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下游开工季节性走弱,关注节后累库幅度
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-13 07:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall macro - sentiment has weakened, and the plastic futures market is in a range - bound oscillation. The geopolitical risk premium has boosted oil prices, strengthening the cost support for plastics. However, the fundamentals of plastics are weak, with strong supply and weak demand, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the upper - middle reaches after the holiday. For PP, the cost support exists in the short - term, but the supply - demand structure is still weak, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation and macro guidance during the off - season [4][5]. - The strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - sided trading, no operation for inter - period trading, and a cautious shorting of the L - PP spread when it is high [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,734 yuan/ton (-53), and that of the PP main contract is 6,648 yuan/ton (-45). The spot prices and basis of different regions and varieties have also changed [2]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 87.3% (+1.4%), and the PP operating rate is 75.9% (+2.0%) [2]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is -211.6 yuan/ton (-46.4), and the PP oil - based production profit is -471.6 yuan/ton (-46.4). The PDH - based PP production profit is -546.4 yuan/ton (-29.4) [2]. - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit is -109.0 yuan/ton (-2.3), the PP import profit is -253.8 yuan/ton (-2.4), and the PP export profit is -53.7 US dollars/ton (+10.3) [3]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 24.7% (-5.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 20.3% (-18.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 27.9% (-8.9%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.3% (-4.3%) [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The market is affected by macro - sentiment and fundamentals. The supply pressure remains high due to the high operating rate and more imported resources. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory in the upper - middle reaches may accumulate after the holiday [4]. - **PP**: The cost support exists in the short - term, but the supply - demand structure is still weak. The supply pressure is acceptable in the short - term, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the inventory accumulation situation should be concerned [5]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach as the oil price and raw material propane are strong, providing cost support, and the short - term futures market will oscillate widely following the cost and macro - sentiment [6]. - **Inter - period**: No operation [6]. - **Inter - variety**: Cautiously short the L - PP spread when it is high [6].
聚烯烃日报:市场情绪降温,供需支撑不足-20260120
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-20 03:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - LLDPE and PP are both rated as neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market sentiment has cooled down, and supply - demand support is insufficient. The market is back to fundamental trading and may be weak and volatile in the short term [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Key Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,667 yuan/ton (-28), and that of the PP main contract is 6,482 yuan/ton (-14). LL North China spot is 6,660 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot is 6,730 yuan/ton (-120), and PP East China spot is 6,410 yuan/ton (-30). LL North China basis is -7 yuan/ton (+28), LL East China basis is 63 yuan/ton (-92), and PP East China basis is -72 yuan/ton (-16) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 81.6% (-2.1%), and PP operating rate is 75.6% (+0.1%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is 289.9 yuan/ton (-52.7), PP oil - based production profit is -360.1 yuan/ton (-52.7), and PDH - based PP production profit is -582.4 yuan/ton (+60.7) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit is 240.1 yuan/ton (-23.6), PP import profit is -253.7 yuan/ton (+6.5), and PP export profit is -61.4 US dollars/ton (-0.8) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 36.9% (-1.0%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.2% (-0.8%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.6% (-0.3%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 63.6% (+0.3%) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The geopolitical situation in Iran has eased, and international oil prices have fallen from high levels. There is still an expectation of a decline due to oversupply. After the macro - sentiment cools down, the weak fundamentals of PE are being traded, and the upward trend of the futures price has slowed down. Supply is expected to rise steadily, demand is in the off - season, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory under high supply [2] - **PP**: After the macro - sentiment is digested, the futures price has corrected from a high level. The supply - side may see more maintenance, demand support may weaken, and the overall inventory level is still high. The short - term rebound depends on the scale of supply - side maintenance, and the off - season demand may limit the rebound space [3] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: LLDPE is neutral, and PP is neutral. The market may be weak and volatile in the short term [4] - **Inter - period**: No strategy provided [4] - **Inter - commodity**: No strategy provided [4]
