Atkore (NYSE:ATKR) Q4 2025 Earnings Call November 20, 2025 08:00 AM ET Speaker4Good morning. My name is Rob, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Atkore's fourth quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you'd like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone key ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年11月18日 【行情分析】 11月18日，中化泉州HDPE等检修装置重启开车，塑料开工率上涨至88%左右，目前开工率处于中 性水平。截至11月14日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降0.36个百分点至44.49%，农膜仍处于旺季，农膜 订单稳定，处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存继续稳定，但包装膜订单继续小幅减少，整体PE 下游开工率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。石化正常去库，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。成 本端，美国政府停摆即将结束，原油价格跌后反弹，但欧佩克将2025年三季度全球石油从短缺40万 桶/日调整为过剩50万桶/日，原油供应过剩格局进一步成为共识，原油价格涨幅有限。供应上，新 增产能50万吨/年的埃克森美孚（惠州）LDPE和70万吨/年的中石油广西石化近期投产。塑料开工率略 有上升。农膜处于旺季，订单逐步积累，只是旺季成色不及预期，农膜价格稳定，北方需求开始减 少，下游开工率下降，下游企业采购意愿不足。贸易商对后市谨慎，普遍降价积极出货，塑料产业 还未有反内卷实际政策落地，当然反内卷与老旧装置淘汰，解决石化产能过剩问题仍是宏观政策， 将影 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PE prices are expected to be under pressure in Q4 due to the pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The cost - end support is average, and the market supply - demand situation is not optimistic. The strategy suggests a bearish view on the single - side market, a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy, and no recommendation for cross - variety trading [6][7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint Overview - **Supply**: The total effective capacity growth rate is 16%, and the domestic production growth rate is 18%. Although imports have declined year - on - year, the overall supply is loose, suppressing prices. The PE total start - up rate is 83.14% (+0.55%). There will be a slight decline in supply next week, but Q4 is expected to maintain a loose supply, with an increasing trend at the end of the year. The US has inventory clearance needs, and imports may remain high at the beginning of the new year [6] - **Demand**: The overall start - up rate of agricultural films is flat, and it has reached the annual high, with limited room for further increase. The start - up rate of PE packaging films is - 0.37%, and that of PE pipes is flat, while the start - up rate of PE hollow products is - 0.44%. The downstream performance is neutral, with the support of peak - season demand, but the willingness to hold goods is average [7] - **Viewpoint**: The cost - end support of PE is average. The demand - side support is strong, but considering the high start - up rate of agricultural films and the increasing supply pressure at the end of the year, the market supply - demand pattern is not optimistic. The market may enter a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in Q4, and prices will be under pressure [8] - **Valuation**: The basis has been significantly repaired, and the month - spread has rebounded from a low level, while the warehouse receipts are still at a high level. The production profit of different processes shows different trends, and the variety comparison also has corresponding changes [8] 3.2 Polyethylene Spread and Profit - **Price Spread**: The domestic spot and futures prices, as well as the basis, month - spread, and non - standard price spread, have shown certain changes. The overseas prices of PE are weak and stable, and the import window is open [12][16][22] - **Raw Material Price**: Crude oil is oscillating at a low level, naphtha is sideways, ethylene has stabilized after a decline, and coal prices are relatively strong [36] - **Production Profit**: The overall profit is compressed, especially in the monomer link. The profits of MTO and externally - purchased ethylene processes have been repaired [42] 3.3 Polyethylene Supply and Demand - **New Capacity**: From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, the nominal capacity growth rate of standard products reached 19.2%, and the effective capacity growth rate was 16.7%. The phased production of standard products has ended, and there will be limited capacity expansion before the 2605 contract [46] - **Existing Start - up**: The supply of standard products is at a neutral level, and the supply will decline slightly in November due to increased maintenance [50] - **Maintenance Plan**: There is an expectation of a decline in subsequent maintenance, and the monthly maintenance volume in Q4 is temporarily lower than that of last year [53] - **Import and Export**: Domestic production has increased significantly, and imports are at a low level year - on - year. The imports of standard products are at a low level, and the imports from the US and Southeast Asia have decreased year - on - year [57][60] - **Inventory**: As supply gradually recovers and upstream enterprises try to hold prices, factory inventories are accumulating. The LD factory inventory has slightly decreased, and the middle and downstream are mainly digesting previous inventories [65][68] - **Downstream Demand**: The start - up rate of agricultural films is at a high level but is expected to peak. The start - up rate of packaging is the same as last year, and the demand for pipes has slightly improved in Q4. Overall, the downstream demand shows marginal decline signs [70][73][75][79]

报告行业投资评级 - Not mentioned 报告的核心观点 - Cost increase and the Double Eleven peak season drive the plastic price to rebound, but under the overall unchanged supply - demand pattern, it is expected that plastic will mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the near future [1] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 行情分析 - On November 14, new maintenance devices such as Zhongtianhechuang LDPE Line 1 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [1] - As of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% compared with the previous week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years, and the raw material inventory of agricultural film remains stable. However, the orders of packaging film continue to decrease slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [1] - Petrochemicals are normal in destocking, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [1] - The US government shutdown is about to end, and the crude oil price rebounds after a decline. However, OPEC has adjusted the global oil supply from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in the third quarter of 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the pattern of crude oil supply surplus has become a consensus, so the increase in crude oil price is limited [1] - In terms of supply, ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE with a new production capacity of 500,000 tons per year has started trial