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建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250924
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 01:47
行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 24 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料油) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工业硅) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | 表1:期货市场行情 | ...
合成橡胶产业日报-20250918
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 10:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of domestic cis - butadiene rubber is sufficient. Under the influence of downstream bargain - hunting purchases, the negotiation focus on the spot side is continuously under pressure. Some industry players expect a certain reduction in the mainstream supply price. This week, both enterprise inventories and sample trading enterprise inventories have decreased slightly. Before the holiday, downstream enterprises have pre - holiday stocking needs, and it is expected that buyers will gradually follow up, and the inventory level is expected to continue to decline. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased slightly this week. Most enterprises maintain their current production schedules to reserve inventory around the long holiday and make up for the previous order gap. The overall capacity utilization rate will mainly fluctuate slightly. The short - term price of the BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 11,700 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,415 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan; the position volume of the main contract is 74,503, an increase of 7,604; the 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,610 tons, a decrease of 360 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 11,700 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the basis of synthetic rubber is 235 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The current - week production capacity of butadiene is 151,200 tons/week, with no change; the current - week capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 68.33%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 25,600 tons, a decrease of 5,350 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.64%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points; the monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons; the current - week capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 73.48%, a decrease of 2.68 percentage points; the current - week production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 509 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 34,500 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons; the manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 26,300 tons, an increase of 1,650 tons; the trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 8,210 tons, an increase of 950 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.46%, an increase of 5.99 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.59%, an increase of 5.81 percentage points; the monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, an increase of 1.09 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 38.83 days, a decrease of 0.05 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.94 days, an increase of 0.09 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 18, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 33,700 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29%; as of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points; in August 2025, the output of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber is 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73% [2] 3.6 Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [2]
合成橡胶产业日报-20250821
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 09:07
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The production of domestic cis - butadiene rubber has increased due to the restart of previously - shut - down devices, and the supply is expected to rise significantly. The inventory level of finished products is likely to increase. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tires fluctuated slightly last week. Some semi - steel tire enterprises' maintenance plans dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate, while the resumption of work of all - steel tire maintenance sample enterprises drove up the capacity utilization rate. Although there is still room for a slight increase in capacity utilization rate, the general order performance and enterprise production control will limit the increase. The br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,600 - 12,000 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,775 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/ton; the main contract position was 38,436, with a week - on - week increase of 2,745. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber was 2,490 tons, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11,650 - 11,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11,600 - 11,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 - 150 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was - 25 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil was 65.79 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.81 US dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil was 62.35 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.07 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price was 830 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 US dollars/ton; the price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was 574.5 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3.75 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene (CFR China) was 1,080 US dollars/ton, with no change. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,425 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 135 yuan/ton [2]. - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 15.11 million tons/week, with a week - on - week increase of 0.42 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.69%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 20,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5,700 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 47.52%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.65 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 64.52%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.65 percentage points. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 482 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 124 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 30,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 23,450 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 700 tons; the trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6,990 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 72.07%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.28 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 63.09%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.09 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.75 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 56.97 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.74 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.51 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.73 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.28 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of August 21, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 30,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 200 tons, or 0.56%. As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 69.11%, a week - on - week increase of 0.60 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.55 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 62.62%, a week - on - week increase of 2.56 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.69 percentage points [2]. - In July 2025, the output of cis - butadiene rubber in China was 129,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons, or 5.47%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.04% [2].
