Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - For PVC, the expectation of eliminating old devices continues to boost market sentiment, and the futures price continues to be strong. However, the supply - side pressure is large, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The rise is mainly driven by sentiment, and policy progress needs to be monitored [3] - For烧碱, the market sentiment is boosted by the assessment of old devices and the low price of liquid chlorine, and the futures price is strong. The supply is high with new production expected, the demand has rigid support from alumina but non - aluminum demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is expected to increase [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5238 yuan/ton (+87), the East China basis is - 168 yuan/ton (-67), and the South China basis is - 163 yuan/ton (-32) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method quotation is 5070 yuan/ton (+20), and the South China calcium carbide method quotation is 5075 yuan/ton (+55) [1] - Upstream production profit: The blue carbon price is 535 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2805 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 87 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide method gross profit is - 315 yuan/ton (+130), the PVC ethylene method gross profit is - 595 yuan/ton (+26), and the PVC export profit is - 15.7 dollars/ton (+0.6) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - plant inventory is 36.8 tons (-1.4), the social inventory is 42.7 tons (+1.6), the calcium carbide method operation rate is 79.21% (+1.69%), the ethylene method operation rate is 66.95% (-1.36%), and the overall operation rate is 75.81% (+0.84%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 69.6 tons (+0.6) [1] 烧碱 - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2675 yuan/ton (+31), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 81 yuan/ton (-31) [1] - Spot price: The quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton (+0), and the quotation of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1340 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1603 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 579.5 yuan/ton (+120.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 652.53 yuan/ton (+60.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1719.84 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 40.84 tons (+2.45), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.31 tons (-0.09), and the caustic soda operation rate is 84.00% (+1.40%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation: The alumina operation rate is 83.61% (+0.33%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 58.89% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 84.97% (+0.42%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The expectation of eliminating old PVC devices boosts market sentiment, and the futures price is strong. The supply - side pressure is large due to high operation and new production, the demand is weak with low domestic demand and neutral exports, and the inventory is accumulating. The rise is sentiment - driven [3] 烧碱 - The assessment of old devices and the low price of liquid chlorine boost market sentiment, and the futures price is strong. The supply is high with new production expected, the demand has rigid support from alumina but non - aluminum demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is expected to increase [3] Strategies PVC - Unilateral: Cautiously go long for hedging as the macro - sentiment drives the futures price to be strong [4] - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads when the V09 - 01 spread is high [4] 烧碱 - Unilateral: Cautiously go long for hedging. The low price of liquid chlorine strengthens cost support, and the futures price is expected to be strong due to the expectation of eliminating old devices and macro - sentiment [5]