Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry is experiencing a stalemate in supply and demand, with PTA prices showing strength while ethylene glycol continues to weaken, leading to compressed profits for most polyester products and a predominantly weak market outlook in the short term [1] Raw Material Market Performance PTA - Price Trend: The average weekly price in East China is 4626.8 CNY/ton, up 0.90% week-on-week, indicating a strong fluctuation in spot prices [2] - Core Drivers: Supply continues to tighten due to maintenance at Sichuan Energy Investment and Yisheng Ningbo facilities, leading to an expanded inventory reduction in the balance sheet [2] - Inventory and Profit: Social inventory stands at 3.2488 million tons, down 1.21% week-on-week; average weekly profit is -281.76 CNY/ton, showing a recovery of 3.42% [3] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - Price Trend: The average weekly price in East China is 3942.6 CNY/ton, down 0.92%, marking a new low for the year [4] - Core Drivers: The market sentiment is pessimistic, with weak rebound potential and cost support dragged down by falling crude oil prices [4] - Inventory and Profit: Inventory at East China main ports is 633,000 tons, up 2.4%; average weekly profit is -990 CNY/ton, showing a slight recovery of 2.65% [5] PX - Price Trend: The CFR China market average price is 829.2 USD/ton, up 0.53% week-on-week [6] - Core Drivers: Low operating rates at Korean plants and low disproportionation benefits support the increase in PXN price spreads [6] - Supply and Demand: Domestic production is 748,100 tons, down 0.41%; domestic consumption is 939,400 tons, down 4.38%, indicating a positive supply-demand shift [7] Polyester Industry Core Data Overall Supply - Weekly production is 1.5538 million tons, up 0.27% week-on-week; average capacity utilization rate is 87.59%, slightly up by 0.07% [8] - Driving Factors: The restart of the Jinqiao facility and the commissioning of new facilities by Yuxin and Youshun, along with the delayed maintenance of Dawo, contribute to a slight increase in supply [8] Major Product Performance - **Polyester Filament**: POY 150D/48F average price is 6620 CNY/ton, up 0.61%; profit is 143.32 CNY/ton, up 13.34%; inventory is 14.1 days, up 15.57% [10] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Average price is 6287 CNY/ton, down 0.38%; profit is -189.69 CNY/ton, down 33.07%; inventory is 13.88 days, up 1.31% [10] - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: Average price is 5741 CNY/ton, down 0.03%; profit is -154.19 CNY/ton, down 19.63%; supply-demand remains stagnant [10] - **Polyester Chips**: Average price is 5575 CNY/ton, down 0.07%; profit is -101.62 CNY/ton, down 36.31%; inventory is 13.49 days, up 6.14% [10] End Demand and Weaving Market - Weaving Operating Rate: The comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 67.69%, down 0.30% [11] - Orders and Inventory: The average order days for end weaving is 13.54 days, down 0.95 days; finished product inventory for long fiber cloth is 22.85 days, up 0.68 days [11] - Demand Characteristics: Winter orders are nearing completion, with new orders showing weak growth; spring orders are starting but lack substantial support, leading to a weaker market atmosphere compared to the same period last month [11] Market Outlook for Next Week Raw Material Side - PTA: Supply continues to shrink, with inventory reduction ongoing; however, insufficient end demand is expected to keep prices in the range of 4500-4650 CNY/ton [12] - Ethylene Glycol: Total supply is expected to increase, with weakened cost support; spot prices are projected to run between 3800-3900 CNY/ton [13] - PX: Supply is expected to rise, and with potential declines in crude oil prices, the market is anticipated to remain weak, with CFR China prices around 828 USD/ton [14] Polyester Side - Supply: New facilities are expected to continue releasing incremental output, with weekly polyester production projected to slightly increase to around 1.56 million tons [15] - Demand: End weaving demand is unlikely to see substantial improvement, with new orders not connecting well, leading companies to focus on inventory digestion [15] - Price Trend: Most polyester products lack cost support, and weak demand is expected to lead to a predominantly weak market trend, with prices for polyester filament, bottle chips, and chips likely to decline slightly [15] Key Focus Areas 1. Progress and restart plans for PTA facility maintenance [16] 2. Impact of international crude oil price fluctuations on cost [16] 3. Timing of spring order launches and changes in weaving operating rates [17]