Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The rebound momentum of crude oil has weakened, and there is differentiation within the energy - chemical sector. The short - term rise of crude oil is driven by geopolitical factors, while the medium - term trend is downward due to fundamental supply - demand surplus. For other energy - chemical products, their prices are mainly affected by their own supply - demand fundamentals, with some facing significant downward pressure [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: The short - term rise is driven by the US sanctions on Russian oil companies, but the actual impact is expected to be limited. The medium - term logic is the downward pressure from the supply - demand surplus. The market should pay attention to the time when the geopolitical sentiment cools down and the market switches back to the fundamental logic [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The intraday rebound momentum has weakened, and the short - term support is at the 463 level. - **Strategy**: Wait for the opportunity to cover short positions after breaking the short - term support [2]. (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The rebound of crude oil has little impact on benzene ethylene. Its own supply - demand logic dominates the market, with high pressure on both the current and expected fundamentals. The inventory is at a record high, and there is a risk of price collapse [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday performance is weak, and the short - term pressure is at the 6630 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [8]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: Tire demand is stable, but the inventory pressure and high raw material prices lead to low stocking willingness. The supply is expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at the 15450 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions, with the stop - profit reference at the 15450 level [10]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The supply pressure of butadiene rubber is high, and the inventory is increasing. The cost of butadiene also has high pressure. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at the 11300 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions, with the stop - profit reference at the 11300 level [13]. (5) PX - **Logic**: The profit is high, the supply is sufficient, and the demand is stable. It mainly follows the cost drive of crude oil. It is affected by the notice of the polyester industry development symposium. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The support is at the 6505 level. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [18]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It mainly follows the cost drive of crude oil and is affected by the notice of the polyester industry development symposium. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The short - term support is at the 4500 level. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [23]. (7) PP - **Logic**: The supply pressure is high, the demand recovery is limited, and there is downward pressure on the cost side. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at the 6740 level, and there is a signal to try short positions. - **Strategy**: There is an opportunity to try short positions, with the stop - loss reference at the 6740 level [27]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: Due to seasonal factors, there is a certain long - making logic for the 01 contract in the future, but the short - term long - making time has not arrived. The domestic supply and demand have weakened, and the port inventory is at a historical high. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at the 2320 level. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions cautiously, with the final stop - profit at the 2320 level. Consider using methanol as a long - position allocation after breaking through the pressure [31]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: The supply is at a high level, the domestic real - estate demand has collapsed, and the social inventory has reached a historical high, with no upward driving force. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at the 4800 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [34]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The supply is at a high level, the inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand is turning weak. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. The short - term support is at the 4065 level. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [35]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: The supply pressure has increased, the downstream demand is weak, and there is a cost - collapse logic due to the decline of crude oil. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. The short - term support is at the 6955 level. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [38]. (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory situation continues to increase, the demand for glass is unlikely to improve significantly, and the downward driving force of the fundamentals remains unchanged. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at the 1260 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [40]. (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The supply pressure has increased, the downstream demand growth is limited, and the supply - demand driving force is weak. