on-year increase in profits, significantly exceeding the market's previous expectations of 4% [5]. - Positive developments from Trump's Middle East visit have also contributed to optimistic market expectations through new orders and investment projects [5]. Risks and Uncertainties - Ongoing uncertainties in tariff negotiations pose a risk to corporate earnings, with potential for renewed market sell-offs if talks break down [6]. - Inflation remains a concern, with consumer price index (CPI) dropping to 2.3% in April, but consumer confidence surveys indicate rising inflation expectations [6]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction is uncertain, as premature rate cuts could reignite inflation, while delayed actions may exacerbate recession risks [6]. Future Outlook - The US stock market may experience short-term fluctuations due to ETF premium issues and concerns over various uncertainties [7]. - Long-term prospects remain positive if global trade relations improve, corporate earnings continue to grow, and the Federal Reserve manages monetary policy effectively [7].