投资咨询中心 期现日报 2026年1月13日 | 品种 | 今收 | 昨结 | 漆跌 | 流鉄幅 | 成交量 | 增成 | 持仓堂 | 仓差 | 投机度 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹主力2605 | 3158 | 3158 | 0 | 0.00% | 837,879 | -119, 553 | 1,687,943 | -38,760 | 0. 50 | -0.06 | | 螺纹指数 | 3160. 11 | 3160. 1 | 0. 01 | 0.00% | 924. 770 | -147, 051 | 2, 290, 118 | -31,888 | 0. 40 | -0.06 | | 热卷王力2605 | 3303 | 3300 | -3 | -0. 09% | 404, 061 | -4.668 | 1, 440, 250 | 12,752 | 0. 28 | -0. 01 | | 热卷指数 | 3301.98 | 3305. 48 | -3.5 | -0.11% | 469. ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2026 年 1 月 13 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | | | 5月-1月 | | 9月-1月 9月-5月 | | 2026/01/12 | -101 | 4 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 0 0 . . | | 2026/01/09 | -102 | 4 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 0 0 . . | | 2026/01/08 | -104 | 4 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 0 0 . . | | 2026/01/07 | -108 | 4 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 0 0 . . | | 2026/01/06 | -113 | 4 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 0 0 . . | www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 期货研究报告 二、能源化工 www.bcqh ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed a mixed trend on January 12, 2026, with some commodities rising significantly and others declining [5]. - Different commodities have their own supply - demand situations, and factors such as macro - economy, policy, and geopolitics affect their prices, with different price trends expected for each commodity. 3. Summary of Each Commodity Metals - **沪铜**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is low, short - term macro support for Shanghai copper is weak. The supply side may face production cuts, the demand side has strong terminal demand but weak copper product demand, showing a structure of strong expectation and weak reality, with a medium - to - long - term upward trend after a phased correction [8]. - **碳酸锂**: Affected by the export tax - rebate adjustment, the market has a strong expectation of rush - export, driving the futures price to rise sharply. In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to be strong under the stimulation of rush - export, but the potential negative impact of CATL's resumption of production needs to be noted [10]. - **焦煤**: The spot price of coking coal is relatively stable, the supply side has an increase in production, and the demand side has a recovery in demand from coking enterprises and steel mills. The price is expected to be volatile and strong, but chasing high prices has risks [21][22]. Energy - **原油**: OPEC + maintains the production plan, the demand is in the off - season, and the market is in a supply - surplus pattern. Geopolitical factors such as the situation in Iran and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation affect the price, which is expected to fluctuate [11][13]. - **沥青**: The supply is expected to decrease, the demand in the north is affected by the end of construction, and the demand in the south is average. Geopolitical events in Venezuela affect the raw material supply, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate greatly, with the far - month asphalt/near - month crude oil showing a strong and volatile trend [14]. Chemicals - **PP**: The downstream开工率 is low, the supply has new capacity and a decrease in maintenance, the demand is in the off - season. The macro - environment is positive, but the improvement of the supply - demand pattern is limited, and the upward space is limited. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [15][16]. - **塑料**: The开工率 is at a medium level, the downstream demand of agricultural film is in the off - season, the supply has new capacity, and the upward space is limited. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17][19]. - **PVC**: The supply side has an increase in开工率, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is high, and there may be a rush - export phenomenon before the cancellation of export tax - rebates. The 3 - 5 contracts are expected to be strong and volatile [20]. - **尿素**: After a continuous rise, it enters a correction stage. The supply side has an increase in daily output, the demand side has weak support, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the past five years. It is expected to be weak in the short - term [23]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures all rose, with the CSI 1000 rising the most at 3.75% [5][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all had different degrees of increase or remained flat, with the 30 - year rising the most at 0.30% [6].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-1-12 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，12月份，官方12月制造业PMI为50.1%，较上月上升0.9个百分点，时隔 8个月重回扩张区间。OPEC+1月4日发表声明， 8个主要产油国决定，维持2025年11月初制定的产 量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂停增产。近日伊朗政局动荡，引发市场对伊朗原油供应中断的 担忧，推动国际油价反弹。供需端，农膜方面，棚膜需求回落，地膜需求抬头，包装膜企业订单 及开工有所提升。当前LL交割品现货价6600（-20），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-74，升贴水比例-1.1%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存42.5万吨（+2.6），中 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2026 年 1 月 12 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2026/01/09 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2026/01/08 | -104.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2026/01/07 | -108.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2026/01/06 | -113.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2026/01/05 | -116.