合成橡胶产业日报-20250820
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 08:59
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - Cost supports the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber, but with the restart of some devices, domestic supply may increase significantly. Due to downstream caution and production - sales pressure, procurement may be cautious, and the finished product inventory is expected to rise. The br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,600 - 12,000 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,715 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the main contract position is 35,691, down 89; the 9 - 10 spread is - 10 yuan/ton, unchanged; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from different manufacturers in different regions has decreased to varying degrees, with a maximum decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 65 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 151,100 tons, up 4,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 69.69%, down 0.07 percentage points; the port inventory is 20,400 tons, up 5,700 tons; the daily start - up rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 47.52%, up 0.65 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of cis - butadiene rubber is 129,200 tons, up 6,700 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 64.52%, down 3.65 percentage points; the production profit is - 482 yuan/ton, up 124 yuan; the social inventory is 30,400 tons, down 1,000 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 23,450 tons, down 700 tons; the trader's inventory is 6,990 tons, down 300 tons [2]. - The weekly start - up rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.07%, down 2.28 percentage points; the start - up rate of full - steel tires is 63.09%, up 2.09 percentage points; the monthly production of full - steel tires is 12.75 million, up 130,000; the monthly production of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million, up 1.74 million; the inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 39.51 days, up 0.14 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.73 days, up 0.28 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of August 14, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 30,400 tons, down 1,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.18% [2]. - As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 69.11%, down 0.60 percentage points month - on - month and 10.55 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, up 2.56 percentage points month - on - month and 3.69 percentage points year - on - year [2]. - In July 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber production was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.47% and a year - on - year increase of 27.04% [2].
合成橡胶产业日报-20250819
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 08:59
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Cost supports the offer price of cis - butadiene rubber, but with the restart of some devices, domestic supply may increase significantly. Downstream procurement may be cautious, and the finished - product inventory level is expected to rise. The br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,200 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. - Last week, the domestic tire capacity utilization rate fluctuated slightly. Some semi - steel tire enterprises' maintenance dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate, while the resumption of work of all - steel tire maintenance enterprises drove up the capacity utilization rate. There is still room for a slight increase in capacity utilization, but the general order performance will limit the increase [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,840 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 35,780, with a week - on - week increase of 18,326. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber is - 10 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from different petrochemical companies in different regions have increased, with increases ranging from 100 - 200 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 140 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Brent crude oil is 66.6 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.75 dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 63.42 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.62 dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 825 dollars/ton, with no change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 570.75 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.75 dollars/ton; the price of butadiene CFR China is 1,080 dollars/ton, with no change. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,440 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 90 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.11 million tons/week, with a week - on - week increase of 0.42 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate is 69.69%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 20,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5,700 tons; the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 47.52%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.65 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 129,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 64.52%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.65 percentage points. The weekly production profit is - 482 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 124 yuan/ton [2]. - The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 30,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 23,450 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 700 tons; the trader's inventory is 6,990 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.07%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.28 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 63.09%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.09 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.74 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 0.14 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.73 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.28 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of August 14, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 30,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons, or - 3.18% [2]. - As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 69.11%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.60 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.55 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, a week - on - week increase of 2.56 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.69 percentage points [2]. - In July 2025, the output of cis - butadiene rubber in China was 129,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons, or + 5.47%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.04% [2].
