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这一次,和2020年的牛市有啥区别?
表舅是养基大户· 2025-07-22 13:31
Market Sentiment - The market sentiment remains strong, with coal sector stocks surging over 6% following news of coal inspections, leading to a significant increase in trading volume [1][3] - The A-share index is approaching 3600 points, while the Wind All A index is targeting 5600 points, indicating a positive feedback loop from breaking key resistance levels [1][3] Trading Volume and Financing - A-share trading volume exceeded 1.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 200 billion from the previous day, reflecting heightened market activity [3] - Net financing purchases reached 15.4 billion yuan, marking a new high since May 6, with total financing balances also surpassing 1.9 trillion yuan, indicating a strong risk appetite among investors [3] Investor Participation - Over 30% of existing investors participated in a recent investment advisory session, showcasing a significant increase in investor engagement [4] Market Reaction to News - The market's response to news has evolved, with bad news now being perceived as an opportunity to buy, contrasting with previous periods where the absence of good news was seen negatively [5][6] Comparison of Market Cycles - The current market cycle differs fundamentally from the bull market around 2020, which was driven by low U.S. interest rates and foreign capital inflow, while the current cycle is characterized by domestic low interest rates and structural market dynamics [8] Foreign Investment Trends - In the first half of the year, foreign capital net increased by 10.1 billion USD in domestic stocks and funds, indicating a turning point compared to previous years of net selling [12] - Notably, China Life Group's equity market investment exceeded 90 billion yuan in the same period, surpassing the total foreign investment, highlighting the influence of domestic institutional investors [13] H-Shares and A-Shares Dynamics - Southbound capital has significantly increased, with net purchases of Hong Kong stocks nearing last year's total, suggesting a shift in valuation dynamics between H-shares and A-shares [15] Bond Market Insights - The bond market is experiencing continued accumulation, with long-term interest rates under pressure due to strong commodity performance [18] IPO Developments - There are expectations for H-shares to return to A-shares, with announcements indicating potential listings of companies from the Greater Bay Area on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [23] Currency Trends - The foreign exchange market shows a reversal, with a significant surplus in June, indicating a shift in corporate behavior towards selling USD for RMB, which could positively impact both stock and bond markets [26][28]