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石化行业周报:美原油汽油双累库,石化板块相对表现偏弱-20250818
China Post Securities· 2025-08-18 07:21
Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market, maintained [1] Core Views - Focus: OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, leading to a rise in US crude oil and gasoline inventories, resulting in a decline in energy prices and weaker performance in the petrochemical sector [2] - Review: The petrochemical index closed at 2283.32 points, down 0.05% from the previous week, with oilfield services showing the best performance within the sector, increasing by 3.77% [3][5] - Crude Oil: Energy prices are declining, with US crude oil inventories rising and mixed performance in refined oil inventories [6][11] - Polyester: Prices of polyester filament are stable with an upward trend, and inventory days for Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines are decreasing, indicating an increase in operating rates [15][21] - Olefins: Sample prices for polyolefins remain stable, while inventories are increasing [22][25] Summary by Sections Crude Oil - Energy prices are on a downward trend, with Brent crude futures and TTF natural gas futures closing at $66.33 per barrel and €30.92 per megawatt-hour, down 0.8% and 4.0% respectively from the previous week [8] - US crude oil and petroleum product inventories (excluding strategic reserves) stand at 1,267,347 thousand barrels, an increase of 7,522 thousand barrels from the previous period [12] Polyester - The prices of polyester filament (POY, DTY, FDY) are reported at 6,750, 7,950, and 7,100 yuan per ton, with price differentials increasing by 184, 154, and 254 yuan per ton respectively compared to last week [16] - Inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have decreased, with FDY, DTY, and POY inventory days at 23.3, 28.2, and 16.1 days respectively [21] Olefins - Sample prices for polyethylene and polypropylene are reported at 7,830 and 8,050 yuan per ton, with a slight increase of 0.51% and no change respectively from the previous week [25] - The total petrochemical inventory for polyolefins is 770,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous week [25]