日期 2025 年 8 月 26 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 聚烯烃日报 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 日期 2025 年 8 月 22 日 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | ...

Report Overview - Report Date: August 21, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Polyolefin Daily Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The chemical industry is undergoing adjustments to address over - capacity. The futures market of polyolefins shows a weak trend with cautious trading. The supply - side pressure of PP is increasing as more devices restart, while the supply of PE is relatively neutral. The downstream consumption shows some improvement but has a weaker outlook compared to the same period last year. Polyolefins are expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the demand improvement and inventory reduction in the second half of the month [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market Quotes**: The prices of plastic and PP futures contracts generally rose. For example, plastic 2601 closed at 7347 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (0.37%); PP2601 closed at 7056 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (0.40%) [3]. - **Market Situation**: The futures market remained weak, with cautious trading. Traders offered discounts, and downstream buyers mainly purchased at low prices. The upstream device operating rate continued to increase. The supply - side pressure of PP increased due to the restart of devices, and the supply of PE was relatively neutral. The downstream operating rates of some industries increased, but the peak - season expectations were weaker than last year [4]. 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: On August 20, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 78.5 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons (1.88%) from the previous working day, compared with 79.5 tons in the same period last year [5]. - **PE Market**: The PE market price was weakly adjusted. The LLDPE prices in North, East, and South China were in the ranges of 7130 - 7430 yuan/ton, 7240 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 7380 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively [5]. - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 6380 - 6400 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. Some restarted devices led to sufficient supply, and producers slightly lowered prices to promote sales [5]. - **PP Market**: The domestic PP market continued to decline, with a decline of 20 - 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of North, East, and South China were in the ranges of 6850 - 7000 yuan/ton, 6880 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6830 - 7080 yuan/ton respectively [6]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides data on futures market quotes, including opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, and open interest changes of different plastic and PP futures contracts [3]. - There are also some figures related to inventory, such as two - oil inventories and their year - on - year changes, but specific data is not described in detail in the text [9].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Polyethylene Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [1] Group 2: Analyst Information - Analysts: Dai Yifan (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0015428), Gu Hengye (Futures Practice License No.: F03143348) [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 3: Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - Polyethylene Price Range Forecast (Monthly): 7200 - 7400 [3] - Current Volatility (20 - day rolling): 9.94% [3] - Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 - year): 11.1% [3] - Inventory Management Strategy: For high - level finished product inventory, sell L2509 futures at 25% ratio in the range of 7350 - 7400 and sell L2510C7400 call options at 50% ratio in the range of 50 - 100 [3] - Procurement Management Strategy: For low - level procurement inventory, buy L2509 futures at 50% ratio in the range of 7200 - 7250 and sell L2510P7200 put options at 75% ratio in the range of 30 - 70 [3] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Polyolefin market follows macro - sentiment and coking coal price fluctuations. PE is moving towards a supply - demand growth pattern. Supply is increasing as the maintenance season ends, and demand is transitioning from off - season to peak season but with a slow recovery speed. Near - term PE supply - demand pressure is not large, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation if demand recovery is less than expected [4] Group 5: Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factor: Demand is expected to improve after August [5] - Bearish Factors: Jilin Petrochemical has recently started production, and ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE plant is expected to start production in August - September. LLDPE inventory is at a high level [6] Group 6: Market Data Futures Prices and Spreads - Plastic Main Contract Basis: 8 yuan/ton on August 14, with a daily change of 26 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 30 yuan/ton [7] - L01 Contract Price: 7343 yuan/ton on August 14, a daily decrease of 38 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 21 yuan/ton [7] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - North China Spot Price: 7290 yuan/ton on August 14, unchanged daily and an increase of 80 yuan/ton weekly [9] - East China Spot Price: 7360 yuan/ton on August 14, unchanged daily and an increase of 40 yuan/ton weekly [9] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Brent