宝城期货能化板块数据周报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 10 月 10 日 能化板块 核心观点 能源化工：受美国联邦政府陷入"停摆"影响，节后国内外原 油期货价格呈现偏弱格局。其中，国内原油期货 2511 合约跌幅较大。 在弱势成本因素凸显的背景下，拖累其他能源化工商品期货也出现弱 势下行的走势。除了成本因素外，其他商品受库存回升压制，继续维 持偏弱姿态运行。短期来看，成本因子依然是决定后市能化商品走势 的重要因素，预计在原油期货价格偏弱拖累下，下周能化商品期货板 块或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 10 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研 ...

日期 2025 年 9 月 30 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 聚烯烃日报 行业 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Affected by the Fed's cautious rate - cut expectations, the copper price is still on a strong trend due to tight fundamentals, though the upward momentum is weaker than the previous day [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: With supply and demand gradually tightening, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the short term, supported by the peak - season and pre - holiday stocking expectations [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: The supply - demand of crude oil is weakening. It is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - to - long term [12]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner due to high supply - demand pressure of crude oil and limited follow - up of spot prices [13][14]. - **PP**: PP is expected to fluctuate as the peak - season demand falls short of expectations and there is no actual anti - involution policy [15]. - **Plastic**: The plastic market is expected to fluctuate as the peak - season demand is underwhelming and no anti - involution policy has been implemented [17]. - **PVC**: PVC is expected to face downward pressure in the near term as downstream pre - holiday stocking ends and new capacity comes on stream [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: Attention should be paid to the price transmission between upstream and downstream after the price increase and the macro - market during the National Day holiday [20]. - **Urea**: The urea market is in a state of bottom - grinding with weak fundamentals and limited upward momentum [21][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: As of September 26th, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Red dates rose nearly 3%, and silver rose over 2%, while coke and coking coal fell over 2% [6]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:16 on September 26th, funds flowed into CSI 1000 2512, silver 2512, and CSI 500 2512, while flowing out of SSE 50 2512, copper 2511, and iron ore 2601 [7]. 3.2 Individual Commodity Analysis - **Copper**: The supply of refined copper remains tight due to smelter overhauls and reduced scrap copper supply. The demand is driven by pre - holiday replenishment [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is affected by the reduction of lithium mica - sourced production, and the demand for pre - holiday stocking is ending [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ production adjustment will increase the pressure in Q4. The travel peak season is over, but there are factors such as geopolitical risks and inventory changes [12]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is restricted by funds and weather. The cost support is strengthening, but the follow - up supply - demand pressure of crude oil is high [13][14]. - **PP**: The downstream开工率 is rising, but the peak - season demand is weak. There are new capacity releases and inventory reduction by petrochemical enterprises [15]. - **Plastic**: The开工率 is increasing, and the agricultural film is entering the peak season, but the peak - season effect is not obvious [17]. - **PVC**: The supply is increasing, the export expectation is weakening, and the inventory pressure is high. The cost support is strengthening [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: The mine output is increasing, and the downstream inventory is piling up. Attention should be paid to the price increase and holiday market [20]. - **Urea**: The daily output is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high [21][22].

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 26 日 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 | 表1：期货市场行情 | ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 25 日 每日报告 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 | 表1：期货市场行情 | ...