聚烯烃日报:地缘局势缓和油价转跌,聚烯烃涨势放缓-20260116
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-16 05:06
Report Industry Investment Rating - LLDPE is rated neutral, and PP is rated neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - For PE, with the easing of the geopolitical situation in Iran, international oil prices have fallen from their highs. There is still an expectation of a decline in oil prices due to weak demand, weakening the cost - side support and slowing down the upward trend of the PE market. Supply - side maintenance has increased, and the demand side remains in the off - season. Although the upstream inventory has been transferred to traders, the de - stocking pressure persists [3] - For PP, short - term market sentiment has improved, and the expectation of supply reduction and cost - side support have boosted the price. The supply side has co - existed with maintenance and restart, and there is still an expectation of PDH device maintenance. The demand side has seen improved replenishment willingness but limited new orders. The overall inventory level is still high, and the sustainability of the short - term rebound depends on the scale of supply - side maintenance [4] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 6785 yuan/ton (- 35), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6592 yuan/ton (+2). The LL spot price in North China is 6750 yuan/ton (+0), and in East China is 6880 yuan/ton (+0). The PP spot price in East China is 6440 yuan/ton (+20). The LL basis in North China is - 35 yuan/ton (+35), in East China is 95 yuan/ton (+35), and the PP basis in East China is - 152 yuan/ton (+18) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 81.6% (- 2.1%), and the PP operating rate is 75.6% (+0.1%). The PE oil - based production profit is 133.0 yuan/ton (+49.0), the PP oil - based production profit is - 567.0 yuan/ton (+49.0), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 648.0 yuan/ton (+167.4) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Spread - No specific data on non - standard price spreads are provided in the text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit is 259.8 yuan/ton (+1.0), the PP import profit is - 242.2 yuan/ton (+166.9), and the PP export profit is - 57.5 US dollars/ton (- 21.2) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 36.9% (- 1.0%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.2% (- 0.8%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.6% (- 0.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 63.6% (+0.3%) [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The upstream plastic petrochemical inventory has been de - stocked, and the inventory has been transferred to middle - stream traders. The downstream factories have carried out periodic replenishment, but there is still de - stocking pressure for PE under high supply. For PP, the upstream is actively de - stocking, the inventory has been transferred to traders, and the overall inventory level is still high [3][4]
聚烯烃日报:油价反弹,成本端支撑价格小涨-20251023
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:43
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The price of PE followed the cost side to stop falling and rebound due to a slight increase in the international oil price center, but the short - term cost side may still be limited. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand follow - up is limited. The price has fallen to a phased low, and the downward space may be limited [2]. - The cost - side support of PP has slightly recovered due to the rebound of oil prices and the stop - falling rebound of external propane. However, the supply - demand pattern remains loose, suppressing the price. The supply is expected to increase, the demand follow - up is insufficient, and the inventory removal pressure is large [3]. - The strategy suggests to wait and see for single - side trading, conduct reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05, and shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract was 6936 yuan/ton (+53), and that of the PP main contract was 6619 yuan/ton (+36). LL and PP spot prices and basis also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE开工率 was 81.8% (-2.2%), and the PP开工率 was 78.2% (+0.5%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit was 491.8 yuan/ton (-23.8), the PP oil - based production profit was - 138.2 yuan/ton (-23.8), and the PDH - based PP production profit was 168.0 yuan/ton (+45.7) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit was - 147.4 yuan/ton (-0.2), the PP import profit was - 451.7 yuan/ton (+108.4), and the PP export profit was 32.2 US dollars/ton (+2.5) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 42.9% (+7.3%), the PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 52.2% (-0.7%), the PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 was 44.3% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.2% (+0.5%) [1]. 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: The cost - side support is limited, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand follow - up is limited. The price has fallen to a low level, and the downward space may be limited [2]. - **PP**: The cost - side support has slightly recovered, but the supply - demand pattern is loose, the demand follow - up is insufficient, and the inventory removal pressure is large [3]. 3. Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see; short - term weak and volatile [4]. - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4]. - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].
聚烯烃周报:供需延续宽松,聚烯烃走势仍承压-20251019
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-19 12:13
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is under pressure due to the continued loose supply - demand situation. PE and PP prices have weakened recently, affected by factors such as cost - end weakness, supply increases, and insufficient downstream demand [1][2][3]. - For PE, the continuous decline in its price is due to loose supply - demand fundamentals, post - holiday inventory accumulation, and weakened cost support from falling crude oil prices. Although the demand for agricultural films has improved seasonally, overall demand remains limited [2]. - For PP, the weakening of the price is dragged down by the weakening of crude oil and propane prices, and the loose supply - demand pattern also fails to support it. The supply continues to increase, while the downstream demand recovery is slow, and the inventory removal pressure is large [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,874 yuan/ton (-55), and that of the PP main contract is 6,551 yuan/ton (-67). The LL North China spot price is 6,850 yuan/ton (-50), and the LL East China spot price is 6,950 yuan/ton (+0). The PP East China spot price is 6,570 yuan/ton (-50). The LL North China basis is -24 yuan/ton (+5), the LL East China basis is 76 yuan/ton (+55), and the PP East China basis is 19 yuan/ton (+17) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 81.8% (-2.2%), and the PP operating rate is 78.2% (+0.5%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 492.1 yuan/ton (-17.4), the PP oil - based production profit is -127.9 yuan/ton (-17.4), and the PDH - based PP production profit is 131.8 yuan/ton (+66.9) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is -150.5 yuan/ton (+14.5), the PP import profit is -523.3 yuan/ton (+14.6), and the PP export profit is 25.2 US dollars/ton (-1.8) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 42.9% (+7.3%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 52.2% (-0.7%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.3% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.2% (+0.5%) [1]. 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: The recent decline in PE is due to loose supply - demand, post - holiday inventory accumulation, and weakened cost support from falling crude oil prices. The supply is expected to increase, the downstream demand is limited except for the agricultural film sector, and the cost support is weakening [2]. - **PP**: The recent weakening of PP is dragged down by the weakening of crude oil and propane prices, and the loose supply - demand pattern. The supply continues to increase, the downstream demand recovery is slow, the inventory removal pressure is large, and the cost support is weakening [3]. 3. Strategy - **Single - side**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. - **Inter - period**: Conduct reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05. - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].
聚烯烃日报:7月聚烯烃进出口量维持增长-20250821
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 03:05
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, the import and export volumes of polyolefins in China continued to increase. The fundamentals of polyolefins were weak, with high upstream supply, rising inventories, and significant inventory pressure. Although the commissioning of some planned production capacity was postponed, the long - term pressure of new capacity was large. The cost support was weak, and the downstream demand was in the transition from the off - season to the peak season, with a narrow recovery in terminal operation rates [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7347元/吨(+40),PP主力合约收盘价为7056元/吨(+40),LL华北现货为7180元/吨(-40),LL华东现货为7300元/吨(+0),PP华东现货为6980元/吨(-20),LL华北基差为 - 167元/吨(-80),LL华东基差为 - 47元/吨(-40),PP华东基差为 - 76元/吨(-60) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为84.2%(+0.1%),PP开工率为77.9%(+0.6%);PE油制生产利润为455.9元/吨(+59.4),PP油制生产利润为 - 84.1元/吨(+59.4),PDH制PP生产利润为178.2元/吨(+6.6) [1] 3. Non - standard Price Difference of Polyolefins - The report does not provide detailed analysis and data for this part. 4. Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins - LL进口利润为 - 115.4元/吨(-4.0),PP进口利润为 - 545.0元/吨(-47.2),PP出口利润为35.1美元/吨(+0.5) [1] 5. Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins - PE下游农膜开工率为13.8%(+0.8%),PE下游包装膜开工率为49.1%(-0.2%),PP下游塑编开工率为41.4%(+0.3%),PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.1%(+0.3%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The report indicates that the inventories in the upstream and mid - stream sectors of polyolefins have been rising continuously, with significant inventory pressure, but no specific inventory data is provided [2] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - delivery: Reverse spread for 09 - 01 contracts [3] - Inter - variety: None [3]
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250818
