证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 大炼化周报：长丝 下游清库回款情绪愈发浓厚，终端需求偏弱 [Table_ReportDate0] 2026 年 1 月 11 日 本期内容提要： [Table_Author] ➢ 国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪： [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 截至 1 月 9 日当周，国内重点大炼 化项目价差为 2502.21 元/吨，环比变化+0.76 元/吨（+0.03%）；国 外重点大炼化项目价差为 1152.16 元/吨，环比变化-67.70 元/吨（- 5.55% ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2026 年 1 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心上移，其中 WTI 2 月合约收盘上涨 1.77 美元至 57.76 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 3.16%。布伦特 3 月合约收盘上涨 2.03 美元至 61.99 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 3.39%。SC2602 以 424.6 元/桶收盘，上涨 6.6 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 1.58%。美国总统特朗普威胁称，如果伊朗杀死抗议 | | | | 者，将对其进行"沉重"打击。在当前市场预期原油供应将过剩 | | | | 的背景下，伊朗石油供应中断将构成意料之外的障碍。1 月 8 日， | | | 原油 | 伊朗国家媒体报道，总统马苏德·佩泽什基安警告国内供应商不 | 震荡 | | | 要囤积或过高定价商品，德黑兰正在全国范围抗议经济困难期间 | | | | 推行高风险的补贴改革。根据局势的发展，伊朗的石油出口，相 | | | | 当于全球供应的 2%，可能面临风险。伊拉克政府此前发表声明说， | | | ...

| 纯苯-苯乙烯日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2026年1月9日 | | | | 张晓影 | Z0003135 | | 上游价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品期 | 1月8日 | 1月7日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | 布伦特原油(3月) | 61.99 | 59.96 | 2.03 | 3.4% | | | | | | | | 美元/桶 | | WTI原油(2月) | 57.76 | 55.99 | 1.77 | 3.2% | | | CFR日本石脑油 | 541 | 533 | 8 | 1.5% | | | CFR东北亚乙烯 | 745 | 745 | 0 | 0.0% | | | CFR中国纪本 | 674 | 672 | 2 | 0.3% | 美元/吨 | | 纯苯-石脑油 | 133 | 139 | -6 | -4.3% | | | 乙烯-石胸沿 | 204 | 212 | -8 | -3.8% | | | 纯苯(中石化华东挂牌价) | 5300 | ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油： （钟美燕，从业资格号：F3045334；交易咨询资格号：Z0002410） 周四油价重心上移，其中WTI 2月合约收盘上涨1.77美元至57.76美元/桶，涨幅3.16%。布伦特3月合约收 盘上涨2.03美元至61.99美元/桶，涨幅3.39%。SC2602以424.6元/桶收盘，上涨6.6元/桶，涨幅为1.58%。 美国总统特朗普威胁称，如果伊朗杀死抗议者，将对其进行"沉重"打击。在当前市场预期原油供应将过 剩的背景下，伊朗石油供应中断将构成意料之外的障碍。1月8日，伊朗国家媒体报道，总统马苏德·佩 泽什基安警告国内供应商不要囤积或过高定价商品，德黑兰正在全国范围抗议经济困难期间推行高风险 的补贴改革。根据局势的发展，伊朗的石油出口，相当于全球供应的2%，可能面临风险。伊拉克政府 此前发表声明说，内阁已批准一项由国家接管该国南部的西古尔纳-2油田经营的计划。此举是为了避免 因美国制裁油田原经营方俄罗斯卢克石油公司而影响到后续生产出口。当前来看，来自地缘不确定性的 影响加剧，需进一步平衡综合影响，油价反复震荡运行。 燃料油： （杜冰沁， ...

