Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of the international soybean market is relatively loose, and there is still price pressure. The price of Brazilian soybeans is expected to face pressure in the medium term. [4][6] - The domestic spot supply is tightening, and the market demand remains good. The price of rapeseed meal is expected to be volatile, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen. [7][8] - It is recommended to adopt a short - term bearish strategy for single - side trading, wait and see for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide straddles for options. [9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Quotes - Futures prices: The soybean meal futures prices for contracts 01, 05, and 09 closed at 2908, 2766, and 2857 respectively, with changes of - 8, - 3, and - 11. The rapeseed meal futures prices for contracts 01, 05, and 09 closed at 2225, 2271, and 2293 respectively, with changes of - 8, 2, and - 9. [3] - Spot basis: The spot basis of soybean meal in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao is 400, 310, 300, and 310 respectively. The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi is 259, 159, and 149 respectively. [3] - Spreads: The 15 - spread of soybean meal is 142, down 5 from yesterday; the 59 - spread is - 91, up 8; the 91 - spread is - 51, down 3. The 15 - spread of rapeseed meal is - 46, down 10; the 59 - spread is - 22, up 11; the 91 - spread is 68, down 1. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 536, up 27 from yesterday. [3] 2. Fundamentals - International market: The U.S. soybean carry - over inventory is raised to 350 million bushels, higher than the market estimate. The overall supply - demand of U.S. soybeans is relatively loose. Brazilian new - crop soybeans are expected to be in a good harvest, and the export volume is expected to increase. The old - crop soybeans in Brazil and Argentina have good export and crushing performance. [4] - Domestic market: The domestic soybean supply is tightening, the oil mill operating rate is increasing but the quantity is decreasing, the提货量 is slightly decreasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The demand for rapeseed meal is weakening, the oil mill operation is almost stagnant, the rapeseed supply is low, and the rapeseed meal inventory is at a high level. [7] 3. Logical Analysis - U.S. soybeans: The inventory pressure is large, but the demand improvement may slow down the downward speed. [8] - Brazilian soybeans: The weather is good, the yield is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure. [8] - Argentine soybeans: Affected by dry weather, the price is relatively strong, but the driving effect may be limited. [8] - Domestic soybeans: The future soybean arrivals will decrease, the supply is uncertain, the spot price has support, but the upward space is limited. [8] - Rapeseed meal: The import price is high, and the pressure may increase after the supply of Canadian rapeseed increases. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen. [8] 4. Trading Strategies - Single - side: Adopt a bearish strategy. [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see. [9] - Options: Sell wide straddles. [9] 5. Soybean Pressing Profits - The pressing profits from Brazilian soybeans vary by shipping date. For example, the March shipment has a盘面压榨利润 of 143.23 and a现货压榨利润 of 219.73, with a profit increase of 35.37 compared to yesterday. [10]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "粕类日报 2025 年 12 月 25 日" [1] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] - Contact: chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 2: Market Review - US soybean market was closed for the holiday, but it had a significant increase the previous day. The current price of US soybeans still lacks an advantage. The domestic soybean meal market was under pressure earlier but rose rapidly due to market rumors. Rapeseed meal generally followed the trend of soybean meal, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal slightly widened. The inter - month spread of soybean meal increased, while that of rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [3]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - The overall supply - demand of the US soybean market is still relatively loose, and there is obvious downward pressure on prices. South American supply factors are increasing. Brazil's new - crop sowing progress has accelerated but is still at a low level compared to the same period in history. Institutions generally expect a bumper harvest in Brazil, and exports are expected to increase, but it depends on actual yields. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and its crushing and exports have increased significantly [4]. Domestic Market - The domestic spot market shows a relatively loose supply - demand situation. Oil mills' operating rates remain high, supply is sufficient, and inventory is at a high level. Market transactions have decreased recently, and there is still uncertainty about long - term supply. As of December 19, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1306 million tons, the operating rate was 58.61%, soybean inventory was 7.7236 million tons (a 3.35% increase from the previous week and a 24.85% increase year - on - year), and soybean meal inventory was 1.1371 million tons (a 3.66% increase from the previous week and a 95.11% increase year - on - year). Rapeseed meal demand has gradually weakened, oil mill operations have basically stopped, rapeseed supply is low, and there is still supply pressure [6]. Group 4: Logic Analysis - There is still downward pressure on US soybeans. Short - term increases are mainly a reaction to previous declines. If demand continues to lack support, the market may face more pressure. Brazil's short - term weather is good, and if it continues, the pressure of a bumper harvest may be more obvious. The international soybean market is still in a relatively loose supply - demand situation, and prices are expected to be under pressure. South American quotes are relatively firm, and domestic soybean meal supply may decrease in the future, providing some support for the spot market. In the long - term, price pressure still exists. Rapeseed meal demand is average, and its downward space is limited due to the improvement of soybean meal spot. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to narrow. The inter - month spread of soybean meal shows a rebound but may decline in the future, while that of rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly and is still under pressure [7]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Make a small - scale long - position layout. - Arbitrage: Focus on narrowing the MRM spread. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [8]