证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 11 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3509.68 | 0.48 | | 深证成指 | 10631.13 | 0.47 | | 创业板指 | 2189.58 | 0.22 | | 科创 50 | 979.99 | -0.32 | | 北证 50 | 1408.17 | -0.16 | | 沪深 300 | 4010.02 | 0.47 | A 股市场概览 | 类别 | 总市值 | 流通市 | 市盈率 | 市净率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (亿元) | 值(亿元) | PE | PB | | 上证指数 | 681788 | 529616 | 12.56 | 1.30 | | 深证成指 | 232819 | 191695 | 20.73 | 2.19 | | 创业板指 | 61372 | 48797 | 28.72 | 3.98 | | 科创 50 | 34292 | 22774 | 53.23 | 4.13 | | 北证 50 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing interest of insurance funds in high-dividend bank stocks, particularly in the context of the upcoming dividend distribution period in A-shares, which typically peaks from May to July each year [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 9, 2025, the Dividend ETF State-Owned Enterprises (530880) rose by 0.54%, with constituent stocks such as Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077) increasing by 3.03%, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398) by 2.06%, and Agricultural Bank of China (601288) by 1.80% [1]. - Insurance funds have made 17 significant equity purchases in the first half of the year, with 9 of these targeting bank stocks, indicating a strategic shift towards undervalued, high-dividend assets [1]. Group 2: Dividend Distribution - The Dividend ETF State-Owned Enterprises (530880) announced a dividend of 0.036 yuan per ten shares, with the equity registration date on July 8, 2025, ex-dividend date on July 9, and cash dividend payment date on July 14 [1]. - The fund is designed to potentially distribute dividends monthly, with a maximum of 12 distributions per year, contingent on meeting specific conditions [1]. Group 3: Index and Fee Structure - The Dividend ETF State-Owned Enterprises (530880) tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index, which has a significant representation of low-valuation, high-dividend sectors such as banking, coal, and transportation [1]. - As of June 20, the dividend yield of the Shanghai Stock Exchange State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index was 5.6%, ranking among the highest in its category, with a 10-year price-to-book ratio percentile at 52%, indicating a historical average level [1]. - The comprehensive fee rate of the Dividend ETF State-Owned Enterprises (530880) is noted to be the lowest among similar index tracking products [1].

出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 张贝贝 头图 | AI生图 在利率下行、传统险的利差损风险加大情况下，2220亿保险资金通过长期股票投资试点方式加速涌入资本市场寻求破局（以下简称"险企长线资金入市"）。 注：保险资金长期投资改革试点，指保险公司出资设立私募证券投资基金，主要投向二级市场股票，并长期持有。目前监管部门已批准三批试点，中国人寿 和新华保险作为首批试点机构，规模合计500亿元；第二批获批试点的保险公司有8家，规模合计1120亿元；第三批600亿元的保险资金长期投资试点的机构 正在陆续获批，三批总规模预计达到2220亿元。 随着险企长线资金增加并加速入市，险企投资端的权益类资产可能会增加，而受到利率下行扰动较大的国债、银行存款等资产占比降低，有望带来投资回报 率的提升。 同时，险企权益投资收益率提升后，险企更敢推广浮动收益产品，并可能反向驱动负债端保险产品创新与销售增长，带来业绩走强。 然而分析下来，险企长线资金的加速入市对于保险行业的影响并不是"普惠利好"，反而可能成为加速行业分化的"催化剂"。 详见下文。 利差损危机下的"自救" 随着利率不断下行，保险公司传统险的利差损压力较大（即资产收益无法覆盖 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that insurance capital is expected to increase its allocation to equity assets in the second half of the year, focusing on high dividend and high growth stocks due to the low interest rate environment [1][2] - Insurance capital has actively entered the market through various means such as stake acquisitions and private equity fund establishment, driven by policy support and the need to optimize investment risk factors [1][2] - The "barbell" strategy will be adopted, targeting both high dividend assets for stable returns and high growth assets for excess returns [1][2] Group 2 - In the first half of the year, insurance capital has significantly increased its allocation to high dividend assets, particularly in the banking sector, with 9 out of 17 stake acquisitions being bank stocks [2] - Low valuation and high dividend bank stocks are expected to continue attracting insurance capital, especially as market interest rates decline and companies increase dividends and buybacks [2] - New quality productivity and new consumption sectors are also gaining attention, with a focus on industries supported by national strategies that show strong growth potential despite some companies not yet being profitable [2][3] Group 3 - The shift in consumer demographics towards younger generations and the urbanization rate nearing that of developed countries indicates a transition from real estate consumption to new business model consumption [3] - There is an emphasis on enhancing research capabilities in new fields, with increased resource investment in research teams to identify long-term viable business models and technologies [3]

