聚烯烃日报 | 2025-10-10 新装置投产，聚烯烃供应压力增加 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7077元/吨（-76），PP主力合约收盘价为6745元/吨（-107），LL华北现货为7000 元/吨（-120），LL华东现货为7140元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6750元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-77元/吨（-44），LL 华东基差为63元/吨（+76）， PP华东基差为5元/吨（+107）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.9%（+1.9%），PP开工率为77.7%（+1.1%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为247.7元/吨（+72.5），PP油制生产利润为-382.3元/吨（+72.5），PDH制PP生产利 润为-224.0元/吨（+40.0）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-41.5元/吨（-0.1），PP进口利润为-517.2元/吨（-0.1），PP出口利润为13.4美元/吨（+0.0）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为35.6%（+2.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为52.9%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工 率为44.3%（+0.4%），PP下游BOPP膜 ...

南华期货聚烯烃2025年四季度展望 —— 供需压力尚存，成本支撑渐显 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 第一章 观点概要 三季度，聚烯烃盘面总体震荡下行。期间虽曾受到"反内卷"情绪的影响间断性走高，但是由于自身基本面支撑 不足，在情绪降温后涨幅快速回吐。展望四季度，随着密集的投产暂告一段落，后续聚烯烃核心关注点将转 至如何消化存量产能： 1）当前聚烯烃利润压缩明显，成本支撑加强。尤其是在PP方面，9月PDH利润下滑叠加PP-丙烯价差收窄， 装置意外检修情况增多。若是后续利润维持偏低，高检修态势延续，将对形成底部支撑。因此，需特别关注 边际装置的开停工情况。 2）在三季度海外供应提升，而需求持续疲软的背景下，中国作为聚烯烃价格外地，或将被动承接全球过剩资 源，导致净进口增量，使得"减进口、增出口"道路或将受阻。因而需持续关注聚烯烃进口到港节奏以及出口订 单变化。 3）下半年聚烯烃需求总体表现偏弱：一方面是传统下游旺季表现不及预期，企业补库意愿低迷，另一方面是 快递、家电、汽车等主力终端行业增速普遍放缓，对原料 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for L and PP, the unilateral strategy is neutral [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints - **PE**: The cost - side support weakens due to falling oil prices. The supply is increasing as more maintenance devices are restarting. Although the downstream demand has a slight improvement before the double - festivals, the follow - up is insufficient, and the demand is still weak, which restricts the upward space of PE. After the festivals, social inventory may accumulate [2]. - **PP**: The cost support is weak. The supply is expected to increase as the number of maintenance devices decreases. The demand is marginally improving but still recovering slowly, and the demand support is limited. The weak demand restricts the upward space of PP, and the low profit also limits its downward space [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Key Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 7181 yuan/ton (+22), and that of the PP main contract is 6903 yuan/ton (+10). The LL North China spot price is 7120 yuan/ton (-20), and the LL East China spot price is 7140 yuan/ton (+0). The PP East China spot price is 6750 yuan/ton (+0). The LL North China basis is -61 yuan/ton (-32), the LL East China basis is -41 yuan/ton (-22), and the PP East China basis is -153 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 81.8% (+1.5%), and the PP operating rate is 75.5% (+0.6%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is -1.8 yuan/ton (-55.8), the PP oil - based production profit is -631.8 yuan/ton (-55.8), and the PDH - based PP production profit is -264.0 yuan/ton (-39.2) [1]. - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit is -56.7 yuan/ton (-1.9), the PP import profit is -532.6 yuan/ton (-1.9), and the PP export profit is 15.3 US dollars/ton (+0.2) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 32.9% (+6.1%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 52.4% (+0.6%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 43.9% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.4% (+0.0%) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The cost - side support weakens as OPEC+ increases oil production in November, driving the oil price down. The supply is increasing as more maintenance devices restart. The demand has a slight improvement before the double - festivals, but the follow - up is insufficient, and the demand is still weak, which restricts the upward space of PE [2]. - **PP**: The cost support is weak due to the falling international oil price. The supply is expected to increase as the number of maintenance devices decreases. The demand is marginally improving but still recovering slowly, and the demand support is limited [3]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: L and PP are neutral [4]. - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy [4].

59 61 63 65 67 69 71 6800 6900 7000 7100 7200 7300 7400 7500 聚烯烃 2025年第三季度复盘 求和项:PP主力合约价格 求和项:LLDPE主力合约价格 求和项:WTI现货 OPEC+增产预期压缩成本端，叠加PP新装置投产，聚烯烃弱 基差+高仓单压制下，行情走势偏弱 反内卷预期主导行情，聚烯 烃周期7月下旬迎来一波反 弹 聚烯烃 01合约投产 聚烯烃季报 | | | | | 2025年PE投产表 | | | | | | | | PP投产进度--国产 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 企 业 | | LLDPE HDPE | 全 密 度 | LDPE | LDPE/ EVA | PE合计 | 预计投产时间 | 投产时间 | 地 区 | 省 份 | 企 业 | 生产路径 | 产 能 | 预计投产时 间 | | | 万华化学 | | | | 2 5 | | 2 5 | 2025年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recently released "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" aimed at addressing challenges such as intensified competition in the organic raw materials market, insufficient supply of high-end fine chemicals, slowing domestic demand growth, and increasing external uncertainties. The plan targets an average annual growth of over 5% in the industry's added value from 2025 to 2026, focusing on innovation, efficiency, demand expansion, optimization of carriers, and promoting cooperation [3]. Group 1: Industry Challenges and Responses - The petrochemical industry faces intensified competition, insufficient supply of high-end chemicals, and a slowdown in domestic demand growth, prompting the need for a comprehensive growth plan [3]. - The plan includes ten key tasks focusing on innovation, efficiency, demand expansion, optimization of carriers, and cooperation to enhance the industry's competitiveness [3]. - The elimination of outdated production capacity is expected to optimize supply-side dynamics and improve overall competitiveness in the petrochemical sector [3]. Group 2: Refining Capacity and Market Dynamics - As of 2024, China's refining capacity reached 955 million tons per year, with a target to keep crude oil processing capacity under 1 billion tons by 2025 [4]. - The industry is undergoing a market reshuffle, with facilities below 2 million tons per year being phased out, and new integrated refining projects coming online, such as the 20 million tons per year project by Yulong Petrochemical [5]. - The capacity utilization rate in the chemical manufacturing sector has declined from 80% in Q2 2021 to 72% in the same period this year, indicating a significant oversupply in the market [5]. Group 3: Profitability and Strategic Focus - The petrochemical industry has experienced a decline in profitability, with major private refining companies reporting a nearly 40% drop in net profits in the first half of the year [6]. - The plan emphasizes "controlling increments" and suggests focusing on high-value-added sectors to enhance supply in high-end markets, particularly in integrated circuits, new energy, and medical equipment [6]. - Companies that have already positioned themselves in high-value sectors, such as renewable energy materials, are expected to benefit from the market dynamics, with firms like Dongfang Shenghong seeing profit growth due to their investments in solar-grade EVA products [7].

Group 1 - The petrochemical industry is facing challenges such as intensified competition in the basic organic raw materials market, insufficient supply of high-end fine chemicals, slowing domestic demand growth, and increasing external uncertainties. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments have released a growth stabilization plan for the petrochemical industry for 2025-2026, aiming for an average annual growth of over 5% in added value [1] - The plan emphasizes the need to strictly control new refining capacity and rationally determine the scale and pace of new ethylene and paraxylene capacity, while preventing overcapacity risks in the coal-to-methanol industry. It supports the transformation of old petrochemical facilities and the industrialization of new technologies [1][3] - The industry is undergoing a market reshuffle, with refining capacities below 2 million tons/year being phased out. Major projects such as the 20 million tons/year integrated refining and chemical project by Yulong Petrochemical and the 6 million tons/year expansion project by Daxie Petrochemical are coming online, further accelerating the market reshuffle [3] Group 2 - The chemical industry is experiencing severe homogenization issues, with a significant increase in production capacity leading to limited profit margins. The capacity utilization rate in the chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing sector has declined from 80% in Q2 2021 to 72% in the same period this year [5] - The petrochemical industry has seen a rapid development over the past decade, with new integrated refining and chemical facilities being continuously put into operation. However, this has led to "involution" competition, where production increases do not translate into profit growth. Major petrochemical products have seen capacity and output increases of over 50% in the past five years, resulting in declining profitability for companies [5] - The growth stabilization plan suggests focusing on high value-added areas to enhance high-end supply, targeting key industries such as integrated circuits, new energy, and medical equipment. Companies with early layouts in high value-added fields are expected to benefit [6]

