Core Insights - The article highlights the contrasting performance in global capital markets in 2025, with significant gains in AI hardware, precious metals, and geopolitical tensions driving asset prices up, while many retail investors faced losses due to market volatility [1][2] - Investor Achen achieved impressive returns across various asset classes, emphasizing a disciplined and structured asset allocation strategy rather than speculative trading [1][3] Investment Performance - Achen's stock account yielded a 45% return, driven by a focus on the AI hardware supply chain and a strict dynamic rebalancing strategy [3] - The performance of precious metals was influenced by geopolitical events, with silver rising 140% and gold 60%, the latter being a more planned investment based on macroeconomic trends [2][19] - The 15% return from the "Anzheng Changying" fund was viewed as a stabilizing force within Achen's overall portfolio, providing a buffer against market volatility [6][31] Risk Management - Achen's investment philosophy redefines risk, focusing on the ability to preserve wealth against inflation and market downturns rather than merely avoiding losses [6][39] - The structured account system divides roles among different asset classes, with equities as the offensive component, ETFs as a defensive measure, and precious metals providing protection during market turmoil [7][26] Future Strategy - Looking ahead to 2026, Achen plans to adopt a more conservative approach, reducing exposure to precious metals and reallocating profits into lower-volatility assets to enhance portfolio resilience [11][34] - Achen emphasizes the importance of a tiered asset allocation strategy that aligns with individual financial goals and risk tolerance, advocating for a balanced approach to avoid extreme risk exposure [12][40] Conclusion - The narrative underscores the value of stability and long-term survival in investing, contrasting with the prevalent pursuit of high returns in volatile markets [14][44] - Achen's experience serves as a reminder that true investment success lies in maintaining a sustainable strategy that prioritizes wealth preservation over short-term gains [14][46]

Core Insights - The year 2025 is characterized as a "year of rupture," highlighting the deepening cracks in the old order and the emergence of a new paradigm in macroeconomic narratives, emphasizing the search for certainty in an uncertain world [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - In 2025, both risk and safe-haven assets experienced simultaneous growth, indicating a breakdown of the traditional risk-hedge dichotomy [5]. - The A-share market saw a W-shaped bottoming pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising approximately 15% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by around 30% due to confidence rebuilding and policy support [6][10]. - Active equity funds returned over 28%, outperforming the broader market, suggesting a resurgence of active management strategies [6][7]. Group 2: Asset Class Performance - The A-share market displayed a "barbell" structure, with low-valuation dividend stocks and high-growth tech stocks emerging as winners [7]. - In the U.S. stock market, the S&P 500 index rose by about 17% and the Nasdaq by over 22%, driven by AI advancements, despite initial concerns of a market bubble [10][19]. - Gold prices surged over 60%, marking the largest annual increase since 1979, transitioning from a traditional inflation hedge to a credit hedge amid geopolitical tensions [15][17]. Group 3: Geopolitical Impact - Geopolitical issues became a primary driver of asset prices, with events like Trump's tariff policies causing significant market volatility [23]. - The normalization of geopolitical conflicts necessitates a reevaluation of asset allocation strategies, moving away from traditional globalization frameworks [23][24]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The concept of "anti-fragile asset allocation" has emerged as a crucial strategy in response to increasing macroeconomic uncertainties, focusing on building resilient portfolios [26]. - The "safety net, basic plate, growth point" framework proposed by Noah Wealth emphasizes a structured approach to asset allocation, aiming to withstand market volatility [30].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 大部分投资者对股票指数基金都耳熟能详，但是对债券指数基金知之甚少。债券指数基金该如何投资？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，介绍了债券指数基金的投资方法。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 债券 」领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 ◆◆◆ 还有一种情况，最近场内一些美股ETF， 因为被炒作，溢价率一度达到50%。 买基金，会不会遇到卖不出去的情 况呢? 基金分为场外基金和场内基金。 场内基金是在证券账户里买卖交易。例如 ETF 就是场内基金。可以跟买卖股票一样 交易。 ETF有几种情况会导致无法卖出: (1) 遇到大涨大跌， ETF交易价格涨停 或者跌停。 ETF通常为指数基金。 大多数指数,很少达到像个股那样涨停跌 停的波动幅度。 只有在极端行情下可能遇到。 (2) 极端高溢价风险。 投资者如果这时候溢价买入，就会多付出 了50%的成本。 持续高溢价的 ETF,也会被暂停交易,导 致一段时间里可能无法卖出。 场外基金,是按照基金净值申购赎回。只 要场外基金是开放式基金,那投资者提交 赎回申请，就会按照基金净值成交。 ...

