宝城期货能化板块数据周报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 10 月 10 日 能化板块 核心观点 能源化工：受美国联邦政府陷入"停摆"影响，节后国内外原 油期货价格呈现偏弱格局。其中，国内原油期货 2511 合约跌幅较大。 在弱势成本因素凸显的背景下，拖累其他能源化工商品期货也出现弱 势下行的走势。除了成本因素外，其他商品受库存回升压制，继续维 持偏弱姿态运行。短期来看，成本因子依然是决定后市能化商品走势 的重要因素，预计在原油期货价格偏弱拖累下，下周能化商品期货板 块或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 10 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研 ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 10 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | ...

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/10/09 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/30 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/29 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/26 | -100.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/25 | -95.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2025/10/09 2025/09/30 2025/09/29 2025/09/26 ...

日期 2025 年 9 月 30 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 聚烯烃日报 行业 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for September 30, 2025, covering multiple commodity sectors including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] Group 2: Power Coal - The power coal data shows the basis from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The basis gradually decreased from -95.4 yuan/ton on September 23 to -102.4 yuan/ton on September 29, while the spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month remained 0.0 [2] Group 3: Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - For energy commodities, data on fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt are presented. The basis and price ratios of these commodities changed from September 23 to September 29, 2025. For example, the basis of INE crude oil was 15.24 yuan/ton on September 23 and 13.03 yuan/ton on September 29 [7] Chemical Commodities - In the chemical sector, the basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP are provided. The basis of these commodities fluctuated from September 23 to September 29, 2025. For instance, the basis of rubber decreased from -825 yuan/ton on September 23 to -825 yuan/ton on September 29 [9] - The cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads of chemical commodities are also given. For cross - period spreads, different spreads such as 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month are shown for various chemicals. For cross - variety spreads, spreads like LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol are presented with their values changing from September 23 to September 29, 2025 [11] Group 4: Black Metals - The black metal data includes cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads, as well as basis data. For cross - period spreads, values for 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month(10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month(10) minus 5 - month are given for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal. For cross - variety spreads, ratios such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil are presented. The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal also changed from September 23 to September 29, 2025 [20][21] Group 5: Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - In the domestic non - ferrous metal market, the basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are provided from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The basis values of these metals fluctuated during this period [28] London Market - In the London market, data on LME non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are presented. Information such as LME forward premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss are given for September 29, 2025 [33] Group 6: Agricultural Products - The agricultural product data includes basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads. For basis, values of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. are shown from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The cross - period spreads are calculated for different months (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 5 - month) for various agricultural products. The cross - variety spreads such as the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn, soybeans No.2 to corn, etc. are also presented with their values changing over the period [38] Group 7: Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures data includes basis and cross - period spreads. The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The cross - period spreads of the next - month minus the current - month and the next - quarter minus the current - quarter are given for these stock index futures [49]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-9-29 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，8月份，官方PMI为49.4，比上月上升0.1个百分点，财新PMI50.4，较 前月上升0.6个百分点，制造业景气度有所改善。8 月以美元计价的中国出口额为3218.1 亿美元， 同比增长4.4%，较 7 月有所回落。原油近期价格震荡。9月19日晚，中美领导人通话同意平等磋 商妥善处理经贸等领域分歧。供需端，下游逐渐转向旺季，管材、塑编等需求均出现增长，长假 临近，建议谨慎操作为主。当前PP交割品现货价6780（+30），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： PP 2601合约基差-113，升贴水比例-1.6%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PP综合库存52.0万吨（-3.0），中 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, but with the Fed's rate cut and conflicting outlooks, and prices at historical highs, there are risks of a market peak. For precious metals, it is recommended to partially close long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options before the holiday. For other commodities, trading strategies vary based on their respective fundamentals [1]. - The supply and demand of various commodities show different characteristics. For example, some have tight supply, while others face oversupply or weak demand, which affects their price trends and trading strategies [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: The international gold price settled at $3789 per ounce, up 0.25%. The US government shutdown risk increased, consumer spending in the US in August was strong, and Chinese industrial enterprise profits rose significantly. Gold ETF funds flowed in. There is a risk of a market peak, and it is recommended to partially close long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options before the holiday [1]. - **Silver**: It followed gold to reach a new high. It is also recommended to partially close positions before the holiday [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price rose and then fell on Friday. The supply is tight, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue to be strong in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to