多重因素共振 驱动芳烃板块上涨 对于本轮芳烃系列产品集体上涨，机构普遍认为并非单一因素驱动，而是成本支撑、供应扰动与宏观情 绪共振的结果。 一方面成本端强力支撑。纯苯作为芳烃产业链的源头产品，近期呈现明显的上涨态势，期货与现货价格 齐头并进，市场表现强劲。据隆众资讯显示，截至1月29日，纯苯现货报价已超6000元/吨，较本月初的 5270元/吨大幅上涨13.8%。纯苯价格的强势领涨，带动了整个芳烃链条成本重心上移，是芳烃链产品价 格中枢上移的核心影响因素。纯苯作为炼油、乙烯裂解、PX生产过程中的副产品，供给具有刚性特 征，在国内PX装置高负荷运行背景下，存量纯苯装置也都接近满负荷运行，很难再为市场提供额外的 增量产能。 同时，供应端扰动频发。国内外装置意外减产加剧了供需紧张局面。2025年，中国全年进口纯苯达到了 560万吨，进口依存度约20%，而进口纯苯有超50%来自韩国。2025年8月20日，韩国10家石化企业签署 业务重组协议，承诺削减370万吨石脑油裂解(NCC)产能，这一产能占韩国总产能1470万吨的25%。韩 国石脑油裂解装置除了直接生产乙烯、丙烯之外，还副产较多的芳烃产品，减产可能带来苯、甲苯、 ...

2026 年 01 月 25 日 行业周报 看好/维持 基础化工 基础化工 化工周报（01/19-01/25）： 原油价格持续上涨，PTA-涤纶长丝、PVC 等产品景气回升 ◼ 走势比较 (10%) 4% 18% 32% 46% 60% 25/1/13 25/3/26 25/6/6 25/8/17 25/10/28 26/1/8 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究报告 <<2026 年化工&新材料投资策略："反 内卷"催化周期复苏，"新经济"拉 动新材料成长>>--2025-12-15 证券分析师：王亮 E-MAIL：wangl@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522120001 证券分析师：王海涛 E-MAIL：wanght@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523010001 报告摘要 1.重点行业和产品情况跟踪 原油价格持续上涨。伊朗局势紧张程度不断加剧，推动原油的地 缘政治风险溢价上升。另外，OPEC+举行简短会议，决定暂时停止 2026 年第一季度产量增长计划，维持当前原油产量不变。2025 年四季度以来， OPEC+流露出降低扩产速度的意愿，从而改善市场对原油供给增加的担忧， ...

氨纶新增产能有限叠加落后产能退出，看好氨纶行业迎来景气拐点。据百川盈孚，2020-2025年，我国氨 纶产能从92.5万吨增长至143万吨，产能合计增幅55%，产能年均增速（CAGR）7.6%。其中2022-2024年 氨纶迎来产能快速投放期，年化产能增速均在10-11%左右，显著高于过去5年行业平均产能增速。2025年 氨纶产能同比增速4%，2026年预计仅有华峰化学4万吨新增产能，预计2026年氨纶产能同比增速仅为 3%。落后产能淘汰方面，2025年国内氨纶合计淘汰产能6.3万吨，2026年预计晓星化纤5.4万吨产能于年末 停产。需求端，2020-2025年，我国氨纶表观消费量从72万吨增长至106万吨，年均增速（CAGR）6.7%， 氨纶需求韧性相对较强。随着氨纶行业新增产能大幅下降，叠加落后产能退出，氨纶供给端压力有望显著 下降，在需求持续增长的背景下，我们认为氨纶行业景气拐点已至，持续看好氨纶行业景气修复。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客 ...