Group 1 - The global stock market experienced slight fluctuations this week, with the US market showing a minor decline while the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.26% [3][8]. - The European markets, which had seen significant declines in previous weeks, generally rose this week [5]. - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with minor fluctuations [7]. Group 2 - Recent global market volatility is largely due to uncertainty regarding whether the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates in December [9]. - There are concerns about high valuations in some overseas markets, leading to fears of potential valuation corrections [9][10]. - Opportunities for undervalued overseas market investments may arise in the future, suggesting a need for patience [13]. Group 3 - The South Korean stock market has shown strong performance recently, with significant gains in the fourth quarter, surpassing the Hong Kong market's growth for the year [14][15]. - Both the Hong Kong and South Korean markets are sensitive to global liquidity flows due to a relatively small number of domestic investors [16][17]. - The South Korean market has experienced a nearly 40% decline from its 2021 peak and is currently in a low valuation range, with P/E ratios around 10-12 times and P/B ratios below 1 [22][24]. Group 4 - A global stock market star rating chart indicates that the market was undervalued at 4-5 stars during previous downturns in 2018, 2020, and 2022, and is currently around 2.9 stars [33]. - There are no global stock index funds available in mainland China, but a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" has been introduced to simulate similar effects [35][36]. Group 5 - The newly released sixth edition of "The Long-Term Investment Guide" has topped sales charts and includes updated data and new chapters, emphasizing that stocks are the best long-term investment for wealth accumulation [41][42]. - The book provides insights into the long-term returns of various asset classes, reinforcing the importance of stock allocation in family assets [42][43].

Core Insights - The article explains the concept of premium rate in ETFs, which represents the percentage of "extra money" spent compared to the actual value of the ETF [1] - It highlights the risks associated with high premium rates, including price corrections, liquidity issues, and the impact of U.S. stock market fluctuations [1] - The article provides guidelines for safely investing in U.S. stock ETFs, emphasizing the importance of scale, liquidity, and understanding the reasons behind premium rates [1] Premium Rate Overview - Premium rate is calculated using the formula: (Market Price - Net Asset Value) ÷ Net Asset Value × 100% [1] - Example provided: An ETF with a net value of 1 yuan and a market price of 1.18 yuan results in a premium rate of 18% [1] Risks of High Premium Rates - Price correction risk: Prices may revert to net asset value once market sentiment cools [1] - Liquidity risk: Low trading volumes in niche ETFs can lead to difficulties in selling without incurring losses [1] - Dual volatility risk: U.S. stock ETFs may reflect market expectations that could differ from actual market performance [1] Investment Guidelines - Prioritize ETFs with larger scale and higher trading volumes to ensure liquidity [1] - Analyze the reasons for premium rates to distinguish between genuine market strength and speculative trading [1] - Monitor year-to-date performance to avoid "chasing highs" as U.S. stocks can also experience corrections [1] - Pay attention to the timing of net asset value updates, as domestic trading uses estimated values during U.S. market hours [1] Latest U.S. Stock ETF Premium Rates - The table lists various ETFs along with their scale, year-to-date performance, and premium rates, indicating that the Nasdaq Technology ETF has a premium rate of 18.52% with a scale of 146.50 billion and a year-to-date increase of 40.19% [2] - Other notable ETFs include the Nasdaq 100 ETF with a premium rate of 13.09% and a scale of 42.39 billion, and the Nasdaq ETF with a premium rate of 9.12% and a scale of 185.44 billion [2]

