Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the close on November 19, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with some rising and some falling [6]. - The overall trend of various commodities is affected by factors such as supply and demand, production, consumption, and geopolitical situations, and most commodities are expected to show a weak - oscillating trend [9][11][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: Copper opened low and moved high, showing strength during the day. Affected by US employment data, copper prices slightly increased. With an expected increase in production and a transition from peak to off - peak demand, the fundamental situation restricts the upward space of prices [9]. - **Silver**: The main contract of Shanghai silver rose more than 2%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver 2602 had an inflow of 1.733 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It opened low and moved high, rising during the day. Due to strong demand, inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the supply - demand balance pattern promotes the price to oscillate strongly, but a callback should be guarded against [11]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: It fell nearly 2% [6]. - **Coking Coal**: It opened low and moved low, falling during the day. With weakening supply - demand fundamentals and increased inventory pressure at the Mao Du Port, it is expected to run weakly [20][21]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ decided to increase production in December, which will intensify the supply pressure in the fourth quarter but reduce it in the first quarter of next year. With the end of the peak demand season and an increase in inventory, the supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is decreasing, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is at a low level. With the approach of cold weather, the demand will further decline, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. Chemicals - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate is at a low level, the supply has increased due to new production capacity and some maintenance, and the demand is in the off - peak season. With an oversupplied crude oil market, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The start - up rate has slightly increased, new production capacity has been put into operation, the demand in the north has decreased, and the downstream purchasing intention is insufficient. With an oversupplied crude oil market, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [17]. - **PVC**: The upstream price has decreased, the supply start - up rate has decreased, the downstream start - up rate is low, the inventory is high, and the market is affected by policies and other factors. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [19]. - **Urea**: It opened high and moved low, oscillating strongly. The supply is loose, the cost is rising, the demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to continue to rebound, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure level [22]. Others - **Palm Oil**: It rose nearly 2% [6]. - **Peanuts**: It fell nearly 2% [6]. - **Concentration Index (European Line)**: It fell more than 2% [6]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The main contract of CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) rose 0.49%, the main contract of SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) rose 0.55%, the main contract of CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) fell 0.02%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) fell 0.42% [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all fell [7].

Report Summary 1. Hot News - The US Patent and Trademark Office modified the transparency rules for patent invalidation applications, targeting foreign - affiliated companies, and some Chinese firms received notices. China's Ministry of Commerce responded that it violates international obligations and discriminates against Chinese enterprises, and will take measures to safeguard their rights [2] - In October, the unemployment rate of the urban labor force aged 16 - 24 (excluding students) was 17.3%, 7.2% for those aged 25 - 29, and 3.8% for those aged 30 - 59 [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will adjust the trading and intraday closing transaction fees of the lithium carbonate futures LC2601 contract to 0.012% of the trading volume starting from November 20 [2] - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 15,799,450 tons, a decrease of 20,040 tons from the previous Monday due to a decline in arrivals and unloading [2] - An 1.1 - million - ton granular urea plant in Iran's Hengam Petrochemical Project started trial production and is expected to be officially put into operation by the end of December. Iran's annual urea production capacity is about 8.9 million tons, and exports in the first nine months of this year dropped 34% due to production issues [3] 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch: urea, coking coal, soda ash, PVC, and plastics [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 3.40%, precious metals 28.63%, oilseeds 10.08%, non - ferrous metals 23.43%, soft commodities 2.63%, coal, coke, steel, and minerals 12.73%, energy 2.92%, chemicals 10.93%, grains 1.20%, and agricultural and sideline products 4.05% [4] 3. Sector Positions - The report shows the five - day changes in commodity futures sector positions for November 12 - 18 [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 0.81 | - 0.38 | 17.54 | | | SSE 50 | - 0.30 | - 0.28 | 11.85 | | | CSI 300 | - 0.65 | - 1.56 | 16.09 | | | CSI 500 | - 1.17 | - 2.46 | 24.89 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.83 | - 3.26 | 12.51 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 1.72 | 0.09 | 29.26 | | | German DAX | - 1.85 | - 3.36 | 16.30 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 3.22 | - 7.08 | 22.08 | | | FTSE 100 | - 1.27 | - 1.70 | 16.88 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury futures | 0.03 | - 0.17 | - 0.39 | | | 5 - year Treasury futures | 0.03 | - 0.14 | - 0.58 | | | 2 - year Treasury futures | 0.01 | - 0.05 | - 0.47 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.57 | 0.27 | 2.24 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 1.30 | - 0.30 | - 15.61 | | | London Spot Gold | 0.55 | 1.60 | 54.97 | | | LME Copper | - 0.75 | - 1.78 | 21.82 | | | Wind Commodity Index | - 1.89 | - 3.36 | 26.25 | | Others | US Dollar Index | 0.06 | - 0.14 | - 8.19 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 28.33 | 28.99 | [6]

