25Q2 利润同环比下滑，关注石化"反内卷" 2025 年 08 月 22 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 8 月 21 日，公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。2025 年上半年， 公司实现营业收入 14090.5 亿元，同比下降 10.6%；实现归母净利润 214.8 亿 元，同比下降 39.8%；实现扣非归母净利润 212.2 亿元，同比下降 40.4%。 ➢ 25Q2 归母净利润同环比下滑，公司计划分红 49.7%，A/H 股息率为 1.5%/2.0%。25Q2，公司实现营业收入 6737.0 亿元，同比下降 14.3%、环比 下降 8.4%；实现归母净利润 82.2 亿元，同比下降 52.7%、环比下降 38.0%；实 现扣非归母净利润 79.9 亿元，同比下降 54.1%、环比下降 39.6%，利润下滑主 因原油和产品价格和价差下滑、库存减利。公司拟派发现金股利 0.088 元/股， 合计 106.7 亿元，分红率 49.7%，以 2025 年 8 月 21 日收盘价计算，A 股息率 为 1.5%，H 股股息率为 2.0%。 ➢ 勘探及开发：天然气价稳量增，原油价跌量稳。25H1，公司油气当量产量 26 ...

2 ◼ 焦点：OPEC+9月增产54.7万桶/日，美原油、汽油双累库，能源价格下行，石化板块表现相对弱势。 持续关注反内卷进展，石化行业中老旧装置淘汰退出和更新改造的进展。 ◼ 回顾：本周申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数相对较弱，报收2283.32点，较上周下跌0.05%。 而中信三级行业指数表现来看，本周油田服务在石油石化中表现最佳，涨幅3.77%。 ◼ 原油：能源价格下行。美原油库存上涨，美成品油库存表现分化 ◼ 聚酯：涤纶长丝价格稳中有涨，价差上涨。江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数下降，织机开工率上涨。 ◼ 烯烃：样本聚烯烃现货价格平稳，库存上涨 ◼ 标的： ➢ 上游：地缘若未来再次给出原油溢价，则利好上游标的。 ➢ 炼化：若需求好转，优供给、淘汰落后产能有所进展，则利好中游炼化。 ◼ 风险提示：油价剧烈波动、地缘风险、欧美通胀反复、欧美经济波动、行业政策变化、项目投产进度变 化、需求变化、其他等。 本周石化相对较弱，石油石化指数下跌0.05% 证券研究报告 石化行业周报：美原油汽油双累库，石化板块 相对表现偏弱 行业投资评级：强大于市|维持 中邮证券研究所石化团队 分析师:张津圣 SAC 登记编号:S13 ...

石化行业框架和反内卷专题 20250806 摘要 全球原油需求增长结构变化，中国需求下降，新兴经济体成主要拉动力 量，但全球原油需求增长仍维持在 70-80 万桶/天。 美国页岩油产量受资本开支纪律影响，4 月关税战后大幅下修资本开支 预期，导致今年美国页岩油产量几乎零增，目前产量约为 1,350 万桶/天， 或为阶段性峰值。 OPEC+通过主动调控供给稳定市场，沙特在减产中发挥核心作用，但 2024 年中期曾计划增产，直至 2025 年 4 月才落地，并加速增产。 短期内，原油市场面临下行风险，包括季节性需求回落、OPEC 逐步增 产以及中国和印度囤库完成，可能导致油价跌至 70 美元以下。 中石油被视为红利属性最强标的，天然气板块成本与油价相关，业绩相 对平稳，预计今年利润水平可达 1,400-1,500 亿元。 石化行业面临供给压力和原料压力，炼油能力过剩，成品油需求衰减， 乙烯自给率上升，预计"十五五"规划将调整政策方向。 恒力石化和荣盛石化是炼油弹性最大的标的，估值处于低位，盈利稳定， 若政策落地，有望通过 EPS 拉动实现业绩向上弹性。 Q&A 石油定价的基本逻辑是什么？ 石油定价的基本逻辑主要基 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, particularly in the refining, olefins, and polyester sectors, suggesting potential investment opportunities in leading companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec [4][5]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is currently facing overcapacity in certain areas, with a significant portion of refining capacity being outdated. The report anticipates that accelerating the retirement of these old facilities could lead to a recovery in refining profitability [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of controlling new capacity additions and optimizing existing capacity to mitigate excessive competition, aligning with the government's "anti-involution" policies aimed at improving product quality and phasing out inefficient production [5][11]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $68.44 per barrel, down 1.21% from the previous week, while WTI futures fell 3.24% to $65.16 per barrel. The average prices for the week were $68.79 and $65.79, respectively [18]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.17 million barrels to 419 million barrels, which is 9% lower than the five-year average for this time of year [20]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased by 2 to 542, down 47 year-on-year, indicating a potential tightening in supply [31]. Refining Sector - The report notes that the refining sector is experiencing a significant oversupply, with nearly half of the capacity being outdated. The report suggests focusing on leading refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical for potential investment [4][5]. - The Singapore refining margin increased to $15.31 per barrel, indicating some improvement in refining profitability despite the overall low profit levels [4]. Polyester Sector - The PTA market has shown signs of recovery, with prices increasing by 1.45% to 4790.2 RMB per ton. The report suggests that if new supply is strictly controlled, the profitability of leading polyester companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials could improve [11][15]. - The report highlights that the polyester industry is entering a phase of orderly growth, with expectations for a gradual improvement in profitability as new capacity additions slow down [11][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as top refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec, due to their favorable competitive positions and potential for profitability improvement [15][16].