- The report does not contain specific quantitative models or factors for analysis[2][3][4] - The report primarily discusses macroeconomic trends, asset allocation strategies, and market observations without detailing quantitative models or factor construction[2][3][4] - No formulas, construction processes, or backtesting results for quantitative models or factors are provided in the report[2][3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of flexible asset allocation over specialization in a single investment area, particularly in the context of the A-share market, where market conditions can change rapidly [5][9][10]. Group 1: Investment Strategy Evolution - The investment strategy has evolved from focusing solely on A-share funds to diversifying into US ETFs and global markets, indicating a shift towards a more comprehensive asset allocation approach [4][5]. - The current asset allocation structure is described as "all-weather," combining stocks, bonds, and commodities to enhance returns while minimizing volatility and risk [5][10]. Group 2: Path Dependency and Its Risks - Path dependency is identified as a detrimental mindset that can hinder investors' ability to achieve stable returns, with examples from real estate and A-shares illustrating the consequences of this approach [6][7][11]. - The article argues that many investors mistakenly believe that specialization will lead to success, while in reality, a broader framework is necessary to avoid costly mistakes [9][10]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Framework - A scientific asset allocation framework is essential for improving error tolerance, as most investors cannot specialize in a single asset class [10][12]. - The framework should include specific allocations for stocks, bonds, and commodities, and investors should adhere to these rules unless significant issues arise [10][15]. Group 4: Practical Implementation - The article suggests using a three-part method for asset allocation, starting with a risk preference test to determine the appropriate balance between aggressive and conservative investments [13][15]. - Investors are encouraged to take a gradual approach to investing, allowing time to build knowledge and avoid overcommitting based on a false sense of expertise [14][15].

Group 1 - The article discusses various common methods for investing in the US stock market, highlighting the importance of the US market in the global capital landscape [1][2][3][4] - Direct stock purchase allows investors to select individual company stocks based on their analysis of fundamentals and industry trends, providing maximum decision-making autonomy [1] - Investing in ETFs offers a convenient way to track overall market performance or specific sectors, with lower transaction costs and reduced research complexity compared to buying multiple individual stocks [2] - Mutual funds pool investors' money for professional management, allowing for diversified investments across various assets while also considering the associated fees that may impact returns [3] - Options and futures are high-risk, high-reward derivative instruments that can be used for hedging or speculative strategies, requiring a deep understanding of their mechanisms and risk management [4]

