Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The rebound momentum of crude oil has weakened, and there is differentiation within the energy - chemical sector. The short - term rise of crude oil is driven by geopolitical factors, while the medium - term trend is downward due to fundamental supply - demand surplus. For other energy - chemical products, their prices are mainly affected by their own supply - demand fundamentals, with some facing significant downward pressure [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: The short - term rise is driven by the US sanctions on Russian oil companies, but the actual impact is expected to be limited. The medium - term logic is the downward pressure from the supply - demand surplus. The market should pay attention to the time when the geopolitical sentiment cools down and the market switches back to the fundamental logic [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The intraday rebound momentum has weakened, and the short - term support is at the 463 level. - **Strategy**: Wait for the opportunity to cover short positions after breaking the short - term support [2]. (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The rebound of crude oil has little impact on benzene ethylene. Its own supply - demand logic dominates the market, with high pressure on both the current and expected fundamentals. The inventory is at a record high, and there is a risk of price collapse [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday performance is weak, and the short - term pressure is at the 6630 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [8]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: Tire demand is stable, but the inventory pressure and high raw material prices lead to low stocking willingness. The supply is expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at the 15450 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions, with the stop - profit reference at the 15450 level [10]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The supply pressure of butadiene rubber is high, and the inventory is increasing. The cost of butadiene also has high pressure. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at the 11300 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions, with the stop - profit reference at the 11300 level [13]. (5) PX - **Logic**: The profit is high, the supply is sufficient, and the demand is stable. It mainly follows the cost drive of crude oil. It is affected by the notice of the polyester industry development symposium. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The support is at the 6505 level. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [18]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It mainly follows the cost drive of crude oil and is affected by the notice of the polyester industry development symposium. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The short - term support is at the 4500 level. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [23]. (7) PP - **Logic**: The supply pressure is high, the demand recovery is limited, and there is downward pressure on the cost side. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at the 6740 level, and there is a signal to try short positions. - **Strategy**: There is an opportunity to try short positions, with the stop - loss reference at the 6740 level [27]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: Due to seasonal factors, there is a certain long - making logic for the 01 contract in the future, but the short - term long - making time has not arrived. The domestic supply and demand have weakened, and the port inventory is at a historical high. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at the 2320 level. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions cautiously, with the final stop - profit at the 2320 level. Consider using methanol as a long - position allocation after breaking through the pressure [31]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: The supply is at a high level, the domestic real - estate demand has collapsed, and the social inventory has reached a historical high, with no upward driving force. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at the 4800 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [34]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The supply is at a high level, the inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand is turning weak. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. The short - term support is at the 4065 level. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [35]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: The supply pressure has increased, the downstream demand is weak, and there is a cost - collapse logic due to the decline of crude oil. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. The short - term support is at the 6955 level. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [38]. (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory situation continues to increase, the demand for glass is unlikely to improve significantly, and the downward driving force of the fundamentals remains unchanged. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at the 1260 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [40]. (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The supply pressure has increased, the downstream demand growth is limited, and the supply - demand driving force is weak. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at the 2470 level. - **Strategy**: Wait and see after taking profit before the holiday [42].