1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Supply is tight in the short - term, but supply pressure will gradually appear. Demand has some support but the terminal demand lacks positive guidance. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 15,500 - 17,500, and the follow - up progress of the US - Iran conflict should be monitored [1]. Polyolefins - The supply pattern of domestic and foreign production cuts, declining import expectations, and increasing exports makes the inventory of the 05 contract of LLDPE and PP low. The core logic of "strong cost + reduced supply" dominates the pricing power. In April, the spot is expected to tighten and the basis to strengthen [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the cost support weakens, and the profit of the combined - alkali method is expected to decline. It is expected to fluctuate, and the SA605 contract is expected to be in the range of 1,150 - 1,250. For glass, the cost support weakens, and the inventory pressure exists. It is also expected to fluctuate, and the FG605 contract has limited downward space. Short positions can be held [3]. LPG - The LPG price has declined. The upstream and downstream operating rates have decreased to varying degrees. The overall LPG market is affected by factors such as geopolitical risks and inventory changes, and the price is expected to fluctuate [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term due to factors such as increased supply, inventory accumulation, and weak demand. PVC has a certain cost support, but the price may be adjusted weakly in the short - term due to factors such as weak export demand and fading chemical sentiment [5]. Urea - The urea supply has decreased slightly, and the inventory is at a relatively low level, providing bottom support for the price. However, the supply is still abundant, and the demand is in a slack period. The market lacks clear driving factors, and it is expected to continue to operate in a narrow range. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 1,830 - 1,900 [6]. Crude Oil - The main trading logic is "geopolitical support + policy suppression". In the short - term, the geopolitical risk premium has declined, and the oil price may turn to a weak - oscillation pattern. However, the supply shortage still exists, and the oil price will fluctuate between geopolitical support and policy suppression. The negotiation progress and the navigation situation in the Mandeb Strait need to be tracked [7]. Methanol - The methanol market has a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The supply is expected to increase in the long - term, while the demand is improving. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the risks of geopolitical situation changes and weakening MTO profits [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - For pure benzene, the supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to improve. It may follow the oil price fluctuations, and the EB05 - BZ05 spread can be shorted at high levels. For styrene, the supply is stable, the demand is weakening, and the profit is being compressed. It also follows the oil price fluctuations [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX has a tight supply - demand expectation in April and still has price support. PTA has limited self - driving force and follows the cost fluctuations. Ethylene glycol has cost support and is expected to go up, but there is a risk of a pull - back. Short - fiber has weak self - driving force and follows the raw material fluctuations. Bottle - chip is expected to have a tight supply - demand situation and strong processing fees in April [11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of various rubber varieties have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling. The basis of full - latex has increased [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread has decreased, the 1 - 5 spread has increased, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased significantly [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Thailand in January has increased, while that of Indonesia and India has decreased. The operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires are relatively stable. The export volume of tires in February has decreased, and the import volume of natural rubber has also decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory has increased slightly, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE has decreased [1]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 have all declined. The spreads between different contracts have also changed [2]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of PE plants has decreased, while the weighted operating rate of PE downstream has increased. The operating rate of PP plants has decreased slightly, and the operating rate of PP powder has decreased significantly [2]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of PE has increased, while the social inventory has decreased. The enterprise inventory and trader inventory of PP have both decreased [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of glass in different regions are stable, and the futures prices of glass 2605 and 2609 have declined. The basis of 05 has increased [3]. - **Soda - Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of soda ash in different regions are stable, and the futures prices of soda ash 2605 and 2609 have declined. The basis of 05 has increased [3]. - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate and weekly output of soda ash have decreased, and the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass has also decreased [3]. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of glass has decreased slightly, and the factory - warehouse inventory of soda ash has decreased slightly [3]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The new - construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate have changed to different degrees, with some improving and some still in a negative growth state [3]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG futures contracts have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have also changed. The spot price in South China has decreased slightly [4]. - **External - Market Prices**: The prices of FEI and CP contracts have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling [4]. - **Inventory**: The refinery storage - capacity ratio of LPG has decreased, while the port inventory and port storage - capacity ratio have increased slightly [4]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream main - refineries has decreased, and the operating rate of downstream PDH has decreased [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling [5]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda and PVC have changed [5]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of the caustic - soda and PVC industries have increased slightly, and the profits of some PVC production methods have decreased [5]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of the downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed to different degrees [5]. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of caustic soda has increased, and the upstream factory - warehouse inventory and total social inventory of PVC have decreased [5]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: The futures price of urea has oscillated weakly, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [6]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite and steam - coal are stable [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizers are stable [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea has decreased slightly, the operating rate of urea production plants has decreased, and the inventory has decreased [6]. Crude Oil - **Crude - Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [7]. - **Refined - Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined - oil products such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have also changed [7]. - **Refined - Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined - oil products in different regions have decreased [7]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory of methanol have all decreased [9]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream domestic enterprises has increased, and the operating rate of downstream MTO devices has increased [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha have changed to different degrees [10]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene spot and futures have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports have decreased [10]. - **Industrial - Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the pure - benzene and styrene industrial chains have changed to different degrees [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY have changed [11]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - **Industrial - Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the polyester industrial chain, including PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream products, have changed [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the continuous fermentation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict and the release of a cease - fire signal by the US, the market's concern about the conflict escalation has cooled, leading to a significant decline in the futures prices of energy and chemical products. The decline in coal prices has also dragged down the prices of olefins. For PE, the supply is expected to tighten further, and the demand is gradually recovering, but the high - price raw materials make the downstream cautious. In the short term, the price still has support under the background of supply contraction. For PP, the supply is expected to continue to shrink, and the export demand is rising. In the short term, the price still has strong support due to the supply reduction and strong support from raw material propane [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 8614 yuan/ton (-190), the closing price of the PP main contract is 9103 yuan/ton (-166). LL North China spot is 8500 yuan/ton (-300), LL East China spot is 8600 yuan/ton (-330), PP East China spot is 9150 yuan/ton (-200). LL North China basis is -114 yuan/ton (-110), LL East China basis is -14 yuan/ton (-140), PP East China basis is 47 yuan/ton (-34) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 76.2% (-3.8%), PP operating rate is 70.0% (-0.5%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is -1195.9 yuan/ton (+415.7), PP oil - based production profit is -1015.9 yuan/ton (+415.7), PDH - made PP production profit is -3107.4 yuan/ton (+13.7) [1] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit is -497.9 yuan/ton (+431.4), PP import profit is -1076.1 yuan/ton (+268.3), PP export profit is 254.2 US dollars/ton (-45.0) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 38.9% (+3.4%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 47.2% (+1.