商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | | 市场表现：周一贵金属价格震荡，市场逐步消化鲍威尔讲话。 | | | | | | | 金 | | 基本面：特朗普政府据称考虑因数字服务法制裁欧盟官员。国内黄金 ETF | 资金小幅流出，COMEX | | | 黄金库存 | | | 属 | 1199 | 吨，维持不变；上期所黄金库存 37 吨，维持不变；伦敦 7 月黄金库存 | 8774 | 吨；上期所白银库存 | | | 1113 | | | 吨，增加 | 4 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1289 吨，减少 64 吨，COMEX | 白银库存 | 15823 | 吨，增加 7 | | 吨；伦 | | | 敦 7 | 月白银库存增加 408 吨至 24196 吨；印度 6 月白银进口约 200 | 吨左右。全球最大白银 | | etf--iShares | | 持有 | | | 量为 | 15288 吨，增加 11 吨。 | | | | | | | | | 交易策略： ...

日期 2025 年 8 月 26 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 聚烯烃日报 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | ...

2025年08月25日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：周五贵金属大幅反弹，鲍威尔讲话引发市场巨震。 | | | | | | 金 | 基本面：鲍威尔央行年会上讲话，称劳动力市场指标稳定使联储能谨慎考虑政策调整，基准前景和风险平衡 | | | | | | 属 | 变化可能需要联储调整政策立场；不过周末美联储官员古尔比斯讲话重提关注通胀问题。国内黄金 | | 资金 | ETF | | | | 小幅流出，COMEX 黄金库存 1199 吨，维持不变；上期所黄金库存 37 吨，增加 1 吨；伦敦 7 月黄金库存 | 8774 | | | | | | 吨；上期所白银库存 1109 吨，减少 6 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1289 吨，减少 64 吨，COMEX | | | | 白银库 | | | 存 15816 吨，维持不变；伦敦 7 月白银库存增加 408 吨至 24196 吨；印度 6 月白银进口约 200 吨左右。全 | | | | | | | 球最大白银 etf- ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 日期 2025 年 8 月 22 日 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information was provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, industrial products, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It emphasizes the importance of considering multiple factors such as supply - demand dynamics, seasonal patterns, and policy changes when making investment decisions. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum price rose slightly. Supply capacity increased, and demand showed signs of improvement. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Alumina**: The price increased. Supply capacity continued to rise, and there was an oversupply pressure. It is advisable to sell call options if holding spot [2]. - **Zinc**: The price increased. Supply increased significantly, and demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to sell on rallies [2]. - **Lead**: The price decreased. Supply and demand were both weak, with a slight inventory build - up. Interval trading is suggested [2]. Industrial Products - **Silicon**: The price declined. Supply increased, and demand improved marginally. The market is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price dropped sharply. Supply and demand are expected to be tight from August to October. Due to large - scale outflow of long - speculating funds, the price is volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The price decreased. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to buy on dips [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price rose slightly. Supply and demand are balanced with structural differentiation. It is recommended to take profit on the 10/1 reverse spread and wait and see on the single - side [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price increased. Supply and demand are moderately strong with a weakening margin. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The price increased. Supply and demand are relatively loose with improving fundamentals. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The price changed little. Supply may shrink in the short - term and increase in the long - term. Demand has differences. The domestic price is expected to follow the international cost - end and fluctuate strongly [6]. - **Corn**: The price fluctuated narrowly. Supply increased, and demand was weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. - **Cotton**: The price fluctuated strongly. International production has differences, and domestic demand showed signs of recovery. It is recommended to buy on dips [6][7]. - **Palm Oil**: The price declined. Supply is in the seasonal increase period, and demand improved. The short - term trading is difficult, and the long - term outlook is tight [7]. - **Eggs**: The price fluctuated. Supply was sufficient, and demand may increase seasonally. The futures price is expected to be weak [7]. - **Hogs**: The price was weak. Supply was sufficient, and demand is expected to recover. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price first fell and then rose. Supply increased, and demand improved. In the short - term, it will fluctuate, and in the long - term, it is advisable to short far - month contracts on rallies [8]. - **PTA**: The price was stable. PX supply is at a high level, and PTA supply is at a low level. It is recommended to go long on PX and short PTA processing fees or far - month contracts [8][9]. - **Rubber**: The price first fell and then rose. Supply increased, and demand was for rigid replenishment. It is recommended to buy on dips after a pull - back [9]. - **PP**: The price first fell and then rose. Supply increased, and demand is expected to improve. In the short - term, it will fluctuate weakly, and in the long - term, short far - month contracts on rallies [9]. - **MEG**: The price was stable. Supply and demand were in a tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Styrene**: The price rebounded slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to improve. In the short - term, it will fluctuate, and in the long - term, short far - month contracts on rallies [9][10].