螺纹钢周报:成本驱动明显,钢价延续强势-20250726
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-26 12:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is positive, and the prices of finished steel products continue to show a strong trend. The cost side provides significant support for steel prices. The start - up of the Medog Hydropower Station has boosted market expectations for future demand for building materials. In the short term, there are expectations of production capacity reduction on the supply side and demand is stimulated by large - scale infrastructure projects. With low inventory levels, steel prices may have a basis for continuous increase. The notice on coal production verification has also driven up coal prices, further supporting steel prices. Currently, the market is more influenced by policies and sentiment than by fundamentals [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply - side**: This week, the total output of rebar was 2.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. The long - process output was 1.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. The short - process output was 0.24 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.3% and a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4223 million tons, a slight decrease from last week. The blast furnace profit in East China remained around 220 yuan/ton, and the electric furnace profit increased significantly [7]. - **Demand - side**: This week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.17 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. The demand showed a slight recovery but remained weak overall [7]. - **Imports and Exports**: 155,000 tons of steel billets were imported in June [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar was 3.73 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 35.5%. The factory inventory was 1.66 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.7%. The total inventory was 5.39 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.1%. The rebar inventory continued to decline [8]. - **Profit**: The pig iron cost was 2540 yuan/ton, the blast furnace profit was 256 yuan/ton, and the average profit of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was - 33 yuan/ton. The profitability of steel mills continued to rise, and their production willingness was strong [8]. - **Basis**: The lowest warehouse receipt basis was - 52 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was - 1.6% [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: No trading strategy was recommended [11]. 3.2 Futures - Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: The 01 - contract basis was - 103 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was - 128 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract basis was - 44 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread of rebar was - 25 yuan/ton, the 05 - 10 spread was 84 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 59 yuan/ton [19][22]. - **Spreads**: Beijing's coil - rebar spread was 150 yuan/ton (last week: 180 yuan/ton), Shanghai's was 70 yuan/ton (last week: 110 yuan/ton), and Guangzhou's was 0 yuan/ton (last week: - 10 yuan/ton). The Shanghai - Beijing rebar spread was 70 yuan/ton (last week: 60 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou - Shanghai spread was - 22 yuan/ton (last week: 22 yuan/ton). Beijing's premium for spiral rebar was 130 yuan/ton, Shanghai's was 180 yuan/ton, and Guangzhou's was 190 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from last week [27][30][33]. - **Prices and Ratios**: The price of 20MnSi billet in Tangshan was 3240 yuan/ton, the aggregated price of HRB400E Φ20 rebar in Beijing was 3340 yuan/ton. The FOB export price of Chinese rebar was 452 US dollars/ton, and the CFR import prices in Southeast Asia, the US, the EU, and the Middle East were 460, 995, 605, and 610 US dollars/ton respectively. The lowest spot price of rebar was 3250 yuan/ton, the lowest spot price of coke was 1438 yuan/ton, and the lowest spot price of iron ore was 871 yuan/ton [36][39]. 3.3 Profit - The electric furnace profit was - 33 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan/ton from last week. The blast furnace profit of rebar was 256 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton from last week. The scrap steel arrival price was 2242 yuan/ton, the pig iron cost was 3358 yuan/ton, and the average pig iron cost of 64 steel mills was 2540 yuan/ton [42][50]. 3.4 Supply - side - **Weekly Output**: The total weekly output of rebar was 2.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. The long - process output was 1.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. The short - process output was 0.24 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.3% and a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [54]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 91% (unchanged from last week), and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 55%, a week - on - week increase from 52% [57]. - **Pig Iron Output**: The daily average pig iron output was 2.42 million tons, the same as last week [61]. - **Regional Output**: The rebar output in the northern region was 500,000 tons (last week: 450,000 tons), and in the southern region was 740,000 tons (last week: 770,000 tons). In the East China region, it was 880,000 tons, including 340,000 tons in Jiangsu, 80,000 tons in Shandong, and 210,000 tons in Anhui. In Guangdong, it was 200,000 tons, and in Guangxi, it was 60,000 tons [65][68][71]. 3.5 Demand - side - **Building Material Transactions**: The weekly average building material transactions of 237 national distributors were 117,741 tons (last week: 105,098 tons), and in Shanghai, it was 16,600 tons (unchanged from last week). The transactions of building steel in different regions are also provided [75]. - **Rebar Consumption**: The weekly consumption of rebar was 2.17 million tons, and in East China, it was 0.84 million tons. In the Southwest, it was 0.3 million tons, and in South China, it was 0.29 million tons. Other regional consumption data are also available [85][87]. - **Related Prices**: The price of P.O42.5 cement in Hangzhou was 470 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 465 yuan/ton [95]. 3.6 Inventory - **Total and Social Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar was 3.73 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 35.5%. The factory inventory was 1.66 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.7%. The total inventory was 5.39 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.1%. The steel billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.07 million tons (last week: 1.04 million tons) [8][100]. - **Regional Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar in 132 cities was 5.47 million tons, in East China was 2.45 million tons, in Hangzhou was 0.57 million tons, and in Shanghai was 0.17 million tons. Other regional inventory data are also provided [103].