首席点评： 连续 14 个月增加黄金储备 截至 2025 年 12 月末，我国外汇储备规模为 33579 亿美元，环比上升 115 亿美元， 再创 2015 年 12 月以来新高；黄金储备规模为 7415 万盎司，环比增加 3 万盎司， 为连续第 14 个月增加。央行公告，1 月 8 日将开展 11000 亿元 3 个月期买断式 逆回购操作，连续第三个月等量续作。中国物流与采购联合会发布数据显示，2025 年 12 月份，全球制造业 PMI 为 49.5%，较上月微幅下降 0.1 个百分点，连续 10 个月运行在 49%-50%的区间内。美国 2025 年 12 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 指数上升 1.8 点至 54.4，为 2024 年 10 月以来的最高水平。ADP 数据显示，美国企业 12 月私 营部门就业人数增加 4.1 万，扭转了前月的下滑趋势，但低于市场预期。 重点品种：黄金、股指 贵金属：贵金属震荡整理。从宏观面来看，近期公布的经济数据显示美国通胀压 力缓解，就业仍然疲软，美联储降息预期强化，全球同步处于降息周期，宽松的 流动性环境为贵金属的上涨提供有力支撑。对于黄金而言，美元信用动摇、央行 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报 | | 周三，上期所燃料油主力合约 FU2603 收跌 1.38%，报 2437 元/ | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 吨；低硫燃料油主力合约 LU2603 收跌 2.29%，报 2860 元/吨。供 | | | | 应端，新加坡预计在未来几周将迎来稳定的低硫燃料油套利船货 | | | | 及调油组分的到货，将持续增加当地现有的库存。新加坡低硫燃 | | | | 料油市场预计在 2026 年 1-2 月都将保持供应充足。新加坡高硫 | | | | 船货到港量也将继续增加。预计 1 月新加坡燃料油整体供应过剩。 | | | 燃料油 | 需求端，受假期影响含硫 0.5%船用燃料油的加注需求清淡；而受 | 震荡 | | | 安装脱硫塔的船舶数量增加的推动，高硫船用油加注需求维持强 | | | | 势，高硫市场预计在 1 月将继续获得船燃和炼化需求方面的支撑， | | | | 而低硫燃料油市场需求预计仍难有较大起色。整体来看，高、低 | | | | 硫燃料油市场因供应充足预计继续承压，未来一个月 FU 和 LU | | | | 绝对价格或仍以跟随油价 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2026 年 1 月 7 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心再度回落，其中 WTI 2 月合约收盘下跌 1.19 美元至 | | | | 57.13 美元/桶，跌幅 2.04%。布伦特 3 月合约收盘下跌 1.06 美元 | | | | 至 60.70 美元/桶，跌幅 1.72%。SC2602 以 426.1 元/桶收盘，下跌 | | | | 1.2 元/桶，跌幅为 0.28%。库存数据方面，API 数据显示，上周， | | | | 美国 API 原油库存减少 276.6 万桶，之前一周为增加 174.7 万桶。 | | | | API 库欣原油库存增加 66.5 万桶，前值为增加 84.5 桶。成品油汽 | | | | 油库存增加 441 万桶，前值为增加 624.8 万桶、馏分油库存增加 | | | | 492.6 万桶，前值为增加 97.7 万桶。消息称美国与委内瑞拉正在 | | | 原油 | 商讨将委内瑞拉的原油出口至美国一事。1 月 7 日美国总统特朗 | 震荡 | | | 普 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium - long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to move in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and it's advisable to wait and see for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Cautiously holding long positions for copper, strengthening observation for aluminum, suggesting waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies for nickel, range trading for tin, gold, silver, and expecting lithium carbonate to move in a range [1] - **Energy Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol; temporarily waiting and seeing for caustic soda and soda ash; expecting polyolefins to be weakly volatile [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Bullish on cotton and cotton yarn, apple, with jujube expected to rebound from the bottom [1] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Short - term shorting on rallies for near - month hog contracts and cautiously bullish on far - month contracts; current 02 egg contracts can be hedged on rallies for breeding enterprises; cautiously chasing highs for corn in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain holders; near - month soybean meal to be treated strongly on dips and far - month weakly; three major oils' rebound is limited, and previous long positions should be gradually liquidated [1] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes the supply - demand situation, price trends, market news, and policy factors of each product, and gives corresponding trading strategies such as long - term bullish, short - term trading, range trading, and waiting and seeing. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Medium - long term is bullish, buy on dips. After the PMI returned to expansion in December and with strong expectations of policy front - loading at the beginning of the year, the market may develop further. Currently close to the previous high, pay attention to whether it breaks through or retraces [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a range. Recent positive news such as fund fee regulations and bank EVE indicators have been quickly digested, and the current low static bond yields and high - intensity long - term bond supply do not support large - scale institutional bond purchases [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. The core contradiction lies in the game between the strong bearish reality and weak marginal support. The short - term supply - demand pattern is difficult to change, and it is advisable to trade on the right side of the range [7] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The price bottomed out and rebounded on Tuesday. The static valuation is neutral, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not large. Pay attention to the weekly steel export data in January [7] - **Glass**: It's advisable to wait and see. The supply - side is expected to be positive, but the demand is weak. There are still positive drivers for the price in the short term, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Cautiously hold long positions. The price is in a high - volatility and high - uncertainty stage. Although there is medium - long - term support on the supply side, the current price has over - reflected the positives, and there is a risk of retracement. It may maintain a high - level wide - range shock [10] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. The price is mainly driven by expectations and capital, but the fundamentals are weak. The upward pressure is large in January, and the upward space should be viewed cautiously [12] - **Nickel**: Wait and see or short on rallies. The nickel market has an overall surplus situation in the medium - long term, although there was a short - term rebound [14] - **Tin**: Range trading. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand in the consumer electronics and photovoltaic sectors is weak. It is expected to maintain a strong - side shock [14] - **Silver and Gold**: Range trading. Supported by liquidity and the weakening of the US economic data, the medium - term price center of gravity moves up. For silver, hold long positions cautiously; for gold, trade in the range and be cautious about chasing highs [16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Move in a range. The supply and demand are both in a state of change, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [17][18] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading at a low level. The overall supply - demand is still weak, but the low valuation and potential policy and cost disturbances should be noted [18] - **Caustic Soda**: Temporarily wait and see. There is short - term delivery pressure, and the rebound space is limited without production cuts [20] - **Styrene**: Range trading. The current valuation is high, and it should be viewed cautiously and weakly. Pay attention to the cost and supply - demand pattern in the medium - long term [20] - **Rubber**: Range trading. The cost support is strengthening, but the inventory is increasing, and the tire production capacity utilization rate is mixed. The price shows a strong - side shock [22] - **Urea**: Range trading. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price fluctuates widely [23] - **Methanol**: Range trading. The supply in the mainland recovers, the downstream demand is mixed, and the price in some areas is strong due to geopolitical and port factors [25] - **Polyolefins**: Weakly volatile. The supply is expected to shrink in the first quarter of 2026, but the demand improvement is insufficient, and the upward space is limited [26] - **Soda Ash**: Temporarily wait and see. The supply is in surplus, and the cost support is strong. It is advisable to leave the market and wait and see [27] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Bullish. The global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the current price maintains a strong - side shock [29] - **Apple**: Bullish. The market of late - harvested Fuji apples in the warehouse is stable, with slow trading [29] - **Jujube**: Rebound from the bottom. The acquisition in Xinjiang is almost over, and the market trading atmosphere is different in different regions [30] Agricultural and Livestock - **Hog**: Short - term shorting on rallies for near - month contracts and cautiously bullish on far - month contracts. The supply pressure exists in the short term, and the price is expected to be under pressure before and after the Spring Festival. The long - term price increase is limited, and hedging can be carried out on rallies [32] - **Egg**: Range trading. The current 02 contract can be hedged on rallies for breeding enterprises. The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. The medium - long - term supply pressure still exists [36] - **Corn**: Weakly volatile. In the short term, there is no strong driving force for the price to rise, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing highs. In the medium - long term, the demand will gradually be released, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [39] - **Soybean Meal**: Range trading. The near - month 03 contract can be treated strongly on dips, and the far - month 05 contract is under pressure [40] - **Oils**: The rebound is limited. In the short term, the fundamentals lack positive factors, and the upward momentum is insufficient. In the medium - long term, there are still some positive points [46]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 周二，上期所沥青主力合约BU2602收跌0.35%，报3144元/吨。近期稀释沥青港口到货量短期保持稳 定，主要源于前期订货船只陆续到港，预计1月国内炼厂原料供应暂未受美委地缘事件直接影响，不过 1-2月船货较少，目前稀释沥青库存支撑到3月底，稀释沥青远月贴水报价已出现小幅回升，未来原料供 应有不确定性；叠加主力炼厂释放冬储合同，价格2900-2920元/吨左右，对盘面有一定底部支撑。不过 需要注意部分炼厂有一定阶段性出货压力。短期来看，沥青市场在原料和供应端支撑之下底部或现，当 前美委地缘局势进一步发酵，市场关注重点或转向未来原料供应，预计沥青价格以企稳偏强为主。 橡胶： 原油： （钟美燕，从业资格号：F3045334；交易咨询资格号：Z0002410） 周二油价重心再度回落，其中WTI 2月合约收盘下跌1.19美元至57.13美元/桶，跌幅2.04%。布伦特3月合 约收盘下跌1.06美元至60.70美元/桶，跌幅1.72%。SC2602以426.1元/桶收盘，下跌1.2元/桶，跌幅为 0.28%。库存数据方面，API数据显示，上周，美国AP ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2026 年 1 月 6 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价重心上移，其中 WTI 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.10 美元至 58.32 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.74%。布伦特 3 月合约收盘上涨 1.01 美元至 61.76 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.66%。SC2602 以 428.1 元/桶收盘，上涨 1.3 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 0.30%。自元旦期间委内瑞拉局势升级后，油价表现超 | | | | 出市场预期，日内多波动，截至收盘上涨。欧佩克发表声明说， | | | | 欧佩克和非欧佩克产油国中的 8 个主要产油国决定，维持 2025 年 | | | | 11 月初制定的产量计划，在 2026 年 2 月和 3 月继续暂停增产。 | | | | 为维护石油市场稳定，8 国将根据市场情况灵活调整增产节奏。 | | | 原油 | 作为欧佩克创始成员国，委内瑞拉拥有全球最大的已探明原油储 | 震荡 | | | 量，达 303 亿桶，约占全球总量的 17%。不过 ...