地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 2 日 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 商品表现 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 27 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 2 月 27 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现。沪锡涨超 8%，铂涨超 5%，硅 铁涨超 3%，钯、锰硅涨超 2%。跌幅方面，氧化铝跌超 3%，丙烯、甲醇、塑料、 PVC 跌超 2%。沪深 300 股指期货（IF）主力合约涨 0.09%，上证 50 股指期货（IH） 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任 ...

2026年2月27日，早盘开盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。氧化铝跌超3%，碳酸锂、钯、沪银、聚氯乙 烯（PVC）、燃油跌超2%，塑料、PTA、甲醇跌近2%；涨幅方面，沪锡涨超2%，SC原油、白糖、豆一 涨近1%。 | 序号 | 合约名称 | 最新 | 现手 | 来机 | 空母们 | 演唱歌 | 来源 | 委员 | 成交量 | 湘路 | 持命量 | 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 护锡2604 M | 433000 | 7 | 432980 | 433000 | 3.54% | 1 | 4 | 195884 14820 | | 46994 | 8816 | | 2 | 油菜籽2609 M | 5795 | 1 | 5760 | 5819 | 1.44% | T | 1 | 9 | 82 | 23 | -5 | | 3 | 紅枣2605 M | 8952 | 6 | 8950 | 8955 | 0.73% | 110 | 205 | 6411 | 65 | 119 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 商品表现 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 26 日 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 2 月 26 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。沪锡、碳酸锂涨超 ...

两烯期货主力合约日内高开上行收涨，盘中下探5日均线获支撑。虽节中短停装置已恢复重启,但考虑到市场供 应面压力可控,下游工厂刚需跟进,且成本面影响较大,价格走势偏强。 塑料和聚丙烯期货主力合约日内上行收涨。油价假期期间上行对聚烯烃盘面形成明显提标，目前市场主要交易 成本端逻辑。从基本面而言,节后归来,下游工厂尚未完全复工,市场交投气氛偏淡,后续随着下游客户返 市，需求端将逐渐恢复。假期内库存累积至高位，供应端压力增加,市场观望情绪浓厚。 | | 国际大博 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年02月24日 | | 尿素 | 女女女 | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯苯 | なな女 | 苯乙烯 | ★☆★ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 聚丙烯 | なな女 | 塑料 | ☆☆☆ | | | PVC | なな女 | 烧碱 | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PX | ★☆☆ | PTA | ★☆★ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 乙二醇 | な女女 | 短纤 | ★ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The latest price data in January 2026 in China shows a mild recovery at a low level with structural differentiation, while the non - farm data in the US in January greatly exceeded expectations, leading to an adjustment of the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Domestic price repair depends on the optimization of "new supply" and the unblocking of the transmission chain in the middle and lower reaches. The economic opportunities from the visit and domestic growth - stabilizing policies may lead to a valuation repair of pro - cyclical sectors [2]. - In the short term, for the RMB exchange rate, pre - holiday seasonal settlement demand may support the RMB's appreciation, but after the holiday, its endogenous appreciation power may decline, and its linkage with the US dollar index may increase [3]. - For the stock index, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm may be postponed, putting pressure on the stock index before the holiday. After the holiday, there may be opportunities for the IC contract [7]. - For the bond market, it is recommended to be cautious before the holiday, with a small amount of medium - term long positions in T2606 and to exit the March contract at high prices [8]. - For the container shipping European line, the market is in a small - scale shock, and funds are cautious. The spot price decline has slowed down, but there are still uncertainties in the market [11][12]. - For new energy products, the spot market for lithium carbonate is trading lightly, and it is recommended to sell volatility strategies before the holiday. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, due to high inventory, it is recommended to hold a light position or be empty before the holiday [15][17]. - For non - ferrous metals, aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy may be in a shock adjustment. Copper may be weak in its rebound, zinc may be in a shock, nickel - stainless steel may be affected by quota disturbances, tin may be adjusted in a wide - range shock, and lead may fluctuate weakly [20][26][28]. - For oilseeds and fats, for oilseeds, there are few unilateral opportunities, and it is recommended to pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities. For fats, the domestic market has limited driving forces and is expected to be in a shock before the holiday [31][33]. - For energy and oil and gas, for fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, due to geopolitical uncertainties, it is recommended to control positions before the holiday. For asphalt, its price may follow the cost - end crude oil, and there may be a decline after the holiday [35][37][39]. - For precious metals, for platinum and palladium, the long - term bull market foundation still exists, and it is recommended to buy in steps at low prices and control positions. For gold and silver, the long - term upward trend remains, and it is recommended to reduce or empty positions before the holiday [43][45]. - For chemical products, for pulp and offset paper, it is recommended to conduct range trading. For pure benzene - styrene, pay attention to cost - end fluctuations. For LPG, pay attention to geopolitical uncertainties. For PTA - PX, it is advisable to buy at low prices. For MEG - bottle chips, it is expected to fluctuate in a wide range. For methanol, it is recommended to be empty before the holiday. For plastics and PP, the short - term driving force is limited, and it is expected to be in a shock before the holiday. For rubber, it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday, and