聚烯烃周报 | 2025-09-28 需求跟进偏弱，压制聚烯烃上行空间 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7159元/吨（-10），PP主力合约收盘价为6893元/吨（-5），LL华北现货为7140 元/吨（+10），LL华东现货为7140元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6750元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-29元/吨（+10），LL 华东基差为-19元/吨（+10）， PP华东基差为-143元/吨（+5）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为81.8%（+1.5%），PP开工率为75.5%（+0.6%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为-1.8元/吨（-55.8），PP油制生产利润为-631.8元/吨（-55.8），PDH制PP生产利润 为-264.0元/吨（-39.2）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-56.7元/吨（-1.9），PP进口利润为-532.6元/吨（-1.9），PP出口利润为15.3美元/吨（+0.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为32.9%（+6.1%），PE下游包装膜开工率为52.4%（+0.6%），PP下游塑编开工 率为43.9%（+0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The demand for both PE and PP remains weak, which continues to limit their upward potential and is still constrained by supply - side pressure. The recovery of demand is slow, and the cost support is insufficient. For PE, the supply is increasing, and the demand realization rate is slow; for PP, the supply pressure is large, and the profit at a low level restricts its downward space [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main - contract closed at 7,169 yuan/ton (+27), PP main - contract at 6,898 yuan/ton (+21). LL North China spot was 7,130 yuan/ton (+50), LL East China spot 7,140 yuan/ton (+30), PP East China spot 6,750 yuan/ton (+20). LL North China basis was - 39 yuan/ton (+23), LL East China basis - 29 yuan/ton (+3), PP East China basis - 148 yuan/ton (-1) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 81.8% (+1.5%), PP开工率 was 75.5% (+0.6%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 48.7 yuan/ton (-128.7), PP oil - based production profit was - 571.3 yuan/ton (-128.7), PDH - based PP production profit was - 280.6 yuan/ton (-12.9) [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was - 64.1 yuan/ton (+84.8), PP import profit was - 529.7 yuan/ton (-0.8), PP export profit was 15.0 US dollars/ton (-19.9) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 32.9% (+6.1%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 52.4% (+0.6%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 was 43.9% (+0.3%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.4% (+0.0%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply increased as many previously - shut - down plants restarted. Demand improved slightly with pre - holiday stocking, but the demand realization rate was slow, and social inventory decreased slowly. Cost support from international oil prices was insufficient [3]. - **PP**: Supply pressure was large due to expected restart of plants, increased coal - enterprise production, and new capacity release. Demand improved marginally but slowly. Cost was supported by firm propane, and low profit limited the downward space [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Neutral for L and PP [4]. - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy provided [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for L and PP is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market continues its weak consolidation due to slow demand follow - up. For PE, supply exceeds expectations, demand improvement is slow, and cost support is insufficient, so its trend is suppressed by supply. For PP, supply pressure is large, demand recovery is slow, and low profit limits its downside [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main - contract closing price is 7105 yuan/ton (- 25), PP main - contract closing price is 6842 yuan/ton (- 31), LL North China spot price is 7070 yuan/ton (- 40), LL East China spot price is 7110 yuan/ton (- 60), PP East China spot price is 6730 yuan/ton (+ 0), LL North China basis is - 35 yuan/ton (- 15), LL East China basis is 5 yuan/ton (- 35), and PP East China basis is - 112 yuan/ton (+ 31) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 80.4% (+ 2.3%), PP operating rate is 74.9% (- 1.9%). PE oil - based production profit is 316.5 yuan/ton (+ 9.5), PP oil - based production profit is - 363.5 yuan/ton (+ 9.5), PDH - based PP production profit is - 267.8 yuan/ton (- 8.2) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Information not summarized from the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit is - 91.3 yuan/ton (+ 1.5), PP import profit is - 531.3 yuan/ton (+ 1.5), PP export profit is 35.2 US dollars/ton (- 0.2) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 26.8% (+ 2.6%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 51.8% (+ 0.5%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 43.6% (+ 0.5%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.4% (- 0.1%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Information not summarized from the given text Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral for L and PP - Inter - period: Reverse spread for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 - Inter - variety: None [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, individual product ratings are as follows: - **Bullish**: Gold, Silver, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Oil, Carbonate Lithium [1] - **Bearish**: Ethanol, Pig [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coke, Coking Coal, Cotton, Raw Sugar, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Log, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Shanghai Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, PE, PVC, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe Line [1] 2. Core Views - **Macro - Financial**: The long - term outlook for stock indices is bullish, but the probability of a unilateral up - trend before the National Day holiday is low. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - **Precious Metals**: A weaker US dollar boosts gold and silver prices, and they may perform strongly in the short term [1]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: While the Fed's interest rate cut has put pressure on copper and aluminum prices, factors such as overseas easing cycles, improved domestic downstream demand, and positive short - term sentiment are expected to stabilize copper prices. The decline in aluminum prices is limited due to the approaching consumption peak season. Alumina's fundamentals are weak, but its price is close to the cost line, so the downside is limited. Zinc prices are under pressure due to increasing social inventories. Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to supply and policy changes. Tin may present low - buying opportunities during the peak demand season [1]. - **Black Metals**: The valuation of rebar and hot - rolled coil has returned to neutral, with unclear industrial drivers and positive macro - drivers. Iron ore has upward potential in the far - month contracts. Coke and coking coal prices are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances. The supply of steel products is still excessive, and although there is marginal improvement in peak - season demand, prices are under pressure [1]. - **Agricultural Products**: Palm oil may be bought at the lower end of the oscillation range. Soybean oil is expected to reduce inventory in the fourth quarter and is bullish in the long - term. Rapeseed oil is recommended for buying and calendar spread trading. Domestic cotton prices may oscillate widely in the short term and face pressure in the long - term with the new cotton harvest. Raw sugar prices are rebounding but have limited upside due to oversupply. Soybean meal may oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices have a slightly upward - moving center of gravity. PTA basis has declined rapidly, and ethylene glycol is bearish. Short - fiber and styrene may oscillate. PE, PVC, and LPG prices are under pressure, and the container shipping to Europe line may stop falling and stabilize [1]. 3. Summary by Product Category Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Long - term bullish, but low probability of unilateral up - trend before the National Day holiday, recommend controlling positions [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but central bank warns of interest rate risks, suppressing the upside [1] Precious Metals - **Gold**: A weaker US dollar boosts prices, expected to be strong in the short term [1] - **Silver**: Price rebounds driven by market sentiment, expected to be strong in the short term [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Fed's interest rate cut puts pressure, but expected to stabilize due to overseas easing and domestic demand [1] - **Aluminum**: Interest rate cut causes pressure, but limited downside in the consumption peak season [1] - **Alumina**: Fundamentals are weak, but limited downside as price approaches cost line [1] - **Zinc**: Increasing social inventories put pressure on prices [1] - **Nickel**: May oscillate in the short term, focus on supply and macro changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: May oscillate in the short term, recommend short - term trading and light positions for the holiday [1] - **Tin**: May present low - buying opportunities during the peak demand season [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is bullish due to supply and policy expectations [1] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Valuation returns to neutral, industrial drivers are unclear, macro - drivers are positive [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Supply - demand imbalance, prices are under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term oscillation adjustment, consider buying at the lower end of the range [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Expected to reduce inventory in the fourth quarter, long - term bullish [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Recommended for buying and calendar spread trading due to supply shortage and peak season [1] - **Cotton**: Short - term wide - range oscillation, long - term pressure with new cotton harvest [1] - **Raw Sugar**: Prices are rebounding but have limited upside due to oversupply [1] - **Soybean Meal**: May oscillate in the short term [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Price center of gravity moves slightly upward [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term [1] - **Shanghai Rubber**: Affected by typhoon and inventory changes [1] - **BR Rubber**: Pay attention to capital flow due to supply and spread changes [1] - **PTA**: Basis declines rapidly due to production recovery and other factors [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bearish due to new production and hedging pressure [1] - **Short Fiber**: Factory production recovers, market delivery willingness weakens [1] - **Styrene**: Supply increases, may oscillate with limited upside and cost support [1] - **PE**: May oscillate weakly as the market returns to fundamentals [1] - **PVC**: Oscillates weakly due to supply pressure and high near - month warehouse receipts [1] - **LPG**: Upward momentum is restricted by production increase and high inventory [1] - **Container Shipping to Europe Line**: May stop falling and stabilize as prices approach cost [1]