Sugar Market - Brazil exported 1.7376 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of January, with an average daily export of 108,600 tons [2] - In January 2025, Brazil's sugar export volume is projected to be 2.0622 million tons, with a daily average of 93,700 tons [2] - Domestic sugar prices are slightly down, with Guangxi Sugar Group quoting between 5,250 to 5,320 CNY/ton and Yunnan Sugar Group between 5,120 to 5,170 CNY/ton, both down by 10 CNY/ton [2] - Raw sugar remains in the range of 14.5 to 15 cents per pound, with no significant breakthroughs expected [2] - As the holiday approaches, domestic spot transactions are slowing down, but market consensus suggests effective cost support, limiting the potential for significant price declines [2] - Short-term outlook is for price fluctuations, while medium-term focus will be on import rhythms to assess the possibility of forming a mid-term bottom [2] Cotton Market - ICE cotton rose by 1.29% to 63.78 cents per pound, while Zhengzhou cotton futures fell by 0.38% to 14,565 CNY/ton, with a decrease in open interest by 9,225 contracts to 786,700 contracts [8] - The cotton price index for 3128B is at 15,535 CNY/ton, down 25 CNY/ton from the previous day [8] - Internationally, macroeconomic disturbances are increasing, with a greater than 95% probability of no interest rate cuts in January, and expectations for the first rate cut of the year pushed to June [8] - Domestic cotton market shows limited pre-holiday demand from textile enterprises, with raw material inventory levels at moderately high levels [8] - Cotton inventory is at a yearly high, with increased imports leading to ample supply, making it difficult for prices to sustain upward momentum [4][8] - The overall expectation is for cotton prices to remain volatile before the holiday, with medium to long-term prospects still looking promising [4][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish rebound [1] - PP: Bearish rebound [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX/PTA: Oscillating strongly [2] - Ethylene glycol: Oversold rebound [2] - Methanol: Cautiously avoid shorting [2] - Urea: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX/PTA, ethylene glycol, methanol, urea, natural gas, asphalt, glass, and soda ash. It provides core views and main logics for each product, considering factors such as supply - demand, cost, inventory, and geopolitical situations [1][2][6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 2.08%, Brent down 2.91%, and domestic SC up 1.18%. As of January 16, US crude oil inventories rose by 3.6 million barrels to 426.04 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 5.97 million barrels to 256.9 million barrels, distillate inventories rose by 3.35 million barrels to 132.5 million barrels, and strategic crude oil reserves increased by 0.8 million barrels to 414.5 million barrels [7][8][10]. - **Main Logic**: Short - term, the recent cold snap in the Northern Hemisphere drove up natural gas prices, which in turn led to an oil price rebound. The Middle East geopolitical situation has eased but remains uncertain. In the off - season, there is an oversupply of crude oil, with global crude oil inventories accelerating the accumulation, putting significant downward pressure on oil prices [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production and pressing down prices, so oil prices will enter a low - price range. Short - term, it is expected to rebound, but bearish in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of SC [430 - 440] [11]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On January 22, the PG main contract closed at 4,120 yuan/ton, up 1.38% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,480 (+10) yuan/ton, 4,428 (-39) yuan/ton, and 4,815 (-25) yuan/ton respectively [12][13]. - **Main Logic**: The price is mainly determined by the cost of crude oil, and crude oil prices are bearish in the long - term. In terms of supply - demand, the commodity volume remains stable, downstream chemical demand weakens, and inventories accumulate, making the LPG fundamentals bearish [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the oversupply of upstream crude oil, the price center is expected to continue to decline, and there is still room for LPG price compression. Pay attention to the range of PG [3050 - 3150] [15]. L - **Market Performance**: The L05 closing price was 6,666 yuan/ton, up 0.4%. The L05 basis was - 176 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 28 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Main Logic**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina has no obvious pressure. In the short - term, it fluctuates strongly following the chemical sector. Linear production scheduling has increased, but the spot price has not risen enough, and the basis continues to weaken. The device restart plan has increased this week, and the operating rate has risen to 85%. It is the off - season for agricultural film demand, and the terminal restocking is not sustainable. There is insufficient upward driving force in the fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the impact of the expected tax reform on naphtha tariffs on the olefin industry chain [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of L [6700 - 6950] [19]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 closing price was 6,624 yuan/ton, up 2.1%. The PP05 basis was - 65 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 34 yuan/ton [21][22]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - term, it fluctuates strongly following the chemical sector. The cost of propylene maintains an upward trend. Pay attention to the impact of changes in naphtha consumption tax on the olefin industry chain. The fundamentals show weak supply and demand. In January, the demand side is gradually entering the off - season, and downstream restocking power is insufficient. The shutdown ratio is 19%, and the short - term supply pressure is relieved. PDH profits are compressed and remain at a low level, increasing the expectation of maintenance. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of PP [6600 - 6750] [23]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 closing price was 4,743 yuan/ton, down 1.3%. The V05 basis was - 243 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 118 yuan/ton [24][25]. - **Main Logic**: Social inventories are hitting new highs, and it is rising following the chemical sector. The spot price of liquid caustic soda has been falling continuously, and the comprehensive gross profit in Shandong has been compressed again. The cost support of marginal devices has improved. The FOB price of Tianjin calcium carbide method has decreased. In 2025, the export growth rate was 47%. There is a short - term phenomenon of rushing to export, but there is an expectation of weakening supply - demand in the long - term, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to reverse. The main strategy is positive arbitrage between months. The fundamentals maintain a weak reality pattern. The domestic operating rate has increased to 80%, and both domestic and foreign demand are in the seasonal off - season, with no upward driving force [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of V [4750 - 4950] [26]. PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: As of January 16, TA05 closed at 5,018 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 58 yuan/ton. The TA5 - 9 spread was 44 yuan/ton, and the PTA spot processing fee was 401.6 yuan/ton [27][28]. - **Main Logic**: In terms of valuation, it is not low. The PTA processing fee has been repaired. On the supply side, domestic devices are overhauled as planned, and the overall overhaul intensity is high. On the demand side, downstream demand is seasonally weak, and polyester factories have announced overhaul plans for January and February. In terms of inventory, PTA accumulates inventory seasonally in January and February, but the pressure is not large. The cost side, PX, is in a weak balance [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term driving force is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for TA05. Pay attention to the range of TA05 [5260 - 5450] [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG05 closing price was 3,614 yuan/ton. The EG05 basis was - 101 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 104 yuan/ton [30]. - **Main Logic**: From a valuation perspective, it is relatively low. On the supply side, the domestic operating load has generally increased. Overseas devices have some changes and high overhaul expectations. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and polyester factories have announced overhaul plans for January and February. The port inventory is rising, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January and February. It follows the cost fluctuation in the short - term and operates in a range [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG05 [3820 - 3890] [32]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The methanol comprehensive profit was - 215.5 yuan/ton, at the 16.0% quantile level in the past six months, and the East China basis strengthened [35]. - **Main Logic**: The valuation is not low. On the supply side, the comprehensive profit has weakened, and the operating load of domestic methanol devices has declined from a high level. Overseas devices have generally reduced their loads. The expected arrival volume in January is about 850,000 tons, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. On the demand side, it has weakened slightly. The cost support is weakly stable. The supply - demand of methanol is slightly loose, and there is a game between weak reality and strong expectation [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The expected arrival volume in January is 850,000 tons, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. The demand side is suppressed by the weak olefin market. Pay attention to the range of MA05 [2230 - 2280] [37]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The main contract of urea closed at 1,801 yuan/ton, and the Shandong small - particle basis was - 31 yuan/ton. The UR5 - 9 spread was 29 yuan/ton, and the weighted comprehensive profit was 60.20 yuan/ton [38][40]. - **Main Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The comprehensive profit is good, and the operating rate of coal - based and gas - based urea devices has increased. The warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period. The short - term demand is strong, and the winter storage is progressing steadily. The exports of urea and fertilizers are relatively good but declining month - on - month. The social inventory is still at a relatively high level. Under the background of "export quota system" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the urea price has a ceiling and a floor. The downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the support may weaken [39][40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The benefit of winter storage is relatively limited, the supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is seasonally weak during the festival. The support from compound fertilizer demand is limited. Overseas natural gas price surges may affect the domestic market. Pay attention to the range of UR05 [1770 - 1800] [41]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On January 22, the NG main contract closed at 3.529 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 10.87% month - on - month. The US Henry Hub spot price was 4.350 (+0.810) US dollars/million British thermal units, the Dutch TTF spot price was 14.659 (+1.336) US dollars/million British thermal units, and the domestic LNG market price was 3,828 (+29) yuan/ton [42][43]. - **Main Logic**: Recently, the cold snap in the Northern Hemisphere has led to a significant drop in temperature, boosting the demand side and driving up the gas price. The domestic LNG retail profit is 336 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the natural gas production has increased year - on - year, and the number of US natural gas rigs has decreased. On the demand side, the proportion of natural gas heavy - duty trucks in the actual sales of heavy - duty trucks from January to November 2025 was 26.00%. The US natural gas inventory has decreased [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, the demand for combustion and heating increases, supporting the gas price. However, the supply side is relatively sufficient, so the upward space of the gas price may be limited. Pay attention to the range of NG [4.866 - 5.496] [45]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On January 22, the BU main contract closed at 3,242 yuan/ton, up 2.69% month - on - month. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 3,080 (+10) yuan/ton, 3,200 (+0) yuan/ton, and 3,180 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [46][47]. - **Main Logic**: The increase in buyers of Venezuelan crude oil exports and the decrease in discounts for domestic sales support the asphalt price. The asphalt comprehensive profit is 62 yuan/ton. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt refinery production plan is 1.023 million tons, a decrease of 3.3% month - on - month and 9.1% year - on - year. In 2025, the asphalt import and export volumes increased year - on - year. The social inventory of 70 sample enterprises has increased [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still about 200 yuan/ton of compression space. The supply - side uncertainty has increased. Pay attention to the range of BU [3150 - 3250] [49]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 closing price was 1,039 yuan/ton, down 1.6%. The FG05 basis was - 28 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [51][52]. - **Main Logic**: The enterprise inventory has increased from a decline. It is the seasonal off - season for demand, and there is no upward driving force. Before the cold repair is further realized, it should be treated bearishly. The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, with the daily melting volume remaining at 150,700 tons. The weak demand suppresses the upward space [53]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of FG [1030 - 1080] [53]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 closing price was 1,185 yuan/ton, up 1.9%. The SA05 basis was - 28 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [55][56]. - **Main Logic**: Upstream production enterprises maintain a high operating rate, and the in - factory inventory is slowly decreasing from a high level. The daily melting volume of float glass has been declining continuously, and the demand for heavy soda ash is insufficient. The second - phase 2.8 million - ton device of Yuanxing has been put into production, and the short - term device restart has increased, with the capacity utilization rate rising to 84%. The real - estate demand is continuously weak, and the cold - repair expectation of float glass has increased. The demand support is insufficient. Before the overhaul is further intensified, it should be treated bearishly [57]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of SA [1170 - 1220] [57].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This cycle, domestic cis - butadiene rubber production remains at a high level. The cis - butadiene market is boosted by the sharp rise in raw material prices, and the sales of production enterprises have improved. However, there is some inventory that has been sold but not picked up, so the overall inventory level has limited changes [2]. - The continuous strength and rapid price increase of raw materials have led to a significant increase in the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber. Affected by the downstream resistance to high prices, downstream may maintain rigid demand procurement. It is expected that the inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises may increase in the short term [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production during the cycle, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. As the maintenance devices gradually resume, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week [2]. - The short - term fluctuation range of the br2603 contract is expected to be between 11,700 and 12,500 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 70. The position of the main contract is 95,318, with an increase of 72,576 [2]. - The synthetic rubber 2 - 3 spread is - 65 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 30. The total number of warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 6,530 tons, with an increase of 2,000 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50. The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 [2]. - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 11,950 yuan/ton, with no change. The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 120 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 105. The price of Brent crude oil is not clearly stated in terms of change, and the new price is not given in a complete comparison [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 63.87 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.53. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 725 US dollars/ton, with no change. The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,105 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 6.75 [2]. - The market price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,475 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 25. The price of WTI crude oil is 59.5 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.38 [2]. - The butadiene production capacity this week is 15.93 million tons/week, with no change. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene this week is 71.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14 [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 41,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,400. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.57%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.37 [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.01 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.75. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber this week is 79.15%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.97 [2]. - The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber this week is - 335 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 669. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.31 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 [2]. - The manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 26,350 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 50. The trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 6,770 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 410 [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 65.89%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.46. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 58.02%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.53 [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with an increase of 59. The monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with an increase of 663 [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 44.62 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.43. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 47.36 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.31 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - According to Longzhong Information statistics, in December, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 14.36 million tons, an increase of 1.35 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.97% [2]. - In December, the capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 72.13%, an increase of 4.65 percentage points from the previous month and a decrease of 2.68 percentage points from the same period last year [2]. - As of January 7, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 3.31 million tons, a decrease of 0.04 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08% [2].

