Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost drives the valuation to strengthen. For PX, the cost support is strong, the valuation follows the upward trend, and it is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA. For PTA, the cost support is also strong, the valuation rises, and it is recommended to go long on PTA and short on MEG. For MEG, there is cost support, but the supply is increasing, so it is in a short - term volatile market [3][4]. - In 2025, the polyester production capacity continues to increase by 594 tons, with an expected capacity growth rate of 6.8%. The PTA production capacity also has a large - scale addition plan, and the PX production capacity growth rate declines [5][9]. 3. Summary by Section PX - **Valuation and Profit** - The PX futures forward curve fluctuates sharply, and the valuation rises. The internal - external price difference rises again, and the PXN falls from a high level. The aromatics blending oil economy strengthens, and the chemical profit decreases [18][20][24]. - The Asian octane number recovers, while the US weakens. The Asian gasoline cracking profit is flat and slightly declines, and the naphtha cracking profit falls [33][35]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory** - The domestic PX load this week is 85.8% (-1.2%), and the Asian overall load is 75.6% (+0.5%). The overall supply is expected to increase steadily. The PX apparent consumption in May is 355 tons [55][57][58]. - The PX import volume in April is 72 tons, and it is expected to increase slightly in May. The South Korean aromatics PX production is expected to recover in May. The PX monthly inventory in May drops to 451 tons [61][67][70]. PTA - **Valuation and Profit** - The TA device load rises, and the credit warrant volume increases at high prices. The near - end valuation follows the rise of oil prices, and the 9 - 1 spread is in a positive spread. The PTA profit remains at a low level [78][80][85]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory** - The PTA operating rate this week rises to 82.6% (+2.9%), and the supply continues to increase. The PTA production in May is 591 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The export in April is 39 tons, and it is expected to be less than 30 tons in May [88][90][96]. - The social inventory is 220 (+4) tons, and the de - stocking slope slows down [112]. MEG - Ethylene Glycol - **Valuation and Profit** - The unilateral valuation rises, and the spread and basis rise first and then fall. The profits of each link decline month - on - month but remain at a high level, especially the coal - based profit [125][131]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory** - The domestic device operating rate rises to 66% (+6%). The supply increases marginally. The import profit declines month - on - month, which may affect the import in June. The port de - stocking is limited [137][139][144]. Polyester - **Valuation and Profit** - The polyester chain price stabilizes and rebounds, and the PX - naphtha margin weakens, but there is still a supply - demand gap, so it is expected to be in a high - level volatile market [87]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory** - The polyester operating rate is 90.8% (-0.5%), and it is expected to recover to 91.2% next week. The polyester production increases by 8% year - on - year. The oil price increase stimulates speculative demand, and the polyester inventory decreases rapidly [153][160][162].

聚酯数据周报 国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年5月25日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 观点汇总：供应偏紧，月差维持强势格局 单边短期趋势仍偏强。月差仍偏强。多PX空PTA持有。关注PX-MX价差回归。本周辽阳石化75万吨 PX装置停车检修10天，东营威联200万吨、中金石化、浙石化提负荷，整体国内PX负荷提升至78% （+3.9%），下周PX装置负荷将继续小幅回升。需求方面，虹港石化新装置即将投产。PX供需格局 偏紧，继续维持多PX空石脑油/PTA操作。 维持上周观点，单边趋势仍偏强，PTA加工费压缩头寸继续持有。月差中期仍然是逢低做多的思路。 供需双增，但仍是去库格局。PTA装置负荷提升至77.7%（+0.8%）。长丝工厂降负荷，整体聚酯负 荷降至94%，按照计划，如果长丝整体降负15%，未来聚酯工厂负荷下调至90%。但PTA6-7月份福 海创等装置检修仍存，仍然是去库格局。PTA月差仍将偏强 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a polyester data weekly report from Guotai Junan Futures, dated April 27, 2025 [1][2] - The core view is not to chase high prices and pay attention to position control before the holiday [3] Group 2: PX Analysis Valuation - PX valuation structure changed from C to B, with the near - end strengthening under the de - stocking pattern and the month - spread rebounding due to tariff relaxation [16] - PXN rebounded from a low level, and the internal and external price difference declined while the aromatic hydrocarbon price rebounded [18][24] - The octane number remained stable, and the MX export demand was strong. The MX isomerization unit was in loss during the oil product demand peak season [31][43] - The US exempted tariffs on MX, but high tariffs on pure benzene, PX, and toluene remained. Attention should be paid to the export rush demand during the exemption period [53] Supply and Demand - Zhejiang Petrochemical's PX unit restarted after maintenance. In March, China's PX output was 3.25 million tons, and the weekly operating rate was 73.2% (+0.2%) [59] - Many domestic and overseas PX units had maintenance plans. The Asian PX operating rate dropped to 68.6% [3][70] - The US increased tariffs on Japan and South Korea, which might affect PX logistics. In March 2025, PX imports reached 847,000 tons [69][70] Inventory - In March, the monthly PX inventory was 4.68 million tons, and the balance sheet showed a de - stocking of about 200,000 - 300,000 tons in April [75] Group 3: PTA Analysis Valuation - Morgan Qiankun's PTA short - position remained. The total net short position of Morgan Qiankun's seat was 225,000 lots (+20,000 lots) this week [81][83] - Due to concentrated PTA factory maintenance, the basis and month - spread jumped. The processing fee rebounded month - on - month [85][97] Supply and Demand - The PTA operating rate rebounded this week and will decline next week. In 2025, the cumulative PTA output from January to March was 17.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [98][102] - PTA exports remained at about 300,000 tons per month, and the inventory decreased to 2.69 million tons (-210,000 tons) [105][119] Group 4: Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Analysis Capacity - From 2023 - 2025, there were new domestic MEG units. In 2025, the new MEG capacity growth rate was 6%, with limited increments [129][132] Valuation - The MEG single - side price rebounded from the bottom. The 05 - contract long - position took delivery, and the basis long - spread positions were cut in a concentrated manner [133] - Ethylene oxide entered the peak season, and its price was seasonally stronger than that of MEG. The ethane tariff exemption would lead to a resurgence in supply [137][140] Supply and Demand - The coal - based MEG unit load increased significantly, and the operating rate will decline in May. This week, the MEG load was 68.4% (+3.1%), and the coal - based load was 63.8% (+14%) [145][146] - Due to relaxed tariff policies, MEG imports continued to rise in April and May. The port de - stocking was not significant [149][168] Group 5: Polyester Analysis Operating Rate - The polyester operating rate was 93.9% (+0.5%). The bottle - chip load increased to 90.8%, the filament load decreased to 82.8% (-3.1%), and the short - fiber load increased to 91.3% (+2.4%) [172][177] Output - From January to March, the weekly average polyester output was 1.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [178]