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - As of the close on September 24, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Glass rose nearly 5%, fuel oil rose over 3%, and container shipping to Europe, polysilicon, and soda ash rose over 2%. In terms of declines, rapeseed meal fell nearly 3%, rapeseed oil fell over 1%, and lithium carbonate and soybean meal fell nearly 1%. Stock index futures of CSI 300 (IF), SSE 50 (IH), CSI 500 (IC), and CSI 1000 (IM) rose 1.69%, 0.94%, 3.90%, and 3.22% respectively. Treasury bond futures of 2-year (TS), 5-year (TF), 10-year (T), and 30-year (TL) fell 0.03%, 0.08%, 0.10%, and 0.41% respectively [5] - As of 15:31 on September 24, in terms of capital inflow of domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai Gold 2512 inflowed 1.12 billion yuan, CSI 500 2512 inflowed 616 million yuan, and Shanghai Silver 2512 inflowed 424 million yuan. In terms of capital outflow, CSI 1000 2512 outflowed 3.235 billion yuan, CSI 300 2512 outflowed 2.086 billion yuan, and rapeseed oil 2601 outflowed 434 million yuan [7] 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher, showing a strong oscillation. The supply of copper concentrate and refined copper is tight. The TC/RC fees are weakly stable, and smelters' profitability is under pressure. The supply of scrap copper will decrease significantly in September, and the import of refined copper has declined. The demand is driven by pre - holiday restocking, but overseas macro factors still impact copper prices, and copper prices fluctuate narrowly [9] - **Crude Oil**: The peak travel season for crude oil is over. The overall oil inventory in the US has increased, and the refinery operating rate has declined. OPEC+ will implement a production adjustment in October 2025, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The price of Saudi Aramco's flagship product has been cut. The geopolitical situation and demand concerns co - exist, and it is recommended to short on rallies [10][11] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt开工率 has slightly declined but is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The expected production in September has increased. The downstream operating rate has risen, but is restricted by funds and weather. The inventory is at a low level, and the cost support has weakened. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will oscillate downward [12] - **PP**: The downstream operating rate of PP has rebounded, and the enterprise operating rate has increased. The cost has rebounded due to the oil price. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the demand in the peak season is less than expected. It is expected that PP will oscillate [14] - **Plastic**: The plastic开工率 has declined, and the downstream operating rate has increased. The cost has rebounded. New production capacity is being put into operation, and the demand in the peak season is less than expected. It is expected that plastic will oscillate [15][16] - **PVC**: The PVC开工率 has decreased, and the downstream operating rate has increased. The export expectation has weakened, and the inventory pressure is large. The real - estate market is still in adjustment. The cost support is strengthening, and it is expected that PVC will be under pressure and decline [17] - **Urea**: Urea opened high and moved low, with a slightly strong oscillation. The spot sentiment has improved slightly, but the price is still weak. The daily production has recovered, and the demand is mainly for pre - holiday restocking. The inventory is high, and the supply - demand is loose. The upward space of the futures price is limited [18][19]

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 24 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 23 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper remain tight. Domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly, supporting the upward movement of copper prices. It is recommended to buy on dips in moderation [9]. - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are gradually tightening, and its price is expected to be strong in the short term [11]. - The supply and demand of crude oil will weaken. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium and long term. Recently, the oil price is oscillating, and it is advised to wait and see [12]. - The supply and demand of asphalt will both increase, and its price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see [14]. - PP is expected to oscillate in the near term with limited downside [16]. - Plastic is expected to oscillate in the near term with limited downside [17]. - The upside space of PVC is expected to be limited in the near term [19]. - Coking coal still maintains a relatively strong trend [20]. - Urea is still building a bottom in oscillation, with a chance of rebound later, but the loose pattern has not reversed [22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 19, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Container shipping to Europe dropped 6%, PX and PTA fell over 2%, and SC crude oil, bottle chips, and staple fiber dropped nearly 2%. In terms of gains, industrial silicon rose over 3%, rapeseed meal rose over 2%, and caustic soda, lithium carbonate, coking coal, and rapeseed oil rose over 1% [6]. - In terms of stock index futures, the main contract of CSI 300 (IF) rose 0.55%, the main contract of SSE 50 (IH) rose 0.34%, the main contract of CSI 500 (IC) rose 0.34%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 (IM) fell 0.21% [6]. - In terms of treasury bond futures, the main contract of 2-year treasury bond futures (TS) fell 0.05%, the main contract of 5-year treasury bond futures (TF) fell 0.13%, the main contract of 10-year treasury bond futures (T) fell 0.21%, and the main contract of 30-year treasury bond futures (TL) fell 0.77% [7]. - As of 15:17 on September 19, in terms of capital inflow of domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai gold 2512 inflowed 2.922 billion yuan, Shanghai silver 2512 inflowed 1.823 billion yuan, and iron ore 2601 inflowed 816 million yuan. In terms of capital outflow, Shanghai copper 2510 outflowed 867 million yuan, SSE 50 2512 outflowed 537 million yuan, and polysilicon 2511 outflowed 284 million yuan [7]. Specific Futures Analysis Shanghai Copper - Today, Shanghai copper opened low and moved high. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years [9]. - As of September 12, China's spot smelting fee (TC) was -$41.42 per dry ton, and the RC fee was -4.16 cents per pound. The TC/RC fees remained weakly stable [9]. - Factory seasonal maintenance plans will still lead to production cuts in September and October. Currently, the profitability of small and medium-sized smelters is under pressure, and the supply of refined copper remains tight [9]. - In August, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1715 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.24% and a year-on-year increase of 15.59%. Affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will decrease significantly, and smelters have maintenance plans in September. It is expected that the electrolytic copper production in September will drop significantly [9]. - Currently, it is approaching the peak season. Although the price has been pushed up recently, the downstream trading atmosphere has improved. The realization of the peak season expectations still needs to be observed [9]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased slightly, with an increase of 6,633 tons compared with last week. The import volume has increased, and the high price has suppressed copper demand, gradually starting the inventory accumulation trend [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and moved high today. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan per ton, a increase of 50 yuan per ton compared with the previous working day; the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 71,250 yuan per ton, a increase of 50 yuan per ton compared with the previous working day. The spot transaction price continued to rise in an oscillating manner [10]. - On the supply side, affected by the mine license, the proportion of lithium carbonate produced from lepidolite raw materials has dropped to 15%. Spodumene has gradually become the most important raw material for lithium carbonate. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of the Jiangxi Jianxiawo mining area. Currently, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate is at a relatively high level year-on-year [11]. - On the demand side, the total domestic demand for lithium carbonate in August reached 102,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.49%. According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, the customer collection in the first half of September increased by 1.2% compared with the same period in August and decreased by 8.8% compared with the second half of August. The orders in the first half of September increased by 2.0% compared with the same period in August and decreased by 16.6% compared with the second half of August. Before the double festivals, the downstream restocking sentiment has improved [11]. Crude Oil - The peak travel season for crude oil is basically over. Currently, EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have decreased significantly more than expected, but refined oil inventories have increased more than expected, alleviating the previous supply concerns. The overall oil product inventory continues to increase, and the operating rate of US refineries has dropped by 1.6 percentage points [12]. - On September 7, eight OPEC+ countries decided to adjust the production by 137,000 barrels per day from the additional voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023, which will be implemented starting from October 2025. This 1.65 million barrels per day of production can be partially or fully restored according to market conditions and will be carried out in a gradual manner [12]. - This will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The latest IEA monthly report has raised the surplus amplitude of crude oil again. Saudi Aramco has lowered the shipping price of its flagship product, Arab Light crude oil, to Asia in October by $1 per barrel [12]. - Currently, after the discount of Russian crude oil has widened, India continues to import Russian crude oil, and India and the US are still in negotiations. Attention should be paid to the progress of the ceasefire agreement negotiation between Russia and Ukraine and India's procurement of Russian crude oil [12]. - The subsequent consumption peak season is about to end. The weak US non-farm payrolls data has made the market worried about crude oil demand, and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases. The supply and demand of crude oil will weaken. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium and long term [12]. - Recently, the previous sharp drop in crude oil prices has partially released the negative impact of the OPEC+ meeting. The market may focus on whether Europe and the US will increase sanctions on Russian crude oil [12]. - Trump said that Putin was disappointing and urged countries to stop buying oil from Russia, but at the same time said that the oil price needed to be further lowered to force Russia to withdraw from the Russia-Ukraine conflict [12]. - In addition, countries such as Iraq have submitted the latest compensation plans, with a cumulative compensation of 4.779 million barrels per day, of which the compensation production in October 2025 is 235,000 barrels per day, alleviating the pressure of supply increase [12]. - Israel launched an attack on the Hamas ceasefire negotiation delegation in Qatar, and the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has increased. Ukraine has increased its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Crude oil is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [12]. Asphalt - On the supply side, the asphalt operating rate this week decreased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month to 34.4%, which is 6.