Report Title - "外强内弱，粕类区间震荡等待指引" [1][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The meal market shows a pattern of strong external and weak internal performance, with meal prices oscillating within a range and awaiting further guidance [1][47] Summary by Section I. China-US Trade Negotiations and US Soybean Growing Weather - China-US trade negotiations have made some progress, with China relaxing rare earth export controls to the US in June and the US canceling export controls on semiconductor software and jet engines to China in July, but future negotiations remain uncertain [8][9] - Trump's global tariff war is bound to be full of twists and turns. The US reached trade agreements with Vietnam and Cambodia in July, and the tariff agreements with Japan, South Korea, and the EU are more important. July 9 is the deadline for the US to suspend the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" [10] - The growing weather for US soybeans is currently favorable, with the new - season yield per unit area remaining at a relatively high level, but there is still a possibility of weather - related speculation in the future [11] II. Analysis of the Supply and Demand Fundamentals of Meal - The concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans in China is suppressing the futures and spot prices of beans. The peak of imported soybean arrivals has been postponed to June, with an overall increase. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains high, and the output of soybean meal in June has increased significantly year - on - year. The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in oil mills has continued to rise, while the downstream procurement has slightly recovered at low levels and the提货量 has declined from high levels [15][16][17] - With the listing of domestic rapeseed, the short - term supply of rapeseed meal has become abundant. The expected increase in imported rapeseed, the concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed, and the concentrated release of aquaculture demand have contributed to this situation. Although the arrival volume of imported rapeseed in July was lower than expected and the import cost fluctuated slightly, the rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills decreased slightly, and the rapeseed inventory of oil mills rebounded from a low level while the rapeseed meal inventory remained low [31][32][34] - Rapeseed meal is in the peak season of supply and demand, showing relative stability and balance. Imported Brazilian soybeans will lead to inventory accumulation from June to July and inventory reduction from August to September. The 2509 contract will mainly oscillate within a range as the futures and spot prices converge, and the soybean meal 2601 contract will generally oscillate strongly while rapeseed meal is relatively weak [46] III. Short - Term Range Oscillation of Meal Awaiting Guidance - Uncertainties in China - US trade negotiations and US soybean growing weather, the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans leading to a weak current situation and strong expectations in China, and the relatively stable supply and demand of rapeseed meal, which acts as a price stabilizer [47] - The key future variables include weather - related speculation on the new - season US soybeans, the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations, and changes in domestic demand [47] - The bullish factors are the speculation on the new - season US soybean weather and the uncertainty of China - US tariff negotiations, while the bearish factors are the short - term inventory accumulation pressure due to the concentrated arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, the expected abundant short - term supply of domestic rapeseed meal after the listing of domestic rapeseed, and the current spot pressure on soybean meal during the off - season of demand [49]