Report Date - The report is dated January 12, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This period, domestic cis - butadiene rubber production remained at a high level. The cis - butadiene market was boosted by a significant rise in raw material prices, and producers' sales improved. However, there was some inventory of sold but undelivered products, and the overall inventory level changed little. The continuous strength and rapid price increase of raw materials led to a significant increase in the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber. But due to the downstream's resistance to high prices, they may maintain just - in - time procurement. It is expected that the inventory of producers and trading enterprises may increase in the short term. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production during the cycle, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. With the gradual resumption of maintenance devices, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. The short - term fluctuation range of the br2603 contract is expected to be between 11,700 - 12,500 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 12,070 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract was 22,742, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,597. The synthetic rubber 2 - 3 spread was - 35 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses was 4,530 tons, with no week - on - week change [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai was 11,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong was 12,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was - 15 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil was 63.34 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.35 US dollars/barrel; Naphtha CFR Japan was 551.25 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10.5 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 725 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,105 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 US dollars/ton; WTI crude oil was 59.12 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.36 US dollars/ton; the market price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 159,300 tons, with no week - on - week change; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 71.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 41,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,400 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 54.57%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.37 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 130,100 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 79.15%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.97 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 335 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 669 yuan/ton; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,400 tons; the producer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 26,350 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 50 tons; the trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6,770 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 410 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 65.89%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.46 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 58.02%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.53 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 1.301 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 59,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 5.831 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 663,000 pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 44.62 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.43 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 47.36 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.31 days [2] Industry News - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points. In December, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 143,600 tons, an increase of 13,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. In December, the capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 72.13%, an increase of 4.65 percentage points from the previous month and a decrease of 2.68 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 7, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 33,100 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08%. Recently, there have been few shutdowns of domestic cis - butadiene plants, and the supply has remained high. The cis - butadiene market has been boosted by the sharp rise in raw material prices, and the sales of producers have improved [2] Key Points of Attention - There is no news today. The br2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,500 in the short term [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market has large sentiment fluctuations, and it is expected that benzene and styrene will mainly fluctuate [3]. - The Asian benzene market is affected by factors such as the strength of US benzene prices, downstream styrene market support, and market sentiment, maintaining a volatile state. The supply can meet the demand, and the overall demand is stable while overseas demand is weak [77]. - The Asian styrene market has rebounded, but high inventory and weak overseas demand still limit its upward space [126]. - The overseas benzene and styrene markets are both facing the dual pressures of improved supply and weak demand in the short - term, and the profitability is under pressure [68][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The economic situation of styrene producers in Asia has recovered but remains negative. The spread between styrene and naphtha is $290, and the spread between styrene and benzene is stable at $165 [3]. - **Demand**: As of January 5, 2026, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 318,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.00% and a year - on - year increase of 71.71%. From December 29 to January 4, the estimated arrival was about 25,000 tons and the pick - up was about 7,000 tons [3]. - **Inventory**: As of January 5, 2026, the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 132,300 tons, a decrease of 4.68% from the previous period. The commercial inventory was 77,300 tons, a decrease of 7.20% from the previous period [3]. - **Basis**: The styrene basis has slightly strengthened. Overseas demand for blending oil has weakened, and Trump's foreign policy significantly affects oil prices. Attention should be paid to changes in cost support [3]. - **Profit**: The spread between styrene and naphtha is $290, and the spread between styrene and benzene is stable at $165. Styrene profit has slightly recovered [3]. - **Valuation**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene are at historical lows. Overseas export demand is driving up prices, and the market is paying attention to the strengthening of basis and monthly spread performance [3]. - **Macro Policy**: Trump is planning to dominate the Venezuelan oil industry, which may lower oil prices. If successful, the US will control most of the oil reserves in the Western Hemisphere and gain an important say in the final flow of crude oil [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach. Pay attention to geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Fundamentals Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Crude Oil**: Trump's policy changes significantly affect oil prices [5]. - **Styrene**: Non - integrated styrene unit profits are average, and styrene profits have relatively expanded [14][23]. - **Pure Benzene**: Pure benzene inventory remains at a high level [32]. 3.3 Polymer Demand Overview - **Styrene Downstream - ABS**: In the off - season, demand is weak, and ABS profits are shrinking [46]. - **Styrene Downstream - PS**: PS production margins are weak, and demand is difficult to follow up [59]. - **Styrene Downstream - EPS**: EPS prices are at a low level, and inventory continues to accumulate [69]. - **Pure Benzene - Aniline**: Aniline production has declined, and margins have rebounded [79]. - **Styrene Overseas**: The overseas styrene market is in a post - holiday slump. Profits are expected to be negative in early 2026, and production is restricted by cost pressure [87]. - **Phenol**: Phenol port inventory remains at a low level [88]. - **Adipic Acid**: Adipic acid profits are low [99]. - **Caprolactam**: Caprolactam production load has declined, and inventory has been depleted [111]. - **Appliance Production**: Refrigerator and freezer production schedules and household air - conditioner production schedules are provided, but no specific analysis is given [122][124].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The supply of domestic butadiene rubber is expected to continue increasing due to sufficient resources at the spot end and increased production loads of some manufacturers. Meanwhile, downstream demand is affected by maintenance and production control, and the inventory level may further rise this week. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week but may slightly rebound this week. The short - term price of the br2603 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,700 - 12,300 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,155 yuan/ton, and the position volume is 33,981 (a decrease of 3,312). The 2 - 3 spread of synthetic rubber is - 30 yuan/ton, and the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 4,560 tons with no change [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from different manufacturers increased. The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,750 yuan/ton (a rise of 150 yuan/ton), and that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,800 yuan/ton (a rise of 100 yuan/ton). The basis of synthetic rubber is - 305 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 60.7 dollars/barrel (a decrease of 1.06 dollars/barrel), and the price of WTI crude oil is 57.13 dollars/barrel (a decrease of 1.19 dollars/barrel). The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 745 dollars/ton, the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 534.25 dollars/ton, the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 985 dollars/ton (a rise of 10 dollars/ton), and the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,150 yuan/ton (a rise of 200 yuan/ton) [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons with no change, and the capacity utilization rate is 71.17% (a rise of 0.56 percentage points). The port inventory of butadiene is 44,700 tons (an increase of 1,400 tons), and the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric - vacuum distillation unit is 54.94% (a decrease of 1.28 percentage points). The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 13.01 million tons (a decrease of 0.75 million tons), the weekly capacity utilization rate is 76.76% (a rise of 0.5 percentage points), the weekly production profit is 334 yuan/ton. The social inventory of butadiene rubber is 34,500 tons (an increase of 500 tons), the manufacturer's inventory is 26,300 tons, and the trader's inventory is 7,180 tons (an increase of 1,490 tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.301 million pieces, and that of semi - steel tires is 5.831 million pieces (an increase of 0.663 million pieces). The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 3.27 days, and those of semi - steel tires are 47.05 days (an increase of 0.19 days). As of January 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.53% (a decrease of 3.83 percentage points compared with the previous period and an increase of 11.05 percentage points year - on - year), and that of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 57.93% (a decrease of 3.76 percentage points compared with the previous period and an increase of 1.37 percentage points year - on - year) [2]. Industry News - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire sample enterprises decreased because some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday and continued production control. In December, the output of butadiene rubber was 143,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. The capacity utilization rate was 72.13%, a month - on - month increase of 4.65 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.68 percentage points. As of December 31, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 33,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.07% [2]. Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to sufficient spot resources and increased production load of some manufacturers, the supply continues to increase, and downstream parking and maintenance affect short - term raw material procurement. It is expected that the inventory level will further rise this week. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday and continued to control production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. With the resumption around the 4th, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may rise slightly this week. - The BR2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,200 yuan/ton in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,830 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan; the position of the main contract is 37,293 lots, down 2,944 lots. - The synthetic rubber 2 - 3 spread is - 25 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 4,560 tons, unchanged. [2] 3.2. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical in different regions is 11,600 - 11,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 80 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; Brent crude oil is 61.76 US dollars/barrel, up 1.01 US dollars; Naphtha CFR Japan is 522.5 US dollars/ton, down 7.63 US dollars. - The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 745 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR China price of butadiene is 975 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; WTI crude oil is 58.32 US dollars/barrel, up 1 US dollar; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 8,950 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. [2] 3.3. Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate is 71.17%, up 0.56 percentage points. - The port inventory of butadiene is 44,700 tons, up 1,400 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.94%, down 1.28 percentage points. - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 13.01 million tons, down 0.75 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 76.76%, up 0.5 percentage points. - The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is 334 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the weekly social inventory is 3.45 million tons, up 0.05 million tons. - The weekly manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber is 26,300 tons, down 2,550 tons; the weekly trader inventory is 7,180 tons, up 1,490 tons. [2] 3.4. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 47.05 days, up 3.27 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 47.05 days, up 0.19 days. [2] 3.5. Industry News - As of January 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.53%, down 3.83 percentage points month - on - month and 11.05 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 57.93%, down 3.76 percentage points month - on - month and up 1.37 percentage points year - on - year. - In December, the output of butadiene rubber was 14.36 million tons, up 1.35 million tons month - on - month (10.38%) and 1.97% year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate was 72.13%, up 4.65 percentage points month - on - month and down 2.68 percentage points year - on - year. - As of December 31, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 3.35 million tons, down 0.10 million tons (3.07%) from the previous period. [2]

Group 1: Liquidity and Market Conditions - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index is at 47.15 for December 2025, a month-on-month decrease of 10.19% [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.1 percentage points in November 2025, a month-on-month decrease of 1.10 percentage points [4] - The current price of London gold is $4,533 per ounce [4] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Weekly price changes include rebar at -1.20%, cement price index at -0.49%, rubber at +1.00%, coke at -3.40%, coking coal at -0.14%, and iron ore at -0.63% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, and asphalt operating rates changed by +0.01 percentage points, -0.90 percentage points, and -2.3 percentage points respectively [5] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - The price of titanium dioxide increased by 0.77% week-on-week, while flat glass prices remained unchanged; the gross profit for titanium dioxide is -1,744 yuan per ton, and the operating rate for flat glass is 73.89% [6] Group 4: Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel at -0.51%, copper at +5.84%, and aluminum at +1.01%, with corresponding gross profit changes showing a turnaround to profit for some [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is at 72.05%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points [7] Group 5: Subcategory Prices - The price of tungsten concentrate reached a new high since 2012 at 460,500 yuan per ton, an increase of 6.35% week-on-week [8] - The price of graphite electrodes is 19,000 yuan per ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 2,060.56 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.98% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 22,060 yuan per ton, with a calculated profit of 4,918 yuan per ton (excluding tax), an increase of 6.72% [8] Group 6: Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.02 this week [10] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 10 yuan per ton [10] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 430 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton [10] Group 7: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in November is 47.60%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points month-on-month [11] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is 1,146.67 points this week, an increase of 1.95% [11] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 75.30%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points [11] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.95%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being chemicals at +4.23% [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 is 28.64% and 95.13% respectively [12] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector is 0.50, with a historical high of 0.82 reached in August 2017 [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that coking coal futures are experiencing low volatility, with the main contract reported at 1085.5 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of 1.05% [1] - As of November 25, coal inventory at northern ports (excluding Huanghua Port) reached 23.98 million tons, an increase of 8.56% compared to the same period last month [2] - The coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 5.68 million tons, up 2.71% year-on-year, while Caofeidian Port's coal outflow was 523,000 tons, marking an increase of 8.96% [2] Group 2 - As of November 21, the total coking coal inventory across 16 national ports was 4.569 million tons, a decrease of 313,000 tons; specifically, the inventory at North China ports was 2.43 million tons, down 40,000 tons [2] - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 71.10%, unchanged from the previous period; total coking coal inventory was 8.8922 million tons, down 335,600 tons, with available days of coking coal at 13.4 days, a decrease of 0.4 days [2] - One德期货 notes that macroeconomic disturbances are present, with terminal demand under pressure, yet downstream coal procurement demand remains consistent, leading to a notable rise in coal stock prices [2]