Crude Oil Price: 66 dollars/barrel on August 14, unchanged daily and a decrease of 0.8 dollars/barrel weekly [9] - US Ethane Price: 0.2026 dollars/gallon on August 14, a daily decrease of 0.0024 dollars/gallon and a weekly decrease of 0.0137 dollars/gallon [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide a specific overall investment rating for the energy and chemical industry. However, individual product outlooks suggest a mix of trends, with many products expected to be in a state of "oscillation" or "oscillation with a downward bias" in the short - term [9][11][13]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The IEA monthly report indicates that in 2026, the global oil surplus will reach a record high due to slowed demand growth and increased supply. The oil market is currently under pressure, and the chemical industry chain is likely to face an oversupply situation. High - inventory varieties may experience a small - scale adjustment, and the future demand trend will determine the performance of the January contracts [2][3]. - The stock market is performing strongly, while the oil market is weak. The seasonal peak of global aviation kerosene demand is about to subside, which has a negative impact on medium - distillate products [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs A. Market Overview - **Crude Oil**: International crude oil futures are in a state of oscillatory consolidation. Geopolitical concerns have eased, but supply pressure still exists. The EIA data shows that the demand at the refinery level in the US in the week of August 8th was relatively strong, but the overall inventory of crude oil and petroleum products increased, which is bearish. The meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15th may reduce concerns about Russian oil supply and the geopolitical premium [2][9]. - **Stock Market**: The US stock market has soared to a record high due to mild inflation data, and the stock markets in other regions of the world are also performing well [2]. B. Product - Specific Analysis - **Asphalt**: It has fallen below the important support level of 3500 yuan. The futures price is moving in the direction of least resistance. The increase in OPEC+ production, potential tariff hikes, and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are all negative factors. The demand for asphalt is not optimistic, and its valuation is relatively high [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a weak oscillatory state. The increase in supply due to OPEC+ production hikes, the increase in import tariffs in China, weak demand in the US gasoline and Middle - East power - generation sectors, and the weakening of the three driving factors (Russia - Ukraine conflict, local refinery procurement, and the Palestine - Israel conflict) all contribute to the supply - demand imbalance [11][12]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its futures price is oscillating weakly following the trend of crude oil. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, the substitution of green energy and high - sulfur fuel oil, and the increase in domestic refined - oil supply pressure [13]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and it is in an oscillatory state. The production profit is relatively high, but the downstream olefins are under pressure due to the decline in oil prices. There may be opportunities for long - positions in the far - month contracts [29]. - **Urea**: Supported by orders and market sentiment, the futures price has temporarily stabilized and strengthened. The supply - side maintenance has slowed down, and the daily production is at a high level. The market is mainly supported by pending orders and macro - sentiment, and its future trend depends on actual demand [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The cost support has weakened, and the price is in an oscillatory state. The supply change is limited, and the downstream polyester load is stable, but the overall sales performance is poor [22][23]. - **PX**: The cost support has weakened again, and the entire polyester chain is in a downward trend. The supply pressure continues, and the cost support in the short - term has weakened. The short - term price will fluctuate at a low level following the upstream cost [15]. - **PTA**: The cost support has weakened, the sales performance is mediocre, and the warehouse - receipt pressure has increased. The supply has increased while the demand has weakened, and the short - term price will follow the cost for low - level consolidation [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Market sentiment has cooled down, and inventory replenishment is cautious. The upstream raw material price has declined, the cost support is weak, and the short - term price will oscillate at a low level [25][26]. - **Bottle Chips**: The cost support has weakened, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The upstream polymerization cost support has declined, and the overall supply - demand situation has changed little [26][27]. - **PP**: Supply still exists, and it is in an oscillatory state. The coal and oil markets have an impact on it. The supply side is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - peak to peak season transition, with a slow increase in downstream开工 [35][36]. - **Propylene**: Supported by spot maintenance, the PP - PL spread around 600 yuan is considered reasonable, and PL is in a short - term oscillatory state. The PDH enterprises in some areas are under maintenance, and the spot market is temporarily stable [36]. - **Plastic**: The maintenance rate has decreased, and the