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建信期货聚烯烃日报-20251113
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 02:27
Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report - Date: November 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of polyolefins are expected to remain under pressure. There are no new production plans in November, but some maintenance devices will restart, increasing the capacity expansion pressure and intensifying the imbalance between supply and demand. The downstream demand is weak, with the seasonal peak of agricultural film production passing, the demand for pipes increasing first and then decreasing, and the downstream's willingness to stock up being low due to fear of price drops [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market Performance**: The L2601 contract of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened higher, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 6,788 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton (-0.09%), with a trading volume of 186,000 lots and an increase in positions by 2,586 lots to 586,919 lots. The PP2601 contract of polypropylene closed at 6,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan (-0.11%), with a decrease in positions by 4,959 lots to 636,600 lots. The futures market opened low and fluctuated, the market trading atmosphere changed little, traders mostly offered discounts, and downstream buyers mainly made small - order purchases [5][6] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: There are no new production plans in November, but some maintenance devices will restart, increasing the device operating load and the pressure of new capacity expansion, which intensifies the imbalance between supply and demand. The downstream demand is weak. The agricultural film production has reached a seasonal peak and is declining, the demand for pipes increases first and then decreases, the plastic weaving of PP is boosted by packaging demand, and BOPP enterprises mainly digest inventory. The downstream's low willingness to stock up due to fear of price drops further drags down the transaction price [6] 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: On November 12, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 690,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (-2.82%) from the previous working day, compared with 680,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - **PE Market Price**: The prices of LLDPE in some areas decreased. The price range in North China was 6,760 - 7,000 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,900 - 7,400 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,050 - 7,450 yuan/ton [7] - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong market was 5,750 - 5,780 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous working day. The market was in a supply - demand game, downstream factories mostly waited and watched for rigid demand, producers had a certain intention to stabilize the market, and individual offers had narrow discounts. The overall trading atmosphere was average [7] - **PP Market Price**: Most prices in the PP market fluctuated slightly, and some prices weakened. The mainstream price of North China wire drawing was 6,230 - 6,450 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,320 - 6,600 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6,400 - 6,550 yuan/ton [7] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP price difference, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, but specific data values are not described in detail in the text [9][13][17]