面对市场风云变幻、竞争日趋激烈的严峻挑战，炼化企业如何在提质增效的航道上破局前行、筑牢发展 根基? 辽河石化公司以创新驱动为引擎，深耕精益化管理，通过顶层布局挖潜资源潜力、精准把脉市场优化产 品结构、开源节流坚守效益底线，多维度发力、全链条攻坚，2025年全年实现提质增效2.76亿元，超额 完成既定目标，交出了一份亮眼的成绩单。 顶层布局 全力挖掘资源潜力 辽河石化领导班子保持战略定力，加强顶层设计，探寻企业效益挖潜的空间。 2025年，辽河石化以效益为核心航标，提早谋划提质增效工作蓝图。该公司通过细化2个层级任务目 标，制定涵盖5个方面的52项工作举措，构建起一体跟踪实施、分级管控推进的高效运行体系，将提质 增效工作不断引向深入，各项工作业绩全面超越预期，为企业发展筑牢坚实根基。 同时，辽河石化在资源调配和利用上精准施策。据辽河石化生产运行部负责人介绍，他们一方面积极与 辽河油田紧密对接采购计划，全力争取辽河原油资源;另一方面，在确保辽河原油稳定进厂的基础上， 结合生产实际，适时补充中石化原油，仅此一项就增效81万元。此外，他们还积极拓展区域原料互供渠 道，主动协调中石油炼化分公司和周边企业，增加沥青采购量 ...

炼化新风"吹起"荣盛石化 有色板块飙升后，其"近邻"化工板块也正逐步成为市场焦点。最近七个月以来，民营炼化头部企业荣盛 石化涨近70%，市值回升已经超五百亿元。但值得一提的是，即便荣盛石化表现如此"给力"，身为其股 东的沙特阿美依然浮亏超百亿。 荣盛石化正在"回血"。 1月22日，荣盛石化收涨逾4%，股价再创年内新高，总市值上升到1351亿元。至此，从2025年6月23日 算起，这家民营炼化龙头已经"静悄悄"地上涨了接近70%，市值回升近543亿元。 据了解，随着油价波动逐步"区间化"叠加"反内卷"推进，国内炼化行业景气度自2025年下半年以来逐渐 上行，致使荣盛石化也慢慢迎来复苏。不过，即便如此，身为荣盛石化重要股东的沙特阿美依然身处亏 损泥潭。 2023年，沙特阿美全资子公司AOC斥资246亿元成为荣盛石化股东，拿下公司10.13亿股股份。彼时，不 差钱且更加注重业务效应的沙特阿美付出了约九成溢价，这也意味着其一开始就是以亏损开局。 此后，荣盛石化一度跌跌不休，最多时沙特阿美一度亏损约168亿。截至发稿，沙特阿美持有荣盛石化 市值大约有137亿元，整体亏损依然高达约109亿元。 资料显示，荣盛石化旗下炼化 ...

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report emphasizes the revaluation of private refining companies in the petrochemical industry, highlighting that the petrochemical cycle is under pressure but shows signs of improvement ahead [6][7] - Key drivers for the petrochemical cycle include rising oil prices, supply-side capacity clearance, and demand-side stimulus from a loose monetary environment [6][7] - The report predicts that Brent oil prices will fluctuate between $55 and $75 per barrel in 2026, which could benefit refining profitability [7][8] Group 2: Economic Observations - The nominal GDP growth rate stabilized, with Q4 2025 GDP growth at 4.5%, slightly down from 4.8% in Q3 [11][12] - The contribution rates to GDP from final consumption, capital formation, and net exports were 52.9%, 16.0%, and 31.1% respectively in Q4 2025, indicating strong export support and stable consumption [13] - Investment showed a downward trend, with fixed asset investment growth at -3.8% for the year, highlighting the need for policy support to stabilize investment [15][16] Group 3: Industry Insights - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, significantly exceeding market expectations, driven by demand for AI and advanced process technologies [18][20] - The global smartphone market showed resilience in 2025, with a total shipment of 1.26 billion units, a 1.9% increase year-on-year, driven by high-end models and foldable screens [21][22] - The report suggests that the semiconductor industry is experiencing upward price trends, particularly in storage chips, indicating structural investment opportunities [19][23]

来源：中国能源网 投资建议与估值复盘：对于周期性行业，由于业绩的波动性较大，市盈率PE往往容易失真。我们通过 PB（MRQ）、PE（TTM）和ROE中位数得到重新修正后的PE进行复盘。我们发现目前四大民营炼化企 业的PE修正值均处于近十年相对低位。按照ROE线性回归趋势，若后续ROE突破中枢甚至迎来新一次 增长，则预计有较可观的估值提升空间（平均区间约1-3倍）。总体来看，炼化行业正处于"结构性修 复"阶段，在政策出清落后产能和自身产业链优势的双重作用下，龙头企业的估值修复逻辑正在确立。 建议关注我国民营炼化代表龙头：荣盛石化、恒力石化、恒逸石化和东方盛虹，以及已有上游布局的涤 纶长丝龙头桐昆股份。 风险提示：油价剧烈波动；下游景气度复苏不及预期；新材料等项目兑现不及预期；"反内卷"等政策变 化。（东海证券 吴骏燕,谢建斌,张季恺） "反内卷"提供重要支撑。1）政策有力牵引下产能控制逐步落实：国家明确炼油产能不超过10亿吨红 线，扩产周期基本结束。炼化"反内卷"政策通过"关停小产能+限制新增+引导行业自律"三管齐下，改善 行业竞争生态。2）成本中枢回落下，"反内卷"对产品价格托底。