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The asphalt operating rate has decreased slightly and is still at a relatively low level in recent years [14]. - According to Longzhong Information data, the expected asphalt production in China in September is 2.686 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 273,000 tons, an increase of 11.3%, and a year-on-year increase of 683,000 tons, an increase of 34.1% [14]. - This week, the operating rates of various downstream industries of asphalt have increased. The operating rate of road asphalt has increased by 1.69 percentage points month-on-month to 30.31%, but it is still at the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall and high temperatures in some areas [14]. - This week, North China has mainly executed previous contracts, and the shipment volume has increased significantly. The national shipment volume has increased by 31.10% month-on-month to 313,600 tons, at a neutral level [14]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries has decreased this week but is still at the lowest level in recent years [14]. - The US has allowed Chevron to resume oil production in Venezuela, which may reduce the discount of asphalt raw materials purchased by China [14]. - Next week, the devices of Dongming Petrochemical, Shandong Jincheng, etc. will operate stably, and Henan Fengli has a plan to resume production. The asphalt production will increase. The weather in the north is okay, and many projects are rushing to work. However, the rainfall in some southern areas has increased, and the funds are restricted. The market is cautious, which affects the demand for asphalt [14]. - Recently, the crude oil futures price has oscillated narrowly, and the cost support for asphalt is limited [14]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP has increased by 0.59 percentage points month-on-month to 51.45%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving has increased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month to 43.6%, and the plastic weaving orders have continued to increase slightly, slightly higher than the same period in the previous two years [15]. - On September 19, the overhaul devices such as the second line of Yangzi Petrochemical restarted. The operating rate of PP enterprises has dropped to about 81%, at a neutral and relatively low level. The production ratio of standard-grade drawn yarn has dropped to about 28.5% [15]. - The destocking of petrochemical enterprises in September is average, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years [15]. - On the cost side, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, in line with market expectations. The inventory of US distillate oil has increased significantly, and the crude oil price has dropped [15]. - On the supply side, the new production capacity of 450,000 tons per year of the second line of CNOOC Ningbo Daxie PP Phase II was put into production at the end of August, and another production line of 450,000 tons per year of the first line of CNOOC Ningbo Daxie PP Phase II was put into production in early September. Recently, the number of overhaul devices has decreased slightly [15]. - The weather has improved, and the downstream is gradually entering the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". The operating rate of plastic weaving continues to increase. Most downstream industries of PP are expected to continue to rise. The pre-holiday restocking of the downstream may bring some boost, but the current peak season demand is lower than expected, and the market lacks large-scale centralized procurement [15]. - There is still no actual anti-involution policy in the PP industry. Of course, anti-involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro policies, which will affect the subsequent market [16]. Plastic - On September 19, the overhaul devices such as Jinghai Chemical's HDPE restarted. The operating rate of plastic has increased to about 86.5%, currently at a neutral level [17]. - The downstream operating rate of PE has increased by 0.75 percentage points month-on-month to 42.92%. The agricultural film is gradually entering the peak season. The orders for agricultural film and the raw material inventory of agricultural film continue to increase, but the growth rate has slowed down. The orders for packaging film have also increased, but the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [17]. - The destocking of petrochemical enterprises in September is average, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years [17]. - On the cost side, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, in line with market expectations. The inventory of US distillate oil has increased significantly, and the crude oil price has dropped [17]. - On the supply side, the new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year of Jilin Petrochemical's HDPE was put into production at the end of July, and the operating rate of plastic has increased [17]. - The agricultural film is gradually entering the peak season, the prices of agricultural film in various regions are stable, and the subsequent demand will further increase. The agricultural film enterprises are continuously restocking before the double festivals, the orders are gradually accumulating, and the operating situation has improved slightly, which may bring some boost, but the current peak season is not as good as expected [17]. - There is still no actual anti-involution policy in the plastic industry. Of course, anti-involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro policies, which will affect the subsequent market [17]. PVC - The price of upstream calcium carbide in the northwest region has continued to increase by 25 yuan per ton [18]. - Currently, on the supply side, the operating rate of PVC has decreased by 2.98 percentage points month-on-month to 76.96%. The operating rate of PVC has decreased and dropped to a neutral and relatively high level in the same period over the years [18]. - During the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", the downstream operating rate of PVC has continued to increase and has begun to exceed the same period last