生产,但1.25富德重启。(3)伊朗局势有所缓和,但不能完全排 除风险。(4)内地受冷空气影响运费上涨,西北企业排库压力较 大降价出货。 (1) 原油震荡偏强。 (2) 价格回归合理区间。 (3) 节前补库结 PE 束,假期来临,需求平淡。 (1) 检修较少,开工负荷较高,供应压力偏大。(2) 下游改善 不及预期。（3）价格回归合理区间。（4）原油震荡偏暖。 (1) 2026年全球投产较少,西北地区差别电价有望实行. 倒逼 PVC产能出清,未来预期偏乐观。(2)基本面较差。(3)抢出口 PVC 阶段性放缓。 (1) 宏观情绪暂时消退,盘面重新交易基本面。 (2) 基本面偏 弱,绝对价格低位。（3）液氯走弱,现货价格小幅上涨。 (1) 2月CP价格上行,3月买货仍相对紧张。(2)中东地缘冲突 降温,短期风险溢价回落。(3)海外寒潮驱动逻辑逐步放缓。盘 面预期走弱,预计基差逐步走扩。(4)国内PDH开工率下滑、利 润预计季节性修复、LPG需求端短期偏空,压制盘面上行。(5) 港口持续去库 但内地民用气较为充足,出现丙烷-PG背离迹象 (1) 节前运价见顶回落。 (2) 航司试探性复航仍较为谨慎。 (3) 航司预计 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油：地缘因素反复计价 关注假期风险 （钟美燕，从业资格号：F3045334；交易咨询资格号：Z0002410） 1、周度油价围绕着美伊地缘事件的反复而不断震荡，周度整体价格重心下移，其中WTI 3月合约收盘 至63.55美元/桶，周度下跌3.41%。布伦特4月原油即期合约收盘至68.05美元/桶，周度下跌2.48%。 SC2603以468.8元/桶收盘。从价格来看，布油在70美元整数关口附近承压。 2、2月6日晚，在当天举行的美伊核谈判结束后，伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐离开阿曼首都马斯喀特。据 悉，阿拉格齐在当天谈判结束后接受采访时表示，伊朗代表团必须返回德黑兰就"关键问题"进行磋商， 并为未来的谈判做好准备。同时美伊已同意择日继续进行会谈。就在会谈后不久，美国国务院发表声明 说，美国对多个与伊朗石油贸易有关的实体、个人和油轮实施制裁，以打击伊朗"石油非法贸易 商"和"影子船队"。声明说，遭到制裁的包括15个实体、两名个人以及14艘油轮。声明还称，美政府正 在对伊朗实施"极限施压"，以大幅减少伊朗政府的"非法石油和石化产品出口"。因而当前来看，美伊 ...

发布日期：2026年2月5日 2月5日，新增广东石化全密度1线等检修装置，塑料开工率下跌至90.5%左右，目前开工率处于 中性偏高水平。截至1月30日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降1.77个百分点至37.76%，农膜订单和农膜 原料库存小幅减少，处于近年同期中性水平，包装膜订单同样小幅减少，整体PE下游开工率仍处于 近年农历同期偏低位水平。1月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成本端， 伊朗地缘局势反复，美国降低对印度加征的关税，印度炼厂或将增加中东和美洲地区的原油采购， 原油价格反弹。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）FDPE和30万吨/年的裕龙石化LDPE/EVA 在2026年1月投产。近期塑料开工率略有下降。地膜集中需求尚未开启，温度下降，终端施工放缓， 北方需求减少，北方棚膜生产基本停滞，农膜价格继续稳定，部分行业进入淡季，农膜和包装膜开 工率下降，预计后续下游开工率继续下降，临近春节放假，节前备货有限，终端工厂刚需采购为主。 塑料供需格局改善有限，1月底现货跟进有限，但化工反内卷仍有预期，上游石化库存偏低，目前基 差有所修复，预计塑料区间震荡。由于塑料近日有新增产能投产，开 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating to the precious metals and new energy sectors, and "Neutral" or "Wait-and-See" ratings to most other sectors [1] Core Viewpoints - In the context of low interest rates and an "asset shortage", domestic market funds remain abundant, and the stock index is expected to maintain a long-term upward trend despite short-term volatility [1] - The bond market is favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1] - Metal prices, including copper, aluminum, and nickel, are expected to stabilize and rebound after the release of macro risks, although they are subject to various supply and demand factors and policy uncertainties [1] - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policy. For example, palm oil is expected to be volatile and bullish, while cotton is in a situation of "support but no driver" [1] - Energy and chemical product prices are influenced by factors like crude oil prices, supply and demand fundamentals, and geopolitical situations. For instance, PTA and ethylene glycol prices have shown different trends due to various factors [1] Summary by Industry Macro Finance - Stock index: Expected to consolidate after a volume-reduced rebound, with a long-term upward trend intact due to abundant funds and economic recovery [1] - Bond futures: Favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but short-term interest rate risks are highlighted [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: After a significant correction, prices are expected to stabilize and rebound as macro risks are released, with industry fundamentals providing support [1] - Aluminum: Prices dropped due to rising macro risk aversion but are expected to recover as the supply narrative continues and risks are released [1] - Alumina: Supply exceeds demand, and prices are under pressure but are expected to fluctuate around the cost line [1] - Zinc: The cost center is stabilizing, and prices are expected to rebound after a correction due to increased risk aversion [1] - Nickel: Short-term prices are expected to stabilize and rebound, but long-term high global inventories may still exert pressure. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1] - Stainless steel: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate, with support from the raw material end and repeated macro sentiment. Short-term trading is recommended [1] - Tin: Prices rebounded strongly after a mine accident and significant deleveraging, but high short-term volatility requires risk management [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and silver: Market sentiment is recovering, but strong US PMI data may slow the short-term upward momentum [1] - Platinum and palladium: Short-term support exists due to Trump's plan to establish a key mineral reserve and the EU's consideration of sanctions on Russian platinum exports [1] - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing, and the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon declined in December [1] - Polysilicon: In the off-season for new energy vehicles, but storage demand is strong. Prices have risen significantly and may need to correct [1] - Lithium carbonate: Expectations are strong, but the spot market is weak, and the continuation of price increases lacks momentum [1] Black Metals - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Unilateral long positions are advised to exit, and cash-and-carry arbitrage positions can be considered due to factors such as high production and inventory [1] - Iron ore: There is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1] - Coke and coking coal: In the off-season, the focus is on capital sentiment, and opportunities to sell at high prices or establish cash-and-carry arbitrage positions are recommended [1] - Glass and soda ash: Weak current supply and demand are intertwined with strong expectations, and prices are under pressure in the medium term [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil: Expected to be volatile and bullish as the main consuming countries start purchasing and production areas may reduce production and inventory [1] - Cotton: Currently in a situation of "support but no driver", and future attention should be paid to factors such as policy, planting area, and seasonal demand [1] - Sugar: There is a consensus on short positions due to global oversupply and increased domestic production, but the cost provides support at lower prices [1] - Grains: Before the Spring Festival, the market is expected to correct as pre-holiday stocking ends and funds take profits [1] - Soybeans: Unilateral expectations are for a weakening trend due to factors such as expected rainfall in Argentina and sufficient Brazilian supply [1] - Pulp: It is advisable to wait and see due to supply disturbances and weakening demand after restocking [1] - Logs: The spot price is rising, and the futures price is expected to increase due to a decrease in arrivals and an increase in foreign quotes [1] - Hogs: The spot price is stabilizing, and demand is supported, but production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may ease. Prices are expected to correct in the short term [1] - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - Asphalt: Profits are high, and the demand for catch-up construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan may be falsified [1] - Shanghai rubber: The raw material cost provides support, but downstream demand weakens before the festival, and the futures-spot price difference has widened [1] - BR rubber: The cost of butadiene provides support, and there is an expectation of increased exports in the long term. