股债投资组合

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思想挑战,长期投资是不是应该全配置股票?
雪球· 2025-09-05 08:08
Group 1 - The traditional view suggests that individuals should adjust their investment strategy from stocks to bonds as they age, with a focus on capital preservation in retirement [5][6] - This conventional wisdom is challenged by recent research indicating that maintaining a high allocation to stocks throughout one's life may be more beneficial [8][9] - The study found that an optimal investment portfolio could consist of nearly 100% stocks, with a significant portion in international equities, while bonds could be minimized [9][10] Group 2 - The long-term returns on bonds are relatively low and susceptible to inflation, undermining the perceived safety of bonds over extended periods [10] - Surprisingly, a portfolio with nearly all stocks has a lower probability of running out of money in retirement compared to the traditional 60% stocks and 40% bonds strategy, with a bankruptcy probability of only 6.7% [10] - The research emphasizes that the real risk lies not in stock investments but in withdrawal strategies during market downturns, suggesting alternative methods for managing withdrawals to preserve capital [12][13] Group 3 - The study proposes that retirees should consider keeping several years' worth of living expenses in cash or money market funds to avoid selling stocks at a loss during market declines [12] - Dynamic withdrawal strategies, which adjust the amount withdrawn based on current asset values, can help sustain funds over the long term [12][13] - While the research presents a compelling case for a stock-heavy portfolio, it also highlights the importance of having a diversified investment approach to provide flexibility and security in extreme market conditions [14]