inventory has increased. It is in an oscillatory state. Oil prices are oscillating weakly, the macro - level has capital games, the supply side has pressure, and the demand side is in a slow transition from the off - season to the peak season [33][34]. - **Pure Benzene**: The import volume has decreased, and downstream production capacity has been put into operation. The buying sentiment has increased, and the market structure has changed to Back. The port inventory has decreased, which has boosted market sentiment, and the short - term fundamentals are okay [17][20]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand outlook is still weak. Attention should be paid to the accumulation of factory inventory. The cost support from pure benzene is limited, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak [20][22]. - **PVC**: The cost provides support, and the futures price is oscillating. The macro - policy orientation needs to be concerned. The production is expected to increase, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the cost is expected to rise [39]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has stabilized, and the market is cautiously optimistic. The macro - policy orientation needs to be concerned. The fundamentals have improved marginally, with increased demand from the alumina industry, improved export orders, and high - level production [40]. C. Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides inter - period spread data for various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing different trends of change [41]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It includes basis and warehouse - receipt data for products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices and the inventory situation [42]. - **Inter - product Spread**: Data on inter - product spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are presented, which helps in analyzing the relative valuation between different products [44].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Futures are oscillating warmly, but the sentiment of the spot market is not significantly boosted. The prices of producers are mostly stable, and traders are mainly focused on active sales. Downstream procurement remains cautious, with purchases based on low - price and just - in - time needs. - The upstream device operating load continues to increase. Although the PP maintenance loss is still at a high level, the impact of maintenance is decreasing. With the approaching of new capacity release plans, the pressure of supply increase is gradually emerging. - The downstream factories are still affected by the off - season, and the willingness to stock up is low. It is expected that the demand will gradually emerge from the off - season in the second half of the month. - The cost - side support is somewhat differentiated. Coal prices are likely to rise, while oil prices may fall again. - The fundamental loose pattern will continue to restrict the upward space. With the release of new capacity and the expected stocking demand in the "Golden September" peak season in the second half of the month, the polyolefin prices may show a trend of bottom - building through oscillation followed by a rebound [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market**: The plastic 2509 contract closed at 7314 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (0.27%), with a trading volume of 176,000 lots and a decrease in positions. The PP main contract closed at 7095 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan (0.41%), with a decrease in positions. - **Supply**: The upstream device operating load is increasing. The impact of PP maintenance is decreasing, and new capacity release plans are approaching. For PE, new capacity has been put into operation in July, and more is expected in August. - **Demand**: Downstream factories are in the off - season, with low stocking willingness. It is expected that demand will improve in the second half of the month. - **Cost**: Coal prices are likely to rise, while oil prices may fall [4]. 3.2 Industry News - On August 11, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 835,000 tons, a 12.08% increase from the previous working day, the same as the same period last year. - The PE market prices fluctuated slightly. The LLDPE prices in North, East, and South China were in the ranges of 7180 - 7410 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7650 yuan/ton, and 7320 - 7700 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Futures Market Data**: Tables show the opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change rates, open interest, and open interest changes of plastic and PP futures contracts [3]. - **Other Data**: Graphs present information such as L and PP basis, L - PP spread, and crude oil futures settlement prices. The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market increased by 245 yuan/ton to 6500 - 6580 yuan/ton. The PP market was slightly adjusted, with different price ranges in North, East, and South China [7][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - From the PE fundamentals, the near - term pressure is still high as downstream orders haven't improved and restocking demand is limited. Although there was a short - term increase in speculative demand on Monday and Tuesday this week, today's trading volume dropped significantly. Also, PE has been accumulating inventory for four consecutive weeks, with LLDPE inventory reaching a historical high. So, there is still significant pressure above PE. However, from the expected level, the current stage may be the weakest for PE demand, and downstream orders