Workflow
聚烯烃需求旺季
icon
Search documents
PE与PP套利机会分析
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-07-30 08:12
Group 1: Market Dynamics - The relationship between PE (Polyethylene) and PP (Polypropylene) is strong, with concerns over rising propane prices due to tariffs impacting PP costs, leading to a narrowing price gap that even turned negative at one point [1] - Since May, as trade tensions eased, the price gap between PE and PP has been gradually returning to fundamentals, suggesting a potential resurgence in PE's bullish positioning [1] Group 2: Supply Side - As of July, the traditional maintenance season for polyolefins is coming to an end, with both PP and PE operating rates rebounding to around 85% [2] - There are more maintenance plans for PE than for PP before the National Day holiday, with 12 PE production lines (over 3 million tons capacity) scheduled for maintenance compared to 7 PP lines (230,000 tons capacity) [2] Group 3: Demand Side - The second half of the year is traditionally a peak demand season for polyolefins, with PE's peak demand starting in late July and expected to last until November, primarily driven by agricultural needs [6][3] - In contrast, PP's peak demand is more aligned with consumer spending during the "Golden September and Silver October" period and year-end holidays, making it more susceptible to macroeconomic conditions [6] Group 4: Import and Export Trends - Domestic PP capacity has expanded significantly, leading to reduced imports and a situation where exports exceed imports, resulting in a declining reliance on PP imports [7] - Conversely, PE still faces high import dependency due to a shortage of domestic high-end supply, although PE imports have decreased significantly this year, dropping to below 1 million tons in June, the lowest in seven years [7] Group 5: Summary - Trade tensions have caused the PE and PP price gap to hit a three-year low, but as these tensions diminish, expectations for PE in terms of supply, demand, and import/export dynamics are stronger than for PP, indicating a potential widening of the price gap in the future [8]