it is expected to be in a range - bound shock. For urea, it is recommended to be empty before the holiday. For glass and soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday. For propylene, pay attention to cost and risk [51][54][57][62][65][67][69][80][82][83][86]. - For black products, for rebar and hot - rolled coils, the price may be in a weak shock. For iron ore, it is advisable to wait and see cautiously before the holiday. For coking coal and coke, pay attention to the resumption rhythm after the holiday. For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, they are in a bottom - shock state [88][91][94][95]. - For agricultural and soft commodities, for live pigs, it is recommended to go long on the 05 contract. For cotton, it is expected to be in a shock in the short term. For sugar, the upward space is limited. For eggs, the main contract is expected to decline in a shock. For rubber, it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday and is expected to be in a range - bound shock. For apples, the short - term demand weakens, but the decline space is limited. For red dates, the short - term price may be in a low - level shock, and the long - term price is under pressure. For logs, it is recommended to wait and see [99][100][103][104][111][113][114][116]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: China's CPI and PPI data in January 2026 showed a mild recovery at a low level. The US non - farm data in January was strong, affecting the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Indonesia plans to cut the output of the world's largest nickel mine by 70%, and the US Congressional Budget Office expects the 2026 deficit to be $1.9 trillion [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US non - farm report in January was strong, delaying the market's expectations for the Fed's first interest rate cut. The RMB exchange rate was under the central bank's regulation and maintained a mild appreciation. Pre - holiday seasonal settlement demand may support the RMB's appreciation, but after the holiday, its endogenous appreciation power may decline [3]. - **Stock Index**: The Fed's interest rate cut rhythm may be postponed, putting pressure on the stock index before the holiday. After the holiday, there may be opportunities for the IC contract [7]. - **Treasury Bond**: It is recommended to be cautious before the holiday, with a small amount of medium - term long positions in T2606 and to exit the March contract at high prices [8]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The market is in a small - scale shock, and funds are cautious. The spot price decline has slowed down, but there are still uncertainties in the market [11][12]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot market is trading lightly. The downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly. It is recommended to sell volatility strategies before the holiday [15]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The market is in a wide - range shock. Due to high inventory, it is recommended to hold a light position or be empty before the holiday [16][17]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The non - farm data in the US was better than expected, reducing the probability of interest rate cuts. The fundamentals of aluminum have not changed much, and it may be in a shock adjustment. Alumina is expected to be weak in the long - term, and cast aluminum alloy may follow aluminum [20]. - **Copper**: The probability of a March interest rate cut has decreased, and the copper price's rebound is weak. It is recommended to hold a light position or wait and see before the holiday [20][23]. - **Zinc**: It follows the sector's adjustment, and the non - farm data suppresses the price. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock [26]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It is affected by quota disturbances. The market is in a supply - demand double - weak situation, and it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of capital withdrawal before the holiday [27][28]. - **Tin**: Its price is mainly driven by the macro situation and is expected to be in a wide - range shock adjustment [29][30]. - **Lead**: It follows the sector's fluctuation and is expected to be in a weak shock [30]. Oilseeds and Fats - **Oilseeds**: The external market of US soybeans is strong in the short - term, and the domestic soybean meal may rebound in the short - term but may be restricted by new supplies in the long - term. There are few unilateral opportunities, and it is recommended to pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities [31]. - **Fats**: The domestic market has limited driving forces. The palm oil market needs to observe the de - stocking process, the soybean oil has support from policies, and the rapeseed oil supply is loose. It is expected to be in a shock before the holiday [32][33]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: It opened high and went high. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is being repaired, and the demand is weak in some areas. The logic is mainly related to geopolitics, and it is recommended to control positions before the holiday [35]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cost has increased, and it opened high and went high. The supply is relatively abundant in the short - term, the demand is stable, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to control positions before the holiday [36][37]. - **Asphalt**: Its price increase is weak. The demand has reached the freezing point before the holiday, and it may follow the cost - end crude oil. There may be a decline after the holiday [38][39]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The long - term bull market foundation still exists. It is recommended to buy in steps at low prices and control positions. Pay attention to the impact of Fed officials' speeches and relevant events [43]. - **Gold and Silver**: The long - term upward trend remains, but the short - term operation is difficult. It is recommended to reduce or empty positions before the holiday [45]. Chemical Products - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp market is relatively neutral, and the offset paper futures may be in a range - bound shock. It is recommended to conduct range trading [51][52]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pay attention to cost - end fluctuations. The supply of pure benzene increases, and the demand is flat. The supply of styrene will increase in February, and the demand will decrease during the Spring Festival [54][55]. - **LPG**: There are still uncertainties in geopolitics. The supply is neutral - low, and the demand is at a low level. It is necessary to pay attention to risk management before the holiday [56][57]. - **PTA - PX**: It benefits from the good supply - demand structure of PX. The first quarter may see inventory accumulation, and the second quarter may be in short supply. It is advisable to buy at low prices [59][62]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The demand is seasonally weak, and the supply - demand balance has improved. It is expected to fluctuate in a wide range, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [63][65]. - **Methanol**: It follows geopolitics and non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to be empty before the holiday [66][67]. - **Plastics and PP**: The short - term driving force is limited. PE has a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and PP has limited supply pressure in the short - term. It is expected to be in a shock before the holiday [68][69]. - **Rubber**: It rose and then fell, with synthetic rubber leading the decline. The fundamentals have both support and pressure, and it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday and is expected to be in a range - bound shock [72][80]. - **Urea**: It is in a stage of over - supply due to new capacity release. The 05 contract may have a price increase expectation, but it is recommended to exit long positions and be empty before the holiday [81][82]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: For soda ash, the demand is expected to weaken, and it is in a weak shock. For glass, there may be concentrated cold repairs before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [83][84]. - **Propylene**: The fundamentals still have support, but the cost has uncertainties. Pay attention to cost, supply - demand, and risk [85][86]. Black Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The price may be in a weak shock. The supply is relatively strong compared to the demand, and the inventory is accumulating. The price may test the lower limit of the shock range [88][89]. - **Iron Ore**: The overall supply - demand is weak, and the iron water is expected to rise. It is advisable to wait and see cautiously before the holiday [90][91]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: There are many disturbances in the overseas market, and the domestic driving force is insufficient. Pay attention to the resumption rhythm after the holiday [92][94]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: They are in a bottom - shock state. The cost provides support, but the downstream inventory accumulation and high inventory of ferromanganese put pressure on the price [95]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The futures price has rebounded, and it is recommended to go long on the 05 contract [98][99]. - **Cotton**: It is expected to be in a shock in the short term. The supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the external - internal cotton price difference restricts the upward space [99][100]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price is weak, and the domestic sugar's upward space is limited [101][103]. - **Eggs**: The main contract is expected to decline in a shock. The pre - holiday demand has weakened, and the supply is sufficient [104]. - **Rubber**: It rose and then fell, with synthetic rubber leading the decline. The fundamentals have both support and pressure, and it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday and is expected to be in a range - bound shock [104][111]. - **Apples**: The pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the short - term demand weakens, but the decline space is limited [112][113]. - **Red Dates**: The short - term price may be in a low - level shock, and the long - term price is under pressure due to sufficient supply [114]. - **Logs**: The liquidity is insufficient, and the industry is optimistic about the post - holiday market. It is recommended to wait and see [115][116].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On February 11, 2026, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Carbonate lithium led the gains, while container shipping European routes led the losses. The capital flow varied among different contracts [5][6]. - Different futures products are affected by various factors such as supply - demand, macro - environment, and geopolitical situations, and their prices are expected to move within a certain range in the short term [8][10][11]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on February 11, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. Carbonate lithium rose over 9%, and沪镍 rose over 4%. Container shipping European routes fell over 1%, and coke, glass, and palm oil fell nearly 1%. Among stock index futures, IF fell 0.13%, IH rose 0.08%, IC rose 0.43%, and IM rose 0.01%. Among bond futures, TS remained flat, TF rose 0.05%, T rose 0.06%, and TL rose 0.05%. In terms of capital flow, IM 2603,沪金 2604, and carbonate lithium 2605 had capital inflows, while ten - year bond 2603, 30 - year bond 2603, and CSI 300 2603 had capital outflows [5][6]. 3.2. Market Analysis of Specific Futures - **沪铜**: It opened low and closed high, with strong intraday fluctuations. In January, production was 1.57 million tons more than expected, and in February, it is expected to return to normal. The expected production in February decreased by 3.58 million tons month - on - month, a 3.04% decline, but increased by 8.06% year - on - year. The demand decreased marginally during the holiday. The copper price is greatly affected by the macro - environment, and the spot trading was light before the holiday [8]. - **Carbonate lithium**: It opened high and closed high, rising over 9%. The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium increased. The supply in February will decrease. The export of Chilean carbonate lithium in January increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The downstream demand is expected to strengthen, and the inventory is moving downstream. The retail sales of passenger cars increased year - on - year and month - on - month [10]. - **Crude oil**: OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The demand is in the off - season, but the US crude oil inventory decreased more than expected. The global crude oil floating storage is high, and the supply is in surplus. The price of Arabian light crude oil to Asia was lowered. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The geopolitical situation in Iran is uncertain, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range [11][12]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate decreased slightly week - on - week, and the expected production in February decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The downstream industry's production rate mostly declined, and the national shipment volume decreased. The refinery inventory rate decreased slightly. The supply of Venezuelan heavy crude oil is restricted, and the production and cost of domestic asphalt are affected. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and reverse arbitrage is recommended [13][15]. - **PP**: The downstream production rate of PP decreased week - on - week, and the enterprise production rate increased. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years. The cost is affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The supply - demand pattern improvement is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16]. - **Plastic**: The plastic production rate increased, and the downstream production rate decreased. New production capacity was put into operation in January. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level. The cost is affected by the Middle East situation. The supply - demand pattern improvement is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17][18]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The PVC production rate increased slightly, and the downstream production rate decreased. The export order decreased after the price increase, and the social inventory increased. The real estate market is still in adjustment. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Coking coal**: It opened low and closed high, with a late - session decline. The supply of coking coal shrank significantly before the Spring Festival, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal will be restricted during the holiday. The downstream inventory is still increasing, but the replenishment is approaching the end. It is expected to be weak and fluctuate before the holiday [21]. - **Urea**: It opened low and closed high, rising in a volatile manner. Most factories have completed order collection, and the spot price will be stable during the holiday. The daily production has reached 215,000 tons. The futures market sentiment is strong, and the inventory decreased significantly this week but is expected to increase slightly next week. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range before the holiday [22].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 10 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 2 月 10 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。沪锡、烧碱涨超 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - As of the close on February 9, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with some metals rising significantly and some falling. The prices of various futures varieties are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and seasonal patterns [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - Futures Market Overview - As of the close on February 9, platinum rose nearly 11%, silver futures rose over 8%, palladium rose over 7%, tin futures rose over 6%, lithium carbonate and gold futures rose over 3%, caustic soda rose over 2%, and international copper and copper futures rose nearly 2%. In terms of declines, styrene (EB) fell over 2%, and log, ferrosilicon, low - sulfur fuel oil (LU), manganese silicon, coke, asphalt, and apple fell over 1%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also showed varying degrees of increase. In terms of capital flow, silver 2604, lithium carbonate 2605, and rebar 2605 had capital inflows, while CSI 2603, CSI 1000 2603, and ten - year treasury bonds 2603 had capital outflows [6][7] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper Futures - On February 9, copper futures opened high and moved higher. The output in January was 1.57 million tons more than expected, and it is expected to return to normal in February. The expected output in February will decrease by 3.58 million tons month - on - month, a decline of 3.04%. The demand showed an increase in December 2025, but downstream procurement decreased during the holiday. The market is affected by factors such as changes in the Fed's expectations, the proposed improvement of the copper resource reserve system, and the traditional consumption off - season. In the short - term, it will be mainly in a narrow - range shock, and the long - term outlook for copper prices is optimistic [9][10] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and moved high, with an intraday decline of nearly 3%. The average price increased slightly. The supply in February will decrease due to maintenance. The export from Chile in January increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The downstream demand decreased during the holiday in February, but is expected to increase in March. The inventory is gradually shifting to the downstream. The price has stopped falling and stabilized, but it is difficult to rise sharply in the short - term, and the market is mainly in a consolidation phase [11] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The US crude oil inventory decreased more than expected due to winter storms, but the global floating storage is high, and the supply is still in an oversupply situation. Saudi Aramco lowered the price of Arabian light crude oil for Asia. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The US - Iran nuclear negotiations have ended "temporarily", and the Iranian geopolitical risk is uncertain. The US - India trade and the Russia - Ukraine situation also affect the oil market. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate within a range in the near future [12][13] 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt start - up rate decreased last week, and the expected output in February will decrease both month - on - month and year - on - year. The downstream start - up rate decreased, and the national shipment volume decreased. The refinery inventory rate decreased slightly. The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is restricted, but the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining it has increased. Some refineries have resumed production, and the start - up rate has increased slightly. It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and it is recommended to use reverse arbitrage [14][16] 3.2.5 PP - As of the week of February 6, the downstream start - up rate of PP decreased, and the enterprise start - up rate also decreased. The proportion of standard - grade drawing production increased. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Affected by factors such as the uncertainty of the US - Iran situation, the supply - demand pattern of PP has limited improvement, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - On February 9, the plastic start - up rate remained stable at a relatively high level. The downstream start - up rate decreased, and the order volume decreased. New production capacity was put into operation in January. The supply - demand pattern has limited improvement, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [18][19] 3.2.7 PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest region is stable. The PVC start - up rate increased slightly, while the downstream start - up rate decreased. The export order volume decreased after the price increase. The social inventory increased, and the inventory pressure is still large. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. The PVC is expected to fluctuate within a range due to factors such as policy and maintenance expectations after the Spring Festival [20] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and moved high, showing a weak trend. The supply of coking coal has shrunk significantly before the Spring Festival, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal will also be restricted during the Spring Festival. The downstream winter storage is coming to an end, and the inventory is shifting to the downstream. The downstream steel trading volume is poor. The coking coal is expected to be in a weak consolidation state [21][22] 3.2.9 Urea - Urea opened high and moved high, showing a strong trend. The order - receiving situation before the Spring Festival is acceptable, and the price is stable. The gas - based devices have basically resumed production, and the production will be normal during the Spring Festival. The agricultural demand is good, and the industrial demand is weakening. The factory inventory is slightly digested. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and it is expected that the spot price is unlikely to drop before the festival, and the futures will fluctuate in a narrow range [23]

