【烯烃-聚烯烃】 丙烯期货主力合约日内高开下行小幅收跌。基本面上,丙烯需求跟进良好,生产企业出货较为顺畅,部分企业 实单竞拍溢价情况犹存,市场成交气氛保持。 塑料和聚丙烯期货主力合约日内震荡整理。聚乙烯方面，市场情绪维持偏强，下游工厂入市补库，生产企业部 分上调出厂价,市场价格重心维持上移,低价成交尚可。聚丙烯方面,石化报盘积极跟涨,因前期石化积极预 售,当前可售现货资源不多,叠加拉丝标品供应持续收紧,商家报盘锁利,加之下游工厂存刚需补库预期,价 格获得一定支撑。 【纯苯-苯乙烯】 统苯期货主力合约小幅回落，山东市场成交转弱。进口量充足延续，江苏港口库存持续累积。国内供应有所增 加，下游需求小幅提升。短期纯苯预计延续震荡运行,关注地缘风险犹动；远月统苯预计减产，去库预期下, 中线考虑逢低介入月差正套。 苯乙烯期货主力合约继续在半年线压制下横盘整理,短期缺乏方向指引。基本面上,下游随行就市,现货采购 按需,整体表现良好,出口2月商谈仍在继续。苯乙烯生产企业产销平稳,合约出货稳定,库存继续下降。但原 料纯苯继续累库,成本弱势对苯乙烯反弹形成压制。基本面多空博弈价格延续整理。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作 ...

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【烯烃-聚烯烃】 丙烯期货主力合约日内上行收涨。基本面上，业者入市积极性回升,提振整体交投气氛。企业库存持续低位, 报盘窄幅探涨为主。竞拍溢价幅度扩大，高端放量亦有增加，带动成交重心走高。 塑料和聚丙烯期货主力合约日内上行收涨。聚乙烯方面，节后市场宏观面回暖，业者心态向好，叠加成本支撑 增强、市场流通货源缩减等因素，场内成交氛围明显升温。聚丙烯方面，石化厂价稳中上调对现货市场货源成 本形成支撑,叠加中上游企业交付前期预售货源,市场现货流通压力暂可控,中间商报盘编暖调整为主。但下 游工厂心态谨慎,市场成交侧重商谈。 【纯苯-苯乙烯】 纯苯期货主力合约震荡调整,华东现货价格小幅反弹。进口量高位,港口高库存持续压制市场;加氢苯产量提 升，供应有所回升，下游苯乙烯降负。短期纯苯受油价犹动;上半年去库预期下，中线考虑逢低介入月差正 套。 | /// > 国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月06日 | | 尿素 | ★☆☆ | 甲醇 | ★☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯菜 | 女女女 | 苯乙烯 | ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 01 月 06 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 醇、苹果涨超 3%，硅铁、双胶纸、沪锌、铝合金、菜籽涨超 2%。跌幅方面，胶 ...

