Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View - There is no clear core view presented in the given content. The document mainly provides a table of futures and spot prices, along with related data such as basis rates and price differences for various commodities. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Metals - **Copper**: The主力基差率 is 0.42%, with a 1.00% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 6556, and the主力 contract price is 95380 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The主力基差率 is -0.38%, with a 0.63% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 23760, and the主力 contract price is 23795 [3]. - **Zinc**: The主力基差率 is -0.17%, with a 0.43% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 22920, and the主力 contract price is 22950 [3]. - **Lead**: The主力基差率 is -1.09%, with a -0.06% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 16325, and the主力 contract price is 16485 [3]. - **Tin**: The主力基差率 is 1.52%, with a 2.13% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 357600, and the主力 contract price is 352250 [3]. - **Nickel**: The主力基差率 is 1.85%, with a 0.76% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 137800, and the主力 contract price is 135270 [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The主力基差率 is 5.93%, with a -0.80% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9200, and the主力 contract price is 8530 [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The主力基差率 is -0.64%, with a 0.60% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 157200, and the主力 contract price is 157920 [3]. - **Gold**: The主力基差率 is 0.05%, with a -0.03% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1014.44, and the主力 contract price is 1011.04 [3]. - **Silver**: The主力基差率 is 0.06%, with a -0.42% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 18121, and the主力 contract price is 18174 [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The主力基差率 is 2.81%, with a 0.42% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3220, and the主力 contract price is 3132 [3]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: The主力基差率 is -1.00%, with a -0.88% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3280, and the主力 contract price is 3313 [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The主力基差率 is 4.97%, with a 2.63% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 846.6, and the主力 contract price is 806.5 [3]. - **Coke**: The主力基差率 is -8%, with a 0.56% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1625, and the主力 contract price is 1776 [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The主力基差率 is 0.52%, with a 0.68% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1247.5, and the主力 contract price is 1241 [3]. - **Steam Coal**: The主力基差率 is -5.7%, with a 0.75% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 755, and the主力 contract price is 801.4 [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The主力基差率 is -7.03%, with a -0.80% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5660, and the主力 contract price is 6166 [3]. - **Ferromanganese**: The主力基差率 is -5.2%, with a -0.18% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 6150, and the主力 contract price is 6492 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The主力基差率 is -0.97%, with a -1.39% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 14350, and the主力 contract price is 14490 [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The主力基差率 is 8.80%, with a -1.30% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3190, and the主力 contract price is 2932 [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The主力基差率 is 9.88%, with a -0.06% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2570, and the主力 contract price is 2371 [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: The主力基差率 is 3.16%, with a -1.22% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8820, and the主力 contract price is 8480 [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The主力基差率 is 5.39%, with a -0.90% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 10230, and the主力 contract price is 9707 [3]. - **Peanut**: The主力基差率 is 10.00%, with a 0.43% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9000, and the主力 contract price is 8136 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The主力基差率 is 0.42%, with a -1.20% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9510, and the主力 contract price is 9510 [3]. - **Corn**: The主力基差率 is 1.01%, with a 0.09% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2400, and the主力 contract price is 2376 [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The主力基差率 is 4.96%, with a 0.34% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2900, and the主力 contract price is 2763 [3]. - **Apple**: The主力基差率 is not provided, with a 0.80% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8500, and the主力 contract price is 9978 [3]. - **Egg**: The主力基差率 is -6.136%, with a -0.25% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3200, and the主力 contract price is 3410 [3]. - **Live Pig**: The主力基差率 is -3.3%, with a -0.37% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9650, and the主力 contract price is 12595 [3]. - **Cotton**: The主力基差率 is 8.94%, with a -1.03% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 16711, and the主力 contract price is 15340 [3]. Soft Commodities - **Sugar**: The主力基差率 is 0.94%, with a 0.00% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5480, and the主力 contract price is 5429 [3]. - **Methanol**: The主力基差率 is 0.92%, with a -2.14% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3118, and the主力 contract price is 2883 [3]. - **Ethanol**: The主力基差率 is -1.21%, with a -0.06% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4975, and the主力 contract price is 5036 [3]. - **PTA**: The主力基差率 is -1.40%, with a -0.44% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 6500, and the主力 contract price is 6592 [3]. - **Polypropylene**: The主力基差率 is 3.62%, with a 3.23% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9000, and the主力 contract price is 8975 [3]. - **Styrene**: The主力基差率 is -1.04%, with a -3.2% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 10000, and the主力 contract price is 10105 [3]. - **Short Fiber**: The主力基差率 is -0.12%, with a -3.10% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8100, and the主力 contract price is 8008 [3]. - **Plastic**: The主力基差率 is -0.40%, with a -3.00% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8680, and the主力 contract price is 8715 [3]. - **PVC**: The主力基差率 is -1.46%, with a -2.77% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5620, and the主力 contract price is 5703 [3]. - **Rubber**: The主力基差率 is -0.79%, with a -0.02% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 16300, and the主力 contract price is 16430 [3]. - **20 -号胶**: The主力基差率 is 1.93%, with a -1.07% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 13827, and the主力 contract price is 13565 [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The主力基差率 is -1.61%, with a 0.01% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1224, and the主力 contract price is 1244 [3]. - **Urea**: The主力基差率 is -0.16%, with a 0.05% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1860, and the主力 contract price is 1863 [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The主力基差率 is 2.37%, with a -2.69% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8300, and the主力 contract price is 8108 [3]. - **Paper Pulp**: The主力基差率 is 0.26%, with a 0.26% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5238, and the主力 contract price is 5224 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The主力基差率 is -6.11%, with a -1.41% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 