Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the recent supply - demand pattern may improve, and the current valuation is low. If there are relevant policies, the disk may have room to rise. For short - term trading, it is recommended to operate within a range, and go long on dry - season contracts when the price is low [3]. - For polysilicon, the supply and demand on both ends are weakening, with large inventory pressure and general consumer - end performance. The fundamentals are weak. The disk is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and with stricter supervision, the disk is expected to gradually fall back to the fundamentals. Short - term trading should be cautiously bearish, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On December 1, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9,120 yuan/ton and closed at 9,145 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan/ton (- 0.16%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 203,274 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts on December 1 was 6,596 lots, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,500 - 9,600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,700 - 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton. In November 2025, the domestic industrial silicon output was 401,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of industrial silicon was 3.8716 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% [1]. Consumption End - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13,100 - 13,300 yuan/ton. In November, the domestic organic silicon DMC output increased by 3.82% month - on - month and decreased by 1.33% year - on - year. In December, due to the joint emission - reduction plan in November, the industry's overall operating rate is expected to decline month - on - month, and the domestic organic silicon DMC output is expected to decrease by about 3.08% month - on - month compared with November [2]. Strategy - The spot price is stable, and the recent supply - demand pattern may improve. After the old warehouse receipts were cancelled in November, the number of new warehouse receipts registered decreased significantly. The industrial silicon disk is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote, the disk may have room to rise. Short - term trading should operate within a range, and go long on dry - season contracts when the price is low [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On December 1, 2025, the main contract of polysilicon futures 2601 rose, opening at 57,000 yuan/ton and closing at 57,705 yuan/ton, a 3.26% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 142,133 lots (144,759 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 338,696 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 28.10, a 3.69% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.50GW, a 4.17% month - on - month change. The weekly polysilicon output was 24,000 tons, a - 11.40% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer output was 12.02GW, a - 5.95% month - on - month change [4][5]. - In October, the polysilicon output was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, the output in the southwest region was expected to decline significantly [5]. - The prices of battery cells and silicon wafers remained stable. In November, the output of component enterprises decreased by 2.43% month - on - month compared with October. It is expected that the output in December will continue to decline significantly, and the terminal demand will return to the off - season, with the expected month - on - month decline in the operating rate compared with October being 14.77% [5][6]. - From December 3, 2025, the speculative trading margin standard for the polysilicon futures PS2601 contract will be adjusted to 13%, and the hedging trading margin standard will be adjusted to 12%. From December 3, 2025, the single - day opening volume of non - futures company members or customers in the polysilicon futures PS2601 contract shall not exceed 500 lots [6]. Strategy - The supply and demand of polysilicon have both weakened, with large inventory pressure and general consumer - end performance. The fundamentals are weak. After the old warehouse receipts were cancelled in November and few new ones were registered, there was more delivery game in the near - month contracts. The disk is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted, with large disk fluctuations. Short - term trading should be cautiously bearish, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7].