| CTERRE | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 日度黄峪参考 发布日期:2025/ | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | 当前市场流动性仍然充裕,A股目成交额突破至2万亿以上,沪指 | | | 股指 | | 突破"924"前高，内外利好因素下市场情绪尚好, 股指或继续偏 强运行。 | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | 宏观金融 | 国债 | 震荡 | 空间。 201 | | | 真金 | 看多 | 美联储主席表态偏鸽,提振9月降息预期,金价短期料偏强运行。 | | | 白银 | 看多 | 美联储主席表态偏鸽,提振9月降息预期,支撑贵金属,银价短期 或偏强运行。 | | | 국미 | 看多 | 美联储主席表态偏鸽,提振美联储降息预期,短期铜价偏强运行 | | | GD | | 美联储降息预期提升,但消费淡季下,国内铝下游需求承压,铝 价震荡运行。 | | | | | 氧化铝产量及库存双增,基本面偏弱施压价格,但几内亚正值雨 | | | 国化品 | | 季,铝土 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-08-27 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7402元/吨（-21），PP主力合约收盘价为7046元/吨（-28），LL华北现货为7300 元/吨（+30），LL华东现货为7320元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7000元/吨（+20），LL华北基差为-102元/吨（+51）， LL华东基差为-82元/吨（+21）， PP华东基差为-46元/吨（+48）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为78.7%（-5.5%），PP开工率为78.2%（+0.3%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为254.2元/吨（-78.3），PP油制生产利润为-325.8元/吨（-78.3），PDH制PP生产利 润为25.7元/吨（-62.5）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-39.0元/吨（+5.2），PP进口利润为-551.6元/吨（+5.3），PP出口利润为35.9美元/吨（-0.6）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为14.5%（+0.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.9%（+0.8%），PP下游塑编开工 率为42.0%（+0.6%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.7%（-0.5%）。 市场分析 中海石 ...

供应压力明显缓解 下半年以来，PE检修季结束，开工率逐渐反弹，一度突破90%大关。不过，近期PE检修明显增多，尤其是计划外 检修集中，开工率明显下降，已经降至81%附近，较前期高点下降10%。后期PE仍有部分检修计划，预期开工率 反弹空间有限。此外，装置上半年集中投产后，PE进入产能扩张空档期，7—11月暂无新装置投产计划，供应端 压力暂时不大。 虽然目前PE淡季结束，但是旺季启动不明显，价格持续震荡。后期随着"金九银十"旺季启动，PE基本面有望改 善，并且"反内卷"可能提供强有力支撑，价格有望逐渐扭转当前的弱势局面。 小结 PE传统的"金九银十"需求旺季即将到来，需求端有望明显改善。PE下游需求中，棚膜最值得期待。目前，棚膜需 求已经有改善迹象，预计后期明显走强，且有望维持至11月份。此外，下半年节假日较多，PE包装膜旺季也有望 启动。 "反内卷"提供支撑 下半年以来，"反内卷"成为商品市场的最大利多，从政策端对商品形成托底，部分品种（如焦煤、多晶硅等）出 现接近翻番的上涨行情。前期"反内卷"集中在新能源、黑色等行业，近期化工"反内卷"提上议程，部分化工上市 公司股票一度涨停，化工品期货也逐渐止跌反弹。目前 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 8 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心下挫，其中 WTI 10 月合约收盘下跌 1.55 美元至 | | | | 63.25 美元/桶，跌幅 2.39%。布伦特 10 月合约收盘下跌 1.58 美元 | | | | 至 67.22 美元/桶，跌幅 2.3%。SC2510 以 486.8 元/桶收盘，下跌 | | | | 10.9 元/桶，跌幅 2.19%。由于美国计划自周三起对印度商品加征 | | | | 的关税提高一倍至 50%，预计印度国有和私营炼油厂将减少近期 | | | | 对于俄罗斯石油的采购。当地时间 25 日，美国国土安全部发布的 | | | | 50%关税的计 一份草案通知，概述了美国政府将对印度产品征收 | | | | 划。通知称，加征的关税将适用于"自 2025 年 8 月 27 日美国东 | | | 原油 | 部夏令时间 0 时起，报关提货或从仓库提货的印度商品"。10 月， | 震荡 | | | 印度从俄罗斯进口的石油数量将较第一季度的平均 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-08-26 成本支撑走强，聚烯烃小幅走高 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为332.5元/吨（+17.9），PP油制生产利润为-247.5元/吨（+17.9），PDH制PP生产利 润为88.2元/吨（+12.0）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-44.2元/吨（+23.4），PP进口利润为-556.9元/吨（+3.4），PP出口利润为36.6美元/吨（-0.4）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为14.5%（+0.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.9%（+0.8%），PP下游塑编开工 率为42.0%（+0.6%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.7%（-0.5%）。 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7423元/吨（+43），PP主力合约收盘价为7074元/吨（+36），LL华北现货为7270 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为7320元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6980元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-153元/吨（-43），LL 华东基差为-103元/吨（-43）， PP华东基差为-94元/吨（-36）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为78.7%（-5.5%），PP开 ...

