胰岛素海外商业化
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甘李药业:集采续约量价齐升,胰岛素出海进度领跑行业-20250302
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-03-02 03:00
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 54.95 RMB, based on a 30x PE valuation for 2025, leading to a target market capitalization of 330 billion RMB [4]. Core Views - The company has been a leader in the insulin market for nearly 20 years, being the first domestic company to industrialize the production of third-generation insulin. It holds a 37% share of the total volume of third-generation insulin in the recent procurement, surpassing Novo Nordisk [1]. - Following the recent procurement renewal, the industry is entering a new cycle with both volume and price increases, indicating a reversal of the company's performance bottom. The gross margin is expected to reach 84% in 2025 [2]. - The company is advancing its international commercialization efforts, with a leading position in the industry. It has received FDA and EMA acceptance for its insulin products, indicating strong potential for revenue growth from overseas markets [3]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The company has a strong foothold in the insulin market, being the first to produce third-generation insulin in China. Its products cover long-acting, rapid-acting, and premixed insulin segments [1]. Industry Cycle - The recent procurement renewal has led to a price increase of 5-48% for the company's insulin products, with a significant 34% increase for its core product, glargine insulin. The company secured a procurement volume of 46.86 million units, a 32.6% increase from the last procurement [2]. International Commercialization - The company has established a comprehensive international network and is actively expanding its presence in various global markets. It has successfully registered its products in several countries, enhancing its international sales capabilities [3][24]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 6.41 billion, 11.01 billion, and 15.12 billion RMB from 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 88.6%, 71.7%, and 37.4% respectively [4][6].