市净率百分位 － 大盘价值 一 大盘成长 100% 48.48% 50% 43.20% 0% 2022.1 2016.1 2018.1 2020.1 2026.2.4 一 小盘价值 一 小盘成长 100% ........ 89.09% 71.05% 50% 0% 2016.1 2018.1 2020.1 2022.1 2026.2.4 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 最近市场涨涨跌跌，进入2月份，按照惯例，也更新下，2026年2月初的螺丝钉股市牛熊信号板。 这个信号板有定量和定性两部分。 长图片后面，有详细的牛熊信号板相关数据意义的介绍。 市净率百分位：指当前的市净率数据，处于它历史数据里百分之多少的位置。通常 所处的历史位置越低，估值越便宜。例如百分位为0，表示创下了历史新低。 股债性价比 近5年百分位：41.00% 一 股债性价比 一 中证全指 近10年百分位: 21.76% 6800 3.7 5000 2 35 2.45 3200 1 2026.2.4 2022.1 2019.12 2024.1 注：股债性价比=中证全指盈利收益率÷十年期国债收益率。 通常数值越高,市场越便宜;当该数值>2时, ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market as of November 2025, focusing on the bull-bear signal board, which includes both quantitative and qualitative indicators to assess market conditions and potential investment opportunities [1][8]. Quantitative Indicators - The Buffett Indicator, which measures the total market capitalization of listed companies against GDP, indicates that a value below 80% suggests the market is undervalued [19]. - The price-to-book ratio percentile shows that the current market valuation is at 64.72% for large-cap value stocks and 76.33% for small-cap value stocks, indicating a relatively normal valuation range [3]. - The stock-bond yield ratio is currently at 2.61, suggesting that stocks are undervalued compared to bonds, as values above 2 typically indicate good investment opportunities [24]. - The current financing balance in the A-share market is 24,770 billion yuan, reflecting a relatively low market activity level [25]. - The trading volume percentile is at 91.10%, indicating high trading activity compared to historical levels [25]. Qualitative Indicators - The number of new stock issuances has decreased significantly, and the high rate of new stock failures suggests a bearish market sentiment [31]. - The relationship between the total return of the CSI All Share Index and M2 indicates that the market is currently near a liquidity bottom, which typically correlates with a bearish market [33]. - The scale of old funds has decreased by 50-60% compared to their peak in 2021, indicating a lack of investor confidence in the current market [37]. - The issuance of new funds has reached historical lows, with a notable increase in the issuance of A500 index funds recently, but still far from the levels seen in 2021 [42]. - The proportion of funds under purchase restrictions is currently at 17.39%, which may indicate a cautious market outlook from fund managers [44]. Market Sentiment and Trends - The article notes that the market has experienced two significant low points in early 2024, both marked by a star rating of 5.9, indicating extreme undervaluation [51]. - Following these low points, the market has shown signs of recovery, with the star rating improving to around 4.2 by November 2025, suggesting a gradual return to normal valuation levels [55]. - The article emphasizes the importance of combining both quantitative and qualitative signals to gain a comprehensive understanding of market conditions [50].