675.4, and the主力 contract price is 723.9 [3]. - **Fuel Oil**: The主力基差率 is 9.44%, with a -2.38% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4758, and the主力 contract price is 4348 [3]. - **Asphalt**: The主力基差率 is -2.94%, with a -2.24% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4280, and the主力 contract price is 4410 [3]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The主力基差率 is 15.83%, with a -10.34% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5976, and the主力 contract price is 5159 [3]. - **LPG**: The主力基差率 is 9.89%, with a 6.06% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 7198, and the主力 contract price is 6550 [3]. Stock Index - **CSI 300**: The主力基差率 is 1.97%, with a 0.00% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4537.5, and the主力 contract price is 4505.6 [3]. - **SSE 50**: The主力基差率 is 1.04%, with a 0.32% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2859.5, and the主力 contract price is 2848 [3]. - **CSI 500**: The主力基差率 is 3.16%, with a 0.62% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 7767.7, and the主力 contract price is 7685.6 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic plastic futures market is in a complex situation with strong cost support, weak demand, and differentiated inventory. In the short - term, due to the uncertainty of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the oil price is likely to rise and support the plastic price. With the ongoing domestic device maintenance, the supply is tightening, and the plastic futures price will maintain a strong - side shock. In the long - term, if the geopolitical conflict eases, the cost premium will fade, and the slow recovery of downstream demand and high social inventory will limit the price increase [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - In Q1 2026, the domestic plastic supply showed features of slower capacity expansion, more device maintenance, and a structural decline in the operating rate. The capacity expansion speed slowed down significantly, and there were only a small amount of new production capacity in early January. The industry entered the stage of digesting existing capacity, and the new supply pressure was significantly relieved [3]. - In March, the spring maintenance of domestic petrochemical enterprises led to a contraction in supply. By mid - March, the operating rate of the polyethylene (PE) industry dropped to 82.39%, 4.5 percentage points lower than in February. The weekly output decreased by 37500 tons, and the output affected by device maintenance reached 91000 tons. The profit of coal - based PE was over 1900 yuan/ton, while the oil - based PE was in continuous loss, with a loss of over 2000 yuan/ton, which forced high - cost oil - based capacity to reduce production and conduct maintenance, further intensifying the supply contraction [4]. Demand Side - After the Spring Festival, the downstream plastic product enterprises gradually resumed work, but the resumption rhythm was slower than in previous years. By mid - to late March, the operating rate of the PE downstream agricultural film industry rose to 35.44%, and that of packaging film and pipe industries rose to about 50%. The PP downstream industries had different operating rates, and the overall downstream mainly had rigid demand for procurement. There were two main factors restricting demand: weak terminal consumption and slow export orders, and the high plastic price squeezing downstream profits. However, with the implementation of domestic policies, the demand for some plastic products is expected to improve [6][8][9]. Impact of Geopolitical Situation - The continuous escalation of the Middle - East conflict has become a core external variable affecting oil prices and plastic futures. The shipping volume of the Strait of Hormuz dropped by 92% in March, causing concerns about oil supply disruptions. The oil price rose sharply, and the cost of oil - based plastic increased, driving up the plastic price. But the impact of geopolitics on oil prices is short - term and uncertain [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ☆☆☆ (Three stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Plastics: ☆☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ (Three stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (Three stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (Three stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ (Three stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (Three stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (Three stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (Three stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical risks, supply and demand dynamics, and macro - economic uncertainties. Different chemical products show different trends and potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Acrylonitrile futures main contract oscillated and consolidated during the day. Enterprises' offers were mainly stable, with individual prices slightly rising. Downstream demand followed as needed, and the trading range changed little [2] - Plastic and polypropylene main contracts rose and then fell during the day, still closing above the 5 - day moving average. For polyethylene, due to strong macro uncertainties and repeated news, the market sold goods as the market went. Downstream procurement was cautious, and transactions were weak. For polypropylene, the impact of geopolitical risk sentiment decreased, the supply - demand contradiction returned, the supply side continued to reduce production, and downstream enterprises resisted high - priced goods, so the market price was difficult to rise and mainly oscillated [2] Polyester - The Middle East situation still affects crude oil supply, and concerns about chemical production reduction have not been completely eliminated. PX and PTA followed the price decline during the day. Terminal chasing willingness was insufficient, mainly digesting inventory. Polyester filament yarns accumulated inventory, and the load reduction would affect raw material demand, bringing negative feedback pressure to the market. PTA's start - up was stable with a slight increase, the processing margin oscillated weakly, and the monthly spread fell from a high level [3] - The shortage of raw materials led to a significant reduction in the load of ethylene glycol plants in South China, a decline in port inventory, and the synthetic gas method was about to enter the maintenance period, so the market was worried about a continuous decline in supply, and ethylene glycol showed strength. However, the reduction in polyester load dragged down demand. Repeated news affected market sentiment, and it was expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [3] - The short - fiber load decreased slightly. The finished - product inventory of downstream textile enterprises decreased, but they still mainly digested raw materials. The market was mainly affected by the Middle East situation, and prices fell with raw materials during the day. The sharp price fluctuations affected terminal orders, and attention should be paid to potential negative feedback pressure from the terminal and the evolution of the situation in the medium term [3] - A large bottle - chip manufacturer announced force majeure, resulting in a reduction in long - term contracts. The reduction in supply and the expectation of rising demand led to an increase in the monthly spread and benefits. However, the bottle - chip production capacity was abundant. If the load was increased, the price might be under pressure again. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the situation and the load performance of the bottle - chip industry [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The futures price of benzene fell, and the ex - factory price of Shandong local refineries continued to decline. Refineries were worried about the stability of raw material supply and entered a defensive production reduction. Last week, the domestic benzene production decreased. The arrival volume of pure benzene in East China decreased significantly, and the inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased. The short - term benzene market was affected by cost and supply, and attention should be paid to the evolution of geopolitical risks and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz [5] - The styrene futures main contract oscillated around the 5 - day moving average during the day. The restart and maintenance of styrene production plants coexisted, the inventory in Jiangsu ports increased slightly, and the market trading sentiment was in a game. Among the three S downstream products, the profit of PS was in deficit, and the load was significantly reduced. Other downstream products also had a certain expectation of load reduction. Overall, there were expectations of a double - reduction in supply and demand, and the reduction in demand might be less than that in supply [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures main contract rose continuously. The import arrival volume in coastal areas decreased, the MTO start - up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas was basically flat month - on - month, and the inventory in East China ports continued to decrease. The start - up of domestic methanol plants decreased, traditional downstream industries gradually resumed production, and the external procurement of olefin plants in the production area increased, so the production enterprises' inventory decreased. Geopolitical factors were still the key to affecting the short - term methanol market. With the expected continuous tightening of imports, the phased decline in domestic supply, and the recovery of demand, the methanol market was expected to run strongly [6] - The urea futures continued to fall, and the spot price decreased slightly. The supply remained high. Currently, the wheat green - turning fertilizer in North China and the Huanghuaihai region has gradually entered the final stage, and there is still some rigid demand in central Shandong. The support of agricultural demand has weakened stage by stage. Compound fertilizer enterprises have gradually increased their load, and the start - up has continued to increase. This week, urea production enterprises have significantly reduced their inventory. The domestic fertilizer export has been further tightened. Under the influence of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, the short - term market is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC fell during the day. The prices of ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC were differentiated, and the price of calcium carbide weakened. Ethylene - based enterprises reduced their load, while calcium - carbide - based enterprises increased their load, and the overall supply decreased. The industry inventory decreased, but there was still pressure. The downstream start - up increased seasonally, but attention should be paid to the downstream's acceptance during the process of a sharp rise in raw material prices. The Asian supply was tight, and the export market was expected to be good. Geopolitical conflicts pushed up the cost of ethylene - based PVC, and the shortage of ethylene raw materials affected the domestic and foreign supply. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the subsequent geopolitical situation and the supply of ethylene [7] - The caustic soda price fell from a high level. The liquid caustic soda inventory decreased, the export inquiry was good, and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda increased significantly. The national start - up decreased, and the supply pressure was slightly relieved. The liquid chlorine price has fallen recently. Attention should be paid to the change in the profit of chlor - alkali integration. The demand for alumina was mainly stable, the non - aluminum demand improved month - on - month, and the export inquiry improved. It is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term. Currently, the profit is expanding rapidly, and the basis is too large. Attention should be paid to the possibility of large fluctuations after the sentiment cools down [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fell from a high level. The industry inventory decreased slightly, but there was still pressure. Some plants increased their load, and the supply increased slightly. The rigid demand for heavy soda was stable, the demand for light soda increased month - on - month, and downstream enterprises purchased as needed. There was resistance to high prices. It will fluctuate with macro - sentiment in the short term. In the long term, after the sentiment fades, the strategy of shorting on the right side at high prices can be considered [8] - Glass was operating weakly. Recently, the inventory - replenishing sentiment has decreased. Currently, the inventory of the middle and upper reaches is relatively high, and it needs the actual downstream demand to drive inventory reduction. The production line was cold - repaired, and the production capacity decreased slightly recently. The downstream resumed work slowly, and the demand improvement was limited. After the macro - sentiment fades, the market will return to fundamental trading. Currently, the inventory pressure of the middle and upper reaches is relatively large. If the processing orders do not recover well, the futures price may fall again after the sentiment cools down, and the overall operation may be in a wide - range oscillation [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The chemical market is affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical risks, supply and demand dynamics, and cost fluctuations. Different chemical products show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated within the day. With price concessions, downstream demand increased, inventory pressure eased, and prices rose slightly [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures fluctuated above the 5 - day moving average. For polyethylene, supply decreased due to more maintenance and less imports, and demand was stable. For polypropylene, supply was expected to shrink, but high prices restricted downstream procurement [2] Polyester - PX and PTA prices declined due to negative factors such as tanker passage in the Strait of Hormuz and terminal feedback. Middle - East oil supply may recover, and terminal demand was weak [3] - Ethylene glycol prices first rose due to supply concerns and then fell due to reduced negative expectations and downstream feedback [3] - Short - fiber load decreased slightly, and the market followed raw material fluctuations. Bottle - chip supply decreased, and prices may be pressured if oil supply recovers [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - East China pure benzene spot prices fell, and domestic production decreased. Port inventory decreased. Short - term prices were affected by cost and supply [5] - Styrene futures opened low and closed high, with a high - level consolidation pattern. Supply and demand were expected to decrease, and the fundamentals had some support [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures maintained a high - level shock. Import and domestic supply decreased, and demand recovered. The market was expected to be strong [6] - Urea futures prices fell, and