Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "粕类日报 2025 年 12 月 25 日" [1] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] - Contact: chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 2: Market Review - US soybean market was closed for the holiday, but it had a significant increase the previous day. The current price of US soybeans still lacks an advantage. The domestic soybean meal market was under pressure earlier but rose rapidly due to market rumors. Rapeseed meal generally followed the trend of soybean meal, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal slightly widened. The inter - month spread of soybean meal increased, while that of rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [3]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - The overall supply - demand of the US soybean market is still relatively loose, and there is obvious downward pressure on prices. South American supply factors are increasing. Brazil's new - crop sowing progress has accelerated but is still at a low level compared to the same period in history. Institutions generally expect a bumper harvest in Brazil, and exports are expected to increase, but it depends on actual yields. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and its crushing and exports have increased significantly [4]. Domestic Market - The domestic spot market shows a relatively loose supply - demand situation. Oil mills' operating rates remain high, supply is sufficient, and inventory is at a high level. Market transactions have decreased recently, and there is still uncertainty about long - term supply. As of December 19, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1306 million tons, the operating rate was 58.61%, soybean inventory was 7.7236 million tons (a 3.35% increase from the previous week and a 24.85% increase year - on - year), and soybean meal inventory was 1.1371 million tons (a 3.66% increase from the previous week and a 95.11% increase year - on - year). Rapeseed meal demand has gradually weakened, oil mill operations have basically stopped, rapeseed supply is low, and there is still supply pressure [6]. Group 4: Logic Analysis - There is still downward pressure on US soybeans. Short - term increases are mainly a reaction to previous declines. If demand continues to lack support, the market may face more pressure. Brazil's short - term weather is good, and if it continues, the pressure of a bumper harvest may be more obvious. The international soybean market is still in a relatively loose supply - demand situation, and prices are expected to be under pressure. South American quotes are relatively firm, and domestic soybean meal supply may decrease in the future, providing some support for the spot market. In the long - term, price pressure still exists. Rapeseed meal demand is average, and its downward space is limited due to the improvement of soybean meal spot. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to narrow. The inter - month spread of soybean meal shows a rebound but may decline in the future, while that of rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly and is still under pressure [7]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Make a small - scale long - position layout. - Arbitrage: Focus on narrowing the MRM spread. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [8]