1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the polyethylene (PE) market show a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the inventory is expected to rise. The demand side has limited restocking, and attention should be paid to the destocking rhythm after the downstream resumes work. The short - term cost support is strong, which boosts the price [3]. - For polypropylene (PP), geopolitical disturbances push up oil prices and propane prices, increasing the cost support. The supply is reduced in the short term, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term cost increase still boosts the price. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the destocking rhythm of the upstream and middle - stream after the downstream resumes work [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,668 yuan/ton (-109), and that of the PP main contract is 6,675 yuan/ton (-45). The LL spot prices in North China and East China are 6,580 yuan/ton (-100) and 6,660 yuan/ton (-120) respectively. The PP spot price in East China is 6,650 yuan/ton (-30). The LL basis in North China is -88 yuan/ton (+9), the LL basis in East China is -8 yuan/ton (-11), and the PP basis in East China is -25 yuan/ton (+15) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 88.0% (-0.5%), and the PP operating rate is 75.5% (-0.4%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is -215.7 yuan/ton (+13.9), the PP oil - based production profit is -555.7 yuan/ton (+13.9), and the PDH - based PP production profit is -467.7 yuan/ton (+20.3) [1]. - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit is -42.0 yuan/ton (-17.3), the PP import profit is -390.5 yuan/ton (-58.0), and the PP export profit is -62.5 US dollars/ton (-8.2) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 10.1% (-14.7%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 24.7% (+4.4%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 29.3% (+5.2%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 36.7% (-6.0%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the inventory is expected to rise. The demand side has limited restocking, and attention should be paid to the destocking rhythm after the downstream resumes work. The short - term cost support is strong, which boosts the price [3]. - **PP**: Geopolitical disturbances push up oil prices and propane prices, increasing the cost support. The supply is reduced in the short term, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term cost increase still boosts the price. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the destocking rhythm of the upstream and middle - stream after the downstream resumes work [4]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Wait and see; in the short term, it mainly fluctuates with the cost side [5]. - **Inter - period**: Cautiously shrink the L05 - 09 spread when it is high [5]. - **Inter - variety**: Cautiously shrink the L - PP spread when it is high [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall macro - sentiment has weakened, and the plastic futures market is in a range - bound oscillation. The geopolitical risk premium has boosted oil prices, strengthening the cost support for plastics. However, the fundamentals of plastics are weak, with strong supply and weak demand, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the upper - middle reaches after the holiday. For PP, the cost support exists in the short - term, but the supply - demand structure is still weak, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation and macro guidance during the off - season [4][5]. - The strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - sided trading, no operation for inter - period trading, and a cautious shorting of the L - PP spread when it is high [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,734 yuan/ton (-53), and that of the PP main contract is 6,648 yuan/ton (-45). The spot prices and basis of different regions and varieties have also changed [2]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 87.3% (+1.4%), and the PP operating rate is 75.9% (+2.0%) [2]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is -211.6 yuan/ton (-46.4), and the PP oil - based production profit is -471.6 yuan/ton (-46.4). The PDH - based PP production profit is -546.4 yuan/ton (-29.4) [2]. - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit is -109.0 yuan/ton (-2.3), the PP import profit is -253.8 yuan/ton (-2.4), and the PP export profit is -53.7 US dollars/ton (+10.3) [3]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 24.7% (-5.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 20.3% (-18.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 27.9% (-8.9%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.3% (-4.3%) [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The market is affected by macro - sentiment and fundamentals. The supply pressure remains high due to the high operating rate and more imported resources. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory in the upper - middle reaches may accumulate after the holiday [4]. - **PP**: The cost support exists in the short - term, but the supply - demand structure is still weak. The supply pressure is acceptable in the short - term, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the inventory accumulation situation should be concerned [5]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach as the oil price and raw material propane are strong, providing cost support, and the short - term futures market will oscillate widely following the cost and macro - sentiment [6]. - **Inter - period**: No operation [6]. - **Inter - variety**: Cautiously short the L - PP spread when it is high [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, the import and export volumes of polyolefins in China continued to increase. The fundamentals of polyolefins were weak, with high upstream supply, rising inventories, and significant inventory pressure. Although the commissioning of some planned production capacity was postponed, the long - term pressure of new capacity was large. The cost support was weak, and the downstream demand was in the transition from the off - season to the peak season, with a narrow recovery in terminal operation rates [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7347元/吨（+40），PP主力合约收盘价为7056元/吨（+40），LL华北现货为7180元/吨（-40），LL华东现货为7300元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6980元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为 - 167元/吨（-80），LL华东基差为 - 47元/吨（-40），PP华东基差为 - 76元/吨（-60） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为84.2%（+0.1%），PP开工率为77.9%（+0.6%）；PE油制生产利润为455.9元/吨（+59.4），PP油制生产利润为 - 84.1元/吨（+59.4），PDH制PP生产利润为178.2元/吨（+6.6） [1] 3. Non - standard Price Difference of Polyolefins - The report does not provide detailed analysis and data for this part. 4. Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins - LL进口利润为 - 115.4元/吨（-4.0），PP进口利润为 - 545.0元/吨（-47.2），PP出口利润为35.1美元/吨（+0.5） [1] 5. Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins - PE下游农膜开工率为13.8%（+0.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.1%（-0.2%），PP下游塑编开工率为41.4%（+0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.1%（+0.3%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The report indicates that the inventories in the upstream and mid - stream sectors of polyolefins have been rising continuously, with significant inventory pressure, but no specific inventory data is provided [2] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - delivery: Reverse spread for 09 - 01 contracts [3] - Inter - variety: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The trading atmosphere in the polyolefin market has improved, with the market opening higher and moving higher, and prices oscillating stronger. Currently, the number of PE maintenance devices in stock has increased, alleviating the PE supply side. PP's previously shut - down devices have gradually restarted, and the upstream production inventory of polyolefins has been reduced. It is expected that the future supply will increase. The downstream demand is in the off - season, with the agricultural film operating at a low level, the packaging film fluctuating slightly, and the plastic weaving and BOPP industries slightly increasing. The traditional consumption off - season is coming, and terminal factories have low enthusiasm for raw material procurement, mainly making rigid - demand purchases [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 7025 yuan/ton (+53), and the PP main contract closed at 6918 yuan/ton (+25). The LL North China spot was 7050 yuan/ton (-30), the LL East China spot was 7150 yuan/ton (-50), and the PP East China spot was 7060 yuan/ton (+0). The LL North China basis was 25 yuan/ton (-83), the LL East China basis was 125 yuan/ton (-103), and the PP East China basis was 142 yuan/ton (-25) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 76.8% (-1.2%), and the PP operating rate was 75.4% (-1.4%). The PE oil - based production profit was 411.6 yuan/ton (-121.9), the PP oil - based production profit was 31.6 yuan/ton (-121.9), and the PDH - based PP production profit was - 364.3 yuan/ton (-1.1) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit was - 276.5 yuan/ton (-63.3), the PP import profit was - 546.4 yuan/ton (+73.0), and the PP export profit was 19.9 US dollars/ton (-3.4) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 13.0% (-1.1%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 48.6% (-0.6%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 45.7% (+0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 59.8% (-0.4%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Currently, the upstream production inventory of polyolefins has been reduced, and it is expected that the future supply will increase [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Be cautiously bearish on plastics. - Inter - period: None [3]