operation, and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a capacity of 800,000 tons per year has recently been put into production. The plastic operating rate has slightly decreased [1] - The agricultural film is in the peak season, and orders are gradually accumulating, but the peak season is not as good as expected. The price of agricultural film is stable, the demand in the north begins to decrease, the downstream operating rate drops, and the procurement willingness of downstream enterprises is insufficient [1] - Traders are cautious about the future market, generally reducing prices and actively shipping. There is no actual policy for anti - involution in the plastic industry yet. Anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of petrochemical over - capacity are still macro - policies that will affect the subsequent market [1] 期现行情 期货方面 - The plastic 2601 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,824 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,896 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,853 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.91%. The position volume decreased by 40,847 lots to 540,755 lots [2] 现货方面 - The PE spot market partially rose, with the price change ranging from - 0 to + 80 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,790 - 7,270 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,770 - 9,380 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,980 - 7,990 yuan/ton [3] 基本面跟踪 - On the supply side, on November 14, new maintenance devices such as Zhongtianhechuang LDPE Line 1 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [4] - In terms of demand, as of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% compared with the previous week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years, and the raw material inventory of agricultural film remains stable. However, the orders of packaging film continue to decrease slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 640,000 tons compared with the previous week, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Petrochemicals are normal in destocking, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [4] - For the raw material crude oil, the Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $64 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5 per ton to $725 per ton compared with the previous week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5 per ton to $735 per ton compared with the previous week [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The plastic industry is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future due to factors such as increased supply, decreased downstream demand, and uncertain cost - related factors [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 12, the restart of maintenance devices at Hengli Petrochemical led to an increase in the plastic operating rate to about 90.5%, which is at a moderately high level. The downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 44.85%. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season with increasing orders, the packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. The petrochemical inventory is moderately high. The crude oil price fluctuated within a narrow range. New production capacities were put into operation, and downstream purchasing willingness was low. The industry lacks effective anti - involution policies [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2601 contract fluctuated with increased positions, closing at 6788 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from the previous day, and the position increased by 2586 lots to 586919 lots [2] - Spot: Most prices in the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 150 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6740 - 7270 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8770 - 9430 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6900 - 8090 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 11, the maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at about 88%, at a moderate level [4] - Demand: As of the week of November 7, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 44.85%. The agricultural film was in the peak season with stable raw material inventory, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Wednesday decreased by 20,000 tons to 690,000 tons, 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year, and is at a moderately high level in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around 64 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 730 US dollars/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 740 US dollars/ton [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The upward pressure on polyolefins is relatively large, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The PE main contract is expected to oscillate within the range, with attention to the 6800 support level. The PP main contract is expected to be weakly oscillating, with attention to the 6500 support level. The LP spread is expected to widen [8]. - There are still supply - demand contradictions in plastics, and it is expected to operate in an oscillating manner [9]. - The trend pressure on PP is relatively large, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [50]. Summary by Directory Plastic 1. Weekly Market Review - On November 7, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6802 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.41%. The average price of LDPE was 9216.67 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.07%. The average price of HDPE was 7550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.31%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7335.88 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.16%. The LLDPE South China basis was 533.88 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.13%. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 79 yuan/ton (- 4) [8][11]. 2. Key Data Tracking - **Month - to - Month Spread**: On November 7, 2025, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 79 yuan/ton (- 4), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 46 yuan/ton (+7), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 125 yuan/ton (- 3) [18]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of decline on November 7, 2025 [19][20]. - **Cost**: In October, WTI crude oil closed at 59.84 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.04 US dollars/barrel from the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at 63.70 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.88 US dollars/barrel from the previous month. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1110 yuan/ton (+30) [22]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 369 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton from the previous month. The profit of coal - based PE was 41 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton from the previous month [27]. - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of polyethylene production in China was 82.59%, an increase of 1.72 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of polyethylene was 66.07 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.67%. The maintenance loss this week was 9.30 tons, a decrease of 1.91 tons from the previous week [32]. - **2025 Production Plan**: Many enterprises have completed production or are in the process of production, and some are planned to be put into production in December 2025, with a total planned production capacity of 543 tons [35]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural film was 49.96%, an increase of 0.43% from the previous week. The operating rate of PE packaging film was 50.78%, a decrease of 0.52% from the previous weekend. The operating rate of PE pipes was 32.67%, a decrease of 0.50% from the previous weekend [38]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 33.4%, with a difference of 1.9% from the annual average level. The data of low - pressure film is significantly different from the annual average, currently accounting for 8.2%, with a difference of 1.6% from the annual average level [41]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 52.74 tons, a decrease of 0.74 tons from the end of last month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.38% [8]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 12,668 lots, a decrease of 37 lots from the previous week [47]. PP 1. Weekly Market Review - On November 7, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 126 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% [52]. 2. Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of PP granules, PP powder, and other products showed different degrees of changes on November 7, 2025 [55]. - **Basis**: On November 7, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6706.67 yuan/ton (- 16.66). The PP basis was 243 yuan/ton (+109), and the basis widened. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 110 yuan/ton (- 26), and the month - to - month spread narrowed [57]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: On November 7, 2025, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 110 yuan/ton (- 26), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 41 yuan/ton (- 22), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 151 yuan/ton (+48) [63]. - **Cost**: In October, WTI crude oil closed at 59.84 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.04 US dollars/barrel from the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at 63.70 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.88 US dollars/barrel from the previous month. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1110 yuan/ton (+30) [68]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 559.82 yuan/ton, an increase of 47.09 yuan/ton from the previous weekend. The profit of coal - based PP was - 405 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135.80 yuan/ton from the previous weekend [73]. - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 77.78%, an increase of 0.72 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 79.65 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.93%. The weekly output of PP powder was 7.66 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.06% [77]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' production lines are in a state of shutdown or maintenance [80]. - **Demand**: This week, the average operating rate of downstream industries was 53.14% (+0.52). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 44.46% (+0.26%), the operating rate of BOPP was 62.45% (+0.88%), the operating rate of injection molding was 59.13% (+0.07%), and the operating rate of pipes was 37.30% (+0.50%) [82]. - **Import and Export Profit**: This week, the import profit of polypropylene was - 347.69 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.66 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week. The export profit was - 27.46 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9.86 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week [87]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic inventory of polypropylene was 59.99 tons (+0.81%); the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina increased by 5.55% month - on - month; the inventory of traders increased by 7.02% month - on - month; the port inventory decreased by 1.07% month - on - month [90]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 14,629 lots, an increase of 60 lots from the previous week [103].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that plastics will likely experience weak and volatile trends in the near term. The increase in plastic production due to the restart of maintenance - related devices and new capacity, combined with the lackluster downstream demand and inventory at a neutral level, as well as the fluctuating cost of crude oil, contribute to this outlook. The absence of practical anti - involution policies also affects the market trend [1]. 3) Summary According to the Catalog **行情分析** - On November 5, the restart of maintenance devices such as Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's HDPE 3 - line increased the plastic operating rate to about 89.5%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season, the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The petrochemical inventory is currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years. The crude oil price fluctuates slightly, and new plastic production capacity has been added. The downstream procurement willingness is insufficient, and there are no practical anti - involution policies. [1] **期现行情** - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract showed an increasing - position and volatile operation, closing at 6814 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.97%. The trading volume increased by 20,008 lots to 553,147 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6790 - 7370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8970 - 9780 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7060 - 8090 yuan/ton [3]. **基本面跟踪** - **Supply**: On November 5, the restart of maintenance devices increased the plastic operating rate to about 89.5% [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week ending October 31, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [4]. - **Inventory**: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 710,000 tons, 30,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [4]. - **Raw Material**: Brent crude oil's 01 contract fluctuated around $65/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained unchanged at $730/ton, and that of Southeast Asian ethylene remained unchanged at $740/ton [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The plastic industry is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state. Although the cost increase and macro - warming have pushed the plastic price to rebound, the plastic itself lacks upward momentum. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented, and the current peak season is not as good as expected, with weak downstream purchasing willingness [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 31, the restart of overhauled devices such as Lianyungang Petrochemical's HDPE Phase I increased the plastic operating rate to around 85%, which is at a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level, and the destocking has accelerated slightly at the end of the month. The cost of crude oil is oscillating. New production capacities have been put into trial operation or production. Although the demand for agricultural film is expected to increase, the current peak season is not satisfactory, and the downstream purchasing willingness is weak [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract decreased by 1.41% to close at 6899 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 15,690 lots to 524,390 lots [2] - **Spot**: The PE spot market mostly declined, with the price range from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6890 - 7370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9050 - 9880 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7160 - 8090 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On October 31, the restart of overhauled devices increased the plastic operating rate to around 85%, which is at a neutral level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of October 31, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - **Inventory**: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday decreased by 20,000 tons to 675,000 tons, 45,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 01 contract dropped to $64/barrel, and the ethylene prices in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia remained flat at $755/ton and $765/ton respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Satellite Chemical [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 34.771 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.73%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.755 billion yuan, up 1.69% year-on-year [1] - The decline in ethane prices has led to a recovery in gross margins, although investment income has negatively impacted net profit [1] - The company is expanding its industrial chain and improving facility support, with significant investments in high-value products [1] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.311 billion yuan, with a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter change of -12.15% and +1.61% respectively [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 21.00%, an increase of 1.67 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit margin was 8.95%, a decrease of 1.60 percentage points [7] - The report forecasts a decrease in net profit for 2025-2027, with estimates of 5.364 billion yuan, 7.089 billion yuan, and 8.665 billion yuan respectively [3][7] Market and Price Analysis - The target price for the company is set at 27.30 yuan, compared to the current price of 17.73 yuan [3] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 59.726 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 11x for 2025 [4][3] Business Expansion and Strategy - The company is investing 26.6 billion yuan in an α-olefin utilization project, which aims to produce high-end polyolefins and other high-value products [7] - The company has signed leasing agreements for 8 new ULEC vessels to support its α-olefin project, expected to be delivered by 2027 [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The recent increase in costs and the improvement in the macro - environment have driven the rebound of plastics, but plastics lack the internal impetus to rise. It is expected that plastics will mainly show a weak and volatile trend [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 28, new maintenance devices such as Zhongyuan Petrochemical's full - density were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 86.5%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.83 percentage points to 45.75% month - on - month. The agricultural film has entered the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has rebounded significantly from a low level. New production capacities have been put into operation, and the plastic operating rate has slightly decreased. Although the demand for agricultural film is expected to increase, the peak - season effect is not as expected, and there is no actual anti - involution policy in the plastic industry. [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract decreased in position, fluctuated and declined. The lowest price was 6,975 yuan/ton, the highest was 7,035 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,985 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.20%. The position decreased by 4,375 lots to 519,487 lots [2]. - **Spot**: The PE spot market showed a mixed trend, with the price change ranging from - 50 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,910 - 7,470 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9,070 - 9,930 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7,260 - 8,090 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On October 28, new maintenance devices such as Zhongyuan Petrochemical's full - density were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 86.5%, which is at a neutral level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of October 24, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.83 percentage points to 45.75% month - on - month. The agricultural film has entered the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - **Inventory**: On Tuesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 720,000 tons week - on - week, 35,000 tons lower than the same period last year, and is currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 01 contract dropped to 64 US dollars/barrel, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 755 US dollars/ton month - on - month, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 765 US dollars/ton month - on - month [4].