the spot market was stable with a slight decline. Supply was high, and agricultural demand weakened. The market was expected to fluctuate within a range [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC continued a strong trend. Supply decreased, inventory was still under pressure, and downstream demand increased seasonally. It was expected to be strong in the short term [7] - Caustic soda fluctuated weakly. Liquid caustic soda inventory decreased, and export inquiries were good. The market followed sentiment but might have large fluctuations [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fell from a high level. Inventory decreased slightly, supply increased slightly, and demand was stable. It followed macro - sentiment in the short term [8] - Glass fluctuated weakly. Inventory was high, and demand improvement was limited. It might show a wide - range shock [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★☆ [1] - PX: ★★☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including olefins, polyesters, pure benzene - styrene, coal - chemical products, chlor - alkali products, and soda ash - glass. It takes into account factors such as supply, demand, geopolitical risks, and cost to predict the price trends of these products [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures main contract oscillated and consolidated. With price concessions, downstream demand increased, inventory pressure eased, and prices rose slightly [2] - Plastic and polypropylene main contracts oscillated above the 5 - day moving average. For polyethylene, supply decreased due to more maintenance and less cargo arrival, and demand was stable. For polypropylene, supply was expected to shrink, but high prices restricted downstream procurement [2] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fell due to factors like tanker passage in the Strait of Hormuz and terminal negative feedback. Middle - East oil supply might recover, and terminal demand was affected [3] - Ethylene glycol prices first rose due to supply concerns and then fell as the situation changed. Short - fiber load decreased slightly, and bottle - chip supply shrank with potential price pressure in the medium - term [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - East China pure benzene spot price fell, and domestic production decreased. The arrival volume decreased, and port inventory declined. Styrene futures main contract continued high - level consolidation, with expected supply and demand reduction and some fundamental support [5] Coal - chemical - Methanol futures maintained high - level oscillation. Import volume decreased, port inventory decreased, and the market was expected to be strong. Urea futures price fell, supply was high, and the market was expected to oscillate in the short - term [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC continued a strong trend. Supply decreased, inventory was still under pressure, and it was expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. Caustic soda oscillated weakly, with inventory decrease and potential large fluctuations [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fell from a high level. Inventory decreased slightly, supply increased slightly, and it followed macro - sentiment in the short - term. Glass oscillated weakly, with high inventory and limited demand improvement, and was expected to oscillate in a wide range [8]

Report Overview - The report is a daily analysis of core futures varieties, released on March 16, 2026 [3] Commodity Performance - As of the close on January 16, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Asphalt rose over 10%, bottle chips rose over 7%, ethylene glycol (EG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rose over 3%, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), propylene, polypropylene (PP), plastic, and palm oil rose over 2%. In terms of declines, Shanghai silver fell over 6%, palladium fell over 4%, platinum, container shipping on the European line, rapeseed meal, polysilicon, Shanghai tin, and live pigs fell over 3%, and glass and Shanghai gold fell over 2% [6] - Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract rose 0.08%, the SSE 50 index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.26%, the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract fell 0.62%, and the CSI 1000 index futures (IM) main contract fell 0.23%. Among treasury bond futures, the 2-year treasury bond futures (TS) main contract fell 0.04%, the 5-year treasury bond futures (TF) main contract fell 0.08%, the 10-year treasury bond futures (T) main contract fell 0.11%, and the 30-year treasury bond futures (TL) main contract fell 0.43% [7] Market Analysis Copper - Shanghai copper opened and closed lower. Tensions in the Middle East remain high, and if the conflict continues, inflation pressure will rise, strengthening the US dollar and suppressing copper prices. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, and the expectation of three interest rate cuts this year has converged to one, providing weak support for copper prices [9] - In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 6.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 12.0%. From January to February 2026, China imported 4.934 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. Domestic copper concentrate inventories are at a relatively low level compared to previous years, and the shortage of copper resources still supports copper prices [9] - The spread between refined and scrap copper in mainstream areas has narrowed. The output of electrolytic copper in March increased by 52,800 tons month-on-month and 6.51% year-on-year. On the demand side, the copper product sector has seen an increase in开工 after the "Golden March and Silver April." However, terminal data shows no optimistic performance, and the feedback on copper prices from the terminal is weak. New energy vehicle production and sales decreased by 21.8% and 14.2% year-on-year respectively [9] - Overall, copper prices are expected to be weak this week. If the war continues and inflation expectations rise, copper prices will remain weak. If the situation eases, copper prices may rebound [10] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened and closed lower today but rebounded at the end of the session. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 156,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 153,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [11] - Lithium concentrate exports from all lithium producers in Zimbabwe have been suspended. Local lithium mining companies are submitting new export license applications to the Zimbabwean government, and the approval process is expected to take 2 to 4 weeks. The domestic production schedule in March 2026 is 106,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 29.4%. There is a high probability of复产 in the domestic lithium mining sector, which is a potential negative factor [11] - Overall inventory continues to decline, but the decline rate is narrowing. Downstream inventory continues to accumulate, but the accumulation rate has slowed down. Terminal demand shows a marginal weakening trend. Overall, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are marginally weakening. If the news of the new export license application is confirmed, the previous gains may be reversed. The supply is expected to continue to increase, while the demand is approaching the photovoltaic tariff window period. The market is expected to be in a wide range of fluctuations in the short term [11] Crude Oil - EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, but the decrease in refined oil inventories