近日，共同社援引联合国经济和社会事务部2025年11月发布的报告，抛出了一组颠覆认知的全球城市人 口数据：印度尼西亚雅加达稳坐第一，孟加拉国首都达卡紧随其后，曾经霸榜多年的东京只能屈居第 三。 反观排名飙升的上海、雅加达、达卡这些城市，走的是完全不同的增长路径。雅加达和达卡现在正处于 城市化加速期，农村人口源源不断涌入城市，再加上本身强劲的自然增长，人口像"滚雪球"一样膨胀 ——雅加达现在人口已经逼近4200万，达卡也有3660万，远超东京。而上海的逆袭，离不开长三角经济 这里有个很有意思的反差：2015年到2025年这十年间，日本全国总人口足足减少了约400万，但东京首 都圈人口却逆势增加了30多万。这说明东京并非失去了吸引力，反而还是日本的"人口黑洞"，靠吸附全 国的年轻人和外籍人口勉强维持增长。但架不住日本全国人口负增长的大趋势，"输血式"增长终究难以 为继。 东京的滑落，核心原因还是日本躲不开的老龄化和少子化"双重暴击"。这些年日本少子化程度越来越 深，2024年出生人口仅68.6万，死亡人口却近160万，总和生育率跌到1.15的历史低位。哪怕东京能吸引 外来人口，也填不上自然人口减少的大坑。再加上东 ...

Core Viewpoint - The newly introduced childcare subsidy policy aims to provide financial support for families with children under three years old, with a current annual subsidy of 3600 yuan per child, which many perceive as insufficient given the high costs of raising children in China [4][5][24]. Group 1: Subsidy Details - Starting from January 1, 2025, the government will issue subsidies for children under three years old, with a basic standard of 3600 yuan per child per year [4][5]. - Some regions, like Hohhot, offer additional one-time subsidies, making the total support for a first child up to 20800 yuan [8]. - The expectation is that the subsidy amount may increase in the future, potentially reaching 10000 yuan or more per year [8]. Group 2: Cost of Raising Children - The average cost of raising a child in China from 0 to 17 years is approximately 538,312 yuan, with urban areas like Shanghai and Beijing having even higher costs of 101,000 yuan and 93,600 yuan respectively [20][21]. - The breakdown of costs shows that raising a child involves significant expenses at various stages, with the largest portion incurred during the ages of 6-14 years [23]. - The high cost of child-rearing in China is highlighted by the fact that it is 6.3 times the per capita GDP, which is among the highest globally [21]. Group 3: Societal Attitudes Towards Childbirth - There is a growing sentiment among the public that the current subsidy is inadequate, with many individuals expressing that they would not consider having children for such a small financial incentive [5][6][9]. - The article notes that societal attitudes towards childbirth are influenced by various factors, including economic conditions and personal aspirations, leading to a decline in birth rates [30][31][35]. - The disparity in birth rates between wealthier and poorer populations is evident, with lower-income families often having a higher birth rate compared to their wealthier counterparts [35][49]. Group 4: Policy Implications and Recommendations - The government’s intention behind the subsidy is to provide a safety net for families who wish to have children, rather than to encourage high-income families to have more children [24][27]. - Suggestions for improving the situation include creating a more supportive environment for families, such as enhancing childcare services, providing parental leave, and ensuring access to quality education [67][68]. - The article argues against punitive measures like taxing single individuals, emphasizing the need for positive incentives rather than moral coercion [62][68].