buy on dips. The price of alumina is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [2][3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is supported by high demand. It is expected to oscillate before the lithium mine in Jiangxi is put into production, and it is advisable to consider a call option strategy before the holiday [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price is expected to oscillate between 49,000 - 54,000 yuan. Pay attention to the 11 - 12 spread [3]. - **Tin**: It is recommended to maintain a bullish and volatile view [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited, with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to short the rebar 2501 contract [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand is moderately strong. It is recommended to wait and see and hold long positions in the iron ore - coking coal - coke ratio [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to short the coking coal 2501 contract and hold long positions in the iron ore - coking coal - coke ratio [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybeans are weak, and the domestic market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The mid - term unilateral focus is on Sino - US tariff policies [5]. - **Corn**: The new crop is expected to increase in production, and the cost has decreased significantly. The futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [5]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to buy on dips, with a strategy in the range of 13,300 - 13,800 yuan/ton [6]. - **Palm Oil**: It is in a high - level oscillation, and a reverse spread strategy is recommended [6]. - **Eggs**: The demand is weakening, and the futures are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - **Hogs**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or carry out a reverse spread strategy [7]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance, and it is recommended to short [8]. - **PTA**: The PX supply is increasing, and the PTA supply pressure is large in the long term. It is recommended to short the processing margin of the far - month contract at high prices [8]. - **Rubber**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and maintain a bullish view in the medium term [8]. - **Glass**: The seasonal improvement is obvious, and it is recommended to go long [8]. - **PP**: In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or carry out a reverse spread strategy [8][9]. - **MEG**: Due to low inventory and macro - policy disturbances, it is recommended to close short positions [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices [9]. - **Styrene**: In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or carry out a reverse spread strategy [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The main downstream unexpectedly lowered the purchase price, and it is recommended to wait and see [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Affected by the Fed's cautious rate - cut expectations, the copper price is still on a strong trend due to tight fundamentals, though the upward momentum is weaker than the previous day [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: With supply and demand gradually tightening, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the short term, supported by the peak - season and pre - holiday stocking expectations [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: The supply - demand of crude oil is weakening. It is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - to - long term [12]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner due to high supply - demand pressure of crude oil and limited follow - up of spot prices [13][14]. - **PP**: PP is expected to fluctuate as the peak - season demand falls short of expectations and there is no actual anti - involution policy [15]. - **Plastic**: The plastic market is expected to fluctuate as the peak - season demand is underwhelming and no anti - involution policy has been implemented [17]. - **PVC**: PVC is expected to face downward pressure in the near term as downstream pre - holiday stocking ends and new capacity comes on stream [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: Attention should be paid to the price transmission between upstream and downstream after the price increase and the macro - market during the National Day holiday [20]. - **Urea**: The urea market is in a state of bottom - grinding with weak fundamentals and limited upward momentum [21][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: As of September 26th, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Red dates rose nearly 3%, and silver rose over 2%, while coke and coking coal fell over 2% [6]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:16 on September 26th, funds flowed into CSI 1000 2512, silver 2512, and CSI 500 2512, while flowing out of SSE 50 2512, copper 2511, and iron ore 2601 [7]. 3.2 Individual Commodity Analysis - **Copper**: The supply of refined copper remains tight due to smelter overhauls and reduced scrap copper supply. The demand is driven by pre - holiday replenishment [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is affected by the reduction of lithium mica - sourced production, and the demand for pre - holiday stocking is ending [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ production adjustment will increase the pressure in Q4. The travel peak season is over, but there are factors such as geopolitical risks and inventory changes [12]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is restricted by funds and weather. The cost support is strengthening, but the follow - up supply - demand pressure of crude oil is high [13][14]. - **PP**: The downstream开工率 is rising, but the peak - season demand is weak. There are new capacity releases and inventory reduction by petrochemical enterprises [15]. - **Plastic**: The开工率 is increasing, and the agricultural film is entering the peak season, but the peak - season effect is not obvious [17]. - **PVC**: The supply is increasing, the export expectation is weakening, and the inventory pressure is high. The cost support is strengthening [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: The mine output is increasing, and the downstream inventory is piling up. Attention should be paid to the price increase and holiday market [20]. - **Urea**: The daily output is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high [21][22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The economic data in July - August reveals a complex