Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 23.46 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.93% - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.744 billion yuan, up 33.44% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2.896 billion yuan, reflecting a 29.61% increase [2][6]. - In Q2 2025, the revenue was 11.131 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.05% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 9.72% [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a total revenue of 45.648 billion yuan in 2024, with projections of 50.359 billion yuan in 2025, 60.967 billion yuan in 2026, and 74.925 billion yuan in 2027 [15]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 6.072 billion yuan in 2025, 6.009 billion yuan in 2026, and 9.504 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.2X, 9.7X, and 7.1X [12][15]. - The company has invested in a new project with a total investment of approximately 26.6 billion yuan, which includes a 2.5 million tons per year α-olefin light hydrocarbon supporting raw material facility [12].

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 08 月 22 日 卫星化学（002648.SZ） 公司 1H25 业绩稳健增长，看好α-烯烃综合利用项目建设 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 41,487 | 45,648 | 53,795 | 62,543 | 71,512 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 12.0 | 10.0 | 17.8 | 16.3 | 14.3 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 4,789 | 6,072 | 6,370 | 7,686 | 9,475 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 54.7 | 26.8 | 4.9 | 20.7 | 23.3 | | ROE（%） | 18.8 | 20.0 | 18.2 | 18.5 | 18.9 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 1.42 | 1.80 | 1.89 | 2.28 | 2.81 | | P/E（倍） | 13.5 | 10.7 | 10.2 | 8.4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Satellite Chemical, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][18]. Core Views - Satellite Chemical reported a revenue of 23.46 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.93%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.744 billion yuan, up 33.44% year-on-year [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from a decline in ethane prices, which may help restore profitability in Q3 2025 [2][8]. - The company is expanding its industrial chain and enhancing its facilities, with significant investments in high-value products [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.131 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.05% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.72% [2]. - The gross profit margin for Q2 2025 decreased by 2.35 percentage points to 19.33%, and the net profit margin fell by 2.16 percentage points to 10.55% [8]. - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 10.0%, 10.5%, 9.6%, and 23.0% for the years 2024 to 2027, respectively [4]. Price Target and Valuation - The target price for Satellite Chemical is set at 23.04 yuan, based on a relative valuation method using a 12x PE ratio for 2025 [4][8]. - The current market price is 18.63 yuan, indicating potential upside [4]. Industry Outlook - The report highlights that the ethane supply is returning to normal, which may lead to a more favorable cost structure for the company [8]. - The company is also expected to benefit from the completion of its alpha-olefins project, which has a total investment of 26.6 billion yuan [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xin Yang Feng, Sen Qi Lin, Rui Feng New Material, Sinopec, Ju Hua Co., Yang Nong Chemical, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Sai Lun Tire, and Zhenhua Co. [12] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in products such as phosphoric acid pentoxide (85% up by 9.11%), urea (up by 5.75%), and battery-grade lithium carbonate (up by 4.40%), while also noting declines in products like synthetic ammonia (down by 7.41%) and dichloromethane (down by 5.96%) [6][9][21] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in areas such as import substitution, domestic demand, and high dividend stocks, particularly in light of the recent decline in international oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns [8][10][22] - The chemical industry is currently experiencing a mixed performance, with some sectors like lubricants showing strong results, while others remain weak due to overcapacity and subdued demand [9][10][24] Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report indicates that the chemical industry is facing challenges but also presents opportunities, particularly in the glyphosate sector, which is showing signs of recovery [10][24] - It recommends focusing on companies with strong competitive positions and growth potential, such as Rui Feng New Material and Bao Feng Energy [10][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand in the chemical fertilizer sector, highlighting companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Xin Yang Feng as key players [10][24] Market Performance - The report notes that the basic chemical sector has outperformed the broader market, with a 12-month return of 33.9% compared to 23.2% for the CSI 300 index [4][5] - It provides a detailed analysis of price movements for various chemical products, indicating a general trend of price increases for certain key products while others are experiencing declines [6][9][21] Price Trends - The report details specific price changes for various chemical products, with phosphoric acid pentoxide and urea seeing significant increases, while synthetic ammonia and