was significant, resulting in an overall decrease in oil product inventories [12] - The US, Israel, and Iran are still attacking each other. Iran's daily oil production is about 3.3 million barrels, accounting for 3% of global production, and its daily exports are about 1.6 million barrels. The Strait of Hormuz, where Iran is located, is a major shipping route for crude oil. The near-complete suspension of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz for several days has led to production cuts in Middle Eastern oil-producing countries [12][13] - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait have cut production by up to 6.7 million barrels per day, equivalent to one-third of their total production capacity and about 6% of global supply. Although Trump said the war is basically over, Iran has stated that it controls the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and has fired on some merchant ships. The US Energy Secretary said it is "highly likely" to provide escort for ships in the Strait of Hormuz by the end of this month [13] - The IEA has announced the release of up to 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, but the delivery speed is slow. The US Treasury Department has temporarily relaxed sanctions on Russian maritime oil. These measures have alleviated short-term supply pressure, but are still less than the previous crude oil shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz. The risk of crude oil price spikes remains, and the frequent news of the Middle East situation has a significant impact on crude oil prices [13] Asphalt - On the supply side, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0% last week, which is 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In March 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.187 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 251,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 43,000 tons [14] - After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the开工率 of most asphalt downstream industries increased. The national asphalt shipments increased by 12.67% to 176,100 tons, but are still at a low level. The asphalt plant inventory rate remained unchanged, and the asphalt refinery inventory rate is at the lowest level in recent years [14] - The price of asphalt in Shandong has been adjusted, and the basis has dropped to a relatively low level. The import of Venezuelan crude oil in China is expected to decrease significantly compared to before the US intervention, and the supply of Middle Eastern raw materials will be affected by the US-Israel attack on Iran. The market is concerned about the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries in March [14] - Dongming Petrochemical has resumed production, and the asphalt开工率 has increased slightly. After the Lantern Festival, terminal demand has gradually recovered. The supply and demand of asphalt have both increased, and the cost support is significant. The market is focused on the tense situation in the Middle East, and the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed navigation. The expected production cuts of refineries have increased. It is expected that the asphalt price will follow the strong performance of crude oil prices in the near future, with large fluctuations [15] PP - As of the week of March 13, the downstream开工率 of PP decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 45.71%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream's acceptance of high-priced raw materials is not high, and the demand recovery is slow. However, the开工率 of the main downstream plastic products of PP continued to increase by 2.88 percentage points to 40.54% [16] - On March 16, some parking devices such as the first-phase second-line of Zhongjing Petrochemical restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 increased to about 77.5%, which is at a relatively low level. The production ratio of standard-grade PP decreased to about 23.5%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the petrochemical inventory has continued to decline, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [16] - On the cost side, although the IEA has announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The crude oil price has continued to rebound due to the attacks on multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the statement of the Iranian Supreme Leader to continue to block the Strait of Hormuz. The number of parking devices has increased recently. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream rigid demand has been released intensively, and the price of downstream BOPP films has increased [16] - The domestic supply and demand pattern of PP has improved, and there is still an expectation of anti-involution in the chemical industry. The Middle East situation has boosted the energy and chemical industry. Although PP does not rely on Middle Eastern imports, its upstream depends on Middle Eastern liquefied petroleum gas and crude oil. The shortage of raw materials has led to an increase in the reduction of olefin devices at home and abroad. The downstream has shown resistance to high prices, and the spot trading is weak. However, under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the reduction of refineries will further increase. The PP price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [16] Plastic - On March 16, there was little change in the parking devices, and the plastic开工率 remained at about 87.5%, which is at a neutral level. As of the week of March 13, the downstream开工率 of PE increased by 5.21 percentage points to 33.83%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream has gradually resumed production, but has not yet returned to the pre-holiday level. The overall downstream开工率 of PE shows seasonal changes [17][18] - After the Spring Festival holiday, the petrochemical inventory has continued to decline, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. On the cost side, although the IEA has announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The crude oil price has continued to rebound due to the attacks on multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the statement of the Iranian Supreme Leader to continue to block the Strait of Hormuz [18] - In terms of supply, the new production capacity of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA was put into production in January 2026. There are no plans to put new production capacity into operation in the first quarter. The plastic开工率 has decreased recently. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream factories have increased their resumption of work, and the rigid demand has been released intensively. The prices of agricultural films in North China, East China, and South China have all increased [18] - The domestic supply and demand pattern of plastic has improved, and there is still an expectation of anti-involution in the chemical industry. The Middle East situation has boosted the energy and chemical industry. Iranian PE imports account for about 8% of China's total imports and about 3% of domestic production. The imports from the entire Middle East region account for about 20% of domestic production. The shortage of raw materials has led to an increase in the reduction of olefin devices at home and abroad. The downstream has shown resistance to high prices, and the procurement has become more cautious. The spot trading is weak. However, under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the reduction of refineries will further increase. The plastic price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [18] PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region has increased by 50 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the PVC开工率 increased by 0.24 percentage points to 81.35%, and the PVC开工率 has increased, but is still at a neutral to high level in recent years. After the third week of the Spring Festival holiday, the average downstream开工率 of PVC increased by 3.49 percentage points to 39.33%, which is 3.13 percentage points lower than the same period last year. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream has gradually resumed production [19] - In terms of exports, due to the increase in Asian market prices, export inquiries have improved. The social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival holiday and continued to increase last week, and is still at a relatively high level. The inventory pressure is still large. From January to February 2026, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the year-on-year decline in investment, sales, new construction, and completion areas is still large. After the third week of the Spring Festival holiday, the commercial housing transactions have increased month-on-month, but are still at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The improvement of the real estate market still takes time [19] - The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the social inventory continues to increase. However, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment has stated that it will focus on key links such as the research and development of mercury-free catalysts to accelerate the mercury-free transformation of the polyvinyl chloride industry. The supply of upstream raw materials for PVC is tight, and the prices of ethylene and calcium carbide continue to rise. There is an expectation of load reduction in the domestic and international PVC markets. This week, ethylene-based devices such as Xinpu Chemical and Zhejiang Jiahua will reduce their operating loads. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. Under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the PVC price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [19][20] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened and closed lower but closed higher on the day. Fundamentally, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased last week, and the domestic mine开工率 has reached 87.16%, a month-on-month increase of 4.84%. The production and开工率 are both at a relatively high level year-on-year. However, due to the impact of overseas military conflicts, the price of coking coal has increased, leading to an increase in the downstream's purchasing sentiment. The coking coal inventory has decreased significantly this period, a month-on-month decrease of 85,800 tons. The downstream coking enterprises and steel mills have replenished their inventories, a month-on-month increase of 199,800 tons and 19,900 tons respectively. However, the coke production has not increased significantly, and the steel mills' profitability has recovered, with the开工 rate increasing by 0.63%, but the start-up speed is slower than in previous years [21] - Although the fundamentals of coking coal have no upward driving force, it is still in a strong consolidation state recently due to the stimulation of inflation expectations and the expectation of energy shortage. If the Middle East situation shows no sign of stopping in the short term, the energy and chemical industry will remain strong. Otherwise, there is a risk of a rapid decline [21] Urea - The market sentiment was high last week, and the rise of futures and international urea has driven the enthusiasm of spot trading. Most regions remained stable this weekend. The ex-factory prices of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan range from 1,810 to 1,840 yuan/ton [22] - Fundamentally, the state reserve of urea has been released, and the daily production has continuously reached new highs. At present, the gas-based devices have basically completed their resumption of production, and there are sporadic shutdown plans for upstream factories. The resumption and shutdown are parallel, with basically no major changes. The raw material prices of compound fertilizers have all increased to varying degrees this week, and the terminal sales are smooth. The cost and demand have jointly driven the price of compound fertilizer products to rise. Although the开工 rate is gradually increasing, the finished product inventory is still decreasing. Although the topdressing of wheat during the greening period is basically over, subsequent products such as spring corn still require a large amount of high-nitrogen compound fertilizers. Although the increase in raw material prices has squeezed the factory profits, the high demand still corresponds to the high supply [22] - After the sharp increase, the downstream buys when the price rises and does not buy when the price falls, and the terminal sales are smooth. The upstream factory inventory has continued to decrease. Although the current daily production is higher than last year, the inventory has not shown a large increase due to the digestion of downstream demand and the drive of exports. Instead, it shows a looser situation than last year, with no obvious inventory pressure, which is an important reason to support the strong market. Overall, due to the combination of farming and the Middle East situation, urea shows a slight over-increase. Ensuring supply and stabilizing prices during the spring plowing season is still the main tone of the market. The opportunity for a significant increase in the future depends on the export quota after the end of the spring plowing season. It is expected to stabilize in the short term [22][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Polypropylene, plastic, pure benzene, styrene, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle - chip, methanol, urea, and caustic soda are rated as ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - PVC is rated as ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish trend with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Soda ash and glass do not have clear star ratings in the report Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is generally affected by factors such as the Middle East situation, oil prices, and supply - demand relationships. Different chemical products show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contracts of olefin futures closed higher. Crude oil and propylene futures prices increased, supporting market sentiment. The cost pressure on downstream products eased, and production enterprises were less willing to offer discounts. The trading atmosphere improved slightly [2] - The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene closed higher. High - fluctuating oil prices boosted market sentiment. For polyethylene, domestic supply decreased due to more maintenance, and overall supply pressure eased. Demand from the northern spring plowing and packaging film factories was stable but enterprises mainly consumed inventory. For polypropylene, supply was expected to shrink, but high raw material prices restricted downstream purchasing [2] Polyester - Affected by the Middle East situation, PX and PTA prices were strong but faced intraday fluctuations. There was mid - term negative feedback pressure. Ethylene glycol prices rose due to cost and supply factors but also had downstream negative feedback. Short - fiber followed raw material fluctuations, and bottle - chip had opportunities for positive spreads and processing margin repair [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The main contract of pure benzene futures continued to be strong, but market sentiment