2025四季度至今，我们跟踪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Donghai Securities indicates that the refining industry is currently in a "structural repair" phase, with leading private refining companies showing low price-to-earnings (PE) ratios compared to the past decade, suggesting potential for significant valuation recovery if return on equity (ROE) improves [1] Group 1: Refining Industry Analysis - The cyclical nature of the petrochemical industry leads to significant performance volatility, making PE ratios often misleading [1] - The report highlights three main conditions for an upward cycle in the petrochemical sector: rising oil prices, supply-side capacity reduction, and demand-side stimulus through monetary easing [1] - The report anticipates that if ROE breaks through its central tendency and enters a new growth phase, there could be a valuation increase of approximately 1-3 times for leading companies [1] Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - The government has set a cap on refining capacity at 1 billion tons, effectively ending the expansion cycle, and is implementing "anti-involution" policies to improve industry competition [2] - The "anti-involution" measures include shutting down small capacities, limiting new additions, and guiding industry self-discipline, which are expected to stabilize product prices [2] - The report notes that the price spread for naphtha cracking ethylene has recently dropped to its lowest annual level but is expected to recover, indicating a positive price transmission mechanism in the industry [2] Group 3: Oil Price Outlook - Oil prices are identified as a key variable for cyclical assessment, with expectations for Brent crude oil prices to fluctuate between $55 and $75 per barrel in 2026 as global supply and demand recover [3] - The report suggests that a stable oil price environment could lead to improved profitability in the refining sector as the global economy rebounds [3] Group 4: International Perspective - The high energy prices in Europe have led to significant capacity reductions among Western chemical companies, creating a trend of "Western retreat and Eastern advance" in chemical production [4] - Chinese private refining companies are positioned to enhance their market power due to their large asset bases and diversified industrial chains, which support long-term growth [4] - The report expresses optimism regarding the strengthening of China's refining discourse and the potential for asset revaluation opportunities in the current market environment [4]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯分析师 贾婷婷 【导语】沥青作为炼化产业链的重要下游产品，其生产利润受原料结构、收率水平、市场供需等多重因 素影响。目前，地方炼厂加工原油与加工稀释沥青的成本不同而差异明显，地方炼厂与主营单位加工油 种不同影响其沥青收率，进而导致利润差异，原料差异主导沥青生产利润分化格局。 地方炼厂原料差异：配额制下原料选择 国内地方炼厂沥青原料差异核心为原油进口配额的获取情况，分为"加工重质原油"与"加工稀释沥青"两 派，且受原料进口监管政策影响显著。2021年6月起，国内对稀释沥青实施进口环节监管政策调整，将 其纳入部分成品油合规监管范围，导致其进口成本每吨增加1218元，这一变化彻底改变了地炼的原料选 择逻辑。 拥有配额的地方炼厂可直接进口与稀释沥青品质接近的南美重质原油（如马瑞原油），无需承担该部分 合规成本加成，原料成本控制能力较强；而无配额地炼加工稀释沥青，即便后续可通过合规流程享受一 定成本抵扣，成本压力仍显著高于前者。