Workflow
聚酯产业链累库压力
icon
Search documents
中信建投期货:2月4日能化早报
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-04 01:24
Group 1: Rubber Market - Domestic all-latex rubber price reached 16,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thai 20 mixed rubber price at 15,130 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton [4][27] - As of February 1, 2026, Qingdao's total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade reached 591,700 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons, or 1.23% from the previous period [5] - With the arrival of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the market is expected to shift from dynamic pricing based on supply and demand to static pricing based on inventory levels, leading to high volatility in RU&NR&Sicom prices [5] Group 2: PX Market - PX industry load in China increased by 0.3 percentage points to 89.2%, while Asia's industry load rose by 0.6 percentage points to 81.6%, indicating a stable supply [6][29] - The demand side is affected by numerous maintenance plans for downstream PTA facilities in the first quarter, which may impact PX demand [6] - Geopolitical tensions have led to significant oil price increases, but short-term fluctuations are not expected to greatly affect polyester prices unless extreme events occur [6][29] Group 3: PTA Market - PTA industry load remained stable at 76.6%, which is low compared to historical levels, with expectations of tightening supply due to maintenance plans [7][30] - The demand for PTA is weakening, with new orders declining and factory operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continuing to drop [7][30] - The PTA market is facing inventory accumulation pressure in the first quarter, with short-term cost support still present [7][30] Group 4: EG Market - The domestic ethylene glycol industry load increased by 1.2 percentage points to 74.3%, indicating high operational levels [9][32] - Despite potential import reductions due to maintenance in North America and the Middle East, domestic supply remains ample, leading to overall pressure in the market [9][32] - February is expected to bring significant inventory pressure, with current prices not sufficient to trigger large-scale production cuts [9][32] Group 5: PF Market - The load of direct-spun polyester short fibers decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 96.0%, with production cuts being implemented [11][34] - Demand remains weak, and the operating rate of polyester yarn has also declined, which is expected to further suppress demand for short fibers [11][34] - Short-term price pressures are anticipated due to weak terminal demand, although cost support remains [11][34] Group 6: PR Market - The supply side of the bottle-grade PET industry load decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 66.1%, indicating low operational levels [13][36] - Demand is weak due to the traditional off-season for beverage consumption, limiting production recovery in February [13][36] - The ongoing supply contraction is expected to support inventory reduction and processing fees, but price independence from raw materials is unlikely [13][36] Group 7: Soda Ash Market - Soda ash futures saw a slight decline, while spot prices remained stable, with recent production increases adding supply pressure [14][37] - Downstream demand has slightly decreased, and inventory levels have increased, indicating a mixed market sentiment [14][37] - Short-term price movements are expected to remain within a low range due to increased supply and weak demand [14][37] Group 8: Glass Market - Glass futures experienced a slight increase, with stable spot prices, while supply pressures have eased [40] - Recent inventory levels have decreased slightly, and procurement activity has improved, indicating a potential for price support [40] - The overall market remains cautious due to ongoing weak demand in the real estate sector [40]