Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] Core View - The military conflict between Israel and Iran continues, the macro - atmosphere persists, and polyolefins are running strongly, but the impact of the sentiment side is narrowing. International oil prices and propane prices are running strongly, and the cost support for polyolefins is strengthening. The previously shut - down PE plants have resumed operation, and some plants are scheduled for maintenance, with overall high - level operation. PP maintenance plants have returned, resulting in greater supply - side pressure. The overall inventory level of upstream has a small reduction in the de - stocking range. The overall operating rates of downstream polyolefin industries have not changed much, and terminal enterprises have a small number of new orders, with cautious procurement [2] Summary According to the Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7462 yuan/ton (+44), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 7274 yuan/ton (+60). The spot price of LL in North China is 7450 yuan/ton (+80), the spot price of LL in East China is 7470 yuan/ton (+50), and the spot price of PP in East China is 7280 yuan/ton (+30). The basis of LL in North China is - 12 yuan/ton (+36), the basis of LL in East China is 8 yuan/ton (+6), and the basis of PP in East China is 6 yuan/ton (-30) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 78.7% (-0.5%), PP operating rate is 78.6% (+1.6%). PE oil - based production profit is - 271.7 yuan/ton (+47.0), PP oil - based production profit is - 681.7 yuan/ton (+47.0), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 110.1 yuan/ton (-76.4) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Spread - The document does not provide specific data for this part 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit is - 4.3 yuan/ton (+22.4), PP import profit is - 347.3 yuan/ton (-31.0), and PP export profit is 0.4 US dollars/ton (-1.8) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.1% (-0.3%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.2% (+0.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 43.6% (-0.8%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (+0.0%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The document does not provide specific data for this part, only mentions that the overall inventory level of upstream has a small reduction in the de - stocking range [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there is no recommendation for the inter - period strategy [3] Core View - The escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to a strong trend in crude oil prices, driving up polyolefins from the cost side. Propane prices are also strong, and the production profit of PDH - made PP remains in the red. The previously shut - down PE plants have resumed operation, and some plants are under planned maintenance, with overall high - level operation. The shut - down PP plants have returned, putting great pressure on the supply side. The overall inventory level of upstream has a small reduction. In the seasonal consumption off - season, downstream demand remains weak, mainly with terminal rigid - demand procurement. The agricultural film operation has bottomed out and rebounded but is still at a low level, and demand cannot drive the market [2] Summary by Directory I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7418 yuan/ton (+101), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 7214 yuan/ton (+89). The LL North China spot price is 7370 yuan/ton (+60), the LL East China spot price is 7420 yuan/ton (+70), and the PP East China spot price is 7250 yuan/ton (+60). The LL North China basis is - 48 yuan/ton (-41), the LL East China basis is 2 yuan/ton (-31), and the PP East China basis is 36 yuan/ton (-29) [1] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 79.2% (+1.8%), and the PP operating rate is 78.6% (+1.6%). The PE oil - based production profit is - 318.7 yuan/ton (-251.0), the PP oil - based production profit is - 718.7 yuan/ton (-251.0), and the PDH - made PP production profit is - 33.7 yuan/ton (-40.2) [1] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given content IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is - 26.6 yuan/ton (-3.6), the PP import profit is - 316.3 yuan/ton (+6.4), and the PP export profit is 2.2 US dollars/ton (-0.8) [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.4% (-0.5%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.4% (-0.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.4% (-0.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (+0.0%) [1] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data provided in the given content