2025年数据显示，山东地炼（加工稀释沥青按应收抵扣）生产 沥青的理论利润为-423.84元/吨，山东地炼加工原油生产利 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **PX (Paraxylene)** and **PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid)** sectors within the **petrochemical industry**. The focus is on the supply-demand dynamics, pricing trends, and future capacity expansions in the polyester industry [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Pricing Dynamics - In 2025, international oil prices are expected to decline, leading to suppressed PX prices due to poor downstream demand. However, a recovery in polyester demand towards the end of Q3 and early Q4, along with a surge in orders during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, has driven significant price increases for PX and PTA [1][2]. - The price recovery of PX and PTA is attributed to several factors: - Historically low pricing and profit levels for PX and PTA, particularly in April 2025 due to falling oil prices and weak demand [2]. - Increased downstream demand during colder weather and the "Double Eleven" shopping period, which has significantly boosted polyester orders [2]. - PX supply tightness is expected to persist, with upcoming expansions at the Huajie Amei (2 million tons) and Yulong Island (3 million tons) projects, although the latter's commissioning is uncertain [2][8]. Supply and Capacity Expansion - From 2023 to 2025, PX capacity has not expanded, while PTA capacity has significantly increased, leading to a supply-demand mismatch that has driven PX prices up [3]. - In Q4, PX production is projected to grow by 2%-6%, PTA by 5%-7%, and polyester by 1%-5%, indicating a stronger supply of PTA and polyester compared to PX [1][3]. - The PTA industry is expected to see a gradual shutdown of older production facilities, with an estimated 1.3 to 1.5 million tons of outdated capacity being eliminated over the next year, which may help restore the price differential between PX and PTA [4][5]. Technological Improvements - Technological advancements in new production facilities have led to improved energy efficiency and reduced material consumption, contributing to a widening price gap. For instance, the single consumption of PS has decreased from 0.665 to 0.648, and acetic acid consumption has dropped from 0.04 to 0.029 [1][3]. Market Structure and Competition - The polyester industry is expected to undergo significant capacity expansion over the next three years, driven primarily by consumer demand. Approximately 20%-30% of the PTA capacity is considered outdated and is likely to be phased out in the next 3-5 years [6][7]. - The concentration of the PTA industry is high, with the top eight companies holding over 60% of the market share, which may enhance price control capabilities [10]. Future Outlook - The chemical industry is anticipated to gradually restore price differentials, with downstream demand being a critical factor. Economic growth in Europe is expected to boost consumer spending, positively impacting demand [11]. - Despite the anticipated price corrections, the overall trend remains positive, with China's advanced technology and cost control in the polyester supply chain positioning it favorably on a global scale [11][12]. Regulatory and Policy Impacts - Government policies aimed at reducing overcapacity may face challenges due to the economic implications of job losses and tax revenues. The integration of small local refineries into larger operations is ongoing, but the pace of this transition is slow [14][17]. Conclusion - The PX and PTA sectors are experiencing significant changes driven by supply-demand dynamics, technological advancements, and regulatory policies. The outlook for the polyester industry remains optimistic, with expected capacity expansions and improvements in market structure contributing to long-term growth [1][6][11].