| MIL. | 国技期负 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年11月18日 | | 两烯 | ★☆☆ | 聚丙烯 | ★☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 塑料 | ★☆☆ | 纯菜 | なな女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 苯乙烯 | ★☆☆ | РХ | ☆☆☆ | | | PTA | ななな | 乙二醇 | ★☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 短纤 | 女女女 | 瓶片 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 甲醇 | ☆☆☆ | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | PVC | ★☆★ | 烧碱 | ★★★ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 纯碱 | ななな | 玻璃 | な女女 | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 两烯期货主力合约日内大幅下行收跌。现货方面丙 ...

Report Overview - The report is a daily analysis of core futures varieties, released on November 18, 2025, covering the performance, market overview, and analysis of various domestic futures contracts [3]. Market Performance Futures Market Overview - As of the close on November 18, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Red dates and iron ore rose over 1%, while lithium carbonate and BR rubber rose nearly 1%. In terms of declines, coking coal fell nearly 4%, and the container shipping index (European line), coke, Shanghai silver, and double-coated paper fell over 2%. Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 (IF) main contract fell 0.41%, the SSE 50 (IH) main contract fell 0.23%, the CSI 500 (IC) main contract fell 0.85%, and the CSI 1000 (IM) main contract fell 0.69%. Among treasury bond futures, the 2-year (TS) main contract rose 0.01%, the 5-year (TF) main contract rose 0.03%, the 10-year (T) main contract rose 0.03%, and the 30-year (TL) main contract rose 0.06% [6][7]. Capital Flows - As of 15:24 on November 18, in terms of capital inflows to domestic futures main contracts, the CSI 500 2512 had an inflow of 1.722 billion yuan, the CSI 300 2512 had an inflow of 1.254 billion yuan, and the CSI 1000 2512 had an inflow of 890 million yuan. In terms of outflows, the Shanghai gold 2512 had an outflow of 3.546 billion yuan, the lithium carbonate 2601 had an outflow of 2.323 billion yuan, and the Shanghai copper 2512 had an outflow of 1.474 billion yuan [7]. Market Analysis Copper - Copper opened high and closed low, with weak intraday fluctuations. In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, affecting 48,000 tons of production. However, as some smelters resume production in October and copper prices rise, production is expected to increase. Scrap copper supply increases to make up for the shortage of copper ore resources. On the demand side, rising copper prices limit downstream consumption, and except for the power and new energy battery sectors, downstream demand is weak. The probability of a December interest rate cut has dropped significantly, causing market confidence to decline and putting pressure on the market. Copper production is expected to increase, while demand is transitioning from peak to off - peak season. Before the probability of a rate cut changes, copper prices will be weakly adjusted [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened high and closed low, showing intraday strength. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 87,400 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 85,050 yuan/ton, also up 1,250 yuan/ton. Ningde Times' Jiaxiaowo is expected to resume production after December. In October 2025, lithium carbonate production was 89,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,790 tons. As of November 14, the weekly operating rate was 75.34%, 16.34% higher than the same period last year. The domestic production of energy - storage batteries in October was 54.3 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.04%. The expected production of lithium iron phosphate in November is 405,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. The market is optimistic about energy - storage demand. Lithium carbonate inventory has been decreasing for weeks, and the number of warehouse receipts has dropped significantly. The market sentiment has been boosted, but the potential resumption of Jiaxiaowo's production is a negative factor. The strong demand drives the price to oscillate strongly, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream demand [11]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as in October and November, and will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year. Saudi Aramco has lowered the official selling price of crude oil to Asia in December. The peak demand season has ended, and US crude oil inventories have increased more than expected. US crude oil production has reached a new high. The US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, and India may reduce its imports of Russian oil. Geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Libya may disrupt supply. However, the market is worried about demand, and the supply - surplus situation in the crude oil market has become more obvious. The price of crude oil is expected to oscillate weakly [12][13]. Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0% last week, lower than the same period last year. The expected production in November is 2.228 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.0%. The downstream operating rate is mostly stable, but road construction is restricted by funds and weather. National shipments decreased by 31.02% to 213,000 tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries has slightly increased but remains at a low level. Some refineries plan to switch to producing residual oil, and demand will weaken further. With the oversupply of crude oil, the asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.14 percentage points to 53.28%, still at a relatively low level. The operating rate of the plastic - weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 44.24%. On November 18, new maintenance devices were added, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to about 82%. The production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn remained at about 24%. Petrochemical inventories are at a neutral level. Although the crude oil price rebounded after a decline, the increase is limited due to the oversupply of crude oil. New production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream orders have limited follow - up. PP is expected to oscillate weakly [16]. Plastic - On November 18, some maintenance devices of plastics restarted, and the operating rate rose to about 88%. As of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49%. The agricultural film industry is in the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level. Petrochemical inventories are at a neutral level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the operating rate has slightly increased. The peak season of the agricultural film industry is not as good as expected, and downstream procurement willingness is weak. The plastic price is expected to oscillate weakly [17][18]. PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region increased by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 78.51%, still at a relatively high level. The downstream operating rate has slightly declined. India has terminated the BIS policy on PVC, but the upcoming anti - dumping tax has made traders cautious. Social inventories have slightly decreased but remain high. The real estate market is still in adjustment, and the PVC industry lacks actual policies. The PVC price is expected to oscillate weakly [19]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened flat and closed low. The spot price in the Shanxi market increased, and the import volume in October decreased year - on - year. Although the Mongolian border will be closed for one day on November 21, the customs clearance volume remains high, and domestic coal production is increasing. Mines and coke enterprises are reducing inventories, while steel mills are increasing inventories. Coke enterprises are facing losses, and their production enthusiasm has decreased. Although steel mill production has increased, the short - term demand for coking coal is pessimistic. Coking coal is expected to be weakly adjusted in the short term, but the downside is limited due to upcoming environmental inspections [20][21]. Urea - Urea opened low and closed high, with a strong oscillation. The futures rebound has boosted market sentiment, and downstream agricultural dealers are increasing low - price fertilizer reserves. The supply is still abundant, and production is expected to increase. Coal prices are rising, but the increase is narrowing. Downstream dealers are more active in purchasing, and although the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has decreased due to environmental inspections, it is expected to improve after the inspections end. The cost is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. The international urea market has changed, and the price of urea is expected to oscillate strongly, but the upside is limited by high daily production [22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Olefins: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Report's Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend, with some products facing supply - demand imbalances and price fluctuations [2][3][5] - Some products are affected by factors such as overseas market conditions, domestic production capacity changes, and seasonal demand [2][5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures contracts declined. Propylene spot prices are supported due to restart of downstream plants and low inventory [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures declined. Supply pressure persists, but prices may rebound technically [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Overseas pure benzene rebounded, but lacks sustainability. Domestic pure benzene faces supply pressure and weak demand [3] - Styrene futures declined. Supply - demand is in tight balance, and port inventory is expected to decrease [3] Polyester - PX supports PTA prices, but demand is weakening. PTA processing margin fluctuates with PX [5] - Ethylene glycol supply is increasing, and port inventory is expected to accumulate. A bearish view is maintained [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices are weak due to high inventory and weak demand [6] - Urea prices may be strong before the Indian tender, but there is a risk of decline [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC prices declined due to weak cost support and high supply [7] - Caustic soda prices are weak due to high supply and low demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices declined due to lower cost. The long - term supply - demand is in surplus [8] - Glass prices declined. Mid - stream inventory is high, and short - term trading is recommended to be cautious [8]

行业 聚烯烃日报 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Report Date: November 17, 2025 Key Points 1. Price Range Forecast and Volatility - Urea price range forecast (monthly): 1650 - 1950, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 27.16%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 62.1% [2] - Methanol price range forecast (monthly): 2250 - 2500, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 20.01%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 51.2% [2] - Polypropylene price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 10.56%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 42.2% [2] - Plastic price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.24%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 78.5% [2] 2. Urea Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - Scenario: High finished - product inventory, worried about urea price decline. - Strategy: Short urea futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, buy put options to prevent sharp price drops, and sell call options to reduce capital costs. - Hedging tools and directions: Sell UR2601, buy UR2601P1850, sell