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 41.1% (+0.9%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 63.4% (+1.5%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The domestic refineries are in the stage of concentrated load reduction, and the planned maintenance devices from the end of March to April will increase. The supply is expected to tighten. The demand is in the spring plowing season, and the rigid demand is gradually released, but the high - price raw materials make the downstream cautious. The inventory removal channel has not been continuously opened, but the basis has strengthened slightly. In the short term, the price still has support [3] - **PP**: The geopolitical conflict is still uncertain, and the supply of raw materials such as crude oil and propane is still a concern. The domestic refineries continue to reduce the load, and the PP operating rate is expected to decline to a low point in recent years. The supply continues to tighten, and the upstream inventory has been significantly reduced. The downstream operating rate is gradually rising, but the high - price PP squeezes the downstream profit, and the downstream procurement is cautious. The export window is open, and the export demand is rising. In the short term, the price still has strong support [4] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging - **Inter - period**: None - **Inter - variety**: Cautiously shrink the spread of LL05 - PP05 when it is high [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - With the supply pressure from the rubber tapping season and the support from high overseas costs and geopolitical events boosting synthetic rubber, the subsequent rubber price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 15,500 - 17,500. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the conflict between the United States and Iran [1]. Polyolefins - The pricing power returns to hedging merchants, the basis strengthens, and the transaction volume increases. PP and PE continue to see a reduction in supply and an increase in demand. PP is destocking, while PE inventory is accumulating. In April, it is expected that the spot market will tighten and the basis will strengthen, driven by the "strong cost + reduced supply" logic [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the spot price is stable, the supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is weak. The cost - end support has weakened, but the downside space is expected to be limited. It is generally viewed as oscillating, with the SA605 contract referring to the range of 1,150 - 1,250. Short positions can be held. - For glass, the spot price is stable, the supply has decreased, the demand is sluggish, the cost support has weakened, and there is still inventory - removal pressure. It is also viewed as oscillating. Short positions can be held [3]. LPG - The LPG price has generally declined. The market is affected by the weakening of geopolitical risk premiums and concerns about high - price demand suppression. It is expected to be in a weak - oscillating pattern, but the supply shortage still provides fundamental support. Attention should be paid to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation in the Mandeb Strait [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the futures are weakly oscillating, the supply has increased slightly, the inventory has accumulated, and the downstream demand increment is less than expected. It is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. - For PVC, the futures have fallen significantly, the export demand is poor, the market supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price has a strong bottom support. It may be weakly adjusted in the short term [5]. Urea - The urea futures are weakly oscillating, the spot price is stable, the supply has decreased slightly, the inventory is at a relatively low level, but the supply is still loose. The demand is in a transition period, and the market lacks clear upward or downward drivers. It is expected to continue narrow - range consolidation, with the main contract focusing on the range of 1,830 - 1,900 [6]. Crude Oil - The main trading theme is "geopolitical support + policy suppression". In the short term, the geopolitical risk premium has declined, and the oil price may turn to a weak - oscillating pattern. However, the supply shortage still exists, and the oil price will fluctuate between geopolitical support and policy suppression. Attention should be paid to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation in the Mandeb Strait [7]. Methanol - The methanol market has a near - strong and far - weak pattern, with a short - term tight - balance supply - demand situation. The supply side is expected to see an increase in far - month imports, while the demand side is generally positive, but the MTO profit is weakening. Two major risks need to be watched: geopolitical easing and continuous compression of MTO profit [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - For pure benzene, the supply is expected to decrease, the demand is expected to improve, and the short - term price may fluctuate with the oil price. It is recommended to wait and see, and shrink the EB05 - BZ05 spread when it is high. - For styrene, the supply is stable, the demand is weakening slightly, but the supply - demand situation is still tight. The short - term absolute price fluctuates with the oil price, and the same strategy as for pure benzene is recommended [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply - demand is weak in the short term, but the overall supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and the price has support. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the oil price trend. - For PTA, the short - term self - driving force is limited, and the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side. The same strategy as for PX is recommended. - For ethylene glycol, the cost support is strong, the supply is expected to decline significantly in the second quarter, and the price has upward momentum. However, attention should be paid to the risk of a pull - back. - For short - fiber, the supply - demand is weakening, and it mainly fluctuates with raw materials. The same strategy as for PX is recommended, and the PF processing margin can be expanded at a low level below 800. - For bottle - grade polyester chips, the supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and the processing margin is expected to be strong. The PR unilateral strategy is the same as for PTA, and the main - contract processing margin is expected to be strong [11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of most natural rubber varieties have declined slightly, with the Yunnan Guofu full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai dropping 0.31%, and the Thai standard mixed rubber price falling 0.63%. The basis of full - latex has increased, and the non - standard price difference has also increased [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread has decreased by 4.70%, the 1 - 5 spread has increased by 8.44%, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased by 120.00% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production in Thailand in January increased by 11.09%, while that in Indonesia and India decreased. The tire export volume in February decreased by 12.40%, and the natural rubber import volume decreased by 28.46%. The inventory in the bonded area increased by 0.85%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 9.23% [1]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 have all declined, with the L2605 closing price dropping 2.16%. The L59 spread, PP59 spread, and LP05 spread have also changed [2]. - **Upstream and Downstream Data**: The PE device operating rate has decreased by 4.79%, the downstream weighted operating rate has increased by 5.75%. The PE enterprise inventory has increased by 3.45%, and the social inventory has decreased by 6.58%. The PP enterprise inventory has decreased by 16.19%, and the trader inventory has decreased by 8.18% [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of glass and soda ash are stable. The glass 2605 contract has dropped 2.02%, and the soda ash 2605 contract has dropped 2.49%. The 05 basis of glass and soda ash has increased [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash production capacity utilization rate has decreased by 5.22%, and the weekly production has decreased by 5.22%. The float - glass daily melting volume has decreased by 0.62%, and the photovoltaic glass daily melting volume has decreased by 2.28%. The glass factory inventory has decreased by 1.09%, and the soda ash factory inventory has decreased by 0.10% [3]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The main LPG contract PG2605 has dropped 4.04%, and the PG05 - 06 and PG05 - 07 spreads have decreased. The South China spot price has decreased by 0.28%, and the deliverable spot price has decreased by 1.24% [4]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio has decreased by 4.34%, the port inventory has increased by 0.68%, and the port storage capacity ratio has increased by 0.67%. The upstream - main refinery operating rate has decreased by 3.54%, and the downstream - PDH operating rate has decreased by 3.09% [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda has decreased by 4.3%, and the price of East China calcium - carbide - method PVC has decreased by 3.9%. The SH2605 and V2605 contracts have also declined [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry operating rate has increased by 0.8%, and the PVC total operating rate has increased by 1.0%. The alumina industry operating rate has increased by 0.1%, and the Longzhong sample PVC pipe operating rate has increased by 5.1% [5]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: The urea futures are weakly oscillating, and the spot price is stable. The main contract has dropped 2.71%. The 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 spreads have changed [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily production has decreased by 0.36%, the production capacity utilization rate has decreased by 4.17%, and the factory - warehouse inventory has decreased by 13.40% [6]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude has dropped 3.18%, WTI crude has dropped 1.46%, and SC crude has dropped 1.80%. The Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 spreads have increased [7]. - **Refined Oil Products**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil have all declined. The refined - oil cracking spreads in the United States, Europe, and Singapore have also decreased [7]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The MA2605 and MA2609 closing prices have declined, with the MA2605 closing price dropping 2.71%. The MA59 spread has decreased by 3.90%, and the MTO05盘面 profit has increased by 44.94% [9]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The methanol enterprise inventory has decreased by 10.71%, the port inventory has decreased by 8.42%, and the social inventory has decreased by 9.05%. The upstream - domestic enterprise operating rate has increased by 1.74%, and the downstream - external - procurement MTO device operating rate has increased by 10.42% [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of Brent crude and WTI crude have changed. The price of pure benzene and styrene has declined. The EB05 - BZ05 spread has increased by 4.6% [10]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports has decreased by 3.3%, and the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports has decreased by 4.6%. The domestic pure benzene operating rate has increased by 6.4%, and the styrene operating rate has decreased by 0.7% [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, and CFR Japan naphtha have changed. The prices of PTA, MEG, and polyester products have also fluctuated [11]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The MEG port inventory has increased by 3.5%, and the arrival expectation has decreased by 33.3%. The Asian PX operating rate has decreased by 2.8%, and the PTA operating rate has increased by 3.6% [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to move in a sideways pattern [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; shorting on rebounds for glass [1][8][10] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Holding short positions moderately on rallies for copper; strengthening observation for aluminum; suggesting waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading for tin; expecting gold, silver and lithium carbonate to move in a sideways pattern [1][14][20][24] - **Energy Chemicals**: Bullish - biased sideways movement for PVC, caustic