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at the 2470 level. - **Strategy**: Wait and see after taking profit before the holiday [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The chemical sector performed poorly in September, with most products falling by around 4%. The overall decline indicates worsening supply - demand contradictions. After the National Day holiday, the sector remained in a downward trend, especially upstream raw material prices, mainly due to Trump's tariff threats. Oil price stability will be crucial in curbing the downward trend [2][10]. - The overall inventory of chemical products is high, with EB, urea, soda ash, propylene, and methanol having particularly high inventory levels. EB's inventory worsened, with the inventory percentile rising from 206% in August to 313% in September. Soda ash, urea, and bottle chips showed marginal inventory improvements. However, due to the high overall inventory, the impact on prices is limited. Only a decrease in supply can drive inventory back to normal levels [2][10]. - Most chemical products have low profit margins, with only coal - based chemicals maintaining relatively high profits due to falling coal prices. Profit repair usually lags behind inventory repair. In the current situation of tariff - related raw material price collapses, profit repair, especially for oil - based chemicals, may occur. If profit repair happens before inventory regression, it may exacerbate supply - demand contradictions [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 9 - Month Chemical Sector Market Trend Analysis - In September, except for glass, all other chemical products in the sector declined, with most falling by about 4%. After the National Day, the sector continued to decline, and upstream raw material prices dropped significantly due to tariff threats. Oil price stability is important for curbing the decline [2][10]. - High inventory levels are widespread, with some products' inventory worsening and others improving marginally. Only supply reduction can drive inventory back to normal [2][10]. - Most products have low profit margins, and coal - based chemicals have high profits due to coal price drops. Profit repair is slower than inventory repair, and early profit repair may worsen supply - demand issues [11]. 3.2 Chemical Monthly Spread Arbitrage Focus - **Urea**: The 2601 - 2605 reverse - spread strategy is recommended to stop - profit and exit. The strategy has performed well, with the 1 - 5 spread weakening to - 70 to - 80 yuan/ton. Factors such as potential demand release, export expectation changes, and valuation suggest it's time to consider exiting [20][21]. - **PX**: The 11 - 1 monthly positive - spread strategy is recommended to be maintained. Although PTA maintenance in September affected the near - month PX balance, the impact has been digested. With expected PTA load recovery and downstream inventory reduction, the positive - spread structure is likely to continue [24]. 3.3 Chemical Cross - Variety Arbitrage Focus - **Glass - Soda Ash**: The strategy of going long FG2601 and short SA2601 is recommended to continue. Reasons include potential real - estate policy support for glass, high soda ash supply, and weakening photovoltaic glass demand, which will negatively impact soda ash demand [27]. - **Short - Fiber - Bottle Chip**: The strategy of widening the PF - PR spread on dips is recommended to continue. The short - fiber supply has limited growth potential, while the bottle - chip supply may face pressure. Short - fiber is in a consumption season, and the tariff - related spread narrowing is expected to reverse [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, supply changes are expected to be the dominant factor for prices, and demand lacks significant growth drivers. OPEC+ will maintain a 137,000 barrels per day production increase in November, which is lower than market expectations. Geopolitical risk premiums have eased, and long - term oil prices are expected to be under pressure, with Brent oil prices likely to oscillate between $60 - 75 per barrel [4]. - For PX & PTA, the PX device operating rate remains high, but downstream maintenance increases and the supply - demand balance weakens. PTA processing margins have dropped, and it is expected to follow cost fluctuations. [4] - For MEG, after the holiday, the operating rate and port inventory have increased, and the supply - demand pattern has shifted to inventory accumulation. The market is expected to be weak in the short term [5]. - For BZ & EB, the pure benzene operating rate has slightly declined but remains high. The demand for downstream products is expected to recover, but the market is affected by new device launches. Short - term prices are expected to follow the weak oscillation of crude oil. The supply of styrene is expected to increase, and with high inventories and poor terminal demand, it is expected to be in a weak oscillation [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply changes are expected to dominate prices, and demand lacks significant growth drivers. OPEC+ will maintain a 137,000 barrels per day production increase in November, lower than market expectations. Geopolitical risk premiums have eased, and long - term oil prices are expected to be under pressure, with Brent oil prices likely to oscillate between $60 - 75 per barrel [4]. PX & PTA - PX device operating rate remains high, but downstream maintenance increases and the supply - demand balance weakens. PXN is expected to be weak. PTA device changes are frequent, processing margins have dropped to around 165 yuan/ton, and it is expected to follow cost fluctuations [4]. - Domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization is 88.23%, up 0.34% from last week. Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization is 76.97% (+0.19%). PX - naphtha spread remains around $220 per ton. Some PX devices have restarted or are under maintenance. PXN is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the commissioning time of a 3 million - ton new capacity in the fourth quarter [8]. - PTA spot price is 4,500 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan/ton from last week. The futures basis of the main contract is - 63 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from last week. Weekly average capacity utilization is 77.84%, up 0.35% from last week. After new device commissioning in October, supply pressure remains, and it is expected to follow cost fluctuations [14]. MEG - After the holiday, the MEG operating rate has recovered, and East China port inventory has significantly increased. The supply - demand pattern has shifted to inventory accumulation, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term [5]. - The market price of ethylene glycol this week is 4,214 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton from last week. The total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization is 70.01%, up 3.27% from last week. The port inventory has increased to 443,100 tons, up 42,800 tons from last week. The futures price has declined, and the market is weak [19]. BZ & EB - The pure benzene operating rate has slightly declined to 78.35% but remains high. The demand for downstream products is expected to recover, but the market is affected by new device launches. Short - term prices are expected to follow the weak oscillation of crude oil. The supply of styrene is expected to increase, and with high inventories and poor terminal demand, it is expected to be in a weak oscillation [5]. - This week, the pure benzene operating rate is 79.29%, up 0.55% from last week; the styrene operating rate is 71.24%, down 2.37% from last week. The downstream S - product comprehensive operating rate is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. The short - term fundamentals have limited improvement, and it is expected to be in a weak oscillation [32]. Polyester Industry - This week, the average weekly capacity utilization of the domestic polyester industry is 87.8%, up 0.89% from last week. The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 64.06%, up 0.94% from the previous period. The average number of terminal weaving order days is 14.29 days, down 1.71 days from last week. Factory inventories have increased, and the industry is under pressure [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, including their fundamental logic, technical analysis, and trading strategies. Most products show a bearish or neutral outlook, with suggestions mainly to hold short positions or wait and see. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Logic: OPEC+ started the second - phase 165,000 barrels/day复产 plan, with an expected large surplus after the first - phase复产. The second - phase复产 combined with the demand shift from peak to off - season will increase supply and decrease demand. South American situation is tense but not significantly worsened, and the fundamental drive is downward [2][3]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily chart, short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's rebound is for testing the short - term pressure at 489 (11 contract) [3]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 489 [3]. Styrene (EB) - Logic: Weekly开工 increased slightly but there are unplanned overhauls. Downstream profits are poor, ABS and EPS开工 decreased, and port inventory continued to accumulate. After the autumn overhaul peak, new device commissioning in September - October will bring supply pressure, and the supply - demand pattern is weak [6]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term downward structure on the hourly chart is being tested. Today's intraday is oscillating, and it's a normal repair after the previous sharp drop. Standing above the short - term pressure of 7040 on the 10 - contract challenges the hourly downward structure [6]. - Strategy: Cautiously hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle, with a final take - profit at 7180 [6]. Rubber - Logic: Seasonal factors are strong, but there is no weather speculation on the supply side this year. Only short - term typhoons and rainy seasons make raw material prices temporarily strong. Imports increased in August. On the demand side, semi - steel tire开工 dropped significantly, while full - steel tire开工 remained high. The current fundamentals are neutral [9]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating structure on the daily chart, upward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating. After the previous technical breakthrough, the hourly level is considered an upward structure, with short - term support at 15880 [9]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [9]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand of styrene - butadiene rubber. Supply - side device overhauls led to a drop in开工 and output, and downstream semi - steel tire inventory also decreased. The main contradiction lies in the cost side of butadiene. With the arrival of cargo ships, port inventory has increased significantly, and the supply pressure will gradually materialize in the medium - term [13]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily chart, waiting for the short - term trend structure to be established on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the hourly line closed at the lower edge of the oscillation range. Wait for the night session to verify the downward breakthrough [13]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the 15 - minute small cycle, with a take - profit reference of 11960 on the 15 - minute level [13]. PX - Logic: PX profit recovery and the end of the overhaul peak led to an increase in开工. The overall开工 of PTA decreased, and the previous destocking of PX slowed down. The short - term fundamentals weakened, and more attention should be paid to the cost - end impact of crude oil [16][19]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term downward structure on the hourly chart is being tested. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the hourly cycle's downward trend has not reversed. Pay attention to the 15 - minute upper - edge pressure at 6770 [19]. - Strategy: Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle [19]. PTA - Logic: It lacks its own driving force, and attention should be paid to the cost - end collapse logic of crude oil [20]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday oscillation did not change the downward structure, with the short - term pressure at 4700 [20]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a take - profit reference of 4700 [20]. PP - Logic: Supply - side开工 increased, and new devices will be put into operation in August - September. Demand entered the peak season, and the supply - demand pressure is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the cost - end collapse logic [23]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the short - term pressure at 7090 is far. Pay attention to the 15 - minute short - cycle pressure at 6990, and partial take - profit can be done if it breaks through [23]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [23]. Methanol - Logic: Domestic and overseas methanol开工 remained high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate to a five - year high in September. Downstream demand weakened, and the short - term pressure is huge [27]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward/oscillating on the daily chart, short - term downward on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, with short - term pressure at 2435 [27]. - Strategy: Cautiously hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle, with the hourly line 2435 as the final take - profit [27]. PVC - Logic: Previous overhauls ended,开工 remained at a high of 75%. The strong comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali makes it difficult to reduce PVC supply. Inventory accumulated to the highest level in the same period, and demand is hard to improve before the real estate bottoms out [30]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term upward structure on the daily chart, short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the downward structure remains unchanged after a rebound. The short - term pressure is at 4965 [31][32]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [32]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Port inventory is at a multi - year low, making its fundamentals relatively strong compared to other energy and chemical products. However, with the increase in domestic开工, it is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle. Short - term is strong, but medium - term is bearish [34]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily chart, short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday oscillation did not change the downward structure, with short - term pressure at 4375 [34]. - Strategy: Convert 15 - minute short positions to hourly positions, with a stop - loss reference of 4375 [34]. Plastic - Logic: PE开工 remained stable, and the demand improvement in the peak season is slow. The fundamental driving force is average [37]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily chart, short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the short - term pressure at 7365 is far. First, pay attention to the 15 - minute small - cycle pressure at 7305 [37]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the 15 - minute level, with a stop - loss reference of 7305 [37]. Soda Ash - Logic: After the anti - involution speculation ended, the glass - soda ash with the greatest supply - demand pressure entered the spot - futures regression logic before delivery. The anti - involution had no real impact on soda ash supply, and the over - capacity trend continued. High output and high inventory pressure increased since August, and the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [40]. - Technical Analysis: Downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday oscillation did not change the downward structure, with short - term pressure at 1320 [40]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [40]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Last week, supply - side output and开工 decreased due to autumn overhauls and transportation restrictions in Shandong during the parade. After the parade, the supply - side speculation may end. Demand - side exports are at a high level but with falling profits. Domestic non - aluminum demand increased in the early peak season, and alumina demand remained high. Overall, supply and demand are both strong, but supply pressure is greater, and the inventory is at a five - year high [42]. - Technical Analysis: Downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday oscillation did not change the downward structure, with short - term pressure at 2625 [42]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a take - profit reference of 2625 [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industry products, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector, suggesting different approaches such as buying, selling, or holding based on the specific market conditions of each commodity [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Prices are in high - level oscillation. China's central bank has increased gold holdings for 8 consecutive months. Suggest going long on gold due to the unchanged de - dollarization logic [1]. - **Silver**: It shows a rebound with good market sales recently. Long - term industrial silver demand is downward, so consider long - term short positions or going long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Prices oscillated. Trump's tariff increase affected the market. It is recommended to wait for a full adjustment and then buy at low prices [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to oscillate. It is advised to wait and see due to macro uncertainties and a consumption off - season [2]. - **Alumina**: Prices may be strong in the short term. It is recommended to buy at low prices or purchase call options [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term market sentiment is strong with high unilateral risks. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is recommended to wait and see due to expected marginal improvement and industrial information disturbances [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar Steel**: Supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is recommended to wait and see and try a reverse spread [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply and demand are neutral. It is recommended to wait and see and layout long positions on the far - month coil - ore ratio [4][5]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is relatively loose with improving fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term US soybeans are in a range - bound oscillation. Domestic soybeans follow international cost - side trends [6]. - **Corn**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate within a range due to reduced surplus grain and wheat substitution [6]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract is expected to be weak and oscillate. It is recommended to short in the futures market, sell call options, or lock in prices for end - users [6]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [7]. - **Palm Oil**: It is expected to be strong in the short term with wide - range oscillations. Pay attention to production areas and bio - diesel policies [7]. - **Eggs**: Futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate due to high supply and cost support [7]. - **Pigs**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate and adjust due to increasing supply and weakening demand [7]. - **Apples**: It is recommended to wait and see, and the market is affected by weather [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Short - term supply and demand improve. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long term [8][9]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to wait and see after gradually closing short positions [9]. - **PTA**: It is recommended to go long on PX, do a positive spread on PTA, and short processing fees in the long term [9]. - **Glass**: Fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **PP**: The short - term trend is weak and oscillating. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long term [9][10]. - **MEG**: It is expected to be weak. It is recommended to short at high prices [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The long - term trend is bearish. It is recommended to short at high prices and pay attention to inventory accumulation [10]. - **Styrene**: The short - term trend is weak and oscillating. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long term [10]. - **Soda Ash**: Fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to short at high prices [10][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The chemical industry as a whole fluctuated significantly in June, following the sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices. The inventory, valuation, production, and apparent demand of chemical products showed mixed trends. There are potential arbitrage opportunities in several cross - variety combinations [2][10][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 6 - Month Chemical Sector Market Trend Analysis - **Energy Price Fluctuations**: In June, affected by the Israel - Iran conflict, international crude oil prices fluctuated violently, rising from $65 per barrel to nearly $80 per barrel and then dropping to $67 per barrel. The domestic thermal coal price stabilized after a continuous decline [2][10]. - **Inventory Situation**: In June, chemical inventory showed mixed changes. PTA, caustic soda, PVC, staple fiber, and EG had obvious destocking, while bottle chips and urea had relatively obvious inventory accumulation [2][15]. - **Valuation Changes**: In June, the valuation of the chemical industry changed little. EB and PX had relatively obvious valuation expansion, mainly benefiting from the sharp fluctuations in crude oil [2][15]. - **Production Volume**: In June, the chemical production volume showed mixed changes month - on - month. PX and EB were worthy of attention. Their production volume continued to expand due to profit repair. However, the space for further growth of PX production volume is limited, while EB is expected to continue growing [15]. - **Apparent Demand**: In the first five months, the apparent demand of most chemical products showed a differentiated trend. The apparent demand of glass, soda ash, and PVC had relatively obvious negative growth, while that of EB, MEG, urea, and PE showed a significant growth trend [2][15]. 