晨会纪要 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 12 月 31 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/12/31 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | | | | | | | | 鸡蛋 | 碳酸锂 | 玻璃 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 硅铁 | 纯碱 | 甲醇 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 锰硅 | 铁矿石 | 五债 | | | | 烧碱 | | 塑料 | 二债 | | | 客服电话： | | | 生猪 | 多晶硅 | | | | | | 焦煤 | 沥青 | | | 400-618-6767 | | | 螺纹钢 | 上证50股指期货 | | | 公司网址： | | | | | | | | | | 热轧卷板 | | | | www.ztqh.com | | | 焦炭 | | | ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Varieties Analysis - Release Date: December 30, 2025 1. Market Performance Summary 1.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on December 30, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Platinum and palladium hit the daily limit down, both with a 13% decline. Shanghai tin dropped over 4%, lithium carbonate and Shanghai silver nearly 4%, and Shanghai gold over 3%. International copper, Shanghai copper, and the container shipping European line fell over 2%. On the upside, Shanghai nickel and glass rose over 3%, and methanol and soda ash rose over 2%. Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 (IF) main contract rose 0.36%, the SSE 50 (IH) main contract fell 0.03%, the CSI 500 (IC) main contract rose 0.59%, and the CSI 1000 (IM) main contract rose 0.24%. In the bond futures market, the 2 - year Treasury bond (TS) main contract rose 0.01%, the 5 - year Treasury bond (TF) main contract fell 0.01%, the 10 - year Treasury bond (T) main contract fell 0.02%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond (TL) main contract rose 0.17% [6][7] - As of 15:24 on December 30, in terms of capital inflows in domestic futures main contracts, CSI 1000 2603 had an inflow of 2.818 billion yuan, CSI 2603 had an inflow of 2.795 billion yuan, and SSE 2603 had an inflow of 1.62 billion yuan. In terms of outflows, Shanghai gold 2602 had an outflow of 7.982 billion yuan, Shanghai silver 2602 had an outflow of 2.928 billion yuan, and Shanghai copper 2602 had an outflow of 1.556 billion yuan [7] 2. Commodity - Specific Analysis 2.1 Copper - **Market Trend**: Shanghai copper opened lower and closed lower on the day. The zero - priced long - term concentrate processing fee for 2026 boosted market sentiment, leading to consecutive days of rising copper prices. However, due to factors such as squeezed copper product profits, decreased capacity utilization, and weak downstream demand, the upward drive was affected. But the strong upward trend of copper remained unchanged [9] - **Supply and Demand**: SMM predicted that the electrolytic copper output in December would increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month, a 5.96% increase, and a 6.69% year - on - year increase. The continuous accumulation of cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange indicated a decline in downstream purchasing power [9] 2.2 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: Lithium carbonate opened and closed lower on the day. Although the downstream energy - storage battery market continued to grow, the growth rate slowed down. The expected production cut of lithium iron phosphate in the first quarter weakened the support for lithium carbonate prices [11] - **Supply and Demand**: SMM data showed that the output of lithium carbonate increased by about 150 tons last week to 22,161 tons. The production of lithium extraction from salt lakes continued to decline. The downstream demand was expected to weaken as the terminal peak season was coming to an end, and the purchase tax would be halved starting next year [11] 2.3 Crude Oil - **Market Trend**: OPEC+ countries reaffirmed the suspension of production increases in the first quarter of next year. However, due to the end of the demand peak season, the continuous increase in US oil inventories, and the high - level production of US crude oil, the crude oil market remained in a state of supply surplus. It was expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks [12][13] 2.4 Asphalt - **Market Trend**: The supply of asphalt was expected to decrease as some refineries planned to switch production or stop production. The demand in the north was gradually ending, but the winter storage demand continued to be released. The price of asphalt in Shandong rose slightly, and it was expected that the asphalt futures price would fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela [14] - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the asphalt production rate increased by 3.7 percentage points to 31.3%. The domestic asphalt production in January 2026 was expected to be 2 million tons, a 7.3% month - on - month decrease. The downstream construction rate mostly declined, and the inventory - to - sales ratio of refineries increased slightly [14] 2.5 PP (Polypropylene) - **Market Trend**: The downstream demand for PP was in the late peak season, with orders continuing to decline. Although the overall sentiment of bulk commodities was boosted, the supply - demand pattern remained unchanged. It was expected that the upward space was limited, and the L - PP spread was expected to narrow [16] - **Supply and Demand**: As of the week of December 26, the downstream construction rate of PP decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24%. The construction rate of PP enterprises decreased to about 82%, and the petrochemical inventory was at a relatively high level [16] 2.6 Plastic - **Market Trend**: The plastic market was affected by factors such as new production capacity and the end of the peak season for agricultural films. Although the overall sentiment of bulk commodities was positive, the supply - demand pattern remained unchanged. It was expected that the upward space was limited, and the L - PP spread was expected to narrow [17][18] - **Supply and Demand**: As of the week of December 26, the downstream construction rate of PE decreased by 0.62 percentage points to 41.83%. New production capacity was put into operation, and the construction rate decreased slightly. The demand for agricultural films decreased, and the downstream purchasing willingness was weak [17] 2.7 PVC - **Market Trend**: The supply of PVC decreased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak. The export situation was not optimistic, and the social inventory was still high. It was expected that PVC would fluctuate. The real estate market was still in the adjustment stage, and improvement required time [19] - **Supply and Demand**: The PVC construction rate decreased by 1.13 percentage points to 77.23%. The downstream construction rate decreased by 0.87 percentage points, and the export orders decreased slightly [19] 2.8 Coking Coal - **Market Trend**: Coking coal opened lower and closed higher on the day. Although the downstream demand was weak, the market was affected by factors such as the expected production cut of mines and the progress of winter storage. It was expected to fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to frequent capital rotation [20][21] - **Supply and Demand**: The utilization rate of coking coal mines decreased by 2.41% month - on - month. The import of coal increased, and the total inventory increased by 54,600 tons. The profit of coke enterprises decreased, and the fourth round of price cuts was initiated [21] 2.9 Urea - **Market Trend**: Urea opened flat and closed higher on the day. Although the spot market continued to decline, the futures market rebounded, and the sentiment improved. There was limited fundamental support, and the market was expected to fluctuate at a high level [22] - **Supply and Demand**: The current daily output of urea was 200,000 tons. There were plans for production cuts in the southwest in January, but also plans for the resumption of production of previously shut - down devices. The downstream compound fertilizer factory's construction rate decreased, and the inventory decreased [22]

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 30 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | ...

责任编辑：赵思远 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2025年12月29日，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现。钯、铂封跌停板，跌幅均为10%；碳酸锂跌超7%，多 晶硅跌超4%，PX、PTA跌超2%。涨幅方面，铁矿石涨超2%，双胶纸、玉米、淀粉、生猪、塑料、塑 料月均价涨超1%。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2025年12月29日，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现。钯、铂封跌停板，跌幅均为10%；碳酸锂跌超7%，多 晶硅跌超4%，PX、PTA跌超2%。涨幅方面，铁矿石涨超2%，双胶纸、玉米、淀粉、生猪、塑料、塑 料月均价涨超1%。 | 문을 | 音约音称 | 最新 | 现手 | 买价 | 英语 | 海端家 | 可能 | 英国 | DATE | 海路 | 持仓型 | 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 把2606 M | 494.10 | 1 | | 494.10 | -10.00% | - | 1616 | 67 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 26 日 商品表现 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 10 月 16 日收盘，国内期货主力合约多数上涨。铂涨超 9% ...

| 11/11/2 | 国技斯特 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月25日 | | 尿素 | ななな | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯菜 | 女女女 | 苯乙烯 | なな女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 凝丙烯 | ☆☆☆ | 塑料 | ☆☆☆ | | | PVC | ななな | 烧碱 | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | РХ | ★☆☆ | PTA | ★☆★ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 乙二醇 | 女女女 | 短纤 | ★☆★ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | なな女 | 纯碱 | ☆☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 瓶片 | ★☆☆ | 丙烯 | ☆☆☆ | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃 ...