Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, the import and export volumes of polyolefins in China continued to increase. The fundamentals of polyolefins were weak, with high upstream supply, rising inventories, and significant inventory pressure. Although the commissioning of some planned production capacity was postponed, the long - term pressure of new capacity was large. The cost support was weak, and the downstream demand was in the transition from the off - season to the peak season, with a narrow recovery in terminal operation rates [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7347元/吨（+40），PP主力合约收盘价为7056元/吨（+40），LL华北现货为7180元/吨（-40），LL华东现货为7300元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6980元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为 - 167元/吨（-80），LL华东基差为 - 47元/吨（-40），PP华东基差为 - 76元/吨（-60） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为84.2%（+0.1%），PP开工率为77.9%（+0.6%）；PE油制生产利润为455.9元/吨（+59.4），PP油制生产利润为 - 84.1元/吨（+59.4），PDH制PP生产利润为178.2元/吨（+6.6） [1] 3. Non - standard Price Difference of Polyolefins - The report does not provide detailed analysis and data for this part. 4. Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins - LL进口利润为 - 115.4元/吨（-4.0），PP进口利润为 - 545.0元/吨（-47.2），PP出口利润为35.1美元/吨（+0.5） [1] 5. Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins - PE下游农膜开工率为13.8%（+0.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.1%（-0.2%），PP下游塑编开工率为41.4%（+0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.1%（+0.3%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The report indicates that the inventories in the upstream and mid - stream sectors of polyolefins have been rising continuously, with significant inventory pressure, but no specific inventory data is provided [2] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - delivery: Reverse spread for 09 - 01 contracts [3] - Inter - variety: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The trading atmosphere in the polyolefin market has improved, with the market opening higher and moving higher, and prices oscillating stronger. Currently, the number of PE maintenance devices in stock has increased, alleviating the PE supply side. PP's previously shut - down devices have gradually restarted, and the upstream production inventory of polyolefins has been reduced. It is expected that the future supply will increase. The downstream demand is in the off - season, with the agricultural film operating at a low level, the packaging film fluctuating slightly, and the plastic weaving and BOPP industries slightly increasing. The traditional consumption off - season is coming, and terminal factories have low enthusiasm for raw material procurement, mainly making rigid - demand purchases [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 7025 yuan/ton (+53), and the PP main contract closed at 6918 yuan/ton (+25). The LL North China spot was 7050 yuan/ton (-30), the LL East China spot was 7150 yuan/ton (-50), and the PP East China spot was 7060 yuan/ton (+0). The LL North China basis was 25 yuan/ton (-83), the LL East China basis was 125 yuan/ton (-103), and the PP East China basis was 142 yuan/ton (-25) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 76.8% (-1.2%), and the PP operating rate was 75.4% (-1.4%). The PE oil - based production profit was 411.6 yuan/ton (-121.9), the PP oil - based production profit was 31.6 yuan/ton (-121.9), and the PDH - based PP production profit was - 364.3 yuan/ton (-1.1) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit was - 276.5 yuan/ton (-63.3), the PP import profit was - 546.4 yuan/ton (+73.0), and the PP export profit was 19.9 US dollars/ton (-3.4) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 13.0% (-1.1%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 48.6% (-0.6%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 45.7% (+0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 59.8% (-0.4%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Currently, the upstream production inventory of polyolefins has been reduced, and it is expected that the future supply will increase [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Be cautiously bearish on plastics. - Inter - period: None [3]