dichloromethane have seen notable declines [6][9][21] - It highlights the impact of international oil prices on the chemical market, with Brent crude oil prices dropping to $66.59 per barrel, affecting overall market sentiment [8][22][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - In July, influenced by macro - policies such as "anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity", black - series coking coal and coke led the rise. Stable - economy policies from meetings boosted the polyolefin futures. After the digestion of positive factors, prices returned to fundamental trading. With multiple new plants coming into operation in July and more to come, the supply - side pressure is high. Currently in the maintenance season, the pressure from new capacity expansion is temporarily offset. OPEC+ production - increase plans dragged down oil prices, weakening cost - side support. Downstream demand is in the seasonal off - season, with limited highlights expected. Mid - and upstream inventories are slowly decreasing, but the total inventory is higher compared to the same period [1][2]. - Domestic new plants: Jilin Petrochemical's 400,000 - ton/year HDPE plant and Yulong Petrochemical's 500,000 - ton/year PP plant were successfully put into operation in July. Many other plants are waiting to start production, indicating continuous growth in domestic polyolefin new - plant capacity. For domestic existing plants, PE maintenance losses are at a high level year - on - year, some PDH plants have restarted, and PDH - made PP plant maintenance has decreased. Overseas, no new plants were put into operation in July, and overseas under - construction plants face many uncertainties and delays may be common. Overseas PE and PP operating rates have decreased slightly. The LLDPE import window is closed, and China's PE and PP imports are continuously decreasing [2]. - In terms of inventory and demand, downstream demand for polyolefins remains in the seasonal off - season, with factories mainly making rigid purchases. The operating rate of PE's downstream agricultural film has a slight rebound, while the demand for packaging film is weak. The operating rate of PP's downstream woven products fluctuates slightly. The demand side is expected to remain weak. Mid - and upstream polyolefin inventories are slowly decreasing, but the total inventory is higher year - on - year [2]. 3. Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - delivery: L09 - L01 reverse spread, PP09 - PP01 reverse spread [3] - Inter - variety: Narrow the spread between PP2601 and 3MA2601 [3] 4. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 4.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - The report provides charts of the main contract trends, basis, and inter - delivery spreads of LL and PP, including LL North China - main contract basis, L1 - L5, L5 - L9, L9 - L1 for LL, and PP East China - main contract basis, PP1 - PP5, PP5 - PP9, PP9 - PP1 for PP [15]. 4.2 Polyolefin Production Plan - Domestic: Multiple plants have been put into operation in 2025, and many are waiting to start production, such as ExxonMobil Huizhou's 500,000 - ton/year LDPE plant. The total planned production capacity of new domestic plants is large, indicating continuous growth in domestic supply [18][20]. - Overseas: Some plants were put into operation in 2025, and many are in the un - started state. Overseas under - construction plants face many uncertainties, and delays may be common [22]. 4.3 Polyolefin Maintenance Plan - PE: The maintenance season of PE plants has ended, and maintenance losses have increased. The report shows historical maintenance data of PE, oil - based PE, coal - based PE, and alkane - based PE [23][36]. - PP: PP plant maintenance losses fluctuate slightly, and the maintenance volume of PDH - made PP plants is still at a high level [36]. 4.4 Polyolefin Monthly Output - In June, domestic PE output was 2.555 million tons, a decrease of 49,000 tons from May. LLDPE output decreased by 44,000 tons, HDPE increased by 27,000 tons, and LDPE decreased by 33,000 tons. Domestic PP output was 3.165 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from May. PP fiber output increased by 12,000 tons, PP homopolymer decreased by 10,000 tons, and PP copolymer remained unchanged [47]. 4.5 Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE: The production profit of oil - based PE is - 130 yuan/ton, and the operating rate is 90.2%, an increase of 6.3% from last month. With the restart of maintenance plants, the operating rate is expected to increase [62]. - PP: The production profit of oil - based PP is - 522 yuan/ton, and that of PDH - made PP is 394 yuan/ton. The PDH - made PP operating rate is rising. The overall PP operating rate is 83.6%, a decrease of 0.6% from last month [62]. 4.6 Polyolefin Non - standard Price Spread and Operating Ratio - PE: The production ratio of LLDPE and HDPE has decreased, while that of LDPE has increased. The operating ratio of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE has changed accordingly. The non - standard price spreads between HD injection - LL and LDPE - LLDPE have different trends [69]. - PP: The production ratios of PP fiber and PP copolymer injection have decreased, while that of PP non - standard homopolymer injection has increased. The operating ratios of different PP products have also changed, and the non - standard price spread between PP low - melt copolymer and PP fiber has declined [69]. 