macro - economic situation. There is pressure of marginal slowdown in economic growth, but counter - cyclical policies are in place. The stock market is strong, and the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed restarted the interest - rate cut cycle in September, but the path of future rate cuts is uncertain [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to fluctuate between 7.09 - 7.15 this week. The strong US economic data supports the US dollar index and increases the uncertainty of the Fed's future rate - cut path [4][5]. - The stock index is under pressure due to the weakening expectation of the Fed's rate cut. However, there is support from positive policies, so the downside space is limited [6]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile. Policy support exists, and operations should focus on oversold rebounds [7]. - The shipping index (European line) futures price is generally rising, driven by the increase in quotes by MSC and the closing of short positions by some investors [8][9]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term. Gold is likely to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and silver may rise further if it breaks through key levels. It is recommended to hold light positions during the National Day holiday [10][12]. - The supply - side shortage has significantly pushed up the copper price. The long - term shutdown of Freeport's Grasberg mine will impact the global copper supply chain [13]. - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, alumina is likely to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [15][16][17]. - Zinc is expected to have its center of gravity move down slowly. It is recommended to buy in - the - money put options or sell out - of - the - money call options [18]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be strong in the short - term, affected by supply concerns in the nickel ore market and the rise in cobalt prices [18][19]. - Tin is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait for opportunities for long positions [20]. - Carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton before the National Day holiday [21][22]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of "strong expectation, weak reality". It is recommended to be cautious when participating in polysilicon investment [23][24]. - Lead is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The short - term contradiction lies in raw materials, and it is necessary to observe the demand's acceptance of prices [26]. - Steel products face problems of high supply and insufficient demand, with pressure on de - stocking. However, there is support from raw material replenishment before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the risk of negative - feedback production cuts after the holiday [27][28]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate. The supply is at a medium - to - high level, and the demand is in a tight balance due to pre - holiday replenishment by steel mills [29][30]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to be affected by the "anti - involution" policy. It is not recommended to short coking coal. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday and relevant policies [31][32]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have cost support, and the downside space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price levels [33][34]. - Crude oil is rebounding driven by geopolitical risks, but the upside space is limited in the absence of major geopolitical events. The long - term trend may be weak [35][36]. - LPG is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic supply is controllable, and the chemical demand is temporarily strong [37][38]. - PX - PTA is recommended to be cautiously bought. The polyester demand is seasonally strong but lacks sustainability, and the supply - side contradictions may be alleviated [40][41]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate between 4150 - 4300 yuan. It is recommended to wait for market drivers [44]. - Methanol is recommended to hold short - put options. The main contradiction lies in the port, and the 01 contract has limited upside potential [45][46]. - PP's downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to device changes and opportunities for long positions at low prices [48][49]. - PE is expected to fluctuate. The supply may increase, and the demand recovery is slow, but the downside space is limited due to macro - expectations and low valuations [51][52]. - Pure benzene is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and the demand is uncertain [53]. - Styrene has more supply disturbances. The supply is expected to increase after September, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to observe and consider widening the spread between pure benzene and styrene [54]. - Fuel oil is recommended to be observed due to concerns about supply reduction from Russia. The supply is expected to increase slowly, and the demand is stable [55]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil is currently weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is sluggish [56][57]. - Asphalt is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by weather and funds, and the inventory is improving [58][59]. - Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the price is restricted by high inventory [60]. - Glass is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall. The supply - side may have uncertainties, and the demand is weak in the short - term [61]. - Caustic soda's spot price is weakening. The supply is fluctuating due to maintenance, and the demand varies by region [62]. - Pulp is recommended to be bought at low prices in the futures market and to sell out - of - the - money put options in the options market [63][64]. - Logs are recommended to use the interval grid strategy and the covered put strategy [66][67]. - Propylene is expected to fluctuate. The futures market is consolidating, and the cost pressure on the demand side still exists [68][69]. - Pigs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices due to high supply [70][72]. - Oils are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the far - month rising opportunities of palm oil and the widening of the rapeseed oil 15 - spread [73]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The US Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 3.8%, and the weekly initial jobless claims decreased. The Fed's future rate - cut path is uncertain, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in October has cooled [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. The strong US economic data supported the US dollar index, and the RMB is expected to fluctuate between 7.09 - 7.15 this week [3][4][5]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index was under pressure due to the weakening expectation of the Fed's rate cut. The CSI 300 index rose, and the trading volume increased [5]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market was volatile. The 30 - year Treasury bond trading was crowded, and the policy was supportive. It is recommended to buy on dips with proper position control [6][7]. - **Container Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) futures prices rose. MSC raised its quotes, and the market was affected by pre - holiday capital fluctuations [8][9]. Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices showed different trends. Silver, platinum, and palladium rose strongly. It is recommended to hold light positions during the National Day holiday [10]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose significantly due to the supply - side shortage caused by the accident at Freeport's Grasberg mine [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, alumina is likely to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [15][16][17]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to have its center of gravity move down slowly. It is recommended to buy in - the - money put options or sell out - of - the money call options [18]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be strong in the short - term, affected by supply concerns in the nickel ore market and the rise in cobalt prices [18][19]. - **Tin**: Tin is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait for opportunities for long positions [20]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton before the National Day holiday [21][22]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of "strong expectation, weak reality". It is recommended to be cautious when participating in polysilicon investment [23][24]. - **Lead**: Lead is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The short - term contradiction lies in raw materials, and it is necessary to observe the demand's acceptance of prices [26]. Black Commodities - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel products face problems of high supply and insufficient demand, with pressure on de - stocking. However, there is support from raw material replenishment before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the risk of negative - feedback production cuts after the holiday [27][28]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to fluctuate. The supply is at a medium - to - high level, and the demand is in a tight balance due to pre - holiday replenishment by steel mills [29][30]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke are expected to be affected by the "anti - involution" policy. It is not recommended to short coking coal. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday and relevant policies [31][32]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have cost support, and the downside space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price levels [33][34]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil is rebounding driven by geopolitical risks, but the upside space is limited in the absence of major geopolitical events. The long - term trend may be weak [35][36]. - **LPG**: LPG is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic supply is controllable, and the chemical demand is temporarily strong [37][38]. - **PTA - PX**: PX - PTA is recommended to be cautiously bought. The polyester demand is seasonally strong but lacks sustainability, and the supply - side contradictions may be alleviated [40][41]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate between 4150 - 4300 yuan. It is recommended to wait for market drivers [44]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is recommended to hold short - put options. The main contradiction lies in the port, and the 01 contract has limited upside potential [45][46]. - **PP**: PP's downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to device changes and opportunities for long positions at low prices [48][49]. - **PE**: PE is expected to fluctuate. The supply may increase, and the demand recovery is slow, but the downside space is limited due to macro - expectations and low valuations [51][52]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Pure benzene is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and the demand is uncertain. Styrene has more supply disturbances. The supply is expected to increase after September, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to observe and consider widening the spread between pure benzene and styrene [53][54]. - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is recommended to be observed due to concerns about supply reduction from Russia. The supply is expected to increase slowly, and the demand is stable [55]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is currently weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is sluggish [56][57]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by weather and funds, and the inventory is improving [58][59]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the price is restricted by high inventory [60]. - **Glass**: Glass is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall. The supply - side may have uncertainties, and the demand is weak in the short - term [61]. - **Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda's spot price is weakening. The supply is fluctuating due to maintenance, and the demand varies by region [62]. Others - **Pulp**: Pulp is recommended to be bought at low prices in the futures market and to sell out - of - the - money put options in the options market [63][64]. - **Logs**: Logs are recommended to use the interval grid strategy and the covered put strategy [66][67]. - **Propylene**: Propylene is expected to fluctuate. The futures market is consolidating, and the cost pressure on the demand side still exists [68][69]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: Pigs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices due to high supply [70][72]. - **Oils**: Oils are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the far - month rising opportunities of palm oil and the widening of the rapeseed oil 15 - spread [73].

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 26 日 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 | 表1：期货市场行情 | ...