UR2601C1950. - Hedging ratios: 25% for futures, 50% for put options, and relevant for call options. - Suggested entry intervals: 1800 - 1950 for futures, 15 - 20 for put options, 45 - 60 for call options [2] Procurement Management - Scenario: Low procurement of regular inventory, hope to purchase according to order situation. - Strategy: Buy urea futures to lock in procurement costs in advance, sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. - Hedging tools and directions: Buy UR2601, sell UR2601P1650. - Hedging ratios: 50% for futures, 75% for put options. - Suggested entry intervals: 1650 - 1750 for futures, 20 - 25 for put options [2] 3. Core Market Analysis - Core contradiction: In November, high urea daily production under policy support and profit repair pressures prices, but export policy adjustments relieve the pressure, and rising coal prices also support urea. The market is in a range between fundamentals and policy, with short - term prices expected to oscillate [3] - Bullish factors: Urea exports are confirmed. Futures are expected to show wide - range oscillations with stronger downside support due to speculative pricing [4] - Bearish factors: Domestic policy pressure requires factories to sell urea at low prices, negatively affecting spot sentiment [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report As of November 14, 2025, the domestic futures market shows a mixed performance. Some commodities like apples and soybeans have risen, while others such as methanol and glass have declined. Different commodities face various supply - demand situations, influenced by factors such as production, consumption, policies, and geopolitical events. Most commodities are expected to show weak and volatile trends due to factors like supply - demand imbalances, uncertain policies, and market sentiment [5][6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: Supply is affected by smelter maintenance and policy - related procurement issues, with a decrease in the overall smelter operating rate. Demand is weak, with a decline in downstream copper product operating rates and an increase in inventory. The market is concerned about the uncertainty of the December interest - rate cut in the US, and the domestic fundamentals are weak, but the tight copper ore supply provides some support [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price has increased slightly. Supply shows growth, with an increase in domestic production and a decrease in imports from Chile. Demand is strong, driven by the energy - storage battery market. The supply - demand situation is tight, and the market is expected to remain strong after a correction [10]. - **Aluminum**: No relevant information provided. - **Nickel**: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of declining commodities [5]. - **Tin**: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of declining commodities [5]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to increase production in December, which will increase the supply pressure in the fourth quarter but reduce it in the first quarter of next year. Saudi Aramco has lowered the official selling price. Demand has entered the off - season, and the overall inventory is increasing. The US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the situation of Russian oil exports needs to be monitored. The market is expected to be in a supply - surplus situation, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [11][13]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of rising commodities [5]. - **Bitumen**: Supply has decreased, with a decline in the operating rate and production volume. Demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather, and it is expected to weaken further. The supply - surplus situation of crude oil has led to a decline in prices, and the bitumen futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [14]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of declining commodities and as a contract with significant capital inflow [5][6]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The downstream operating rate is low, and the production proportion of standard products has decreased. Supply has increased with new capacity and some maintenance. The cost is affected by the supply - surplus situation of crude oil. The market lacks large - scale procurement, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The operating rate has decreased, and the downstream operating rate is also low. Supply has increased with new capacity. The cost is affected by the supply - surplus situation of crude oil. The demand in the peak season is not as expected, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [17]. - **PVC**: The supply operating rate has decreased, and the downstream operating rate has also declined slightly. The export situation is affected by policies, and the inventory is still high. The real - estate market is in the adjustment stage, and the price is expected to be in a state of shock adjustment [19]. Agricultural Products - **Apples**: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of rising commodities [5]. - **Soybeans**: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of rising commodities and as a contract with significant capital inflow [5][6]. Others - **Coking Coal**: The price has increased slightly. Supply has increased with the recovery of Mongolian coal imports and domestic production. The inventory situation varies among different sectors. The demand is affected by the weakening profitability of steel mills, and the market is expected to weaken [20][21]. - **Urea**: The price has remained stable with a slight decline. Supply has increased with new production capacity. The demand is affected by environmental inspections and the off - season of agricultural demand. The inventory is decreasing, and the market is expected to be in a short - term strong adjustment [22]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 have all declined [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year contract has declined slightly, the 5 - year and 10 - year contracts have remained flat, and the 30 - year contract has increased slightly [6].

