Report Overview - Report Title: Short Fiber and Bottle Chip Weekly Report - Report Date: October 26, 2025 - Report Author: Chen Xinchao, He Xiaoqin, Qian Jiayin Industry Investment Ratings - Short Fiber (PF): Short - term range - bound, medium - term bearish [3] - Bottle Chip (PR): Range - bound with a downward bias [2] Core Views - **Short Fiber**: Cost support is weak, and the market is range - bound. Although upstream oil issues have pushed up crude oil prices, the supply of naphtha remains in excess. The improvement in domestic demand needs to be verified, and there are still uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations [8]. - **Bottle Chip**: Cost support is weak, and the market is range - bound. In the fourth quarter, factory operations are expected to remain around 80%. Demand from October to November is expected to decline quarter - on - quarter, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation in the near term [9]. Summary by Section Short Fiber (PF) - **Supply**: Short - fiber factory operations are maintained, with an average operating rate of 94.3%. Spinning - grade direct - spun polyester staple fiber operations are maintained at 94.5%. In the future, operations are expected to fluctuate in the range of 93% - 95%. Recently, downstream procurement has been relatively active, and factories may have the incentive to slightly increase operations [8]. - **Demand**: There has been a significant amount of positive - feedback restocking in the market, and short - fiber inventories have continued to decline. After the comprehensive cooling, the downstream market has improved, and the terminal has placed additional orders. Both woven grey fabrics and yarns have reduced their inventories, alleviating pressure, and profits have also improved. However, after a round of positive - feedback restocking following the increase in raw material prices, the terminal sentiment has gradually cooled off around the weekend, and the sustainability of the peak season still needs to be observed. The current situation of foreign trade is still not good [8]. - **Valuation**: The current spot premium is 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton, which is neutral. The futures margin is 1000 yuan/ton, and the valuations of the margin and the inter - month spread are basically reasonable, while the basis is relatively high [8]. - **Strategy**: Hold the 01 - 02 calendar spread long position; go long PF and short PR in the 2601 contract [8]. Bottle Chip (PR) - **Supply**: In the fourth quarter, factory operations are expected to remain around 80%. This week, operations have slightly increased to 82%. On the one hand, processing margins have recovered, and on the other hand, it is the off - season for demand. In the future, operations are expected to remain at around 80%, with no strong motivation for significant production cuts or increases. Fuhai is expected to start production in November, increasing the actual supply [9]. - **Demand**: Low - price procurement has still shown significant volume, including purchases by large enterprises and speculative demand. Bottle - chip factory inventories have remained at around 17 days. From October to November, demand is expected to decline quarter - on - quarter. The operations of beverage factories have decreased to around 60% - 70%, and the operations of edible oil and sheet material factories have also decreased. Sea freight rates have declined, and the export volume in subsequent months is generally in line with the seasonality of domestic demand. The export volume from October to November is expected to be in the range of 50 - 550,000 tons. The United States has removed bottle chips from the exemption list, and attention should be paid to the impact of export replacement in subsequent months [9]. - **Valuation**: The current spot processing margin is 500 - 550 yuan/ton, which is relatively high. The processing margins of the November and December futures contracts are 450 - 500 yuan/ton, which are also relatively high but may be difficult to compress due to the weak cost [9]. - **Strategy**: Hold the calendar spread long position; go long TA and short PR in the December contract (enter when the processing margin is around 480 - 500 yuan/ton); go long PF and short PR in the 01 contract [9]. Cost and Profit - **Bottle Chip**: Aggregate costs have risen to around 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton. Bottle - chip processing margins have been passively compressed, with the spot processing margin around 480 - 550 yuan/ton. The export profit, calculated based on the domestic aggregate cost, is approximately 800 - 850 yuan/ton, indicating a relatively high level of export profit [45]. Inventory - **Bottle Chip**: The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories has increased. Domestic polyester bottle - chip factory inventories have decreased to around 17 days. From October to November, inventory accumulation is expected to continue. According to CCF data, the preliminary estimate of social inventory in September was 2.77 million tons, the estimate for October is 3 million tons, and the estimate for November is 3.24 million tons [50][55]. - **Short Fiber**: There has been positive - feedback restocking in the market, and short - fiber inventories have continued to decline. The 1.4D equity inventory is 3.4 days, and the physical inventory is 15 days (a decrease of 0.8 days compared to the previous period) [8]. Device Changes - **Bottle Chip**: Sanfangxiang has slightly increased its operations. A 600,000 - ton polyester bottle - chip device at Huarun's Jiangyin factory has been shut down. The 750,000 - ton device in Yisheng Hainan and the 350,000 - ton device in Yisheng Dalian remain shut down. Fuhai's new 300,000 - ton device is expected to start production in November [56]. Demand - **Bottle Chip**: The operations of beverage enterprises have gradually declined to 50% - 75%. In the sheet material sector, operations in East China are at 50% - 70%, and operations in South China are at 40% - 60%. The average operations of edible oil enterprises are around 50% - 70% [60][61]. - **Short Fiber**: After the comprehensive cooling, the downstream market has improved, and the terminal has placed additional orders. Both woven grey fabrics and yarns have reduced their inventories, alleviating pressure, and profits have also improved. However, the sustainability of the peak season still needs to be observed. The current situation of foreign trade is still not good [8]. Export - **Bottle Chip**: In September 2025, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 593,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%. Among them, the export volume under tariff code 39076910 was 125,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.3%, and the export volume under tariff code 39076110 was 468,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [86].