are expected to gradually recover in August, driving demand to pick up. Therefore, PE doesn't have a strong downward drive either. In conclusion, PE is mainly affected by external factors recently and lacks its own directional drive [4] Content Summary by Related Catalogs Price Prediction and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range prediction for polyethylene is 7200 - 7400, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 9.94% and its historical percentile (3 - year) at 11.1% [3] - For inventory management when the finished product inventory is high and worried about price drops: To prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short plastic futures (L2509, sell, 25%, entry range 7350 - 7400) to lock in profits and compensate for production costs; they can also sell call options (L2509C7400, sell, 50%, entry range 10 - 50) to collect premiums and reduce costs [3] - For procurement management when the regular inventory is low and purchasing according to orders: To prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising polyethylene prices, enterprises can buy plastic futures (L2509, buy, 50%, entry range 7150 - 7200) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance; they can also sell put options (L2509P7200, sell, 75%, entry range 10 - 50) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the polyethylene price drops [3] Core Contradictions - Near - term pressure on PE fundamentals is high due to poor downstream orders and limited restocking demand. Although there was short - term speculative demand, today's trading volume decreased. PE has been accumulating inventory for four consecutive weeks, especially LLDPE. However, the current stage may be the weakest for PE demand, and downstream orders are expected to recover in August [4] 利多解读 - The "anti - involution" policy drives up the price of coking coal, providing cost support for polyolefins. The demand is expected to improve after August [5] 利空解读 - Jilin Petrochemical's recent production launch. The current restocking willingness of downstream is limited, and the spot price lacks support. PE inventory has been accumulating for four consecutive weeks, with a large increase in LLDPE inventory [6] Daily Data - **Futures prices and spreads**: On August 7, 2025, the plastic main basis was - 22 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 24 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 3 yuan/ton. L01 contract was 7364 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton daily and 35 yuan/ton weekly. L05 contract was 7363 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton daily and 27 yuan/ton weekly. L09 contract was 7297 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton daily and 53 yuan/ton weekly. The L1 - 5 month spread was 1 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton daily and 8 yuan/ton weekly. The L5 - 9 month spread was 66 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton daily and 26 yuan/ton weekly. The L9 - 1 month spread was - 67 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton daily and 18 yuan/ton weekly. The L - P spread was 222 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton daily and 10 yuan/ton weekly [7] - **Spot prices and regional spreads**: On August 7, 2025, the spot price in North China was 7210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton daily and down 50 yuan/ton weekly. In East China, it was 7320 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 70 yuan/ton weekly. In South China, it was 7290 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 30 yuan/ton weekly. The East China - North China spread was 110 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton daily and 20 yuan/ton weekly. The East China - South China spread was 30 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 40 yuan/ton weekly [9] - **Non - standard and standard product spreads**: On August 7, 2025, the spread between HDPE film and LLDPE film was 475 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 75 yuan/ton weekly. The spread between HDPE hollow and LLDPE film was 250 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and weekly. The spread between HDPE injection and LLDPE film was 150 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 25 yuan/ton weekly. The spread between HDPE drawing and LLDPE film was 500 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 75 yuan/ton weekly. The spread between HDPE pipe and LLDPE film was 1425 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 50 yuan/ton weekly. The spread between LDPE film and LLDPE film was 2275 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 150 yuan/ton weekly [9] - **Upstream prices and processing profits**: On August 7, 2025, the Brent crude oil price was 67 dollars/barrel, unchanged daily and down 4.81 dollars/barrel weekly. The US ethane price was 0.215 dollars/gallon, unchanged daily and up 0.0017 dollars/gallon weekly. The northwest coal price was 545 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and weekly. The East China methanol price was 2395 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 25 yuan/ton weekly. The oil - based PE profit was 550.1823 yuan/ton daily and 900.9701 yuan/ton weekly. The coal - based PE profit was 363 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 211.25 yuan/ton weekly. The profit from purchasing methanol externally to produce PE was - 355 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 200 yuan/ton weekly. The profit from purchasing ethane externally to produce PE was 1849 yuan/ton, up 3.2524 yuan/ton daily and down 61.9009 yuan/ton weekly. The profit from purchasing