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin futures showed narrow - range consolidation. The spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The market heat has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply - demand factors. Summer maintenance is in balance, inventory is slowly being digested, and the market is in a stage of stopping decline after a previous rebound. However, short - term petrochemical inventory may fluctuate, and the de - stocking process in summer is tortuous. Fortunately, the domestic macro - level is still driven by domestic demand, and the terminal备货 demand may gradually pick up in mid - to late August. The market should focus on the rhythm of the autumn stocking market after supply - demand digestion and potential changes in the cost side [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7351, 7346, and 7306 respectively, with changes of 8, - 1, and 19 and percentage changes of 0.11%, - 0.01%, and 0.26%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7084, 7080, and 7058 respectively, with changes of - 1, - 7, and - 8 and percentage changes of - 0.01%, - 0.10%, and - 0.11% [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 185379, 2572, and 67045 respectively, and the open interests were 318815, 16838, and 173330 respectively, with changes of 14919, 834, and - 22825. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 175405, 7038, and 52887 respectively, and the open interests were 363357, 25996, and 110716 respectively, with changes of 12810, 2433, and - 15155 [2]. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 5, 40, and - 45 respectively, compared to previous values of - 4, 60, and - 56. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 4, 22, and - 26 respectively, compared to previous values of - 2, 21, and - 19 [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and plastic film were 2415 yuan/ton, 6425 yuan/ton, 562 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6830 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2437 yuan/ton, 6475 yuan/ton, 562 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6860 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Mid - stream**: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7750 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7050 yuan/ton, and 6950 - 7150 yuan/ton respectively [2]. News - On Friday (August 15), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.80 per barrel, down $1.16 or 1.81% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.68 - $64.15. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.85 per barrel, down $0.99 or 1.48% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.73 - $67.06 [2].
宏观氛围延续,聚烯烃偏强运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 03:53
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] Core View - The military conflict between Israel and Iran continues, the macro - atmosphere persists, and polyolefins are running strongly, but the impact of the sentiment side is narrowing. International oil prices and propane prices are running strongly, and the cost support for polyolefins is strengthening. The previously shut - down PE plants have resumed operation, and some plants are scheduled for maintenance, with overall high - level operation. PP maintenance plants have returned, resulting in greater supply - side pressure. The overall inventory level of upstream has a small reduction in the de - stocking range. The overall operating rates of downstream polyolefin industries have not changed much, and terminal enterprises have a small number of new orders, with cautious procurement [2] Summary According to the Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7462 yuan/ton (+44), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 7274 yuan/ton (+60). The spot price of LL in North China is 7450 yuan/ton (+80), the spot price of LL in East China is 7470 yuan/ton (+50), and the spot price of PP in East China is 7280 yuan/ton (+30). The basis of LL in North China is - 12 yuan/ton (+36), the basis of LL in East China is 8 yuan/ton (+6), and the basis of PP in East China is 6 yuan/ton (-30) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 78.7% (-0.5%), PP operating rate is 78.6% (+1.6%). PE oil - based production profit is - 271.7 yuan/ton (+47.0), PP oil - based production profit is - 681.7 yuan/ton (+47.0), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 110.1 yuan/ton (-76.4) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Spread - The document does not provide specific data for this part 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit is - 4.3 yuan/ton (+22.4), PP import profit is - 347.3 yuan/ton (-31.0), and PP export profit is 0.4 US dollars/ton (-1.8) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.1% (-0.3%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.2% (+0.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 43.6% (-0.8%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (+0.0%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The document does not provide specific data for this part, only mentions that the overall inventory level of upstream has a small reduction in the de - stocking range [2]
聚烯烃日报:中东局势升级,成本端带动聚烯烃走强-20250619