3.2 Chemical Cross - Variety Arbitrage Concerns - **Glass - Soda Ash 09 Arbitrage**: Photovoltaic glass production cuts are underway, which will put pressure on the subsequent demand for soda ash. Glass, with obviously reduced supply and a continuously high basis, may be relatively resistant to decline. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on glass and short on soda ash [3][41]. - **Bottle Chips - PTA - Ethylene Glycol Cross - Variety Arbitrage**: The self - disciplined production cuts in the bottle chip industry are underway. Since it is unsustainable for the long - term processing fee to be lower than the enterprise's cash flow, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing fee at low prices [3][26]. - **PX - BZ Cross - Variety Arbitrage**: Under high imports, the supply and demand of pure benzene are barely balanced, but PX is expected to continue significant destocking in the second half of the year. If PXN continues to strengthen, it may lead to a passive increase in pure benzene production, thus putting pressure on pure benzene. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on PX and short on BZ [3][32][34].

Core Viewpoint - The polyolefin and styrene futures markets are experiencing weak fluctuations, influenced by supply-demand dynamics and seasonal demand trends [1] Polyolefin Market Summary - Polyolefin futures are showing a weak downward trend, with LLDPE09 contract closing at 7249 CNY/ton, down 0.51%, and PP09 contract at 7044 CNY/ton, down 0.68% [1] - The domestic LLDPE market price ranges from 7200 to 7750 CNY/ton, while PP market prices in different regions are 7020-7150 CNY/ton in North China, 7050-7200 CNY/ton in East China, and 7080-7220 CNY/ton in South China [1] - Supply is tightening due to increased maintenance, with PE operating rate at 72.45%, down 7.32% week-on-week, and PP operating rate at 79.26%, down 2.52% week-on-week [1] - Demand is weak due to seasonal factors, with varying operating rates across industries [1] - Inventory levels show an increase in oil inventory to 755,000 tons, up 35,000 tons week-on-week, while PE trade inventory decreased by 14,750 tons and PP social trade inventory decreased by 3,400 tons [1] - OPEC+ plans to increase production, negatively impacting oil prices, leading to a supply-demand imbalance in the polyolefin market [1] - Suggested trading strategy includes light short positions within specified price ranges for LLDPE and PP [1] Styrene Market Summary - Styrene futures are also experiencing weak fluctuations, with EB08 contract closing at 7275 CNY/ton, down 0.42%, and an increase in open interest by 6,038 contracts [1] - Spot prices for styrene are declining, with East China market at 7675 CNY/ton and South China market at 7775 CNY/ton [1] - Supply is expected to recover as facilities restart, with a weekly operating rate of 80.29%, up 1.39% week-on-week [1] - Demand is entering a seasonal downturn, with slight adjustments in operating rates for PS, EPS, and ABS [1] - Inventory levels for styrene at East China ports reached 90,500 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 16,500 tons, and an estimated 30,000 tons scheduled for arrival next week [1] - The market logic indicates a supply recovery with general downstream demand, leading to a loose supply-demand balance that pressures prices [1] - Suggested trading strategy includes light short positions on price rallies, with specific support and resistance levels for the main futures contracts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rebound in the commodity market following the Geneva joint statement between China and the U.S., driven by demand recovery expectations and supply contractions in certain products [1]. Group 1: Demand Marginal Tracking - The demand increase in the 90-day tariff suspension period is attributed to the shipment of previously delayed orders and U.S. companies' potential actions to "rush imports and transshipments" [2]. - The recent rise in U.S. shipping prices indicates an increase in orders, which will sustain strong demand in the near term [2]. - For complex goods, the delivery process may not see significant growth in demand during the tariff suspension, while shorter delivery cycle products like textiles and toys may show increased purchasing by U.S. companies [4][5]. Group 2: Profit and Supply Decision Adjustments - Short-term supply changes have a greater impact on price elasticity, with maintenance and operational issues in PX and PTA providing upward momentum for chemical products [9]. - The actual pace of production recovery is constrained by large manufacturers' maintenance plans and strategic supply adjustments, which create price support independent of demand [10]. - Despite potential for rapid production increases in the upstream supply chain, the lack of significant demand growth and previous low-profit periods may limit the willingness of leading manufacturers to increase output [13]. Group 3: Trade Policy Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy remains a significant risk, with a potential increase in tariffs by 54% if no agreement is reached within 