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 期货研究报告 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2026/01/09 2026/01/08 2026/01/07 2026/01/06 2026/0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 9, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, shows that the basis was negative, ranging from - 123.4 yuan/ton on December 31, 2025, to - 104.4 yuan/ton on January 8, 2026. The spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month were all 0.0 [1][2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, are presented, with values varying over different dates. For example, the basis of INE crude oil was 48.88 yuan/ton on January 8, 2026 [6] - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, shows different values. For instance, the basis of rubber was - 270 yuan/ton on January 8, 2026 [8] - Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of LLDPE was 223 yuan/ton [10] - Inter - variety spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, are given. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 1730 yuan/ton on January 8, 2026 [10] 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of rebar was 172.0 yuan/ton on January 8, 2026 [20] - Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rebar was 55.0 yuan/ton [19] - Inter - variety spreads for the ratio of rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, coke to coking coal, and rebar minus hot - rolled coil from December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, are given. For example, the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 3.87 on January 8, 2026 [19] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of copper was 600 yuan/ton on January 8, 2026 [29] - **London Market**: Data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on January 8, 2026, are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was 16.75 [32] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 307 yuan/ton on January 8, 2026 [39] - Inter - period spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 64 yuan/ton [39] - Inter - variety spreads for the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn, soybeans No.2 to corn, soybean oil to soybean meal, soybean meal minus rapeseed meal, soybean oil minus palm oil, rapeseed oil minus soybean oil, and corn minus corn starch from December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, are given. For example, the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.95 on January 8, 2026 [38] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 was 19.25 on January 8, 2026 [50] - Inter - period spreads for the next - month minus the current - month and the next - quarter minus the current - quarter of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next - month minus the current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 12.4 [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report is a daily data report on futures variety arbitrage from Baocheng Futures, covering multiple futures varieties including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. It provides data on basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for different trading dates [1][2][8][10][18][19][20][28][31][38][49]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - The report presents the basis and inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of thermal coal from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026. During this period, the basis gradually increased from - 131.4 yuan/ton to - 108.4 yuan/ton, while the inter - month spreads remained at 0.0 [1][2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - It provides basis data for fuel oil, crude oil/asphalt, and INE crude oil from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, along with price ratios for some commodities [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The report shows the basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026. For example, the basis of rubber decreased from - 370 yuan/ton to - 430 yuan/ton [8]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: It presents the inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol [10]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3*methanol) for different dates from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are provided [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are given. For example, the basis of rebar decreased from 186.0 yuan/ton to 153.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, 9(10) - 5) for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. Note that the main contract months of rebar are January, May, and October [19]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads (rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, rebar - hot - rolled coil) for different dates from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are provided [19]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are shown. For example, the basis of copper increased from - 1600 yuan/ton to 480 yuan/ton on January 7, 2026 [28]. 3.4.2 London Market - The report provides data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on January 7, 2026 [31]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data for soybeans No. 1, soybeans No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No. 1 decreased from - 204 yuan/ton to - 324 yuan/ton [38]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) for multiple agricultural products such as soybeans No. 1, soybeans No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given [38]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads (soybeans No. 1/corn, soybeans No. 2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, corn - corn starch) for different dates from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are provided [38]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are shown. For example, the basis of CSI 300 increased from 12.69 to 23.67 on January 7, 2026 [49]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented [49].