year, but it is still lower than other years [18]. - India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China has raised its quotation in September by $10 - 25 per ton. On August 14, India announced the latest anti-dumping duty on imported PVC, of which the duty on the Chinese mainland has been raised by about $50 per ton. The export expectation of Chinese PVC in the second half of the year has weakened [18]. - However, after the recent decrease in export prices, the export orders have strengthened month-on-month [18]. - This week, the social inventory has continued to increase and is still relatively high, and the inventory pressure is still large [18]. - From January to August 2025, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. The year-on-year decline in investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large, and the year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion have further decreased [19]. - The weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities has decreased month-on-month and is still near the lowest level in the same period over the years. The improvement of the real estate market still needs time [19]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali is still positive, and the operating rate of PVC has increased this week and is still relatively high [19]. - In terms of new production capacity, Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 tons per year production capacity has been put into mass production in August, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 tons per year production capacity is expected to be stably produced at the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 tons per year production capacity was put into production in early September, and Gansu Yaowang's 300,000 tons per year production capacity is in the trial production stage in September [19]. - The anti-involution sentiment has resurfaced, but there is still no actual policy in the PVC industry. Most old devices have been upgraded through technological transformation. Of course, anti-involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro policies, which will affect the subsequent market [19]. - The cost support for PVC has strengthened, and the downstream has restocked before the festival. However, the devices of Heilongjiang Haohua, Gansu Jinchuan, etc. will resume production next week. The basis of PVC is relatively low, and the upside space of

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various commodities and financial products. Some commodities are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend, while others face supply - demand imbalances and price pressures. The Fed's interest rate cut has a certain impact on the market, but its influence varies across different sectors [2][3][49]. Summaries by Commodity Types Energy - **Crude Oil**: The medium - term downward trend remains unchanged. Although short - term geopolitical factors may cause fluctuations in supply, the rebound space is limited. A strategy of combining high - level short positions with call options is recommended [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The increase in domestic refinery operating rates benefits fuel oil feedstock demand, and the growth in Singapore's bunker fuel consumption is concentrated in high - sulfur bunker fuels. The low - sulfur fuel oil export quota has increased, and the supply pressure is not prominent. It is advisable to focus on the strategy of expanding the high - low sulfur spread at low levels [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market is strong, and the domestic market is also positive due to reduced imports in South China and good chemical margins. The short - term oil price ratio is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to the peak - season stocking market [24]. - **Natural Gas**: Not mentioned in the provided content. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, precious metals may enter a phase of consolidation as the Fed's attitude is cautious and the interest rate cut path is relatively mild [3]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price may fall back to the previous support range of 79,000 - 79,500 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Aluminum**: The downstream start - up rate is seasonally rising, and the inventory is likely to be low this year. However, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not shown a turning point. The Shanghai aluminum faces resistance at the March high [5]. - **Zinc**: The LME zinc inventory is low, and the overseas supply is tight. The Shanghai zinc may rebound under the influence of the external market during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. It is advisable to wait for a rebound to go short and also pay attention to the double - buying opportunity of the option's end - of - cycle [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The Shanghai nickel has declined. The pure nickel inventory has increased, and the nickel iron inventory has decreased. The Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate at a low level [10]. - **Lead**: The fundamentals of lead are strong domestically and weak overseas. The lead ingot import window may open, and the Shanghai lead has room for an upward rebound, with the upper limit temporarily seen at 17,300 yuan/ton [9]. Industrial Metals - **Alumina**: The operating capacity has reached a new high, and the supply is in excess. The price is under pressure, and the support level is temporarily seen around 2,830 yuan [7]. - **Zinc**: The LME zinc inventory is low, and the overseas supply is tight. The Shanghai zinc may rebound under the influence of the external market during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. It is advisable to wait for a rebound to go short and also pay attention to the double - buying opportunity of the option's end - of - cycle [8]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has followed the decline of Shanghai aluminum. Due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum and the expected increase in enterprise costs from tax policy adjustments, it may show stronger resilience compared to Shanghai aluminum [6]. Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price is oscillating. The rebar demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. The hot - rolled coil demand is more resilient, and the inventory pressure is relieved. The overall steel price continues to rebound, but the rhythm may be volatile [15]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is supported by high hot - metal production in the short term. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [16]. - **Coke**: The third round of price cuts is in progress. The price is affected by the expectation of coking coal production inspection and "anti - involution." It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is relatively strong due to the high expectation of production inspection and "anti - involution." It is advisable to buy on dips [18]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is rising. The demand is supported by the recovery of hot - metal production, but the high point is restricted by the fundamentals. Attention should be paid to "anti - involution" information [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is rising. The demand is good, but the high point is restricted by the fundamentals. Attention should be paid to "anti - involution" information [20]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The supply is sufficient, and the inventory of production enterprises is increasing. The industrial demand is recovering, and the agricultural demand has a phased replenishment expectation. The market is oscillating at a low level [25]. - **Methanol**: The import volume has decreased, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow in the short term. The high - inventory pressure persists, and the long - term impact of overseas gas restrictions needs attention [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is oscillating. The supply may improve in the third quarter, but the high import volume suppresses market sentiment [27]. - **Styrene**: The supply has decreased, and the demand is supported by good downstream profits. The supply - demand situation has improved [28]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of propylene is expected to increase, and the demand may weaken slightly. The supply - demand situation of polyethylene is gradually improving, while that of polypropylene improves limitedly [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is oscillating strongly. The supply pressure is high, and the demand needs to be observed. Caustic soda is expected to oscillate widely [30]. - **PX & PTA**: The PTA price has rebounded, and the PX price has moved up. The demand for PTA is improving, but the price is still driven by raw materials [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is oscillating at a low level due to the pressure of new - device expectations [32]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The short - fiber price has rebounded, and it is advisable to allocate long positions in the near - term contracts. The bottle - chip market has a slight improvement, but the long - term over - capacity problem persists [33]. Soft Commodities - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The market is affected by the expectation of improved Sino - US economic and trade relations. The supply of soybeans is sufficient in the fourth quarter. The market may oscillate in the short term and is cautiously bullish in the long term [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The prices are falling. The long - term trend is supported by overseas biodiesel policies, and it is advisable to buy on dips [38]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed production is expected to be high, and the export is expected to be low. The domestic rapeseed - related prices are supported by supply bottlenecks but are also under pressure from soybean import expectations [39]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price has reached a new low. The market is affected by the expectation of improved Sino - US economic and trade relations. Attention should be paid to the policy guidance and the performance of new - crop soybeans [40]. - **Corn**: The price is slightly rising. The spot prices vary in different regions. The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom after the new - crop purchase enthusiasm fades [41]. - **Live Hogs**: The spot price is weak, and the supply pressure is high in the second half of the year. It is advisable to wait and see [42]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is slightly weak, and the spot price is strong. It is advisable to consider long positions in the far - month contracts for next year's first half [43]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has declined. The domestic cotton supply is expected to be high, and the demand is still weak. The Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate in the short term [44]. - **Sugar**: The US sugar price is under pressure, and the domestic sugar market has less inventory pressure. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [45]. - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating. The supply of apples is expected to be stable, and the cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected [46]. - **Timber**: The price is oscillating. The supply is low, and the demand is going well during the off - season. The market lacks upward momentum in the short term [47]. - **Paper Pulp**: The price is slightly falling. The inventory is still at a high level, and the supply is relatively loose. It is advisable to wait and see or adopt an oscillatory trading strategy [48]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The stock market is rising. The market style is expected to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors, and the opportunity of the Hang Seng Technology Index can be grasped [49]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond futures price is rising. The yield curve is expected to steepen [50].