合成橡胶产业日报-20250714
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 11:25
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Cost factors support the current price of cis - butadiene rubber, but downstream procurement remains cautiously followed - up, and shipment resistance may increase. It is expected that the short - term inventory level may increase slightly. - Last week, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises varied. The production schedules of semi - steel tire enterprises under maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually recovered, which boosted the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. The maintenance of individual all - steel tire enterprises dragged down the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires slightly. This week, the production schedules of maintenance enterprises will return to normal levels, and there is still room for the capacity utilization rate to recover, which will boost the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. - The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,300 - 11,700 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,625 yuan/ton, and the main contract position is 24,429, a decrease of 1,865. - The synthetic rubber 8 - 9 spread is 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 1,900 tons, an increase of 300 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different petrochemical companies in different regions has different changes. For example, the mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. - The basis of synthetic rubber is 25 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 70.36 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.72 US dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 68.45 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.88 US dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 820 US dollars/ton, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 1,070 US dollars/ton, the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 584.25 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.75 US dollars/ton, and the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 14.78 million tons/week, with no change; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 68.89%, a decrease of 2.02 percentage points. - The port inventory of butadiene at the end of the week is 23,600 tons, an increase of 1,270 tons. The daily operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 46.14%, an increase of 1.17 percentage points. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 65.54%, a decrease of 1.44 percentage points. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 526 yuan/ton, a decrease of 362 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week is 32,800 tons, a decrease of 400 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week is 26,500 tons, an increase of 150 tons; the trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week is 6,270 tons, a decrease of 530 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, an increase of 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, an increase of 1.08 million pieces. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 40.67 days, an increase of 0.22 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 45.76 days, a decrease of 0.72 days. - As of July 10, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 32,800 tons, a decrease of 400 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%. - As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China is 65.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises in China is 61.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. [2] 3.5 Industry News - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% compared with May this year, and an increase of about 29% compared with 71,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to June this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market are about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6%. - Recently, the low - price transactions at the raw material butadiene end have gradually improved. Affected by the news of a fault in an upstream device in East China, some rigid - demand procurement has followed up with price pressure. The overall inventory of cis - butadiene rubber production enterprises has increased slightly, and the inventory of trading enterprises has decreased slightly. [2]
【中泰有色】铜价再上八万,股票迎来α+β共振
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-04 10:39
Group 1 - Copper prices have surged unexpectedly, driven by rising expectations of interest rate cuts and improving demand sentiment, alongside a declining US dollar index which benefits global commodities, particularly copper and aluminum [1] - The price difference between Comex copper and LME has widened to $1,400, indicating market speculation around the potential removal of Section 232 tariffs [1] - Global copper inventory levels are low, with LME copper stocks decreasing from 270,000 tons at the beginning of the year to 90,000 tons currently, leading to a significant increase in LME copper's backwardation to $320, indicating tightness in the spot market [1] Group 2 - In the copper sector, companies had previously priced in copper prices of $9,000 to $9,500, and the recent price surge is expected to lead to earnings upgrades for these companies [2] - Recommended copper stocks with alpha attributes include Jincheng Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, China Nonferrous Mining, and Minmetals Resources, which are expected to benefit from improved performance and high profit elasticity [2] - In the aluminum sector, while some stocks like China Hongqiao and Zhongfu have shown strong performance, concerns about demand from the photovoltaic sector have led to weaker performance in other aluminum stocks, despite strong underlying demand [2]
农产品日报:减产预期修正,苹果大幅回落-20250610
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 02:48