90 days [16]. - The U.S. fiscal issues may necessitate a focus on revenue generation and spending cuts, complicating trade negotiations and potentially leading to higher retail prices that suppress consumer demand [16]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments in response to economic conditions may also impact inflation expectations and commodity prices [17]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Precious metals may experience short-term price corrections due to tariff and geopolitical tensions but are expected to return to their roles as a store of value in the medium term [23]. - Non-ferrous metals may face short-term demand limitations due to U.S. procurement decisions during the tariff suspension, but medium-term trends will be influenced by Federal Reserve policies [23]. - The energy sector faces supply and demand pressures, with OPEC's production increases and limited demand support affecting price stability [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, for individual commodities, the mid - term and short - term structures are as follows: - Crude oil: Mid - term and short - term both are bearish [1] - EB: Mid - term bearish, short - term bullish [1] - PX: Mid - term bearish, short - term bullish [1] - PTA: Mid - term bearish, short - term bullish [1] - PP: Mid - term bearish, short - term switching for verification [1] - Urea: Mid - term neutral (sideways), short - term bullish [1] - Methanol: Mid - term bearish, short - term bullish [1] - Rubber: Mid - term bearish, short - term sideways [1] - Caustic soda: Mid - term bearish, short - term bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol (EG): Mid - term bearish, short - term bullish [1] - Plastic: Mid - term bearish, short - term bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The weakening of the Iranian geopolitical situation has led to a continued decline in crude oil prices. The mid - term downward trend of crude oil is difficult to reverse due to the expected mid - term surplus caused by OPEC+ accelerating production increases, and short - term downward drivers include the significant weakening of potential geopolitical bullish factors and the expected increase in Iranian crude oil supply after the lifting of sanctions [1]. - For other commodities, short - term bullish factors are often related to macro - sentiment relief, downstream demand expectations, or temporary supply disruptions, but most face the pressure of the sharp decline in the cost - end crude oil price after the release of short - term sentiment [1][6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude oil - Logic: OPEC+ accelerating production increases leads to a mid - term surplus expectation, making the mid - term downward trend difficult to reverse. In the short term, the potential geopolitical bullish factors have significantly weakened, and the increase in Iranian crude oil supply after the lifting of sanctions is a short - term downward driver [1]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is bearish, and the hourly - level short - term structure is also bearish. Today, it increased positions and declined, continuing the downward path. The short - term resistance above is around 465. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference at 465 [1][2]. Benzene ethylene (EB) - Logic: The rebound of the early - week disk was driven by the relief of macro - sentiment, the expected recovery of downstream export demand, and the Hengli plant failure. However, the supply will return to normal, and it will face the pressure of the sharp decline in the cost - end crude oil price after the release of short - term sentiment [6]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is bullish. Today, it tested the short - term support at 7515 after a decline. Whether it breaks through effectively is unclear, and it needs to wait for one or two more hourly lines for confirmation. The strategy is to wait for a short - selling opportunity on the rebound after breaking the support or try when it effectively breaks down and is not a long - negative line [6]. PX - Logic: The relief of macro - sentiment, the expected new round of "export rush" in the downstream, and the continuous de - stocking of PX and PTA have promoted the valuation repair and rebound. However, the pressure of the sharp decline in the cost - end crude oil price will gradually appear after the release of short - term sentiment [7]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is bullish. It oscillated within the day today, and the short - term support still refers to the low point on May 13. The strategy is to wait for a short - selling opportunity on the rebound after breaking the support [9]. PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the relief of macro - sentiment, the expected new round of "export rush" in the downstream, and the continuous de - stocking of PX and PTA have promoted the valuation repair and rebound. But it will face the pressure of the sharp decline in the cost - end crude oil price after the release of short - term sentiment [10]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is bullish. It oscillated within the day today, and the short - term support still refers to the low point on May 13. The strategy is to wait for a short - selling opportunity on the rebound after breaking the support [12]. PP - Logic: The low inventory this week, the short - term shutdown of Iranian plants, and the short - term sentiment of Sino - US relaxation stimulated the rebound. However, the sustainability of the rebound is