ethylene externally to produce PE was 406.7415 yuan/ton daily and 371.4526 yuan/ton weekly [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper market is currently facing weak downstream demand, which is putting pressure on copper prices. However, low inventory levels and expectations of a Fed rate cut are providing some support, leading to a situation where copper prices are expected to oscillate under pressure [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Although there are expectations of supply contraction, the actual production has not been affected yet. The market sentiment is cooling down, and the supply - demand situation remains loose, so the market is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **Crude Oil**: With the seasonal travel peak and the complex situation of inventory changes, OPEC+ production adjustment, geopolitical factors, and economic concerns, crude oil prices are expected to oscillate [10]. - **Asphalt**: The supply and demand situation is complex, with cost support weakening and policy having limited impact on the near - term. Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate in the near future [11][12]. - **PP**: The supply is increasing, the demand recovery is slow, and there is no actual policy implementation yet. PP prices are expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - **Plastic**: The开工 rate is at a neutral level, demand recovery is slow, and there is no actual policy implementation. Plastic prices are expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15]. - **PVC**: With weak demand, high inventory, and new production capacity, PVC prices are expected to oscillate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply may be reduced due to inspections, but downstream resistance to price increases exists. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [17]. - **Urea**: With expected production reduction and increasing demand, the downside space of the market is limited despite the recent price correction [18]. Summary by Catalog Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 6, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Coking coal rose over 6%, silicon ferroalloy rose over 4%, and industrial silicon and polysilicon rose over 3%. SC crude oil and caustic soda fell nearly 1%. Among stock index futures, IM rose 1.34%, IC rose 1.09%, IF rose 0.37%, and IH rose 0.19%. Among bond futures, TS and TF rose 0.02%, T remained flat, and TL fell 0.04% [4]. - As of 15:22 on August 6, in terms of capital flow, IM 2509, coking coal 2601, and IC 2509 had capital inflows of 2.573 billion, 1.655 billion, and 1.173 billion respectively. Palm oil 2509, Shanghai gold 2510, and IF 2509 had capital outflows of 869 million, 683 million, and 536 million respectively [4]. Specific Commodity Analysis - **Copper**: The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI declined. Domestically, copper production increased in July, TC/RC fees are negative but rising, and there are factory maintenance plans in the third quarter. Demand is weak in the off - season, and potential tariff on semi - finished products may affect exports. Low inventory supports prices, but weak demand pressures prices [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price declined slightly. Supply may be reduced as there are many reports of maintenance and production suspension, but there is a risk of news falsification. Cost support is weakening, and demand is expected to increase. The supply - demand situation remains loose, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Entering the seasonal travel peak, US crude oil inventory is low, but there is a significant unexpected increase in inventory according to the EIA report. OPEC+ will increase production in September, and geopolitical factors may affect supply. The market is worried about economic slowdown in the US, and prices are expected to oscillate [10]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, but the production in August is expected to decrease compared to July. Downstream demand is restricted by funds and weather. Inventory is at a low level, cost support is weakening, and prices are expected to oscillate [11][12]. - **PP**: The downstream开工 rate is low, and the upstream propane import is restricted. New production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and the inventory pressure is high. With no actual policy implementation, prices are expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - **Plastic**: The开工 rate is at a neutral level, and the downstream开工 rate is low. New production capacity is put into operation, and the inventory pressure is high. With no actual policy implementation, prices are expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15]. - **PVC**: The supply开工 rate is high, and the demand is weak. New production capacity has been tested, and the inventory pressure is high. Prices are expected to oscillate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rose significantly. The Mongolian coal customs clearance is high, and domestic coal mines may reduce production due to inspections. Inventory is being transferred downstream, and the downstream demand may be affected by the decline in iron - water production. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [17]. - **Urea**: The price showed a mixed trend. Production is expected to decrease slightly, and demand is increasing. The market's downside space is limited [18].