cooled. Domestic pure benzene production and imports were expected to decrease, and short - term cost support was obvious. The main contract of styrene futures closed higher, but the spot market showed weakness [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures market was strong. Import arrivals in coastal areas decreased, and the East China port inventory declined. Domestic production decreased, and demand recovered. The urea market was generally strong. Supply was high, and agricultural demand support weakened, but compound fertilizer enterprises increased their loads [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed a strong trend. Overall supply decreased, industry inventory was under pressure, and downstream开工 increased seasonally. The export market was expected to improve. Caustic soda prices fell from high levels. Liquid caustic soda inventory decreased, and export inquiries were good. The national chlorine - alkali load decreased [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fell from high levels. Industry inventory decreased slightly but was still under pressure. Supply remained high, and downstream demand was stable or increasing. Glass prices fell. Mid - and upstream inventory was high, and downstream demand improvement was limited. The market was expected to show wide - range fluctuations [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - There is no clear core view presented in the provided content. The document mainly shows the Maike Futures basis statistics table, including the basis rate, spot price, and contract price of various futures products. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 100,860, with a主力基差率 of -0.19% and a change of -0.19% compared to the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum**: The spot price of SMM A00 aluminum is 25,410, with a主力基差率 of 0.24% [3]. - **Zinc**: The spot price of SMM 0 zinc is 24,285, with a主力基差率 of 0.64% [3]. - **Lead**: The spot price of SMM 1 lead ingot is 16,655, with a主力基差率 of -0.93% [3]. - **Tin**: The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 392,650, with a主力基差率 of 0.61% [3]. - **Nickel**: The spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 140,950, with a主力基差率 of 0.22% [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price of SMM East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon brick is 8,682, with a主力基差率 of 5.93% [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of steel - linked high - quality battery - grade lithium carbonate is 158,250, with a主力基差率 of 1.63% [3]. - **Gold**: The spot price of AuT + D (Shanghai Gold Exchange) is 1,151.52, with a主力基差率 of -5.26 [3]. - **Silver**: The spot price of Ag(T + D) (Shanghai Gold Exchange) is 22,062, with a主力基差率 of -0.96% [3]. 3.2 Black Industry - **Steel Products** - **Rebar**: The spot price of HRB400 20mm in Shanghai is 3,230, with a主力基差率 of 3.53% [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The spot price of Q235B 4.75mm in Shanghai is 3,275, with a主力基差率 of 1.04% [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of PB powder 61% in Qingdao is 821.5, with a主力基差率 of 3.26% [3]. - **Coke**: The spot price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,896.0, with a主力基差率 of -7.66% [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of main coking coal (Jixian, Mongolia 5) is 1,466.0, with a主力基差率 of 2.99% [3]. - **Power Coal**: The spot price of Shanxi Q500 at Qinhuangdao Port is 801.4, with a主力基差率 of -7.31% [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The spot price of FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 6,002, with a主力基差率 of -7.3% [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The spot price of FeMn68Si18 in Hebei is 5,920, with a主力基差率 of -0.72% [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of 304/2B 2.0*1219 from Angang Lianzhong in Wuxi is 14,495, with a主力基差率 of -0.50% [3]. 3.3 Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils** - **Soybean**: The spot price of domestic first - grade soybean in Harbin is 4,862, with a主力基差率 of -9.26% [3]. - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of ordinary protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,078, with a主力基差率 of 7.07% [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of ordinary rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,470, with a主力基差率 of 4.74% [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang is 9,000, with a主力基差率 of 1.00% [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,440, with a主力基差率 of 6.87% [3]. - **Peanut**: The spot price of Baisha peanuts (45% oil content, 9% water content) in Changtu is 9,200, with a主力基差率 of 13.66% [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,780, with a主力基差率 of 0.99% [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Corn**: The spot price of national - standard first - grade corn at Qishenquan Port is 2,405, with a主力基差率 of 0.38% [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The spot price of corn starch at the factory in Changchun is 2,734, with a主力基差率 of 0.91% [3]. - **Apple**: The spot price of red Fuji apples in Yantai Qixia and Shaanxi Luochuan is 8,530, with a主力基差率 of 1.87% [3]. - **Egg**: The spot price of eggs in Hebei Cangzhou is 3,861, with a主力基差率 of -0.48% [3]. - **Pig**: The spot price of external ternary pigs in Henan is 13,790, with a主力基差率 of -9.0% [3]. - **Cotton**: The spot price of cotton price index 328 in Xinjiang is 16,848, with a主力基差率 of 8.38% [3]. - **Sugar**: The spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou is 5,480, with a主力基差率 of 1.18% [3]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: The spot price of methanol in East China is 2,850, with a主力基差率 of 4.55% [3]. - **Ethanol**: The spot price of ethanol in East China is 4,560, with a主力基差率 of -2.00% [3]. - **PTA**: The spot price of PTA in East China is 6,606, with a主力基差率 of 0.74% [3]. - **Polypropylene**: The spot price of Hangzhou Shaoxing Sanyuan T30S is 8,950, with a主力基差率 of 2.88% [3]. - **Ethylene Benzene**: The spot price of ethylene benzene in East China is 10,350, with a主力基差率 of 3.46% [3]. - **Short - Fiber**: The spot price of Shangfangxiang semi - bright natural white 1.56*38mm short - fiber is 8,070, with a主力基差率 of 0.52% [3]. - **Plastic**: The spot price of Yuyao Zhejiang Petrochemical 7042 is 8,650, with a主力基差率 of 4.46% [3]. - **PVC**: The spot price of East China SG - 5 Xinjiang Zhongtai mainstream is 5,633, with a主力基差率 of 5.40% [3]. - **Rubber**: The spot price of Thai - produced rubber at Qingdao Bonded Area is 17,685, with a主力基差率 of 1.61% [3]. - **20 - Number Rubber**: The spot price of Thai 20 standard rubber at Qingdao Bonded Area is 14,155, with a主力基差率 of 0.62% [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1,363, with a主力基差率 of -1.99% [3]. - **Urea**: The spot price of small - particle urea in Henan is 1,890, with a主力基差率 of -0.80% [3]. - **Paper Pulp**: The spot price of bleached softwood pulp (Silver Star, Chile) is 5,313, with a主力基差率 of 0.25% [3]. - **Crude Oil**: The spot price of Chinese Shengli crude oil in the Pacific Rim is 658.7, with a主力基差率 of -7.26% [3]. - **Fuel Oil**: The spot price of bonded marine fuel oil 380CST in Zhoushan is 3,879, with a主力基差率 of -3.88% [3]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong is 4,000, with a主力基差率 of 2.67% [3]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The spot price of 0.5% low - sulfur marine fuel oil in Singapore is 4,445, with a主力基差率 of 1195% [3]. - **LPG**: The spot price of LPG in Guangzhou is 6,098, with a主力基差率 of -3.85% [3]. 3.5 Stock Index Futures - **CSI 300**: The spot price is 4,687.6, with a主力基差率 of 0.25% [3]. - **SSE 50**: The spot price is 2,966.4, with a主力基差率 of 0.17% [3]. - **CSI 500**: The spot price is 8,359.5, with a主力基差率 of 0.70% [3].