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with an upward trend in the long term [1] - PTA: The PX market is strong, driving up the prices of chemical products. Domestic PTA production is increasing, and the negative feedback from polyester factory production cuts is limited [1] - Ethylene glycol: Overseas prices have rebounded, and the reduction in Middle East exports has boosted market confidence. Speculative demand has increased [1] - Styrene: The futures price has rebounded due to improved supply and demand fundamentals and reduced inventory pressure [1] - Methanol: Affected by the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease, but downstream negative feedback is significant, resulting in a mixed situation [1] - PE: The price has returned to a reasonable range, and demand is weak during the holiday after pre-holiday stocking [1] - PP: Supply pressure is high, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price has returned to a reasonable range [1] - PVC: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current fundamentals are poor, and there may be a rush to export [1] - LPG: The CP price is rising, and the demand side is short-term bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price [1] Shipping - Container shipping on the European route: Freight rates have peaked and declined before the festival, and airlines are expected to raise prices after the off-season in March [1]

（来源：兴园化工园区研究院） 2025年10月30日，华锦阿美精细化工及原料工程项目500万吨/年渣油加氢、20万吨/年丁二烯抽提装置同日实现机械竣工，目前32套生产装置已机械竣工 23套，建设总进度已超过88%。根据项目初步预期，计划在2026年二季度开始开车打通全流程，四季度实现多数装置集中投产。 该项目理想状态下会在2026年第三季初有产品流向市场，2026年底将会实现完全开车。这也是2026年预期开车的两套炼化一体化项目之一，另外一套装置 是古雷石化，也是计划在2026年下半年投产运行。 图1华锦阿美项目最新现场图 图片来源：华锦阿美官网 从环评报告公示信息来看，华锦阿美精细化工及原料工程项目是典型的炼化一体化项目，配套有1500万吨常减压装置，150万吨石脑油裂解装置，与炼油 装置的60万吨C2回收装置配套，可以实现165万吨乙烯产品的生产，下游配套30多套炼油及化工生产装置，终端产品有汽油、柴油、煤油、苯乙烯、乙二 醇、PX、双氧水、LPG、PE、PP、ABS等数十种产品的生产。 从原料结构来看，主要采用沙特重质和轻质原油，轻重原油比例为1.1:1，基本为全馏程原料油，产品结构中无明显轻重产品差异 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年2月4日 【行情分析】 2月4日，新增中化泉州HDPE等检修装置，塑料开工率下跌至91%左右，目前开工率处于中性偏高 水平。截至1月30日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降1.77个百分点至37.76%，农膜订单和农膜原料库存 小幅减少，处于近年同期中性水平，包装膜订单同样小幅减少，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年农历 同期偏低位水平。1月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成本端，伊朗地缘 局势反复，美国降低对印度加征的关税，印度炼厂或将增加中东和美洲地区的原油采购，原油价格 反弹。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）FDPE和30万吨/年的裕龙石化LDPE/EVA在2026年1 月投产。近期塑料开工率小幅上升。地膜集中需求尚未开启，温度下降，终端施工放缓，北方需求 减少，北方棚膜生产基本停滞，农膜价格继续稳定，部分行业进入淡季，农膜和包装膜开工率下降， 预计后续下游开工率继续下降，临近春节放假，节前备货有限，终端工厂刚需采购为主。塑料供需 格局改善有限，1月底现货跟进有限，但化工反内卷仍有预期，上游石化库存偏低，目前基差有所修 复 ...

| 可能送 | | | 日度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 发布日期:2026/0 | | 行业板块 | 品神 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | 11:45 | 短期内需关注海外流动性收紧所带来的恐慌情绪是否得到有效缓 预计股指在缩量反弹后,将以震荡整固为主。拉长来看, 4 | | 宏观金融 | | | 低利率和"资产荒"背景下,国内市场资金总体仍较为充裕,加 上经济正处于筑底过程中,股指中长期向上的趋势预计尚未终结 | | | 国债 | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,近期关注 | | | | | 日本央行利率决策。 近期市场风险偏好承压,铜价大幅回调,但铜产业面仍有支撑, | | | | | 随着宏观风险释放,铜价企稳回升。 宏观避险情绪升温导致铝价大幅下挫,但电解铝供应端叙事有望 | | | | | 延续,随着风险释放,铝价有望企稳回升。 | | | | | 国内氧化铝供强需弱,产业面偏弱、价格承压,但当前价格基本 处于成本线附近,预计价格震荡运行。10 | | | ਦੇਜ | | 锌基本面成本中枢趋稳,近期市场避险情 ...