Report Summary 1. Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7200 - 7500 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.94% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 11.1% [2]. - For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high, the recommended strategies are to short L2509 futures at a 25% ratio in the 7400 - 7450 yuan range and sell L2509C7500 call options at a 50% ratio in the 10 - 50 yuan range [2]. - For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, the recommended strategies are to buy L2509 futures at a 50% ratio in the 7150 - 7200 yuan range and sell L2509P7200 put options at a 75% ratio in the 10 - 50 yuan range [2]. 2. Core Contradiction - The polyolefin market was driven up by coking coal in the afternoon. PE fundamentals have seen little change recently. Near - term pressure is high, with weak downstream orders, limited restocking demand, and a significant decline in PE spot trading volume. PE has been accumulating inventory for four consecutive weeks, with LLDPE inventory at a historical high. However, the current stage may be the weakest for PE demand, and downstream orders are expected to recover in August, driving demand improvement. PE is mainly affected by external factors and lacks a clear directional driver [3]. 3. Positive and Negative Factors - Positive factors include the "anti - involution" policy driving up coking coal prices, providing cost support for polyolefins, and the expected improvement in demand after August [4]. - Negative factors include the recent commissioning of Jilin Petrochemical, limited downstream restocking willingness, and continuous four - week inventory accumulation in PE, especially significant in LLDPE [8]. 4. Market Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day, the plastic main basis decreased by 49 yuan/ton to - 63 yuan/ton. The prices of L01, L05, and L09 contracts increased, with changes of 36, 31, and 44 yuan/ton respectively [6]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: On August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day, spot prices in North China, East China, and South China decreased or remained unchanged. The East China - North China spread remained unchanged, and the East China - South China spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton [9]. - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads**: The spreads between various HDPE products and LLDPE film, as well as LDPE film and LLDPE film, showed different degrees of change on August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day [9]. - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: On August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day, Brent crude oil prices remained unchanged, and the prices of US ethane, Northwest coal, and East China methanol changed slightly. The processing profits of different PE production methods also showed different degrees of change [9].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - "Anti-involution" speculative funds exited the market, causing the urea futures to decline, leading to the release of spot and futures sources, and the urea spot market will face pressure. In the medium term, the second batch of urea exports will support the demand side. There are traders picking up goods for export, and inventory may not accumulate significantly in the short term. Factory backlogs and inventory pressures are not large, and spot quotes fluctuate slightly, supporting urea prices. With the gradual opening of export channels, there may be a phased rebound. However, agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will continue to face pressure in the second half of the year. Overall, urea is in a pattern with support below and suppression above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [4] - Urea exports have been confirmed. Urea futures are mainly priced speculatively in the context of strong market speculation, so the futures are expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern with enhanced support below. Domestic policy suppression and the association's requirement for factories to sell urea at low prices have a negative impact on the spot sentiment [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Price Range Forecast - Urea price range forecast (monthly) is 1650 - 1950, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 27.16% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 62.1%. Methanol's price range is 2200 - 2400, with a volatility of 20.01% and a percentile of 51.2%. Polypropylene and plastic both have a price range of 6800 - 7400, with volatilities of 10.56% and 15.24% and percentiles of 42.2% and 78.5% respectively [3] Urea Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When finished - product inventory is high and worried about urea price decline, for a long spot position, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short urea futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can sell UR2509 and buy UR2509P1850 with a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 1800 - 1950. Buying put options to prevent large price drops and selling call options to reduce capital costs. Buying put options has a 50% hedging ratio, and selling UR2509C1950 has a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 45 - 60 [3] Procurement Management - When procurement of regular inventory is low and wants to purchase according to orders, for a short spot position, to prevent the increase of procurement costs due to rising urea prices, buy urea futures at the current stage to lock in procurement costs. Buy UR2509 with a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 1750 - 1900. Selling put options to collect premiums to reduce procurement costs and lock in the purchase price if the urea price drops. Sell UR2509P1750 with a 75% hedging ratio in the range of 20 - 25 [3]