Report Date - The report date is March 13, 2026 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Due to the limited actual release speed of the strategic petroleum reserve and the unresolved conflict between the US and Iran, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to intensify market volatility. The crude oil market first experiences a short - term decline and then fluctuates upwards, while the plastic and chemical sector opens high and closes low. The driving logic of polyolefins will gradually change from single cost - support to dual - drive of "cost increase and substantial supply contraction". In the short term, the reality of blocked upstream raw materials, device production cuts, and controlled - selling will continue to support high prices. However, the subsequent evolution of the market will highly depend on the situation in the Middle East. If the blockade exceeds expectations, it will strengthen the supply - driven factor and push up prices [6] Market Review and Outlook - Crude oil market fluctuates. The plastic and chemical sector opens high and closes low. L2605 of linear low - density polyethylene closes at 8,236 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan/ton (4.17%), with a trading volume of 1.238 million lots and an increase in positions of 4,953 lots to 327,626 lots. PP2605 closes at 8,303 yuan/ton, up 324 yuan (4.06%), with a decrease in positions of 10,939 lots to 410,800 lots. The release of the strategic petroleum reserve shows the attitude of major consumer countries to intervene in energy prices, but the released reserves cannot quickly turn into the daily effective market flow. The IEA significantly lowers the oil supply growth forecast, expecting the supply in March to drop to the lowest level since Q1 2022 [6] Industry News - On March 12, 2026, the inventory level of major producers is 800,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 4.76%. The inventory in the same period last year was 820,000 tons. PE market prices show a mixed trend. The price of LLDPE in North China is 7,600 - 8,600 yuan/ton, in East China is 7,900 - 8,200 yuan/ton, and in South China is 8,150 - 8,850 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market is temporarily 8,300 - 8,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 475 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Due to cost pressure, downstream factories' enthusiasm for purchasing propylene decreases, and overall propylene demand declines. PP market shows signs of recovery. The mainstream price of drawing materials in North China is 7,800 - 8,100 yuan/ton, in East China is 7,800 - 8,100 yuan/ton, and in South China is 7,950 - 8,500 yuan/ton [7] Data Overview - The report includes data such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, and the settlement price of the crude oil futures main contract, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][14] Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan) | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2701 | 7,780 | 7,719 | 7,942 | 7,666 | 226 | 3.02 | 2,085 | 280 | | Plastic 2605 | 8,400 | 8,236 | 8,617 | 8,190 | 330 | 4.17 | 327,108 | 4,435 | | Plastic 2609 | 7,855 | 7,934 | 8,264 | 7,855 | 352 | 4.64 | 134,486 | 16,770 | | PP2701 | 7,400 | 7,448 | 7,630 | 7,291 | 249 | 3.46 | 10,706 | - 32 | | PP2605 | 8,399 | 8,303 | 8,697 | 8,270 | 324 | 4.06 | 410,773 | - 10,939 | | PP2609 | 7,700 | 7,751 | 8,120 | 7,646 | 301 | 4.04 | 164,282 | 15,067 | [5]

Report Overview - The report is a daily analysis of core futures varieties, released on March 9, 2026 [3] Market Performance Futures Market Summary - As of the close on March 9, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Contracts such as container shipping to Europe, SC crude oil, etc., hit the daily limit. Methanol rose over 11%, palm oil rose over 6%, and caustic soda and coking coal rose over 5%. In terms of declines, Shanghai tin and palladium fell over 2%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also showed varying degrees of decline [5][6] Capital Flows - As of 15:19 on March 9, funds flowed into contracts such as CSI 1000 2603 (5.594 billion), CSI 300 2603 (2.496 billion), and CSI 500 2603 (2.195 billion). Funds flowed out of contracts such as Shanghai gold 2604 (1.324 billion), coking coal 2605 (945 million), and 10 - year treasury bond 2606 (755 million) [6] Market Analysis Copper - The Shanghai copper market opened low and weakened during the day. It is expected that the production in March will increase by 52,800 tons month - on - month and 6.51% year - on - year, possibly reaching a record high. The recycled copper market is tight, and smelting is difficult. Downstream demand is increasing, but inventory is still accumulating. The copper price is affected by macro and financial factors and is expected to be weak in the short term [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and closed higher, showing a volatile and strong trend. The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. The开工 rate dropped, and the production in February decreased significantly. The inventory is being depleted, but the rate is narrowing. The terminal demand is affected by the Middle East conflict. The market is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [10] Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April. EIA data shows that US crude oil inventory increased more than expected. The Middle East situation is tense, with the Iran - Israel conflict and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. The price of crude oil is expected to be strong and volatile, and attention should be paid to the Middle East situation [11][12] Asphalt - The asphalt supply side: the开工 rate increased slightly last week, and the expected production in March increased. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. The price is expected to rise with the crude oil price, and attention should be paid to the shortage of domestic refinery raw materials [13][15] PP - The downstream开工 rate of PP increased, and the enterprise开工 rate decreased. The inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is affected by the Middle East situation, and the supply - demand pattern has improved. It is expected to be strong and volatile, and attention should be paid to the downstream resumption of production and the Middle East situation [16] Plastic - The plastic开工 rate is at a neutral - high level. The downstream开工 rate increased, and the inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is affected by the Middle East situation, and new production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected to be strong and volatile, and attention should be paid to the downstream resumption of production and the Middle East situation [17][18] PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price increased. The PVC开工 rate decreased slightly, and the downstream开工 rate increased. The export situation improved, but the inventory is still high. The price is expected to be strong and volatile due to policy and cost factors [19] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and hit the daily limit, then opened the limit in the afternoon. The mine开工 rate increased, but the downstream demand is weak. The price is affected by the geopolitical situation, and the follow - up trend depends on the duration of the conflict [21] Urea - Urea opened with a daily limit and then fell back. The spot market is affected by the Middle East conflict. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is in the peak season. The price is expected to be stable after the market sentiment calms down [22]