Group 1: Overall Market Analysis - The global macro - market last week was affected by multiple variables. The reconstruction of global liquidity expectations, policy and event disturbances in core economies, and the intensification of monetary policy differentiation were the core logics. Four major variables, including the Japanese election, weak US employment, China's pro - growth policies, and Australia's interest rate hike, dominated the market game, leading to high volatility in multiple sectors [2] - Short - term market trends will be verified by a series of events such as the Japanese election results, US key economic data, and China's inflation and consumption performance. The long - term trend is related to the US AI strategy, China's industrial and investment development, global key raw material strategic reserve logic, and the background of persistent differential inflation and monetary policies [2] Group 2: Financial Futures Macro - In the Japanese House of Representatives election on February 8, the ruling coalition composed of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party won a majority of seats. The Bank of Canada Governor said that if Canada loses preferential trade access to the US through the USMCA, its economy may fall into recession, but this is not the central bank's baseline scenario. The Japanese Finance Minister said it's not easy to use foreign exchange reserves for tax cuts and spending, and the Japanese Prime Minister will consider reducing the consumption tax [1] RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB appreciated against the US dollar in the previous trading day. The RMB's short - term movement against the US dollar is affected by seasonal settlement demand and the US dollar index. Exporters are advised to lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and importers can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at around 6.93 [3][4] Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated and adjusted last trading day. Short - term (before the Spring Festival), it is expected to remain volatile, and large - cap stock indices may be relatively dominant. Attention should be paid to the release of US non - farm payroll data and domestic CPI data [5] Treasury Bonds - Last week, bond futures rose overall. Whether the bond market can continue to rise this week depends on whether trading sentiment can be maintained. It is recommended to shift mid - line long positions during intraday adjustments and take profits on the March contract at high prices [6] Group 3: Commodities New Energy Lithium Carbonate - Last week, lithium carbonate futures prices fell sharply. Before the Spring Festival, downstream replenishment is over, and it is recommended to hold a light or empty position during the holiday. High volatility in the lithium carbonate futures market presents an opportunity to sell volatility [9] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of weak supply and demand. In February, production schedules will decline, and inventory reduction is the main task. Industrial silicon prices may continue to decline [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with a support level of 23000 - 23500. It is recommended to build long positions or sell options at the support level. Alumina is expected to be weak in the long - term, but there are short - term disturbances. Cast aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up to aluminum, and attention can be paid to its price difference with aluminum [15][16] Copper - Copper prices had high volatility last week. Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to focus on short - term range operations and be cautious about chasing up or selling down [19] Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. Before the Spring Festival, supply and demand are both weak. It is recommended to pay attention to this week's employment data, as weak data may support prices [20] Nickel - Stainless Steel - Nickel - stainless steel had a deep correction this week, mainly affected by the overall market and macro - level sentiment. The supply and demand are both weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the quota release rhythm and Indonesian downstream layout [20][21] Tin - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to this week's US employment and CPI data. Weak data may support non - ferrous metal prices [23] Lead - Lead prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with support at the bottom but lack of upward drive before the Spring Festival [23] Oils and Fats, and Feeds Oilseeds - The external market of soybeans is strong, while the domestic market is weak. It is recommended to lightly try long positions, but the upside is limited [24][25] Oils and Fats - Before the Spring Festival, funds flowed out of the oils and fats market, which is expected to be weakly volatile. It is not recommended to short, and selling put options can be considered [26] Energy and Oil and Gas Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is operating weakly. Although the supply shortage has been alleviated, the demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to geopolitical uncertainties [28] Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a low cracking spread. The supply is abundant, the demand is stable, and the inventory decline has a slight positive impact on the cracking spread [29][30] Asphalt - Asphalt's upward trend is weak. Before the Spring Festival, demand drops to zero. The future trend will follow the cost - end crude oil, and attention should be paid to geopolitical factors and inventory pressure after the Spring Festival [30][31] Precious Metals Platinum & Palladium - Platinum and palladium prices fluctuated sharply. In the long - term, the bull market foundation remains. High volatility requires attention to position control [33][35] Gold & Silver - Gold and silver prices fluctuated sharply last week. In the short - term, operation is difficult, but the long - term upward trend remains. It is recommended to buy on dips in installments and control positions. Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a light or empty position [36][39] Chemicals Pulp - Offset Paper - Pulp futures prices are expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to partially close short positions, conduct short - term range trading, or lightly try short - term long - buying strategies. Offset paper futures can return to range trading [41][42] LPG - LPG prices are affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is neutral, and the demand from PDH is low. Attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [43][44] PTA - PX - PX - PTA's valuation is returning to the fundamentals. PX is in short supply in the second quarter. It is recommended to buy on dips. PTA's high processing fees are difficult to maintain, and it is recommended to shrink the processing fees on the disk [45][48] MEG - Bottle Chips - Ethylene glycol's demand weakens seasonally. The supply - demand balance improves in the first half of the year. It is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [49][50] Methanol - It is recommended to hold an empty position during the Spring Festival. Methanol prices follow geopolitical and non - ferrous metal trends, and the trading is difficult [51][53] Plastic PP - Polyolefin prices are affected by macro - sentiment and cost. PE shows a trend of decreasing supply and increasing demand, and PP shows a pattern of decreasing supply and demand. Short - term attention should be paid to macro - atmosphere changes and the Iran - US conflict [54][55] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene's supply increases and demand is flat. Styrene's supply will increase in February, and demand will decline during the Spring Festival. Short - term geopolitical factors and exports support prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [56][57] Urea - Urea is in a stage of over - supply. The 05 contract has an expected price increase, but the short - term price may correct. It is recommended to close long positions and hold an empty position during the Spring Festival [58][59] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash is oscillating weakly, and the supply is expected to remain high in the long - term. Glass has a weak supply - demand pattern and is at risk of high intermediate inventory [60][63] Propylene - Propylene prices are affected by cost, supply and demand, and market sentiment. The short - term fundamentals provide some support, but attention should be paid to risks [63][64] Black Metals Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil - Rebar's inventory is accumulating, and hot - rolled coil's inventory is changing from decreasing to increasing. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to whether they break through the lower limit of the oscillation range [65][67] Iron Ore - The supply and demand of iron ore are both weak. The port inventory is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously before the Spring Festival [68] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal supply is seasonally shrinking, and coke's supply and demand are both recovering. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday resumption rhythm of mines and steel mills [69][70] Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are in an oscillating pattern between cost support and downstream inventory pressure. Ferrosilicon's fundamentals are slightly better [71] Agricultural and Soft Commodities Live Pigs - The live pig market is operating weakly. It is recommended to short the 03 contract and long the 05 contract in terms of the spread strategy [73][74] Cotton - Cotton prices are affected by macro - sentiment. The domestic cotton price is restricted by the internal - external price difference. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to downstream imports and new orders [75][76] Sugar - The domestic sugar demand is average, and the international raw sugar price is weak, dragging down the domestic sugar price. The upside space is limited [77][78] Eggs - The pre - holiday stocking demand for eggs has ended. It is recommended to sell the JD2603 - C - 3100 call option [79][80] Apples - Apple's pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end. The consumption peak logic is almost realized. The price is supported by delivery contradictions and is likely to rise rather than fall [81][82] Red Dates - Red dates' pre - holiday purchase and sales are slowing down. In the short - term, the price may remain low - oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure [83]