每经编辑｜吴永久 周二，在关税的消息落地后，A股走出普涨行情，光伏、PCB产业链、英伟达产业链涨幅居前，其中工业富联、宏和科技等多只个股涨停。 消息面上，央视新闻报道，当地时间7日，美国总统特朗普签署行政命令，延长所谓"对等关税"暂缓期，将实施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日。 新华社报道，欧盟委员会发言人奥洛夫·吉尔7日表示，欧盟仍在争取于7月9日前与美国达成一项原则性的双边贸易协议，目前欧盟与美国仍在继续接触。 在每日经济新闻App举办的掘金大赛第65期比赛中，目前比赛正在火热进行中，多位选手跑步入场，抓住了行情机会。 大赛为模拟炒股，模拟资金50万元。第65期比赛的报名时间为7月1日到7月11日，比赛时间为7月1日到7月11日。正收益就获奖，报名就拿福利！周周发奖 金，月月有大奖！ 在每日经济新闻App私人订制的火线快评中，6月6日就提到了PCB的原材料电子布板块，相关个股宏和科技累计上涨77%，区间最大涨幅翻倍。中材科技 累计上涨42%。 参赛福利来了，为便于参赛选手提高投资胜率，只要报名参加掘金大赛，报名成功就能获得每日经济新闻App私人订制的"火线快评"5天（自然日）的免 费阅读权限。此外，每期比赛结 ...

Core Insights - Insurance capital is increasingly favoring high-dividend assets in the Hong Kong stock market, with significant increases in investment ratios and participation levels [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Trends - The investment balance in the Hong Kong market accounts for 51% of the total overseas investment balance of insurance institutions, making it the preferred choice for overseas stock and bond investments [3]. - 63% of institutions plan to increase their investment scale in Hong Kong stocks by 2025, with funds concentrated in the financial, energy, and telecommunications sectors [3]. - Insurance capital has made 19 significant investments this year, involving 15 listed companies, with two-thirds being H-shares, which are characterized by low valuations, high dividend yields, and stable dividends [3]. Group 2: Market Characteristics - H-shares are particularly attractive due to their price discount advantages and tax benefits, as dividends from H-shares held for over 12 months are exempt from corporate income tax [3]. - The Hang Seng AH-share premium index fell nearly 10% in the first half of the year but remained close to 130, indicating that A-shares are approximately 30% more expensive than H-shares [3]. - The internationalization of the Hong Kong stock market allows insurance capital to reduce portfolio volatility through dynamic balance holdings [3]. Group 3: Asset Reallocation - In the context of declining interest rates and the expiration of high-yield assets, insurance capital is under pressure to reallocate assets, favoring stable long-term returns from high-dividend Hong Kong stocks [4]. - Several insurance companies have also increased their positions in high-dividend A-shares in the first quarter of this year [4]. - The new accounting standards implemented in 2023 significantly impact insurance capital investments, leading to increased volatility in profit statements and prompting companies to focus on OCI-type assets to mitigate this volatility [4].

Core Insights - Insurance capital is increasingly focusing on high-dividend assets, particularly in the Hong Kong stock market, as part of their investment strategy [1][2][3] - H-shares are favored due to their lower valuations and tax advantages, with a significant portion of insurance investments directed towards these assets [2][3] - The shift to new accounting standards is influencing insurance companies to prioritize stable dividend-paying assets to mitigate profit volatility [4] Group 1: Investment Trends - Insurance companies have significantly increased their investment in high-dividend assets this year, with Hong Kong stocks being a major focus [1][2] - H-shares represent a large portion of the stocks targeted by insurance capital, with two-thirds of the 15 companies involved in recent stake acquisitions being H-shares [2] - A survey indicates that 63% of insurance institutions plan to increase their investment in Hong Kong stocks by 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong market accounts for 51% of the overseas investment balance of insurance institutions, making it the preferred market for stock and bond investments [1] - The Hang Seng AH Share Premium Index indicates that A-shares are priced approximately 30% higher than H-shares, highlighting the price advantage of H-shares [2] - Insurance companies are also increasing their positions in A-shares with high dividend yields, reflecting a broader strategy to secure stable returns [3] Group 3: Regulatory Impact - The transition to new accounting standards is prompting insurance firms to adjust their investment strategies, focusing on assets that provide stable dividends and long-term returns [4] - The new accounting rules will lead to greater volatility in profit reporting, encouraging a shift towards investments that can help stabilize financial performance [4] - Insurance companies are expected to enhance their focus on high-dividend, low-volatility, and high-return-on-equity assets in response to these regulatory changes [4]