【DT新材料】 获悉，2月2日， 道恩集团 在龙口市（道恩）新材料科技产业园举行签约仪式，正式并购韩国和承集团旗下的和承化学（越南）改性工 厂 。此举标志着道恩股份在俄罗斯、新加坡之后，其"市场国际化"版图新增越南坐标，深入切入东南亚市场。 此次并购的越南工厂位于越南同奈省仁泽县仁泽工业区，已建成投产5年，是当地重要的高分子新材料生产商。 该工厂主要生产PPS、PP、PE、ABS、 PA6/66等改性材料 ，产品广泛应用于电气电子、办公家具、汽车零部件等领域。 据悉，道恩近年来持续在海外考察合适标的，最终选择越南， 一方面，重要客户近年来在越南均有重要的制造基地，实现本地化就近供应，能够显著 降低跨境物流成本、缩短交付周期，提升供应链稳定性与响应速度，这是巩固战略合作的关键。 另一方面，越南市场本身充满活力，且当地还有一定 的优惠政策，这有利于道恩股份的产品辐射更广阔的东南亚市场，为公司长期国际化发展奠定坚实基础。 值得注意的是，此次收购并非简单的资产买卖，而是一套包含 "业务分立、股权转让、额外资产购买" 的复杂组合操作。 FINE 2026 × Carbontech 轻量化功能化与可持续材料展 2026. ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡运行 期货方面： 塑料2605合约增仓震荡运行，最低价6811元/吨，最高价6937元/吨，最终收盘于6865元/ 吨，在60日均线上方，跌幅1.15%。持仓量增加15259手至511685手。 现货方面： PE现货市场多数下跌，涨跌幅在-200至+0元/吨之间，LLDPE报6700-7170元/吨，LDPE报 8600-9180元/吨，HDPE报6810-8090元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 发布日期：2026年2月3日 【行情分析】 2月3日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在92%左右，目前开工率处于中性偏高水平。截至 1月30日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降1.77个百分点至37.76%，农膜订单和农膜原料库存小幅减少， 处于近年同期中性水平，包装膜订单同样小幅减少，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年农历同期偏低位 水平。1月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成本端，地缘局势降温，本次 寒潮转弱，原油价格大幅下跌。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）FDPE和30万吨/年的裕 ...

预计至2025年年底净资产为负，顾地科技（002694）日前公告称，公司股票交易可能被实施退市风险警示。2月2日开盘，顾地科技股价"一字"跌停，截至 收盘报3.33元/股。 原子公司跨界文旅"埋雷" 公开资料显示，顾地科技是我国难燃PVC电工管和线槽的发明者和制造者，也曾是推动我国塑胶管道"以塑代钢"的先行者。公司的PE、PP、PVC三大系 列管道产品产品广泛应用于建筑内给排水、市政给水、燃气、建筑采暖、市政排水排污等领域。 2016年，顾地科技跨界文旅，并于2017年继续在赛事文旅业务上加码。当年7月，公告拟通过全资子公司阿拉善盟梦想汽车文化旅游开发有限公司（简 称"梦汽文旅"）投资约10亿元，实施阿拉善沙漠梦想汽车航空乐园-汽车乐园建设项目。遗憾的是，高投入没能带来高回报，反让顾地科技深陷泥潭。 公告显示，因梦汽文旅相关人格混同案件，顾地科技仍有两笔大额计提。 顾地科技股价走势图 涉诉大额计提拖垮公司业绩 1月31日，顾地科技披露2025年度业绩预告称，预计公司2025年归母净利润为亏损3亿元至5.77亿元，扣非后净利润为亏损6320.85万元至1.23亿元。 据披露，顾地科技2025年归属于母公司所有者 ...