soda, styrene, polyolefin, and rubber; shorting on rallies for soda ash; range trading for urea and methanol [1][25][27][32] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Bullish - biased sideways movement for cotton and cotton yarn; expecting apples and jujubes to move in a sideways pattern [1][38][39] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Rolling short positions at high levels for the 05 and 07 contracts of live pigs; shorting cautiously on weak rebounds of near - month contracts for eggs; hedging cautiously on weak rebounds of near - month contracts for corn; paying attention to the support performance at 2900 - 2950 for the 05 contract of soybean meal; bullish - biased sideways movement and rolling long strategy for oils and fats [1][43][45][47] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions and market outlooks for various futures products based on comprehensive analysis of macro - economic factors, geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost - profit conditions. It emphasizes the impact of factors such as the Middle East conflict on global markets, and suggests corresponding trading strategies according to the different characteristics of each product [1][5][15] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Expected to move in a bullish - biased sideways pattern. The willingness of the US and Iran to end the Middle East conflict has led to a sharp rise in US stocks, and stock indices may be bullish - biased [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a sideways pattern. After the end of the quarter, the proportion of bonds in asset allocation may gradually increase [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Expected to move in a sideways pattern. The total inventory of coking coal has slightly increased, and the inventory transfer of coking coal and coke is smooth [8][9] - **Rebar**: Expected to move in a sideways pattern. The futures price is below the electric - furnace valley - electricity cost, and the demand is still recovering [10] - **Glass**: Expected to be weak. The hype of coal cost has weakened, and the demand in the peak season is not good [11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level sideways movement. Affected by macro - factors, there is a downward risk, but domestic inventory reduction and the consumption peak season will provide support [14][15] - **Aluminum**: High - level sideways movement. Supply concerns may boost the price, and attention should be paid to the development of the situation [17] - **Nickel**: Sideways movement. The support at the ore end is strong, but the lack of demand and macro - disturbances limit the upward drive [18][19] - **Tin**: Sideways movement. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is in a state of rigid procurement [20] - **Silver and Gold**: Sideways movement. Affected by the Middle East situation and economic data, the medium - term price center has moved up [21][22][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound sideways movement. Supply and demand are both increasing, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [24] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, there are opportunities for short - term rebound and long - term industrial upgrading [25] - **Caustic Soda**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by spring maintenance and downstream replenishment, exports may increase [27] - **Styrene**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by cost and with low inventory pressure, it is expected to maintain de - stocking [28] - **Polyolefin**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by cost and with marginal improvement in supply - demand [29][30] - **Rubber**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. In the short term, it is in a game between synthetic rubber support and inventory pressure [31] - **Urea**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supply is at a high level, and demand is supported by agricultural and compound fertilizer needs, with smooth de - stocking [32][33] - **Methanol**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. The supply - demand situation is relatively stable, and inventory has decreased [34] - **Soda Ash**: Shorting on rallies. Supply is in excess, and the price may continue to be under pressure [35][36] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Global cotton supply is increasing, but domestic consumption is strong, and the price of chemical fiber has a positive impact [38] - **Apples**: Sideways movement. The market is polarized, with good - quality goods being in high demand [39] - **Jujubes**: Sideways movement. The raw material acquisition in the production area is based on quality, and the enthusiasm of merchants to restock is not high [41] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: Bottom - building sideways movement. In the short term, the supply exceeds the demand, and in the long term, the price may rise after the supply tightens [43] - **Eggs**: Bearish - biased sideways movement. In the short term, the price increase is weak, and in the long term, it is in a state of bottom - building [45] - **Corn**: Range - bound sideways movement. The supply - demand situation is relatively balanced, and the near - month contract can be hedged on weak rebounds [47] - **Soybean Meal**: High - level sideways movement. The 05 contract should pay attention to the support at around 2900 [47] - **Oils and Fats**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by palm oil de - stocking and the B50 plan in Indonesia, but the supply will be relatively loose in the second quarter [53]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China Coal Energy's revenue is expected to decline by 21.8% year-on-year to 148.06 billion yuan in 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders decreasing by 20.0% to 14.5 billion yuan [1] - The sales volume of self-produced coal slightly decreased by 0.9% to 136.36 