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2026 central bank work meeting confirmed a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the "integrated effect" of incremental and stock policies, which provides support for the economy and enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets. However, geopolitical conflicts and Fed policy uncertainty pose potential risks [2]. - In the short term, the stock index is expected to be strong, but there may be a phased correction due to local over - heating. The bond market may need to find a bottom, and if the stock market corrects, it may help the bond market stabilize [5][7][8]. - The shipping index (European line) is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with risks of insufficient actual cargo volume support. The far - month contract is suppressed by the resumption of navigation and off - season expectations [13]. - For new energy products, lithium carbonate has long - term value support and opportunities to build long positions on dips. Industrial silicon has limited downside space and is suitable for building long positions in far - month contracts. The spot price of polysilicon has risen, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of prices and terminal winning bids [17][19]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper prices are in an accelerating upward phase, aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, zinc may reach a short - term top, nickel - stainless steel may be strong in the short term but with callback risks, tin has limited upside space, and lead is expected to fluctuate [24][25][28]. - In the oilseeds and fats market, oilseeds show a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Fats are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [31][34]. - The asphalt crack spread may be strong in the short term due to supply disruptions [36][37]. - For precious metals, platinum and palladium may face short - term correction risks due to index parameter adjustment, while gold and silver are in an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall pattern in the short term and are bullish in the medium - to - long term [40][43]. - In the chemical industry, pulp and offset paper prices have risen, and it is advisable to wait and see. LPG is supported in the short term by geopolitics but is under pressure in the long term. PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips are affected by geopolitical disturbances and cost fluctuations. Methanol is likely to start an upward trend. PP and PE have short - term improvements in fundamentals but face Spring Festival inventory accumulation pressure. Pure benzene - styrene is running strongly, and rubber is expected to fluctuate widely [46][49][52][54][57][60][63][65][70]. - For black commodities, steel prices are expected to fluctuate, iron ore is running strongly, coking coal and coke may rebound, and ferroalloys may be under pressure to suppress the upward rhythm [80][82][84][86]. - In the agricultural and soft commodities market, cotton is affected by supply - demand expectations and policy adjustments, sugar is in a strong - side - oscillating pattern, rubber is expected to fluctuate widely, apples are running strongly, dates are in a low - level oscillation, and logs follow an interval trading strategy [90][92][96][99][101][103]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, using tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The Fed's policy and the Venezuelan situation may affect the market. The internal "policy integration" and external geopolitical disturbances create structural opportunities in the market [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Before the release of the US December ADP employment data, the US dollar index is oscillating. The RMB is relatively strong, and the central bank shows an intention to stabilize the exchange rate. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at 7.02, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at 6.96 [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is strong, but there may be a phased correction due to local over - heating. The short - term is expected to be strong [5][7]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is under pressure. If the stock market corrects, it may help the bond market stabilize. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and try to buy on dips in the short term [7][8]. - **Container Shipping (European Line)**: The shipping index futures rose on January 2. The market is in a game between pre - Spring Festival and price increase implementation. The short - term is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the actual cargo volume support and resumption of navigation [9][11][13]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures limit up, and the spot trading weakens. In the long - term, there is value support, and it is advisable to build long positions on dips [15][17]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The prices of downstream products have risen. Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak situation but has a low - risk long - position value. The spot price of polysilicon has risen, and attention should be paid to price sustainability and terminal winning bids [18][19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is in an accelerating upward phase. The futures market has net capital inflows. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 90000 - 100000 range and be cautious about new long positions above 100000 [22][24]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, alumina is expected to oscillate, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong. The core factors include funds and supply - demand expectations [25][26]. - **Zinc**: It may reach a short - term top. The short - term is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 24600 [27]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It rose strongly. The short - term may be strong due to Indonesian supply policy expectations, but there are callback risks [27][28]. - **Tin**: It is not recommended to short in the short term, and the upside space is limited. It is expected to be volatile and strong before the sentiment fades [29][30]. - **Lead**: It rose with the sector. It is expected to oscillate, and the price may fall after the sentiment fades [30]. Oilseeds and Fats - **Oilseeds**: It shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The supply pressure in Brazil next year suppresses the main contract, but there is a short - term supply gap. It is recommended to hold a 35 positive spread [31][33]. - **Fats**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. The fundamentals affect the price ratio, and attention should be paid to production areas and biodiesel information [34]. Energy and Oil & Gas - **Asphalt**: The supply is disturbed, and the short - term crack spread may be strong. The conflict between the US and Venezuela may affect the supply of heavy - crude oil and thus the price of asphalt [36][37]. Precious Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: They rose strongly. In the short term, beware of the selling pressure caused by index parameter adjustment. In the medium - to - long term, the price center is expected to rise [40][41]. - **Gold & Silver**: They are approaching the previous high. In the short term, it is easy to rise and hard to fall. In the medium - to - long term, they are bullish, and corrections are opportunities to add long positions [42][43]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The spot price of pulp has risen, and the futures price is affected by spot support and overall commodity sentiment. The price of offset paper futures is rising, and it is advisable to wait and see [45][46]. - **LPG**: It is supported by geopolitics in the short term but is under long - term pressure. Attention should be paid to overseas events and domestic PDH maintenance [47][49]. - **PTA - PX**: It is affected by geopolitical disturbances and cost fluctuations. PTA is expected to have a tight supply - demand pattern in the first half of 2026, and PX is expected to be in short supply in the second quarter [50][52]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: It rebounded due to geopolitical speculation. The demand side is under pressure, and the inventory is high. The rebound is likely to be phased [53][54]. - **Methanol**: It is likely to start an upward trend. The change in inventory accumulation expectations is the main factor, and attention should be paid to the restart of Fude and the reduction of Iranian imports [55][57]. - **PP**: The short - term fundamentals have improved, and the Spring Festival inventory accumulation pressure exists. It is expected to oscillate [58][60]. - **PE**: It is rising from the bottom. The supply pressure is relieved, but the demand support is insufficient. It is in a supply - demand reduction pattern [61][63]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: It is running strongly, affected by geopolitical pricing and capital allocation. The fundamentals are improving but are still in the off - season. Do not chase the high [64][65]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely. The short - term may be strong, but there are callback risks. Pay attention to the pressure levels of different contracts and the RU - BR spread [66][70][72]. - **Soda Ash & Glass & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash has a surplus expectation, glass has high inventory and cold - repair expectations, and caustic soda is in a wide - range oscillation [73][75][76]. - **Propylene**: It is supported by cost in the short term, but the upside space is limited due to the loose supply - demand situation [77][78]. Black Commodities - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices are expected to oscillate. The fundamentals of steel products have little contradiction, but there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in the future [80]. - **Iron Ore**: It is running strongly. The high supply and rigid demand balance each other, and the price is affected by macro expectations [81][82]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They rebounded strongly. The inventory structure of coking coal has improved, and the supply pressure in January may ease. The coking profit of coke is under short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the downstream steel mill's复产 elasticity [83][84]. - **Ferroalloys**: They rose due to electricity price news. The production has increased, and the inventory is accumulating. The upward rhythm may be suppressed, but the downside space is limited [85][86][87]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Cotton**: The short - term is affected by supply - demand expectations and policy adjustment expectations. Pay attention to the cotton planting industry chain conference in Xinjiang and beware of price corrections. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [89][90][91]. - **Sugar**: It is in a strong - side - oscillating pattern. Pay attention to the trend of raw sugar [92][94]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely. The short - term may be strong, but there are callback risks. Pay attention to the pressure levels of different contracts and the RU - BR spread [94][96][98]. - **Apple**: It is running strongly. The shortage of delivery products is expected to push up the prices of near - and far - month contracts [99][100]. - **Date**: It is in a low - level oscillation. The short - term price may be stable, and the long - term supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure [101][102]. - **Log**: It is oscillating. The 03 contract can adopt an interval trading strategy of buying low and selling high in the 760 - 790 range [103][104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data from Baocheng Futures on January 7, 2026, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of various futures products including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - The basis data of thermal coal from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are - 131.4, - 131.4, - 123.4, - 116.4, - 113.4 yuan/ton respectively, and the 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads are all 0.0 [1][2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented, such as the basis of INE crude oil being - 5.19 