A c t i o n | Asia Chemicals Industry Restructuring Taking Shape – Korea vs. China CITI'S TAKE 20 Aug 2025 17:04:41 ET │ 22 pages Reuters reported (20 Aug, link) that 10 Korean chem companies agreed to reduce naphtha cracking (NCC) capacity by ~2.7-3.7mt, representing ~21- 29% of 12.8mt total. The government expects companies to submit a plan to implement the cuts by end-2025. While the exact closures have yet to be determined, we expect this could raise industry utilisation to ~95-100% (current: ~75%; Figu ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The second - phase 900,000 - ton/year PP new device of Daxie Petrochemical, with a postponed initial plan, is now scheduled to be put into production around August 23 - 24. In the long - term, there is significant pressure from new PP capacity. Downstream factory start - up rates are rising slowly, inventory transfer is sluggish, and upstream inventory is accumulating. Cost - side support is weak, and the demand side is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures include the trend of the plastic futures main contract, LL East China - main contract basis, the trend of the polypropylene futures main contract, and PP East China - main contract basis [8][11] 2. Production Profit and Start - up Rate - Figures cover LL production profit (crude oil - based), PE start - up rate, PP production profit (crude oil - based), PP production profit (PDH - based), PP start - up rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - based PP capacity utilization rate [20][21][29] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Figures involve HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire East China [28][35][36] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - Figures include LL import profit, LL US Gulf FOB - China CFR, LL Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, LL Europe FD - China CFR, PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), PP homopolymer injection molding US Gulf FOB - China CFR, PP homopolymer injection molding Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, PP homopolymer injection molding Northwest Europe FOB - China CFR, and LL export profit [42][47][54] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Start - up and Downstream Profit - Figures show PE downstream agricultural film start - up rate, PE downstream packaging film start - up rate, PE downstream stretch film - LL - 2300, PP downstream woven bag start - up rate, PP downstream BOPP start - up rate, PP downstream injection molding start - up rate, PP downstream woven bag production gross profit, and PP downstream BOPP production gross profit [63][64][74] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Figures display PE oil - based enterprise inventory, PE coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PE trader inventory, PE port inventory, PP oil - based enterprise inventory, PP coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PP trader inventory, and PP port inventory [73][79][84]

行业 聚烯烃日报 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 日期 2025 年 8 月 22 日 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-08-21 7月聚烯烃进出口量维持增长 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7347元/吨（+40），PP主力合约收盘价为7056元/吨（+40），LL华北现货为7180 元/吨（-40），LL华东现货为7300元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6980元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为-167元/吨（-80），LL 华东基差为-47元/吨（-40）， PP华东基差为-76元/吨（-60）。 策略 单边：中性； 跨期：09-01反套； 跨品种：无。 风险 宏观经济政策，原油价格波动，新增产能投产进度。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为84.2%（+0.1%），PP开工率为77.9%（+0.6%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为455.9元/吨（+59.4），PP油制生产利润为-84.1元/吨（+59.4），PDH制PP生产利 润为178.2元/吨（+6.6）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-115.4元/吨（-4.0），PP进口利润为-545.0元/吨（-47.2），PP出口利润为35.1美元/吨（+0.5）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为13.8%（+0.8%），PE ...

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - term: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Cross - variety: None [3] Core View - The polyolefin market has weak support due to slow demand follow - up. Macro factors offer no positive boost, causing the polyolefin futures to decline slightly. Supply pressure persists as previously shut - down plants restart. Although the postponed commissioning of the 90 - million - ton/year PP plant at Daxie Petrochemical eases short - term supply pressure, long - term new capacity pressure is significant. Cost support is weak as international oil prices are weak and propane prices are stable. The demand side is in the transition between peak and off - peak seasons, with slow improvement in terminal operations, providing limited market support [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 7307 yuan/ton (- 27), and the PP main contract closed at 7016 yuan/ton (- 32). LL North China spot was 7220 yuan/ton (- 30), LL East China spot was 7300 yuan/ton (+ 0), and PP East China spot was 7000 yuan/ton (+ 0). LL North China basis was - 87 yuan/ton (- 3), LL East China basis was - 7 yuan/ton (+ 27), and PP East China basis was - 16 yuan/ton (+ 32) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 84.2% (+ 0.1%), and PP operating rate was 77.9% (+ 0.6%). PE oil - based production profit was 396.5 yuan/ton (- 55.1), PP oil - based production profit was - 143.5 yuan/ton (- 55.1), and PDH - based PP production profit was 171.6 yuan/ton (- 18.4) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit was - 111.4 yuan/ton (+ 3.6), PP import profit was - 497.8 yuan/ton (- 36.4), and PP export profit was 34.6 US dollars/ton (+ 4.5) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 13.8% (+ 0.8%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 49.1% (- 0.2%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 41.4% (+ 0.3%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.1% (+ 0.3%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data in the given text, but it is mentioned that upstream and mid - stream inventories are rising and inventory pressure is high [2]