million tons, while the selling price dropped by 13.7% from 562 yuan per ton to 485 yuan, leading to a 15.6% decline in revenue from self-produced coal business, which is the main reason for the profit decline in 2025 [1] - The decline in profits has narrowed in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half, with a decrease of 31.5% in the first half and a recovery in coal prices observed in the second half [1] Group 2 - The geopolitical risks in Iran have increased coal demand as coal can serve as a substitute for oil and natural gas, improving the supply-demand structure of the coal market [2] - The price of power coal at Qinhuangdao Port (Q5500) is approximately 12% higher than the same period last year, indicating a strong performance despite the off-season [2] - The coal chemical business, accounting for about 12% of total revenue, is expected to provide additional momentum for China Coal Energy's performance in 2026, with prices of major products like polyolefins and urea rising due to high oil prices [2]

Robotics - The core advancement in Xiaomi's robotic dexterous hand includes a tactile coverage area of 8200 square millimeters, enhancing full palm perception and efficient data collection [2][8] - The demand for high-performance actuators is expected to surge due to the public unveiling of the "machine wolf" combat training footage, indicating a shift towards more complex operational scenarios [9] - The humanoid robotics industry is anticipated to transition from small-scale validation to a new phase of growth, with significant attention on upstream components and main manufacturers [9][10] Consumer Electronics - Xtep International reported a revenue of 14.15 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with a net profit of 1.37 billion yuan, up 10.8% [13][14] - The company maintains a strong dividend policy with a payout ratio exceeding 50%, indicating robust shareholder returns [14][15] - The professional sports segment, including brands like Saucony and Maile, saw a revenue increase of 30.8%, highlighting a successful high-end positioning strategy [15][16] Food and Beverage - Weilian Meiwai achieved a revenue of 7.224 billion yuan in 2025, marking a 15.3% year-on-year growth, with a net profit increase of 33.4% [18][19] - The company’s vegetable products segment, particularly the konjac category, has driven significant growth, with a notable increase in offline distribution efficiency [19][20] - The company is exploring overseas markets, with international revenue growing by 48% in 2025, indicating potential for further expansion [19][20] New Consumption - Ruoyuchen reported a total revenue of 3.432 billion yuan in 2025, a remarkable growth of 94.35%, with self-owned brands contributing significantly to this increase [21][22] - The self-owned brand segment achieved a revenue of 1.813 billion yuan, up 261.94%, underscoring its role as a key growth driver [22][23] - The brand management and e-commerce operations have shown strong development, with revenue contributions of 895 million yuan and 723 million yuan, respectively [23][24] Utilities and Environmental Protection - China Coal Energy reported a revenue of 148.06 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 21.8%, with a net profit of 17.88 billion yuan, down 7.3% [26][27] - The company has focused on cost reduction strategies to mitigate the impact of declining coal prices, achieving a unit sales cost of 252 yuan per ton, down 10.7% year-on-year [27][28] - The company anticipates a rebound in coal prices and chemical product prices in 2026, which could enhance profitability [28][30] Transportation - COSCO Shipping Special reported a revenue of 23.211 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a growth of 38.32%, with a net profit of 1.78 billion yuan, up 16.29% [33][34] - The multi-purpose vessel segment remains a stable revenue source, contributing approximately 57.17% of total revenue, with new vessel acquisitions expected to drive further growth [34][35] - The company plans to expand its fleet significantly, with expectations to increase its total cargo volume to over 31 million tons by 2026 [35][36] Pharmaceuticals - WuXi XDC, a leading CRDMO in the bioconjugate drug sector, reported a revenue of 5.944 billion yuan for 2025, a 46.7% increase, with a net profit margin improvement [38] - The company has seen a significant rise in its order backlog, with a total of 252 projects, indicating strong future growth potential [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense, with Trump warning Iran and the Houthi rebels launching missile attacks on Israel, which may lead to further escalation of the conflict and push up oil prices. The oil price is expected to fluctuate, and the overall center of gravity is moving upward [1]. - High - and low - sulfur fuel oils are supported by the cost of crude oil, and the supply is actually tightening. They are expected to maintain high - level operation, but the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the end of the conflict should be noted [2]. - The demand for asphalt is gradually recovering, and the price is expected to be strong. However, the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the end of the conflict should be noted, and its price volatility is expected to be smaller than that of other oil products [2]. - The polyester industry chain follows the cost - end fluctuations. The PX has many overhauls, the PTA operating load is at a high level, and the coal - based and oil - based production of ethylene glycol is differentiated. The downstream polyester yarn sales are sluggish [3]. - The natural rubber inventory is slightly increasing, and the butadiene rubber is oscillating strongly. The cash trends of natural rubber and butadiene are differentiated [5]. - The methanol inventory is starting to decline, but the supply recovery of Iranian plants may suppress price increases, and the market is prone to large fluctuations [5]. - The polyolefin market is de - stocking, but the short - term geopolitical risk pushes up the cost, which may hinder the growth of subsequent demand [6]. - The PVC export will supplement the domestic demand to a certain extent, and the short - selling power has not weakened. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of export orders and the Middle East situation [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the WTI May contract closed up $3.24 to $102.88 per barrel, a 3.25% increase; the Brent May contract closed up $0.21 to $112.78 per barrel, a 0.19% increase; the SC2605 closed at 759.9 yuan per barrel, down 3.1 yuan per barrel, a 0.41% decrease. Geopolitical tensions may further push up oil prices, and the oil price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main fuel oil contract FU2605 rose 4.05% to 4,619 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 rose 3.44% to 5,285 yuan per ton. Affected by factors such as the rise in diesel cracking and freight, the supply is tightening, and it is expected to maintain high - level operation [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract BU2606 rose 0.02% to 4,513 yuan per ton. The demand is gradually recovering, and the price is expected to be strong [2]. - **Polyester**: The TA605 closed at 6,768 yuan per ton, down 1.57%; the EG2605 closed at 5,359 yuan per ton, up 1.52%. The industry chain is affected by the cost and device changes, and the market is waiting for the development of the situation [3]. - **Rubber**: The main natural rubber contract RU2605 rose 30 yuan per ton to 16,540 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract rose 110 yuan per ton to 13,845 yuan per ton. The natural rubber inventory is slightly increasing, and the butadiene rubber is oscillating strongly [5]. - **Methanol**: The inventory is starting to decline, but the supply recovery of Iranian plants may suppress price increases, and the market is prone to large fluctuations [5]. - **Polyolefins**: The upstream device overhauls and production cuts are more, and the demand is gradually released in spring. However, the short - term geopolitical risk pushes up the cost, which may hinder the growth of subsequent demand [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The PVC export will supplement the domestic demand to a certain extent, and the short - selling power has not weakened. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of export orders and the Middle East situation [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - A table shows the basis data of various energy - chemical products on March 30, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - Trump warned Iran that unless the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, the US will destroy its oil wells, power plants, and Kharg Island. He also said that the response to Iran's attack on an Israeli refinery "will come soon" [9]. - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that as more ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the global oil market supply is sufficient, and the US will regain control of the Strait of Hormuz over time [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are multiple charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [11][14][17][20][23][27][28] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [29][30][33][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [38][40][44][47][48][51] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, etc. [54][56][57][59] - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of various energy - chemical products, such as LLDPE, PP, PTA processing fees, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow [61][63]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Though supply continues to shrink, negative feedback on the demand side is gradually emerging. The ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East disturbs the market, intensifying concerns about the supply of olefin raw materials such as naphtha and propane. The contraction of the supply side supports the rise in olefin prices. For PE, with reduced domestic refinery operations and a weak import outlook, the supply will continue to tighten. Downstream demand is in the peak spring - plowing season, but high - priced raw materials make downstream profits under pressure, and demand follows cautiously. For PP, the supply continues to tighten due to refinery cut - backs and PDH device maintenance. The opening of the export window drives up export demand, but downstream procurement is cautious. In the short term, both PE and PP prices are supported by supply contraction and strong raw material support before the Strait of Hormuz is open for navigation [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 8,804 yuan/ton (-64), and that of the PP main contract is 9,269 yuan/ton (-44). LL North China spot is 8,800 yuan/ton (+300), LL East China spot is 8,930 yuan/ton (+430), and PP East China spot is 9,350 yuan/ton (+350). LL North China basis is -4 yuan/ton (+364), LL East China basis is 126 yuan/ton (+494), and PP East China basis is 81 yuan/ton (+394) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 76.2% (-3.8%), and PP operating rate is 70.0% (-0.5%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is -1,611.6 yuan/ton (+88.3), PP oil - based production profit is -1,351.6 yuan/ton (+88.3), and PDH - based PP production profit is -3,121.1 yuan/ton (-113.1) [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL import profit is -929.2 yuan/ton (+424.6), PP import profit is -1,344.4 yuan/ton (-150.0), and PP export profit is 299.2 US dollars/ton (+8.4) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 38.9% (+3.4%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 47.2% (+1.