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the unilateral strategy of polyolefins and no rating for the inter - period strategy [3] Core Viewpoints - The escalation of the geopolitical situation between Israel and Iran has led to a significant increase in international oil prices, strengthening the cost support for polyolefins [2] - PE's previous maintenance devices have resumed operation, and some devices are under planned maintenance, with overall high - level operation. PP's maintenance devices have returned, resulting in greater supply - side pressure, and the upstream inventory level has a small de - stocking amplitude [2] - It is the seasonal consumption off - season, and downstream demand remains weak, mainly for terminal rigid - demand procurement. The agricultural film operation rate has bottomed out and rebounded but is still at a low level, and demand is difficult to drive [2] - The production profit of PDH - made PP remains in the loss state. New maintenance of PDH devices in Shaoxing Sanyuan and Haitian Petrochemical, and the extended maintenance of Juzhengyuan have strengthened the cost support for PP [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - It includes the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts, and the basis between LL/PP in East China and their main contracts [8][11] 2. Production Profit and Operation Rate - It covers the production profit of LL (crude - oil - made), PE operation rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit (crude - oil - made and PDH - made), PP operation rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - made PP capacity utilization rate [18][21][30] 3. Non - standard Price Difference of Polyolefins - It involves the price differences between HD injection molding/HD hollow/HD film/LD in East China and LL, and the price differences between PP low - melt copolymer and PP homopolymer injection molding in East China and PP drawing [29][37][38] 4. Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins - It includes the import and export profits of LL and PP, and the price differences between different regions' FOB/CFR prices and China's CFR price [42][54][62] 5. Downstream Operation and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins - It contains the operation rates of PE's downstream agricultural film, packaging film, and winding film, and PP's downstream plastic weaving, BOPP film, and injection molding, as well as the production profits of PP's downstream plastic weaving and BOPP film [63][64][72] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - It includes the inventories of PE and PP in oil - making enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [74][78][82]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The trading atmosphere in the polyolefin market has improved, with the market opening higher and moving higher, and prices oscillating stronger. Currently, the number of PE maintenance devices in stock has increased, alleviating the PE supply side. PP's previously shut - down devices have gradually restarted, and the upstream production inventory of polyolefins has been reduced. It is expected that the future supply will increase. The downstream demand is in the off - season, with the agricultural film operating at a low level, the packaging film fluctuating slightly, and the plastic weaving and BOPP industries slightly increasing. The traditional consumption off - season is coming, and terminal factories have low enthusiasm for raw material procurement, mainly making rigid - demand purchases [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 7025 yuan/ton (+53), and the PP main contract closed at 6918 yuan/ton (+25). The LL North China spot was 7050 yuan/ton (-30), the LL East China spot was 7150 yuan/ton (-50), and the PP East China spot was 7060 yuan/ton (+0). The LL North China basis was 25 yuan/ton (-83), the LL East China basis was 125 yuan/ton (-103), and the PP East China basis was 142 yuan/ton (-25) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 76.8% (-1.2%), and the PP operating rate was 75.4% (-1.4%). The PE oil - based production profit was 411.6 yuan/ton (-121.9), the PP oil - based production profit was 31.6 yuan/ton (-121.9), and the PDH - based PP production profit was - 364.3 yuan/ton (-1.1) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit was - 276.5 yuan/ton (-63.3), the PP import profit was - 546.4 yuan/ton (+73.0), and the PP export profit was 19.9 US dollars/ton (-3.4) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 13.0% (-1.1%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 48.6% (-0.6%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 45.7% (+0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 59.8% (-0.4%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Currently, the upstream production inventory of polyolefins has been reduced, and it is expected that the future supply will increase [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Be cautiously bearish on plastics. - Inter - period: None [3]

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-05-20 市场分析 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7238元/吨（+2），PP主力合约收盘价为7078元/吨（-15），LL华北现货为7400 元/吨（-20），LL华东现货为7420元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7180元/吨（-50），LL华北基差为162元/吨（-22），LL 华东基差为182元/吨（-2）， PP华东基差为102元/吨（-35）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为79.4%（-4.7%），PP开工率为76.6%（-3.2%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为584.3元/吨（-102.0），PP油制生产利润为154.3元/吨（-102.0），PDH制PP生产利 润为-279.2元/吨（-53.0）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-67.4元/吨（-35.6），PP进口利润为-474.3元/吨（-25.7），PP出口利润为15.3美元/吨（+3.1）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为16.7%（-2.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.7%（+1.1%），PP下游塑编开工率 为45.3%（+0.5%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为59.9%（+2.3%）。 聚 ...

Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The imposition of tariffs by the US affects exports, and polyolefins are mainly in a weak consolidation state. Currently, the supply of PE remains at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to remain stable in the short term, with supply still under pressure. The capacity utilization rate of PP has increased slightly, and it is expected that the number of newly added maintenance enterprises will increase, resulting in a shrinking supply trend. The commissioning of the new Shandong Xinshengdai plant may be postponed. The propane price fluctuates significantly following the international crude oil price, and the production profit of PDH - made PP remains near the break - even point, with a fair cost - side support. The increase in the operating rate of downstream factories is limited, and the operating rate of agricultural films is expected to decline, gradually transitioning to the off - season. Affected by the tariff policy, the external demand for PP is expected to weaken. The inventory in the upstream and mid - stream links has been slightly reduced. [2] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to be cautiously bearish on plastics in the single - side trading, and there is no recommendation for inter - period trading. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7131 yuan/ton (-60), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 7098 yuan/ton (-26). The spot price of LL in North China is 7450 yuan/ton (-20), the spot price of LL in East China is 7480 yuan/ton (-20), and the spot price of PP in East China is 7320 yuan/ton (+0). The basis of LL in North China is 319 yuan/ton (+40), the basis of LL in East China is 349 yuan/ton (+40), and the basis of PP in East China is 222 yuan/ton (+26). [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The operating rate of PE is 83.2% (+0.8%), and the operating rate of PP is 79.0% (+2.7%). The production profit of PE from oil - based production is 645.0 yuan/ton (+1.3), the production profit of PP from oil - based production is 225.0 yuan/ton (+1.3), and the production profit of PDH - made PP is - 82.7 yuan/ton (-54.3). [1] 3. Non - Standard Price Difference of Polyolefins - There is no specific data provided in the given text for this part. 4. Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins - The import profit of LL is - 226.4 yuan/ton (-21.5), the import profit of PP is - 318.4 yuan/ton (-1.2), and the export profit of PP is 67.6 US dollars/ton (+0.2). [1] 5. Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins - The operating rate of PE downstream agricultural films is 37.5% (-3.0%), the operating rate of PE downstream packaging films is 48.1% (+0.3%), the operating rate of PP downstream plastic weaving is 46.7% (-0.9%), and the operating rate of PP downstream BOPP films is 61.8% (+0.0%). [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The text mentions that the inventory in the upstream and mid - stream links has been slightly reduced, but no specific inventory data is provided. [2]