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聚烯烃日报:市场交投提升,聚烯烃震荡走强-20250530
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 03:33
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The trading atmosphere in the polyolefin market has improved, with the market opening higher and moving higher, and prices oscillating stronger. Currently, the number of PE maintenance devices in stock has increased, alleviating the PE supply side. PP's previously shut - down devices have gradually restarted, and the upstream production inventory of polyolefins has been reduced. It is expected that the future supply will increase. The downstream demand is in the off - season, with the agricultural film operating at a low level, the packaging film fluctuating slightly, and the plastic weaving and BOPP industries slightly increasing. The traditional consumption off - season is coming, and terminal factories have low enthusiasm for raw material procurement, mainly making rigid - demand purchases [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 7025 yuan/ton (+53), and the PP main contract closed at 6918 yuan/ton (+25). The LL North China spot was 7050 yuan/ton (-30), the LL East China spot was 7150 yuan/ton (-50), and the PP East China spot was 7060 yuan/ton (+0). The LL North China basis was 25 yuan/ton (-83), the LL East China basis was 125 yuan/ton (-103), and the PP East China basis was 142 yuan/ton (-25) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 76.8% (-1.2%), and the PP operating rate was 75.4% (-1.4%). The PE oil - based production profit was 411.6 yuan/ton (-121.9), the PP oil - based production profit was 31.6 yuan/ton (-121.9), and the PDH - based PP production profit was - 364.3 yuan/ton (-1.1) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit was - 276.5 yuan/ton (-63.3), the PP import profit was - 546.4 yuan/ton (+73.0), and the PP export profit was 19.9 US dollars/ton (-3.4) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 13.0% (-1.1%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 48.6% (-0.6%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 45.7% (+0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 59.8% (-0.4%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Currently, the upstream production inventory of polyolefins has been reduced, and it is expected that the future supply will increase [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Be cautiously bearish on plastics. - Inter - period: None [3]