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 41.1% (+0.9%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 63.4% (+1.5%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflict affects the supply of olefin raw materials. Domestic refineries are in a phase of concentrated production cuts, and planned maintenance of PE devices from late March to April will increase. The supply will continue to tighten. Downstream demand is in the peak spring - plowing season, but high - priced raw materials make downstream profits under pressure, and the inventory reduction channel cannot be continuously opened. Before the actual withdrawal or negotiation of the US and Israel, PE prices are still supported by supply contraction [3]. - **PP**: Uncertainty in the geopolitical conflict remains, and concerns about the supply of raw materials such as crude oil and propane persist. Domestic refineries' concentrated production cuts continue, and PDH device maintenance intensifies. The supply will continue to tighten. Downstream demand is in seasonal recovery, but high - priced PP squeezes downstream profits, and downstream procurement is cautious. The opening of the export window drives up export demand. Before the Strait of Hormuz is open for navigation, PP prices are strongly supported [4]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging. - **Inter - period**: No strategy. - **Cross - variety**: Cautiously shrink the spread of LL05 - PP05 when it is high [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 24.00 CNY [6]. Core Insights - The coal business continues to see an increase in sales volume, while cost management is being refined to lower expenses. The coal chemical business is expected to remain stable in 2025, with improved performance elasticity anticipated in 2026 [2][3]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 148.06 billion CNY, a decrease of 21.8% year-on-year. Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 17.88 billion CNY, down 7.3% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2026 is revised to 1.60 CNY, with further increases to 1.75 CNY in 2027 and 1.80 CNY in 2028 [4][12]. - The company achieved a total coal production of 135.1 million tons in 2025, a decrease of 1.8% from the previous year. The revenue from coal business was 120.4 billion CNY, down 25% year-on-year [12]. - The average selling price of self-produced coal was 485 CNY per ton, a decrease of 77 CNY per ton or 13.7% year-on-year. The unit sales cost for self-produced coal was 251.51 CNY per ton, down 30.22 CNY per ton or 10.7% year-on-year [12]. - The coal chemical business produced 6.061 million tons in 2025, an increase of 371,000 tons year-on-year. The sales prices for major products like polyolefins and urea saw declines of 9.4% and 14.4% respectively [12]. Business Development - The company is advancing its "coal-electricity-chemical-new energy" industrial chain, with projects such as the completion of the An Taibao 2×350MW low calorific value coal power project and the upcoming integration of solar and storage projects [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - LLDPE supply contraction continues with structural differentiation, and PP supply is strongly supported by increased cracking and PDH maintenance in April [1]. - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, affecting the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which is expected to strengthen raw materials like naphtha and raise PE costs. For PP, C3 is affected by supply disruptions from Saudi Arabia and Iran, with strong cost support and high PDH maintenance [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **LLDPE Futures (L2605)**: Yesterday's closing price was 8804, with a daily decline of 0.72%, trading volume of 1,267,301, and a decrease of 2,555 in positions. The 05 - contract basis was -204, and the 05 - 09 contract spread was 120. Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 8,600, 8,850, and 8,950 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **PP Futures (PP2605)**: Yesterday's closing price was 9269, with a daily decline of 0.47%, trading volume of 1,402,203, and a decrease of 19,730 in positions. The 05 - contract basis was -119, and the 05 - 09 contract spread was 338. Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 9,100, 9,150, and 9,430 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.2 Spot News - Polyolefin plastic operating rate remains at 74%. PP operating rate has dropped to 66%, with Yangzi, Jingbo, and Lanzhou Petrochemical undergoing maintenance, and Quanzhou Guoheng and Zhongjing having maintenance plans in April, which may cause the operating rate to drop below 65%. PE grades show spot differentiation, with non - standard prices being stronger. As the futures price falls, the basis strengthens slightly. The polyolefin export window remains open, and the delivery window is available, but warehouse space is difficult to secure and upstream pre - sales arrivals are slow [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **PE**: Geopolitical tensions lead to higher costs. After the holiday, the demand for mulch film is in line with the season, and the operating rate of packaging film has increased, but cost transmission takes time. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang has started mass production, and the number of maintenance and production reduction plans is expected to increase in April, resulting in a decline in standard product production and inventory reduction [2]. - **PP**: C3 is affected by supply disruptions from Saudi Arabia and Iran, with strong cost support and high PDH maintenance. There is no new production before the 2605 contract, intensifying the game between existing supply and demand. On the demand side, downstream industries have resumed work, and demand has improved month - on - month. PDH profit remains low, and multiple PDH plants in South China have not resumed operation after maintenance. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in cracking and PDH plants [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - LLDPE trend intensity: 1; PP trend intensity: 1 [4]