questionable as the short - term sentiment fades and import pressure rises [13]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level short - term upward structure may end. Today, it broke below the non - standard short - term support at 7135. The strategy is to look for a short - selling opportunity when the rebound fails to break through 7155 and forms a reversal pattern [15]. Urea - Logic: The news of opening up exports has been confirmed, but the total export volume will not exceed that in 2023. After the bullish factors are digested, the supply side has a strong expectation of increase due to sufficient profits. The upward space of this round of increase driven by export news is limited [16]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is bullish. It oscillated within the day today, and the short - term support below still focuses on the low point on May 8. The position has decreased at the recent high, and the trading volume has weakened, which needs to be tracked. The strategy is to wait and see for now [16]. Methanol - Logic: Similar to PP, the low inventory this week, the short - term shutdown of Iranian plants, and the short - term sentiment of Sino - US relaxation stimulated the rebound. However, the sustainability of the rebound is questionable as the short - term sentiment fades and import pressure rises [19]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level upward structure. It decreased positions and declined today. The short - term support still refers to 2330. The trading volume has weakened at the recent high, and the short - term upward trend is difficult to sustain. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle and look for a short - selling opportunity after the breakdown [19]. Rubber - Logic: The short - term bullish sentiment of Sino - US relaxation has basically been digested. The tire enterprise operating rate has dropped significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. Although Thailand has postponed the start of tapping, the actual implementation may not be comprehensive, and the supply increase expectation is strong under normal weather conditions. It is still an expectation of weak supply and demand [23]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is bearish, and the hourly - level short - term structure is sideways. The trading volume is insufficient at the upper edge of the oscillation range recently, and it is difficult to break through. The upper resistance still refers to the high point on April 8. It is still in a narrow - range oscillation to repair the oversold situation. The strategy is to wait and see for now [23]. Caustic soda - Logic: Low profit, high operating rate, non - aluminum off - season, and the expected recovery of alumina demand after restart. The short - term contradiction is not clear [24]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is bearish, and the hourly - level short - term structure is bullish. It decreased positions and declined today, and there are concerns in terms of trading volume. The short - term support below is around 2515. The strategy is to wait and see [24]. Ethylene glycol (EG) - Logic: The short - term bullish sentiment of Sino - US relaxation has basically been digested, the sentiment has weakened, and the upward space for further rebound is limited [26]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is bearish, and the hourly - level short - term structure is bullish. The short - term support below refers to 4315. The strategy is to wait and see due to the divergence between the mid - term and short - term trends [26]. Plastic - Technical analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is bearish, and the hourly - level short - term structure is bullish. It decreased positions and declined today, and the short - term support below refers to 7100. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [30].

Core Viewpoint - The overall supply and demand for polyolefins is weak, leading to price pressure, while the cost side shows slight support from low oil prices [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In the futures market, polyolefins experienced a slight increase, with LLDPE09 contract closing at 7046 yuan/ton, up 0.51%, and PP09 contract closing at 7029 yuan/ton, up 0.34% [1] - Styrene showed a slight increase due to cost support, with EB06 contract closing at 7048 yuan/ton, up 1.19% [1] - In the spot market, LLDPE prices ranged from 7270 to 7900 yuan/ton, while PP prices in various regions were between 7050 and 7380 yuan/ton [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - PE supply pressure is increasing, while PP maintenance has slightly alleviated supply pressure; as of April 30, PE operating rate was 81.02% (down 0.14% week-on-week), and PP operating rate was 76.30% (down 0.15% week-on-week) [1] - Downstream demand is seasonally weakening, with oil inventory at 845,000 tons, up 15,000 tons week-on-week; PE trade inventory was 161,150 tons, and PP social trade inventory was 49,250 tons (up 2,850 tons) [1] - Styrene supply is recovering slightly with a weekly operating rate of 69.94% (up 0.88% week-on-week), while demand from three major sectors is declining [1] Group 3: Market Strategy - Polyolefins are expected to experience weak adjustments, with LLDPE support at 6900-6950 yuan/ton and resistance at 7250-7300 yuan/ton; PP support at 6900-6950 yuan/ton and resistance at 7200-7250 yuan/ton [1] - Styrene is anticipated to have limited short-term rebound space, with support at 6750-6800 yuan/ton and resistance at 7350-7400 yuan/ton [1]