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 05:18
Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there is no recommendation for the inter - period strategy [3] Core View - The escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to a strong trend in crude oil prices, driving up polyolefins from the cost side. Propane prices are also strong, and the production profit of PDH - made PP remains in the red. The previously shut - down PE plants have resumed operation, and some plants are under planned maintenance, with overall high - level operation. The shut - down PP plants have returned, putting great pressure on the supply side. The overall inventory level of upstream has a small reduction. In the seasonal consumption off - season, downstream demand remains weak, mainly with terminal rigid - demand procurement. The agricultural film operation has bottomed out and rebounded but is still at a low level, and demand cannot drive the market [2] Summary by Directory I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7418 yuan/ton (+101), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 7214 yuan/ton (+89). The LL North China spot price is 7370 yuan/ton (+60), the LL East China spot price is 7420 yuan/ton (+70), and the PP East China spot price is 7250 yuan/ton (+60). The LL North China basis is - 48 yuan/ton (-41), the LL East China basis is 2 yuan/ton (-31), and the PP East China basis is 36 yuan/ton (-29) [1] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 79.2% (+1.8%), and the PP operating rate is 78.6% (+1.6%). The PE oil - based production profit is - 318.7 yuan/ton (-251.0), the PP oil - based production profit is - 718.7 yuan/ton (-251.0), and the PDH - made PP production profit is - 33.7 yuan/ton (-40.2) [1] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given content IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is - 26.6 yuan/ton (-3.6), the PP import profit is - 316.3 yuan/ton (+6.4), and the PP export profit is 2.2 US dollars/ton (-0.8) [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.4% (-0.5%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.4% (-0.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.4% (-0.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (+0.0%) [1] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data provided in the given content
聚烯烃日报:冲突加剧,聚烯烃延续走高-20250618
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 03:23
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the unilateral strategy of polyolefins and no rating for the inter - period strategy [3] Core Viewpoints - The escalation of the geopolitical situation between Israel and Iran has led to a significant increase in international oil prices, strengthening the cost support for polyolefins [2] - PE's previous maintenance devices have resumed operation, and some devices are under planned maintenance, with overall high - level operation. PP's maintenance devices have returned, resulting in greater supply - side pressure, and the upstream inventory level has a small de - stocking amplitude [2] - It is the seasonal consumption off - season, and downstream demand remains weak, mainly for terminal rigid - demand procurement. The agricultural film operation rate has bottomed out and rebounded but is still at a low level, and demand is difficult to drive [2] - The production profit of PDH - made PP remains in the loss state. New maintenance of PDH devices in Shaoxing Sanyuan and Haitian Petrochemical, and the extended maintenance of Juzhengyuan have strengthened the cost support for PP [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - It includes the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts, and the basis between LL/PP in East China and their main contracts [8][11] 2. Production Profit and Operation Rate - It covers the production profit of LL (crude - oil - made), PE operation rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit (crude - oil - made and PDH - made), PP operation rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - made PP capacity utilization rate [18][21][30] 3. Non - standard Price Difference of Polyolefins - It involves the price differences between HD injection molding/HD hollow/HD film/LD in East China and LL, and the price differences between PP low - melt copolymer and PP homopolymer injection molding in East China and PP drawing [29][37][38] 4. Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins - It includes the import and export profits of LL and PP, and the price differences between different regions' FOB/CFR prices and China's CFR price [42][54][62] 5. Downstream Operation and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins - It contains the operation rates of PE's downstream agricultural film, packaging film, and winding film, and PP's downstream plastic weaving, BOPP film, and injection molding, as well as the production profits of PP's downstream plastic weaving and BOPP film [63][64][72] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - It includes the inventories of PE and PP in oil - making enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [74][78][82]