4.7 Polyolefin Outer - market Price Spread and Import - Export Profit - LL: The import profit in East China is - 26 yuan/ton, and the export profit is - 69 US dollars/ton. The import window is closed, and China's PE imports are decreasing [85]. - PP: The import profit of PP fiber in East China is - 445 yuan/ton, and the export profit is - 26 US dollars/ton. China's PP imports and exports have decreased [85]. 4.8 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE: The operating rate of PE's downstream agricultural film is 27%, an increase of 10% from last month. The operating rate of PE's downstream packaging film is 51%, remaining unchanged from last month [109]. - PP: The operating rate of PP's downstream woven products is 41%, a decrease of 1% from last month. The operating rate of PP's downstream BOPP is 58%, a decrease of 1% from last month. The operating rate of PP's downstream injection molding remains unchanged [109]. 4.9 Polyolefin Downstream Inventory and Order Situation - PE: The raw - material inventory days of PE's downstream agricultural film are 8.1 days, remaining unchanged from last month. The order days are 2.8 days, a decrease of 0.1 days from last month. The raw - material inventory days of PE's downstream packaging film are 7.2 days, an increase of 0.1 days from last month. The order days are 8.1 days, an increase of 0.2 days from last month [115]. - PP: The raw - material inventory days of PP's downstream BOPP are 9.1 days, a decrease of 0.4 days from last month. The finished - product inventory days are 10.6 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from last month. The order days are 8.7 days, a decrease of 0.3 days from last month. The raw - material inventory days of PP's downstream woven products are 6.7 days, a decrease of 0.6 days from last month. The finished - product inventory days are 6.1 days, a decrease of 0.3 days from last month. The order days are 6.9 days, a decrease of 0.6 days from last month [115]. 4.10 Polyolefin Actual Inventory - The upstream petrochemical inventory is 750,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from last month. As the downstream is still in the off - season in August, the inventory is expected to increase slightly [130].

Report Summary 1. Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7100 - 7500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.45% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 34.0% [2] 2. Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for inventory management: - Short L2509 futures at a 25% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 7350 - 7450 to prevent inventory depreciation and lock in profits [2] - Sell L2509C7400 call options at a 50% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 50 - 100 to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if prices rise [2] Procurement Management - When procurement inventory is low and aiming to lock in costs: - Buy L2509 futures at a 50% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 7100 - 7200 to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs [2] - Sell L2509P7200 put options at a 75% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 40 - 80 to collect premiums and lock in the buying price if prices fall [2] 3. Core Views - Recently, the polyolefin market has been driven up by macro - sentiment and coking coal prices. From a fundamental perspective, PE also has upward momentum. Supply - side pressure has been marginally relieved, and demand has been higher than expected. If the high - demand growth rate continues in the second half of the year, PE supply and demand will be in a tight - balance state. Currently, the improvement in macro - sentiment and fundamentals is in resonance, giving PE short - term upward momentum [3] 4. Supply - Side Factors Positive Factors - PE plants are in a seasonal maintenance period, and the concentrated maintenance season is expected to last until mid - July [3] - Some full - density plants have switched production from LLDPE to HDPE due to the high HDPE - LLDPE price spread. Although HDPE supply has increased, its low inventory can absorb the additional supply, and LLDPE supply has decreased marginally [3] - The Iran - Israel conflict may lead to a slight reduction in PE imports from Iran in July - August [3][4] Negative Factors - Multiple HDPE plants are planned to be put into operation in the middle of the year [8] - The current spot price lacks strong support, making the real - world market weak [8] 5. Market Data Futures Prices and Spreads - The plastic main - contract basis on July 11, 2025, was 64 yuan/ton higher than the previous day and 18 yuan/ton lower than the previous week [6] - Details of L01, L05, L09 contract prices, month - to - month spreads, and L - P spreads are provided in the report [9] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - Spot prices and regional spreads in North China, East China, and South China are presented, along with their daily and weekly changes [9] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - Spreads between various HDPE products and LLDPE film, as well as LDPE film and LLDPE film, are given, along with their changes [9] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Prices of Brent crude oil, US ethane, northwest coal, and East China methanol, as well as processing profits from different production methods (oil - based, coal - based, etc.) are provided, along with their changes [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for LLDPE is neutral, with a trend strength of 0, indicating neither a strong bullish nor bearish outlook [3][4]. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, LLDPE is expected to trade in a range. The conflict between Iran and Israel has eased, leading to an expected retracement of the premium caused by polyethylene import risks. The spot market has weak high - price transactions, and the negative feedback from the demand side has affected the industry chain. Although geopolitical issues may fluctuate, the overall short - term trend is sideways [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The L2509 contract closed at 7271 yesterday, down 0.27%. The trading volume was 309,550, and the open interest decreased by 12,263 [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of the 09 contract was 9 yesterday, compared to 50 the previous day. The 09 - 01 contract spread was 47 yesterday, down from 51 the previous day [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In the North China region, the price was 7280 yuan/ton yesterday, down from 7300 yuan/ton the previous day. In the East and South China regions, the prices remained unchanged at 7350 yuan/ton and 7430 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.2 Spot Market News - LLDPE market prices partially declined, with a price range of 20 - 110 yuan/ton. The futures market opened lower and traded weakly, causing cautious market sentiment. Petrochemical companies lowered some ex - factory prices, and traders followed suit. Terminal buyers showed low enthusiasm and a cautious purchasing attitude [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Macro - factors**: The easing of the conflict between Iran and Israel is expected to lead to a retracement of the premium caused by polyethylene import risks. The weak high - price transactions in the spot market and the continuous weakening of the basis have led to negative feedback in the industry chain due to weak demand. However, geopolitical issues may still fluctuate [2]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: In the 09 contract of 2025, the expected new production capacity of domestic PE plants is 2.05 million tons, resulting in significant supply pressure. Although there are many maintenance activities in June, it is not enough to change the high - production pattern. On the demand side, the shed film industry is in the traditional off - season, with weak market demand and low orders. Most enterprises only maintain phased production. The demand for packaging films is average, and the operating rate has decreased by 0.7% compared to the previous period. Downstream factories have phased low - price restocking, but the continuous restocking strength is insufficient [2]. - **Future Considerations**: Attention should be paid to the price difference between low - density and linear polyethylene. Due to the continuous decline in HDPE inventory in the first half of the year and the relatively low inventory year - on - year, the HD - LL price difference has widened, and there may be a switch in production capacity between the two. If full - density plants continue to switch to HDPE production, the supply pressure of LLDPE may be alleviated. Also, the price difference between LDPE and EVA products should be monitored [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The rebound of LLDPE is difficult to sustain, and it will be in a mid - term oscillatory market. Factors such as cost increase, supply - demand imbalance, and weak demand on the consumer side all contribute to this situation. There are also potential changes in supply due to capacity switching [1][2]. 3. Key Points from Each Section 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2509 was 7415, with a daily decline of - 0.38%, trading volume of 414,225, and an increase of 6149 in positions [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 09 - contract basis was - 15, compared to - 82 the previous day; the 09 - 01 contract spread was 68, compared to 63 the previous day [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In the North China region, it was 7400 yuan/ton (7380 yuan/ton the previous day); in the East China region, it was 7450 yuan/ton; in the South China region, it was 7550 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot News The upward trend of LLDPE market prices slowed down, with price fluctuations between 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The linear futures opened high and closed low. Some prices of PetroChina and Sinopec were raised, but traders were more cautious, and downstream factories were hesitant to buy, resulting in poor transactions [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Macro - factors**: The intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran led to a significant rebound in crude oil prices, raising the cost of polyethylene. In 2024, Iran's polyethylene imports were 133.02 million tons, accounting for 9.6% of the total imports, and there may be import disruptions in the future. However, the high - price transactions in the polyethylene spot market weakened, and the basis continued to decline [2]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: In the 2025 09 - contract, the expected new domestic PE plant capacity is 2.05 million tons, with high supply pressure. Although there are many maintenance activities in June, it cannot change the high - production pattern. The demand side is weak, with the greenhouse film industry in the off - season and low orders. The demand for packaging films is