1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, the investment view for both soybean meal and rapeseed meal is "oscillating" [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is complex, influenced by multiple factors such as US soybean production, domestic inventory, import policies, and feed demand. The market is expected to be in an oscillating state, and the key to future trends lies in Sino - US policies [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The USDA August report adjusted the US soybean yield and planting area, resulting in a tight supply - demand balance sheet for new - crop US soybeans in 2025/26. The domestic soybean arrival volume in September is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and soybean meal is in a stockpiling cycle. The supply - demand gap for soybean meal in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policies. The supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to decrease under Sino - Canadian trade policies, while the opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [3]. - **Demand**: Short - term high inventories of pigs and poultry support feed demand, but policy guidance to control pig inventory and weight may affect future pig supply. Soybean meal has high cost - effectiveness and high pick - up volume, and the peak season of aquaculture supports rapeseed meal demand. However, wheat substitution for corn in some areas reduces protein consumption, and downstream transactions of soybean and rapeseed meal are cautious this week [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, soybean meal inventory is rising (lower than the same period last year but still in a stockpiling cycle), and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal are increasing. Domestic rapeseed inventory has declined to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory is being depleted but remains at a high level compared to the same period in previous years [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis is weak [3]. - **Profit**: Brazilian soybean crushing profit has deteriorated, while Canadian rapeseed crushing profit is good [3]. - **Valuation**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal on the futures market are currently at a neutral valuation position [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: Attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US negotiations on soybeans. China has started to release imported soybeans from reserves, and is expected to open up Australian rapeseed imports and actively apply for relevant GMOs [3]. - **Investment View**: For soybean meal, the M01 contract was weak this week due to Sino - US peace - talk expectations and reserve releases, but the tight supply - demand situation of US soybeans supports the CBOT US soybean futures market. The spread between US soybeans and Brazilian soybeans' CNF premiums has narrowed to a normal range, and it is expected that the decline of Brazilian soybeans' CNF premiums will be limited. With the support of import costs, the downside space of M01 is expected to be limited, and it is expected to move in an oscillating manner in the short term. The basis and spread trends depend on Sino - US policies. For rapeseed meal, with the absence of Canadian supply, domestic inventory is expected to decrease, but the opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the supply. The RM01 contract is a off - season contract, and it is expected that the supply - demand contradiction will not be significant, and it will generally follow the oscillation of soybean meal, with attention paid to policy changes [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating, and arbitrage is advised to wait and see. Risks to watch include policies and weather [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of Meal Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Inventory - to - Consumption Ratios**: In August 2025, the inventory - to - consumption ratios of US soybeans and global soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased. The report also shows the inventory - to - consumption ratios of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans, as well as global and Canadian rapeseed over the years [35][36][45]. - **US Soybean Production and Sales**: The sowing rate and excellent - good rate of US soybeans are presented. The domestic crushing profit of US soybeans is rising, the NOPA soybean crushing volume and USDA US soybean monthly crushing volume data are provided, and this week's US soybean exports declined [47][51][63]. - **Import and Cost**: The CNF premium of soybeans, the import cost of Canadian rapeseed, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real are shown. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans has deteriorated, while that of Canadian rapeseed is good [70][74][77]. - **Domestic Inventory and Transaction**: Domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, soybean meal is in a stockpiling cycle but lower than last year, and the inventory days of feed enterprises are increasing. The inventory of domestic imported rapeseed has declined, and rapeseed meal inventory is being depleted. The transaction volume of soybean meal is normal, and the pick - up volume is high, while the transaction volume of rapeseed meal is also presented [81][102][109]. - **Feed and Livestock Farming**: The monthly output of feed is shown, as well as the breeding profits and related data of pigs, broilers, and laying hens. Pig prices are falling [116][118][122].

