Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Due to the short - term rebound of crude oil at the cost end and the decent low - price transactions of polyethylene, it is not advisable to chase short positions in LLDPE. Instead, there may be a phased rebound [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2509 yesterday was 6963, with a daily decline of - 0.16%. The trading volume was 250,761, and the open interest increased by 17,361 [1]. - **Basis and Spread Changes**: The basis of the 09 contract was 37 yesterday (compared to 90 the day before), and the 09 - 01 contract spread was 27 yesterday (compared to 37 the day before) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In the north, the price was 7000 yuan/ton yesterday (down from 7050 yuan/ton the day before); in the east, it was 7100 yuan/ton (unchanged); in the south, it was 7230 yuan/ton (down from 7250 yuan/ton the day before) [1]. Spot News - The LLDPE market price declined slightly, with a price fluctuation range of 20 - 100 yuan/ton. The linear futures opened higher, then fluctuated and declined. The market sentiment was poor. Some prices of CNPC East China, Sinopec North China, and Sinopec South China were lowered. Traders lacked confidence and mostly quoted lower prices. Downstream factories were cautious and the trading volume was average [1]. Market Condition Analysis - **Macro - aspect**: The trade war has increased global trade uncertainty. However, the short - term rebound of crude oil at the cost end and the decent low - price transactions of polyethylene make it unadvisable to chase short positions [2]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: In the 09 contract of 2025, the expected new production capacity of domestic PE plants is 205 million tons, and the supply pressure is still high. Although there are many maintenance activities in June, it is not enough to change the high - production pattern. On the demand side, the agricultural film is in the off - season, with the overall operating rate decreasing by - 1.07% compared to the previous period, and the demand will continue to decline later. The demand for packaging films is average, with the operating rate decreasing by - 0.59% compared to the previous period. Downstream factories have phased low - price replenishment, but the continuous replenishment intensity is insufficient [2]. - **Future Supply Changes**: Attention should be paid to the price difference between low - density and linear polyethylene. As the HDPE inventory continues to decline and the price difference widens, there may be a situation of capacity switching between the two. Some plants have already started to switch production. If full - density plants continue to switch to HDPE production, the supply pressure of LLDPE may be alleviated later [2]. Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].