average, and the operating rate decreased by - 0.7% compared to the previous period. Downstream factories' continuous restocking ability is insufficient [2]. - **Future Considerations**: Attention should be paid to the price difference between low - density and linear polyethylene, as well as the price difference between LDPE and EVA products. If full - density plants continue to switch to HDPE production, the supply pressure of LLDPE may be alleviated [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The LLDPE trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - LLDPE short-term outlook is bullish [1] Core Viewpoints - The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, causing a sharp rise in crude oil prices, leading to a short-term volatile and bullish trend in polyethylene prices. Future polyethylene imports from Iran may be disrupted. The supply pressure of PE remains high in 2025, while the demand is in a downward trend. The demand from downstream factories is insufficient to drive significant destocking of polyethylene. Attention should be paid to the spread between low-pressure and linear polyethylene, and the possible capacity switch between HDPE and LLDPE may relieve the supply pressure of LLDPE [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of L2509 futures was 7462, with a daily increase of 0.96%, trading volume of 432,373, and an increase in open interest of 2116. The 09 contract basis was -82, and the 09 - 01 contract spread was 63. The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7380 yuan/ton, 7450 yuan/ton, and 8550 yuan/ton respectively [1] Spot News - The domestic PE market fluctuated upwards this week. Due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, the crude oil price rose continuously. The market was bullish on LDPE, and its price increase was more significant than that of LLDPE and HDPE. Although the quotations of petrochemical companies and traders increased, the factory orders did not follow up well, and the market trading volume did not increase [1] Market Condition Analysis - In 2024, Iran's polyethylene imports accounted for 9.6% of the total imports. In 2025, the new production capacity of domestic PE plants on the 09 contract is expected to be 2.05 million tons. The maintenance in June is not enough to change the high - production pattern. The demand for agricultural films is in the off - season, and the overall operating rate has decreased by 0.5%. The demand for packaging films is average, and the operating rate has decreased by 0.45%. The HD - LL spread has widened, and there is a possibility of capacity switch between HDPE and LLDPE. Some plants have already started to switch production [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 1, indicating a relatively bullish trend [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of LLDPE is 0, indicating a neutral stance [3][4]. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term: Do not chase short positions due to the short - term rebound of crude oil at the cost end and the decent low - price trading volume of polyethylene [2]. - Long - term: There is still pressure on LLDPE as the supply pressure is large with new PE plant capacities in 2025 and the demand is weak [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2509 was 7049, with a daily increase of 1.09%. The trading volume was 344,165, and the open interest decreased by 10,950 [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of the 09 contract was - 49 (previous day: 37), and the 09 - 01 contract spread was 31 (previous day: 27) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In North China, the price was 7000 yuan/ton; in East China, it was 7100 yuan/ton; in South China, it was 7230 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Spot News - LLDPE market prices fluctuated between 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The linear futures opened higher and fluctuated upwards, boosting the market trading atmosphere. Some ex - factory prices of PetroChina in the Northwest and Northeast were adjusted, while most others remained stable. Traders tentatively raised prices, and end - users made purchases at low prices [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Macro - aspect**: The trade war has increased global trade uncertainty, but the short - term rebound of crude oil at the cost end and the decent low - price trading volume of polyethylene suggest not to chase short positions [2]. - **Supply - demand**: In the 09 contract of 2025, the expected new PE plant capacity in China is 2.05 million tons, resulting in large supply pressure. Although there are many maintenance plans in June, it is not enough to change the high - production pattern. The demand for agricultural films is in the off - season, with the overall operating rate decreasing by 1.07% compared to the previous period, and the demand will continue to decline. The demand for packaging films is average, with the operating rate decreasing by 0.59%. Downstream factories have phased low - price restocking, but the continuous restocking strength is insufficient [2]. - **Capacity Switch**: Attention should be paid to the price difference between low - density and linear polyethylene. As the HDPE inventory continues to decline and the price difference widens, there may be a capacity switch between the two. Some plants have already started to switch production, and if full - density plants continue to switch to HDPE, the supply pressure of LLDPE may be alleviated [2].