Report Title - "外强内弱，粕类区间震荡等待指引" [1][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The meal market shows a pattern of strong external and weak internal performance, with meal prices oscillating within a range and awaiting further guidance [1][47] Summary by Section I. China-US Trade Negotiations and US Soybean Growing Weather - China-US trade negotiations have made some progress, with China relaxing rare earth export controls to the US in June and the US canceling export controls on semiconductor software and jet engines to China in July, but future negotiations remain uncertain [8][9] - Trump's global tariff war is bound to be full of twists and turns. The US reached trade agreements with Vietnam and Cambodia in July, and the tariff agreements with Japan, South Korea, and the EU are more important. July 9 is the deadline for the US to suspend the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" [10] - The growing weather for US soybeans is currently favorable, with the new - season yield per unit area remaining at a relatively high level, but there is still a possibility of weather - related speculation in the future [11] II. Analysis of the Supply and Demand Fundamentals of Meal - The concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans in China is suppressing the futures and spot prices of beans. The peak of imported soybean arrivals has been postponed to June, with an overall increase. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains high, and the output of soybean meal in June has increased significantly year - on - year. The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in oil mills has continued to rise, while the downstream procurement has slightly recovered at low levels and the提货量 has declined from high levels [15][16][17] - With the listing of domestic rapeseed, the short - term supply of rapeseed meal has become abundant. The expected increase in imported rapeseed, the concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed, and the concentrated release of aquaculture demand have contributed to this situation. Although the arrival volume of imported rapeseed in July was lower than expected and the import cost fluctuated slightly, the rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills decreased slightly, and the rapeseed inventory of oil mills rebounded from a low level while the rapeseed meal inventory remained low [31][32][34] - Rapeseed meal is in the peak season of supply and demand, showing relative stability and balance. Imported Brazilian soybeans will lead to inventory accumulation from June to July and inventory reduction from August to September. The 2509 contract will mainly oscillate within a range as the futures and spot prices converge, and the soybean meal 2601 contract will generally oscillate strongly while rapeseed meal is relatively weak [46] III. Short - Term Range Oscillation of Meal Awaiting Guidance - Uncertainties in China - US trade negotiations and US soybean growing weather, the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans leading to a weak current situation and strong expectations in China, and the relatively stable supply and demand of rapeseed meal, which acts as a price stabilizer [47] - The key future variables include weather - related speculation on the new - season US soybeans, the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations, and changes in domestic demand [47] - The bullish factors are the speculation on the new - season US soybean weather and the uncertainty of China - US tariff negotiations, while the bearish factors are the short - term inventory accumulation pressure due to the concentrated arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, the expected abundant short - term supply of domestic rapeseed meal after the listing of domestic rapeseed, and the current spot pressure on soybean meal during the off - season of demand [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market shows a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, and the meal products are in a relatively strong oscillation [1]. - In the short - term, the meal products will return to oscillation, and in the medium - term, they will oscillate with an upward tendency [3][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sino - US Tariff Negotiation Settled in the Short - Term - The Sino - US tariff war has returned to the previous state. On March 3, 2025, the US raised additional tariffs on Chinese goods from 10% to 20%, and China imposed additional tariffs on some US - originated imported goods starting from March 10, 2025. After the agreement, the US tariff on China is 30%, and China's tariff on the US is 10% for all and 20% - 25% for some [8][9]. - The US has negotiated with other countries first. It completed negotiations with the UK first, imposed a 25% tariff on key Japanese auto parts on May 3, and extended the tariff negotiation deadline with the EU to July 9 [10]. - There are still uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff negotiation after 90 days [8]. 3.2 Analysis of the Supply - Demand Fundamentals of Meal Products 3.2.1 Brazilian Soybeans' Concentrated Arrival Pressures the Market - The peak of imported soybeans' arrival is postponed to June, with an overall increase. The soybean processing volume of oil mills has rebounded to a high level, and the soybean inventory of oil mills continues to rise while the soybean meal inventory remains low [13][14][18]. - The production of soybean meal in April decreased year - on - year. The futures of soybean meal oscillated strongly, while the spot was relatively weak after May Day, changing from premium to discount. The downstream procurement in China has rebounded from a low level, and the提货 volume remains good [14][16][20]. 3.2.2 Whether the Domestic Demand for Soybean Meal Can Be Stable - The prices of live pigs and piglets fluctuated slightly. The inventory of live pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The domestic pig - raising profit fluctuated slightly [22][24][26]. 3.2.3 Rapeseed Meal Enters a Pattern of Strong Supply and Demand - The expected import of rapeseed is increasing, and domestic rapeseed is about to be listed. The demand for aquatic products is being released intensively [28]. - The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in May was lower than expected, and the import cost oscillated strongly. The rapeseed processing volume of oil mills has rebounded to a relatively high level, the rapeseed inventory of oil mills continues to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory has rebounded from a low level [29][31][33]. 3.3 Short - Term Return to Oscillation, Medium - Term Oscillation with an Upward Tendency - With the short - term settlement of the Sino - US tariff negotiation, soybeans will return to oscillation in the short - term, waiting for new guidance. Imported soybeans will arrive in a concentrated manner, and oil mills' soybean meal will enter an inventory accumulation cycle in June [35]. - The future key variables include the planting area and weather speculation of new - season US soybeans, the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff negotiation, and the change in domestic demand [35]. - The bullish factors are the weather speculation of new - season US soybeans and the uncertainty of the Sino - US tariff negotiation. The bearish factors are the concentrated clearance and arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans and the current pressure on the soybean meal spot in the off - season of demand [37]. - The planting area of new - season US soybeans has decreased by 3.6%, basically in line with expectations, and the planting of new - season US soybeans has started smoothly, but there are many uncertainties in the future [41].