Core Viewpoint - Plastic futures experienced a slight increase, with the main contract reaching a peak of 6896.00 yuan and closing at 6865.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 1.09% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Shanghai Zhongqi Futures indicates that plastic futures are primarily in a narrow range consolidation, supported by positive domestic macro sentiment, but pressured by a decline in international crude oil prices [2] - The Brent crude oil main contract fell by 3.81%, impacting trading sentiment for plastic futures, leading to limited price increases in the afternoon [2] - Current supply of plastic is ample due to low maintenance capacity and increased imports from North America, while downstream demand from agricultural and packaging films remains stable [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Ruida Futures, recent maintenance at major petrochemical plants has limited impact on production days, with a slight increase in PE production and capacity utilization [3] - The supply pressure is expected to remain high due to new production facilities coming online, while downstream demand for agricultural films is peaking and packaging film orders are weakening [3] - Ningzheng Futures anticipates that the L2601 contract will experience short-term fluctuations, with supply levels remaining high and production enterprise inventories increasing [4] Group 3: Price Pressure and Technical Analysis - Ruida Futures highlights that the L2601 contract should be monitored for pressure around the 6900 yuan mark, suggesting a cautious outlook on price increases due to limited supply-demand drivers [3] - Ningzheng Futures suggests that the L2601 contract will face resistance at the 6910 yuan level, recommending a wait-and-see approach or short-term short positions [4]

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report - Date: November 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of polyolefins are expected to remain under pressure. There are no new production plans in November, but some maintenance devices will restart, increasing the capacity expansion pressure and intensifying the imbalance between supply and demand. The downstream demand is weak, with the seasonal peak of agricultural film production passing, the demand for pipes increasing first and then decreasing, and the downstream's willingness to stock up being low due to fear of price drops [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market Performance**: The L2601 contract of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened higher, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 6,788 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton (-0.09%), with a trading volume of 186,000 lots and an increase in positions by 2,586 lots to 586,919 lots. The PP2601 contract of polypropylene closed at 6,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan (-0.11%), with a decrease in positions by 4,959 lots to 636,600 lots. The futures market opened low and fluctuated, the market trading atmosphere changed little, traders mostly offered discounts, and downstream buyers mainly made small - order purchases [5][6] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: There are no new production plans in November, but some maintenance devices will restart, increasing the device operating load and the pressure of new capacity expansion, which intensifies the imbalance between supply and demand. The downstream demand is weak. The agricultural film production has reached a seasonal peak and is declining, the demand for pipes increases first and then decreases, the plastic weaving of PP is boosted by packaging demand, and BOPP enterprises mainly digest inventory. The downstream's low willingness to stock up due to fear of price drops further drags down the transaction price [6] 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: On November 12, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 690,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (-2.82%) from the previous working day, compared with 680,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - **PE Market Price**: The prices of LLDPE in some areas decreased. The price range in North China was 6,760 - 7,000 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,900 - 7,400 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,050 - 7,450 yuan/ton [7] - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong market was 5,750 - 5,780 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous working day. The market was in a supply - demand game, downstream factories mostly waited and watched for rigid demand, producers had a certain intention to stabilize the market, and individual offers had narrow discounts. The overall trading atmosphere was average [7] - **PP Market Price**: Most prices in the PP market fluctuated slightly, and some prices weakened. The mainstream price of North China wire drawing was 6,230 - 6,450 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,320 - 6,600 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6,400 - 6,550 yuan/ton [7] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP price difference, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, but specific data values are not described in detail in the text [9][13][17]