Core Insights - The average per capita savings of Chinese residents reached 128,000 yuan by mid-2025, marking an 8.3% increase from the end of 2024, reflecting the resilience of the Chinese economy and highlighting wealth management disparities among different groups [1] Group 1: Regional Disparities - Beijing, Shanghai, and Zhejiang have the highest per capita savings at 286,000 yuan, 269,000 yuan, and 224,000 yuan respectively, driven by developed financial industries and vibrant private economies [2] - Guangdong, despite having the largest economic output, ranks fifth with a per capita savings of 147,000 yuan, attributed to a large number of migrant workers [2] - Central and western provinces generally fall below the national average, with Gansu and Guizhou showing per capita savings in the range of 70,000 to 80,000 yuan, indicating significant regional development imbalances [2] Group 2: Generational Differences - The 35-45 age group has an average savings of 182,000 yuan, significantly higher than other age groups, aligning with the lifecycle theory as they face multiple financial responsibilities [5] - The 90s generation has an average savings of 93,000 yuan, with 20% of young individuals having savings below 10,000 yuan, influenced by changing consumption patterns and mortgage pressures [5] - Individuals aged 60 and above have an average savings of 156,000 yuan, showing a growing awareness of retirement savings [5] Group 3: Occupational Disparities - Financial industry workers lead with an average savings of 231,000 yuan, followed by IT service professionals at 198,000 yuan, while traditional manufacturing workers average 82,000 yuan [8] - Service industry workers generally have savings around 60,000 yuan, reflecting income disparities driven by industrial structure upgrades and skill premium effects [8] - The rise of freelancers during the pandemic shows a split, with about 35% achieving excess savings, while nearly half have savings below 50,000 yuan [8] Group 4: Wealth Management Trends - Although demand deposits still account for 55% of total savings, the proportion of large time deposits and structured deposits has increased by 6 percentage points, indicating a growing awareness of wealth management [10] - 67% of families have adopted the "4321" asset allocation rule, a 22 percentage point increase since 2020, although 38% still keep over 70% of their assets in banks, reflecting concerns about market volatility [10] Group 5: Financial Health Assessment - Economists argue that measuring financial health solely by savings amounts is limited, as property net worth constitutes 62% of total household assets, with debt levels showing a "high in the east, low in the west" pattern [12] - Shanghai households have an average debt ratio of 56%, while central and western households have lower debt ratios but weaker risk management capabilities [12] - A new assessment standard suggesting "liquid assets covering six months of expenses" is recommended for a more accurate reflection of financial resilience [12] Group 6: Wealth Management Recommendations - For families below the savings benchmark, experts suggest a tiered improvement plan, including establishing an emergency fund covering 3-6 months of expenses, prioritizing debt repayment for high-interest loans, diversifying income sources, and utilizing AI investment tools for dynamic asset management [14] Group 7: Emerging Savings Trends - Approximately 27% of the 90s generation employs "goal-based saving," setting up dedicated accounts for specific objectives like home purchases or studying abroad [16] - 45% of middle-class families have allocated assets across borders, with Hong Kong insurance and US ETF investments becoming popular choices, indicating a shift towards global asset allocation [16] - The data on savings serves as both an economic indicator and a reflection of social development, with future policy discussions likely focusing on reducing savings disparities through tax reforms and social security improvements [16]

Core Viewpoint - The US stock market has shown resilience and recovery, with major indices approaching historical highs, but the emergence of premium warnings from ETFs raises concerns about future market direction [1][4]. Market Performance - Since the beginning of 2025, the US stock market has experienced significant volatility due to Trump's tariff policies, but positive outcomes from US-China trade talks have boosted market confidence [3]. - The S&P 500 index has recovered its losses from earlier in the year and even approached historical highs in June, showcasing a year-to-date positive return [3]. - The technology sector, particularly driven by advancements in artificial intelligence, has been a key contributor to this rebound, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surging over 4% in a single day [3]. ETF Market Anomalies - Several ETF products, including those from Huaxia and Southern Fund, have issued multiple premium risk warnings, indicating that their market prices exceed actual net values [4]. - The premium rates for ETFs like Huaxia Nasdaq 100 ETF and Penghua Dow Jones ETF have surpassed 6%, reflecting a significant imbalance between supply and demand in the market [4]. - Factors contributing to this phenomenon include high investor demand for US ETFs, QDII quota restrictions, and foreign exchange limitations, leading to increased prices in the secondary market [4]. Earnings and Economic Indicators - The earnings season has shown strong performance, with the S&P 500 index reporting a 12% year-on-year increase in profits, significantly exceeding the market's previous expectations of 4% [5]. - Positive developments from Trump's Middle East visit have also contributed to optimistic market expectations through new orders and investment projects [5]. Risks and Uncertainties - Ongoing uncertainties in tariff negotiations pose a risk to corporate earnings, with potential for renewed market sell-offs if talks break down [6]. - Inflation remains a concern, with consumer price index (CPI) dropping to 2.3% in April, but consumer confidence surveys indicate rising inflation expectations [6]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction is uncertain, as premature rate cuts could reignite inflation, while delayed actions may exacerbate recession risks [6]. Future Outlook - The US stock market may experience short-term fluctuations due to ETF premium issues and concerns over various uncertainties [7]. - Long-term prospects remain positive if global trade relations improve, corporate earnings continue to grow, and the Federal Reserve manages monetary policy effectively [7].