Report Investment Rating - The strategy for both apples and red dates is neutral [4][8] Core Viewpoints - For apples, the previous expectation of a production cut has weakened with the new - season fruit bagging work progressing, leading to a correction in the futures price. The demand for apples is being impacted by the increasing demand for melons and other summer fruits as the temperature rises. Although the current inventory is at a five - year low with less pressure to clear stocks, there is a risk of price decline due to potential quality issues. Attention should be paid to the yield expectation after bagging [3] - For red dates, the main producing areas' jujube trees are growing normally, and the supply in the sales areas is sufficient with a high total inventory. The price of red dates has been falling under multiple conditions such as the off - season, high inventory, and normal growth in the growing period, and has broken through the warehouse receipt cost of the 2024 production season. Due to over - production in 2024, there are potential risks in the new - season growth, and attention should be paid to the market opportunities brought by high - temperature and drought weather [7] Market News and Important Data Apples - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7486 yuan/ton, a change of - 220 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 2.85% [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP10 + 714, a change of + 220 from the previous day. The price of more than 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP10 + 2114, a change of + 220 from the previous day [1] Red Dates - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2509 contract yesterday was 8910 yuan/ton, a change of + 90 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 1.02% [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade gray dates in Hebei was 8.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CJ09 - 610, a change of - 90 from the previous day [5] Market Analysis Apples - The apple futures price dropped significantly yesterday. The new - season fruit bagging work is in progress, and the previous production cut expectation has weakened, leading to a correction in the futures price. As the temperature rises, the demand for apples is being impacted by other fruits. Currently, the trading in the production areas has slowed down, and the inventory is at a low level, but there is a risk of price decline due to quality issues. Attention should be paid to the yield expectation after bagging [3] Red Dates - The red date futures price rose yesterday. The main producing areas' jujube trees are growing normally, and the supply in the sales areas is sufficient with a high total inventory. The price has been falling in the off - season, and there are potential risks in the new - season growth due to over - production in 2024. Attention should be paid to the market opportunities brought by high - temperature and drought weather [7] Strategy Apples - Adopt a neutral strategy. Continuously monitor the game between low inventory and weak demand, as well as the yield data after bagging [4] Red Dates - Adopt a neutral strategy. The current absolute price is low, and it is in the critical growth period of new - season red dates. Pay close attention to the impact of over - production in the 2024 season and weather changes on the new - season growth. In the short term, the price will fluctuate without growth interference [8]
能源日报-20250520
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 12:50
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly defined, but with short - term support and limited medium - term upside [2] - Fuel oil: High - sulfur cracking spread expected to oscillate at high levels; low - sulfur cracking spread faces pressure to decline from high levels [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Cracking spread faces pressure to decline from high levels [2] - Asphalt: Expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Disk expected to oscillate weakly downward [4] Core Views - The global oil market will shift from a deficit of 300,000 barrels per day in 2024 to a surplus of 640,000 barrels per day, with the expected annual surplus reduced compared to the April report. Short - term factors support oil prices, but medium - term supply - demand pressure limits upside [2] - The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, but the low - sulfur cracking spread may decline. High - sulfur fuel oil demand has offsetting factors, and its cracking spread will oscillate at high levels [2] - The profit of asphalt is prominent, with rising utilization rate this week and expected decline next week. Demand is gradually released in the north and restricted in the south by rainfall. Overall inventory has decreased significantly, and it is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] - The CIF price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas has dropped, and there is still pressure from concentrated arrivals in the first half of May. The import cost support has weakened, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term, with the disk oscillating weakly downward [4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - The global oil market will shift from a deficit to a surplus in 2025, with the expected annual surplus reduced compared to the April report. The weekly global oil inventory decreased by 0.9%, and the destocking rate in the second quarter was 0.4%, lower than expected. Short - term factors support oil prices, but medium - term supply - demand pressure limits upside [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, and the Singapore low - sulfur marine fuel spread rose by $3.5 per ton last week. However, the low - sulfur cracking spread may decline due to factors such as the widening east - west spread and domestic capacity expansion. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak but has offsetting factors, and its cracking spread will oscillate at high levels [2] Asphalt - The profit of asphalt is prominent, and the domestic refinery utilization rate increased by 5.8% to 35% this week, with an expected decline next week. The weekly asphalt shipment was 392,000 tons, an increase of 49,000 tons. The overall inventory decreased significantly, and it is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The CIF price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas has dropped, and there is still pressure from concentrated arrivals in the first half of May. The import cost support has weakened, and the refinery gas price has been lowered. The PDH operating rate declined last week, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term, with the disk oscillating weakly downward [4]