Report Overview - This is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for August 21, 2025, covering multiple commodities including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Not provided in the report Summary by Commodity Category Thermal Coal - The report presents the basis and spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of thermal coal from August 14 to 20, 2025. The basis values are -106.4, -103.4, -100.4, -99.4, -97.4 for respective dates, while all spreads are 0.0 [2] Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - Data on basis, price ratios, and related indicators of energy commodities such as fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from August 14 to 20, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on August 20 was 136.18 yuan/ton [7] Chemical Commodities - The basis, spreads, and cross - commodity spreads of chemical commodities (rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, PP, etc.) are provided. For instance, the basis of rubber on August 20 was -1075 yuan/ton [9][11] Black Metals - The report shows the cross - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) and cross - commodity spreads (such as screw/ore, screw/coke) of black metals including rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal. The basis data from August 14 to 20, 2025 are also presented [20][21] Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) from August 14 to 20, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of copper on August 20 was 30 yuan/ton [28] London Market - Data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit/loss of non - ferrous metals in the London market on August 20, 2025 are provided [35] Agricultural Products - The basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - commodity spreads of agricultural products (soybean No.1, soybean No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc.) are presented. For example, the basis of soybean No.1 on August 20 was 4284.54 yuan/ton [39] Stock Index Futures - The basis and cross - period spreads of stock index futures (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on August 20 was 1.40 [51][53]

Report Overview - Report Date: August 21, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Polyolefin Daily Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The chemical industry is undergoing adjustments to address over - capacity. The futures market of polyolefins shows a weak trend with cautious trading. The supply - side pressure of PP is increasing as more devices restart, while the supply of PE is relatively neutral. The downstream consumption shows some improvement but has a weaker outlook compared to the same period last year. Polyolefins are expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the demand improvement and inventory reduction in the second half of the month [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market Quotes**: The prices of plastic and PP futures contracts generally rose. For example, plastic 2601 closed at 7347 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (0.37%); PP2601 closed at 7056 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (0.40%) [3]. - **Market Situation**: The futures market remained weak, with cautious trading. Traders offered discounts, and downstream buyers mainly purchased at low prices. The upstream device operating rate continued to increase. The supply - side pressure of PP increased due to the restart of devices, and the supply of PE was relatively neutral. The downstream operating rates of some industries increased, but the peak - season expectations were weaker than last year [4]. 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: On August 20, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 78.5 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons (1.88%) from the previous working day, compared with 79.5 tons in the same period last year [5]. - **PE Market**: The PE market price was weakly adjusted. The LLDPE prices in North, East, and South China were in the ranges of 7130 - 7430 yuan/ton, 7240 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 7380 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively [5]. - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 6380 - 6400 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. Some restarted devices led to sufficient supply, and producers slightly lowered prices to promote sales [5]. - **PP Market**: The domestic PP market continued to decline, with a decline of 20 - 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of North, East, and South China were in the ranges of 6850 - 7000 yuan/ton, 6880 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6830 - 7080 yuan/ton respectively [6]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides data on futures market quotes, including opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, and open interest changes of different plastic and PP futures contracts [3]. - There are also some figures related to inventory, such as two - oil inventories and their year - on - year changes, but specific data is not described in detail in the text [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector, guiding investors to make decisions based on different market conditions. Summary by Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: On Tuesday, precious metals declined. London gold dropped 0.52% to $3315 per ounce. The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold. Due to rumors of canceling export tax - rebates for photovoltaic modules, silver exports may increase, and it is advised to wait and see [1]. - **Silver**: The iShares silver ETF holdings decreased by 17 tons to 15339 tons. The inventory of silver in some regions changed, and it is recommended to wait and see due to potential export demand increase [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price oscillated weakly. Due to concerns about Powell's hawkish speech and overall market risk - appetite decline, the short - term driving factors are unclear, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum contract price fell. With supply increasing and demand slightly improving as the peak season approaches, it is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. - **Alumina**: The alumina contract price declined. With increasing production capacity and surplus pressure, the price is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to sell call options if holding spot [2]. - **Zinc**: The zinc 2509 contract price dropped. Supply increased significantly, and it is in the consumption off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices [3]. - **Lead**: The lead 2509 contract price rose slightly. The supply and demand situation is complex, and it is recommended to trade within a range [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price oscillated. The supply increased slightly, and the demand marginally improved. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to Xinjiang's production plan [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate contract price fell. Supply may be in short - supply from August to October, and demand is in the peak season. It is recommended to go long with a small position at low prices [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The polycrystalline silicon price oscillated. The supply may increase, and the demand is affected by the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to policy implementation [4]. - **Tin**: The tin price oscillated strongly. Considering supply and demand and inventory, it is recommended to trade with an interval - oscillation mindset [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The rebar contract price declined. The building material inventory increased, and the supply - demand is neutral - weak. It is recommended to take profit on the 10/1 reverse spread and wait and see [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore contract price decreased. The supply and demand are neutral - strong but marginally weakening. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal contract price dropped. The supply is relatively loose but improving. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [5][6]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean price continued to fall. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the domestic soybean market is affected by international factors. The short - term international market oscillates, and the domestic market follows the international cost [6]. - **Corn**: The corn 2511 contract was weak. Due to factors such as wheat substitution and increased imports, the price is expected to decline. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract price fell. Considering international and domestic supply and demand, it is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price declined. Considering international and domestic supply and demand, it is recommended to wait and see and trade within the 13800 - 14200 yuan/ton range [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price dropped. The supply and demand are both increasing, and it is recommended to close long positions in the short - term and pay attention to production and policies [6][7]. - **Eggs**: The egg 2510 contract was weak. With sufficient supply and potential demand increase, the futures price is expected to decline [7]. - **Hogs**: The hog 2511 contract oscillated narrowly. The supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to expect the futures price to oscillate strongly at the end of the month [7]. - **Apples**: The apple price oscillated. The early - maturing apple price fluctuated, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE contract price slightly declined. Supply is increasing, and demand is improving. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [8]. - **PVC**: The PVC V01 contract price fell. With potential export tariffs and increasing supply, the driving factors are unclear, and it is recommended to wait and see [8][9]. - **PTA**: The PX price is at a high level, and the PTA price is at a low level. PX is recommended to be long - allocated, and PTA can be shorted for processing fees or far - month contracts at high prices [9]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price fluctuated. With inventory reduction and strong raw material support, it is recommended to go long at low prices after a pull - back [9]. - **Glass**: The glass FG01 contract price declined. With weak supply - demand and inventory accumulation, it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **PP**: The PP contract price slightly decreased. Supply is increasing, and demand is improving with the approaching peak season. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [9]. - **MEG**: The MEG supply increased, and the inventory is at a low level. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **EB**: The EB contract price slightly declined. With potential supply increase and high downstream inventory, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA01 contract price fell. With high supply and inventory, it is recommended to wait and see due to potential production reduction [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on August 20, 2025, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][21][27][39][50] 3. Summary by Category Power Coal - **Basis Data**: From August 13 to August 19, 2025, the basis of power coal was - 108.4, - 106.4, - 103.4, - 100.4, - 99.4 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0.0 yuan/ton [2] Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - **Basis and Ratio Data**: For fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, data such as basis and ratio from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on August 19 was - 1.87 yuan/ton [7] Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: For rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP, basis data from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber on August 19 was - 1025 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber was 80 yuan/ton [11] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on August 19 was 2301 yuan/ton [11] Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: For rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, the 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month inter - period spreads are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar was 49.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The ratios of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and the spread of rebar - hot rolled coil from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are given. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on August 19 was 4.08 [20] - **Basis Data**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on August 19 was 144.0 yuan/ton [21] Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - **Basis Data**: For copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin, the basis data from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of copper on August 19 was 170 yuan/ton [28] London Market - **LME Data**: Data such as LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on August 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was (96.85) [35] Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: For soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn, the basis data from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on August 19 was - 6 yuan/ton [39] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 was 42 yuan/ton [39] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The ratios of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, and the spreads of soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the ratio of soybeans No.1/corn on August 19 was 1.86 [39] Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: For CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, the basis data from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on August 19 was 7.17 [51] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 42.6 [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold. For silver, due to the rumored cancellation of export tax - rebate policies for photovoltaic modules and increased export demand leading to inventory depletion, it is advised to wait and see [2]. - For basic metals, copper lacks a clear short - term driver and should be treated with a range - bound trading idea. Aluminum may face short - term downward pressure due to tariff policies, but its price may rise in the long - term. Alumina is expected to trade in a wide range, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support at 3150 in the short - term and go long at low prices in the long - term [2][4]. - For black industries, steel, iron ore, and coking coal markets are expected to be weak and volatile this week. It is recommended to try a reverse spread for rebar 10/1, and mainly wait and see for iron ore and coking coal [6]. - In the agricultural products market, short - term US soybeans are strong but within a trading range. Corn futures are expected to trade sideways after continuous declines. Sugar futures are recommended to go short at high prices. Cotton is recommended to be bought at low prices. Palm oil is still recommended for long - term allocation. Eggs and hogs futures are advised to wait and see [7][9]. - For energy and chemical products, LLDPE and PP are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term and it is recommended to short far - month contracts in the long - term. PVC, glass, and soda ash are advised to wait and see. Rubber is recommended to be bought at low prices with caution. Crude oil is recommended to go short at high prices near 510 yuan/barrel for the SC main contract. Styrene is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term and it is recommended to short far - month contracts in the long - term [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Market - **Market Performance**: Precious metals fluctuated on Friday, and the US - Russia talks showed no obvious results [3]. - **Fundamentals**: US retail sales increased in July, foreign investors' holdings of US Treasury bonds reached a record high, and consumer confidence unexpectedly declined. Gold and silver inventories in various regions changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see, and long at low prices in the long - term [4]. Basic Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated strongly on Friday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: US inflation expectations rose, consumer confidence was weaker than expected, the US dollar index weakened, and the domestic stock market reached a new high. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and the current demand was seasonally weak [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Treat with a range - bound trading idea in the short - term [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract on Friday increased by 0.27% compared to the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 35 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. The weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price may face downward pressure due to tariff policies, and the long - term price may rise as the demand in the peak season is expected [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract on Friday decreased by 0.66% compared to the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 60 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina continued to increase, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Alumina is expected to trade in a wide range, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support at 3150 in the short - term and go long at low prices in the long - term [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 11 contract closed at 8805 yuan/ton on Friday, up 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 2763 lots [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased slightly last week, social inventory decreased slightly, and warehouse receipt inventory increased slightly. The demand for polysilicon increased slightly, the output of silicone was flat, and the demand for aluminum alloy entered the off - season [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The trading logic is related to "anti - involution" varieties, and the demand has improved marginally. It is recommended to wait and see as the market is expected to be volatile [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2511 closed at 86,900 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1,600 yuan (+1.9%) [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The mining end of Jiaxiaowo stopped production, which will affect the monthly supply of 8000 tons of lithium carbonate from August to October. The demand for lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials is in the peak season, and the inventory decreased last week [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The current price is expected to be around 85,000 yuan/ton in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long with a small position at low prices [4]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 11 contract closed at 52740 yuan/ton on Friday, up 2310 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 10966 lots [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. The production schedule of silicon wafers and battery cells in August was in line with expectations, and the photovoltaic installation demand in the third quarter was pessimistic [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to go long with a light position on pullbacks [4]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices fluctuated strongly on Friday [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of tin ore remained tight, the current supply - demand was weak, and the market focused on the resumption of production in Wa State. The global visible inventory decreased by 210 tons last week [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Treat with a range - bound trading idea [4][5]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The rebar main 2510 contract traded sideways and closed at 3197 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of building materials is slightly weak, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply of plates is stable, and the inventory is at a low level. The overall supply - demand of steel is balanced, but there is a significant structural differentiation [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try a reverse spread for rebar 10/1, and the reference range for RB10 is 3150 - 3220 [6]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore main 2601 contract traded sideways and closed at 782.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of iron ore is slightly strong but weakening marginally. The iron - making water output increased, and the steel mill's profit decreased marginally. The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the inventory accumulation may be slower than the seasonal norm [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see mainly, and the reference range for I09 is 750 - 800 [6]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The coking coal main 2601 contract rose and closed at 1250 yuan/ton, up 21.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron - making water output decreased slightly, and the steel mill's profit decreased marginally. The fifth round of coke price increase was implemented, and the sixth round was partially implemented. The inventory at different links is differentiated, and the overall supply - demand is relatively loose but improving [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see mainly, and try to short the coking coal 2509 contract. The reference range for JM01 is 1200 - 1270 [6]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose on Friday, digesting the short - term improvement in supply - demand [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The near - term US soybean production decreased, while the long - term South American production is expected to increase. The demand in South America is decreasing, and there is a divergence in the export demand for new US soybeans [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term US soybeans are strong but within a trading range. Domestic soybeans follow the international cost side [7]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn 2509 contract continued to be weak, and the spot price of corn decreased in the Northeast and increased in the North China [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Wheat has a high cost - performance ratio and substitutes for corn in feed demand. The import of grains increases the market supply, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low. The new - crop corn cost decreases, suppressing the long - term price [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Corn futures are expected to trade sideways after continuous declines, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The ICE raw sugar 10 contract closed at 16.47 cents/pound, with a weekly increase of 1.23%. The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5656 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.63% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, Brazil's production dominates the raw sugar price. Domestically, the import of sugar pressured the spot price last week, but the price stabilized this week. The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract rebounded slightly and is expected to be weak and volatile in the future [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short at high prices in the futures market and sell call options [9]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The US cotton futures price fell on Friday, and the international crude oil price continued to weaken [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the drought - affected area in the US cotton - growing region increased. Brazil's cotton production is expected to increase. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose, and recent data adjustments were positive for cotton prices [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at low prices, with a trading strategy based on the range of 14000 - 14500 yuan/ton [9]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose on Friday due to good short - term exports [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply in Malaysia is in the seasonal growth cycle, and the demand has improved. The near - term inventory is increasing, while the long - term supply is expected to be tight [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Allocate more in palm oil, trading on the long - term tight supply expectation. Pay attention to the production in the producing areas and the biodiesel policy [9]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The egg 2510 contract was weak, and the spot price rose [9]. - **Fundamentals**: High temperatures led to a seasonal decline in the egg - laying rate of hens. The demand from food factories is expected to increase seasonally. The supply is sufficient, and the cost has decreased [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Eggs futures are expected to trade sideways after continuous declines, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Hogs - **Market Performance**: The hog 2511 contract was weak, and the spot price of hogs decreased slightly [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Consumption is gradually recovering, but the supply is sufficient due to increased slaughter in August. Pay attention to the impact of banquets at the end of the month and school - opening purchases, as well as policy trends [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term downward space for the spot price is limited after continuous declines, and it is recommended to wait and see for futures [9]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The main contract closed at 8188 yuan/ton last week, with a weekly increase of 1.37%. The apple price in Yantai, Shandong was stable [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of early - maturing apples has declined, but high - quality fruits in some areas are still expensive. The current futures market has little contradiction and is expected to trade sideways [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [10]. Energy and Chemical Products LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract fluctuated slightly on Friday. The spot price in North China was 7220 yuan/ton, and the basis was weak. The overseas price was stable, and the import window was closed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic supply increased due to new plant commissioning and the resumption of maintenance plants. The import is expected to decrease slightly. The demand for agricultural mulch is improving, while other areas' demand is stable [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term: The market is expected to be weak and volatile, and the upside is limited by the import window. Long - term: Short far - month contracts at high prices as the supply - demand pattern will be loose [10]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The v01 contract closed at 5118, up 0.1% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot trading of PVC is average, and the driving force is unclear. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is average. The social inventory has accumulated [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [10]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: The rubber price fluctuated strongly last week, and the RU2601 contract rose 0.7% and closed at 15905 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The purchase price of Thai glue was stable. The spot price increased, and the trading was light. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires decreased slightly, while that of all - steel tires increased [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is affected by various factors, and the fundamentals are strong. It is recommended to buy at low prices with caution [10]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG01 contract closed at 1232, up 1% [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The glass spot price continued to decline, and the production cut expectation is hard to verify. The supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and the inventory has accumulated [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply - demand is weak, but the downside is limited. Wait and see [11]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract fluctuated slightly on Friday. The spot price in East China was 7020 yuan/ton, and the basis was weak. The overseas price decreased slightly, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is increasing due to the resumption of maintenance plants and new plant commissioning. The demand is improving as the peak season approaches [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term: The market is expected to be weak and volatile, and the upside is limited by the import window. Long - term: Short far - month contracts at high prices as the supply - demand pattern will be loose [11]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Crude oil prices fell slightly on Friday due to the progress of the US - Russia talks and the statement that the US will not impose tariffs on China's purchase of Russian oil for the time being [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, with OPEC+ planning to increase production in September and other countries also having production increases. The demand in the US is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the refinery operating rate is at a high level [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short at high prices near 510 yuan/barrel for the SC main contract as the short - term supply shortage risk has decreased [11]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract fluctuated slightly on Friday. The spot price in East China was 7280 yuan/ton, and the trading atmosphere was average. The overseas price was stable, and the import window was closed [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene is expected to increase slightly in August. The downstream enterprises are still suffering losses, and the finished - product inventory is high but decreasing. The demand is expected to improve as the peak season approaches [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term: The market is expected to be weak and volatile, and the upside is limited by the import window. Long - term: Short far - month contracts at high prices as the supply will increase [11]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The sa01 contract closed at 1400, down 0.5% [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of soda ash declined, and the production cut expectation still exists. The supply is increasing as the summer maintenance is coming to an end, and the inventory is high. The downstream demand for photovoltaic glass is stable [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see as the production cut expectation still exists [12].