近期，受益于银行股等高股息风格个股的持续上涨，红利类资产普遍表现强势。截至上周五收盘 （7/4），红利低波指数创下基日（05/12/30）以来新高，近五年（2020/7/4-2025/7/4）年化涨幅8.43%， 历史长期表现跑赢同期红利低波100指数（6.34%）与标普港股通低波红利指数（6.14%）。 从近一周（6/30-7/4）资金流向看，红利低波ETF（512890）作为市场首只追踪红利低波指数的ETF，已 成为资金布局高股息资产的焦点之一。Wind数据显示，6月30日至7月4日，红利低波ETF（512890）5个 交易日中4日实现净申购，累计吸引6.99亿元资金，是同期全市场仅有的净流入超6亿元的红利类主题 ETF。 在标的指数"红利+低波"因子强强联合下，红利低波ETF（512890）在过往6个完整年度（2019-2024 年）中均彰显出了较为出色的业绩韧性与抗风险能力，是当前市场仅有的、自成立以来年年实现正收益 的权益类ETF。成份股较高的分红水平或同样进一步赋予红利低波ETF（512890）在低利率+资产荒环 境中对中长期资金的配置吸引力。 没有股票账户的场外投资者，可以关注红利低波ETF（5 ...

黄智华（野鹤山人） 大盘在逐渐深入历史套牢区情况下，如果仅靠银行股来推动，未来即使上行估计也难免较为反复。当 然，市场有着积极变化，深证成指本周四、周五上破去年10月8日和今年3月18日两重要高点所形成的下 降趋势线，或说明深证成指逐渐扭转弱势，市场不少个股活跃度或有所提高。 本周大盘继续走稳，周五银行股继续走强，不少再创出历史新高，带动沪指回升。银行板块上周五一度 杀跌，但为快速的中途调整，本周不少收复失地，甚至创出新高，说明银行板块上升趋势未改。 市场认为，自2024年9月24日以来，货币政策转向"适度宽松"，10年期国债收益率已降至1.6%，1年期国 债收益率跌破1%，市场进入低利率环境，红利资产受到青睐。多家机构表示，以银行股为代表的高股 息资产中仍有优秀且便宜的公司，从目前10年期国债利率来看，这些高股息资产仍有相当吸引力。 今年上半年，南向资金累计净流入港股市场近7300亿港元。随着南向资金持续流入，港股流动性显著改 善，港股与A股的流动性差距迎来趋势性收窄，而作为南向资金核心增配方向之一的港股银行板块，成 为AH溢价率大幅下降的最大推手。 据报道，在港股银行板块上涨的资金中，保险资金无疑是银行股 ...

权益基金发行回暖，在一定程度上展现了基民对A股市场的信心。浙商基金认为，6月A股在政策与外部 扰动中呈现震荡分化，科技成长与防御性板块交替领涨，资金博弈特征显著。短期市场需消化技术性调 整压力，但中长期在政策支持和产业趋势驱动下，结构性机会仍存。可关注业绩确定性强的科技细分领 域(如AI、机器人)、高股息资产及消费修复机会，同时警惕地缘风险和业绩验证压力带来的波动。 FOF基金方面，上半年共有31只FOF基金启动募集，与去年同期相比增长了82.35%。 国盛证券表示，6月以来，市场整体走势强于预期，主要宽基指数更是在月底普遍实现了短期放量突 破，上证指数一度上探年内新高，表明市场依旧具备尝试突破的潜力，背后更多反映出在地缘交易钝化 后，市场更加期待外部降息前移与内部政策发力的协同。尽管关税、降息、政策和半年报四大因素面临 叠加验证，但当资金合力明显倾向于定价乐观叙事时，突破本身依旧有交易的价值，所以月度级别可以 考虑积极参与突破，博取潜在弹性，但需要保持交易思维以应对四大因素的不确定性。 债券型基金、混合型基金、QDII基金发行同比出现下降。上半年共有131只债券型基金开启募集，占比 为19.26%。其中，中 ...