yuan/ton on January 6, 2026 [6] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are provided. For example, the basis of rubber on January 6, 2026, is - 400 yuan/ton [8] - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For instance, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber is 35 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, on January 6, 2026, LLDPE - PVC is 1648 yuan/ton [9] 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar is 33.0 yuan/ton [18] - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, on January 6, 2026, rebar/iron ore is 3.89 [18] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are given. For example, the basis of rebar on January 6, 2026, is 159.0 yuan/ton [19] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of copper on January 6, 2026, is - 1600 yuan/ton [28] 3.4.2 London Market - The LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on January 6, 2026, are provided. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper is 2.98 [31] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on January 6, 2026, is - 196 yuan/ton [37] - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 is 61 [37] - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, on January 6, 2026, soybeans No.1/corn is 1.92 [37] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on January 6, 2026, is 12.69 [48] - **Inter - period**: The next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 is - 10.6 [48]

Report Overview - The report is a daily analysis of core futures varieties, released on January 6, 2025, covering various commodities in the domestic futures market [3]. Market Performance Futures Market Summary - As of the close on January 6, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. Lithium carbonate hit the daily limit, silver futures rose over 7%, platinum over 6%, palladium over 5%, and tin, copper, international copper, and nickel futures rose over 4%. PVC, aluminum, methanol, and apple futures rose over 3%. In terms of declines, plywood fell over 1%, and coke and logs declined slightly. Stock index futures generally rose, while treasury bond futures mostly fell. In terms of capital flow, silver 2604, CSI 2603, and SSE 50 2603 had capital inflows, while gold 2602, apple 2605, and crude oil 2602 had outflows [6][7]. Commodity Analysis Copper - A strike at a Canadian copper mine in Chile is expected to cut production by 70%. In 2026, copper smelters face profit challenges in long - term contracts, with by - products like sulfuric acid and gold becoming key profit sources. China's electrolytic copper production in 2024 increased both monthly and annually. Demand from downstream copper products is mixed, with the copper foil market being strong. Geopolitical factors and supply - demand dynamics support copper prices in the long - term, but short - term corrections are possible [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rose sharply and hit the limit due to positive news, including price increases by two phosphate - iron - lithium companies. However, the supply - demand structure remains unchanged, with production increasing in December 2025 and downstream demand contracting. The market is in a stage of strong expectations but weak reality, so a price drop should be guarded against [11]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to maintain the output plan in February and March 2026. The US crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, but refined oil inventory increased. The US production is at a high level. Geopolitical factors, such as the US - Venezuela conflict and the EU's sanctions on Russia, bring uncertainties. The market is in a supply - surplus situation, but geopolitical events may stimulate price hikes [12][13]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate declined last week, and the January 2026 production plan is lower than the previous month and the same period last year. The downstream demand is affected by funds and weather. The US military action in Venezuela may affect the supply of heavy oil for domestic refineries. The price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [14][16]. PP - The downstream PP operating rate is at a low level, and the enterprise operating rate and the production ratio of standard products have decreased. The inventory is at a neutral level. With an oversupply of crude oil and weak prices, the new production capacity and declining downstream orders limit the upward space of PP prices. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17]. Plastic - The plastic operating rate decreased on January 6. The downstream PE operating rate is low, with the agricultural film season ending. The inventory is at a neutral level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the weak demand limits the upward space of plastic prices. The L - PP spread is expected to fall [18][19]. PVC - The PVC operating rate increased, but the downstream operating rate decreased. The export price declined, and the social inventory is high. The real estate market is still in adjustment. New production capacity has been added, and it is recommended to wait and see during the traditional demand off - season [20]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices fell on the day. The coking coal options will be listed on January 16, 2026. The supply may decrease as some mines approach the end - of - year production target, and the Mongolian coal imports will slow down. The downstream demand is weak, and the overall supply - demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the linkage effect of the black series [22]. Urea - Urea prices rose and then fell. The upstream factories raised prices due to positive market sentiment. The supply is abundant, with production resuming. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is limited by environmental protection. The inventory is decreasing, but the market may be over - rising, so a correction should be guarded against [23][25].